The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Real interest rates describe the growth in the real value of the interest on a loan or deposit, adjusted for inflation. Nominal interest rates on the other hand show us the raw interest rate, which is unadjusted for inflation. If the inflation rate in a certain country were zero percent, the real and nominal interest rates would be the same number. As inflation reduces the real value of a loan, however, a positive inflation rate will mean that the nominal interest rate is more likely to be greater than the real interest rate. We can see this in the recent inflationary episode which has taken place in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, with nominal interest rates rising over the course of 2022, but still lagging far behind the rate of inflation, meaning these rate rises register as smaller increases in the real interest rate.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-18 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-07-21 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The enduring discourse regarding the effectiveness of interest rate policy in mitigating inflation within developing economies is characterized by the interplay of structural and supply-side determinants. Moreover, extant academic literature fails to resolve the direction of causality between inflation and interest rates. Nevertheless, the prevalent adoption of interest rate-based monetary policies in numerous developing economies raises a fundamental inquiry: What motivates central banks in these nations to consistently espouse this strategy? To address this inquiry, our study leverages wavelet transformation to dissect interest rate and inflation data across a spectrum of frequency scales. This innovative methodology paves the way for a meticulous exploration of the intricate causal interplay between these pivotal macroeconomic variables for twenty-two developing economies using monthly data from 1992 to 2022. Traditional literature on causality tends to focus on short- and long-run timescales, yet our study posits that numerous uncharted time and frequency scales exist between these extremes. These intermediate scales may wield substantial influence over the causal relationship and its direction. Our research thus extends the boundaries of existing causality literature and presents fresh insights into the complexities of monetary policy in developing economies. Traditional wisdom suggests that central banks should raise interest rates to combat inflation. However, our study uncovers a contrasting reality in developing economies. It demonstrates a positive causal link between the policy rate and inflation, where an increase in the central bank’s interest rates leads to an upsurge in price levels. Paradoxically, in response to escalating prices, the central bank continues to heighten the policy rate, thereby perpetuating this cyclical pattern. Given this observed positive causal relationship in developing economies, central banks must explore structural and supply-side factors to break this cycle and regain control over inflation.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Between January 2018 and May 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at *** percent in August 2020 and peaked at *** percent in October 2022. By September 2024, inflation had moderated to *** percent, but the following months saw inflation increase again. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at -* percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to *** percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of **** percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to **** percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at *** percent, which was further reduced to **** percent in May 2025. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at **** percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data was reported at 29.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 29.000 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data is updated monthly, averaging 18.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 34.000 % in Oct 2016 and a record low of 1.000 % in May 1980. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

Replication datasets and codes for "Inflation, Economic Growth and Interest Rates"

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 20 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Household, interest rates and inflation

Inflation Rate in Turkey decreased to 35.05 percent in June from 35.41 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 15 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Standard Deviation data was reported at 2.500 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.500 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Standard Deviation data is updated monthly, averaging 3.200 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to May 2018, with 380 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.900 % in Feb 1980 and a record low of 2.200 % in Apr 1999. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Standard Deviation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data was reported at 2.400 % in Jul 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.600 % for Jun 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data is updated monthly, averaging 2.900 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to Jul 2018, with 382 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.700 % in Feb 1980 and a record low of 2.300 % in Dec 2016. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

Brazil's inflation rate and central bank interest rate have experienced significant fluctuations from 2018 to 2025, reflecting broader global economic trends. The country's inflation peaked at ***** percent in April 2020, followed by a gradual decline and subsequent rise, while the central bank adjusted its Selic rate in response to these economic dynamics. This pattern of volatility and monetary policy adjustments mirrors similar experiences in other major economies during the same period. Global context of inflation and interest rates Brazil's economic indicators align with the global trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses observed in many countries. Like Brazil, other major economies such as the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-2023 to combat inflationary pressures. However, a coordinated shift began in mid-2024, with many central banks initiating rate cuts. This global trend is reflected in Brazil's monetary policy decisions, as the country began reducing its Selic rate in August 2023 after maintaining it at ***** percent for several months. Comparison with other economies While Brazil's inflation rate reached **** percent in April 2025, other major economies exhibited varying levels of inflationary pressure. For instance, China reported a deflationary rate of **** percent, while Russia maintained a high inflation rate of **** percent during the same period. The United Kingdom, which experienced similar volatility in its inflation rate, saw it peak at *** percent in October 2022 before moderating to *** percent by September 2024. These comparisons highlight the diverse economic conditions and policy responses across different countries, with Brazil's experience falling somewhere in the middle of this spectrum.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data was reported at 3.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data is updated monthly, averaging 4.000 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to May 2018, with 380 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.000 % in Jul 1982 and a record low of 1.000 % in Nov 2017. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

This spreadsheet contains data downloaded from the European Central Bank website: https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/intelligentsearch/

The columns of data in this spreadsheet were chosen by John Simister, for a paper submitted to 'SN Busines & Economics' journal in April 2023, written by John Simister and Dimitrios Syrrakos.

The data in this spreadsheet are made available to the public by the European Central Bank: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/services/using-our-site/disclaimer/html/index.en.html

The average for 2023 based on 87 countries was 4.42 percent. The highest value was in Madagascar: 41.3 percent and the lowest value was in Zimbabwe: -73.54 percent. The indicator is available from 1961 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.