This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

As of 2023, geopolitical uncertainty was the event that institutional investors worldwide expected to have the largest impact on investment performance over the next twelve months. In fact, ** percent of the respondents were concerned with the influence of this type of event on their portfolio's investment performance in the next 12 months. Rising inflation followed closely in ****** place with ** percent.

About Dataset

https://www.tbsnews.net/sites/default/files/styles/big_2/public/images/2021/03/12/inflation_1.jpg" alt="Inflation hits nine-year high in June | undefined">###

Global Energy, Food, Consumer, and Producer Price Inflation: A Comprehensive Dataset for Understanding Economic Trends

Key Concepts:

1. Energy Consumer Price Inflation data.
2. Food Consumer Price Inflation data.
3. Headline Consumer Price Inflation data.
4. Official Core Consumer Price Inflation data.
5. Producer Price Inflation data.
6. 206 Countries name, Country code and IMF code.
7. 52 Years data from 1970 to 2022.

The global economy is highly complex, and understanding economic trends and patterns is crucial for making informed decisions about investments, policies, and more. One key factor that impacts the economy is inflation, which refers to the rate at which prices increase over time. The Global Energy, Food, Consumer, and Producer Price Inflation dataset provides a comprehensive collection of inflation rates across 206 countries from 1970 to 2022, covering four critical sectors of the economy.

Finally, the Global Producer Price Inflation dataset provides a detailed look at price changes at the producer level, providing insights into supply chain dynamics and trends. This data can be used to make informed decisions about investments in various sectors of the economy and to develop effective policies to manage producer price inflation.

In conclusion, the Global Energy, Food, Consumer, and Producer Price Inflation dataset provides a comprehensive resource for understanding economic trends and patterns across 206 countries. By examining this data, analysts can gain insights into the complex factors that impact the economy and make informed decisions about investments, policies, and more.

Potential User:

1. Economists and economic researchers
2. Policy makers and government officials
3. Investors and financial analysts
4. Agricultural researchers and policymakers
5. Energy analysts and policy makers
6. Food industry professionals
7. Business leaders and decision makers
8. Academics and students in economics, finance, and related fields

Acknowledgements:

The data were collected from the official website of worldbank.org

Core consumer prices in the United States increased 3 percent in September of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United States Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This panel dataset contains quarterly series on inflation targets, bands, and track records for 41 inflation targeting countries from 1990 to 2024. Data on inflation targets and bands are collected through each central bank’s historical documents and rules-based track record measures are calculated by the author to assess actual inflation outcomes with respect to the central banks’ stated policy objectives. The dataset supports research work in Zhang (2025), Zhang and Wang (2022), and Zhang (2021). Please cite the papers when using the data.

Z. Zhang, Does inflation targeting track record matter for asset prices? Evidence from stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Volume 101, 2025, 102141. Z. Zhang, S. Wang, Do actions speak louder than words? Assessing the effects of inflation targeting track records on macroeconomic performance, 2022, IMF Working Papers 2022/227.
Z. Zhang, Stock returns and inflation redux: An explanation from monetary policy in advanced and emerging markets, 2021, IMF Working Papers 2021/219.

The average market yield on the United States Treasury's 10-year bond was **** percent during the second quarter of 2024. This rate was adjusted to reflect a constant maturity and also indexed to inflation, giving an idea of real returns for longer-term investments. The recent expected return was highest at the end of the end of the last quarter of 2024, and lowest in the second half of 2021, when it was negative.

Pretax-Margin Time Series for Japan Real Estate Investment Corp. Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation (the "Company") was established on May 11, 2001 pursuant to Japan's Act on Investment Trusts and Investment Corporations ("ITA"). The Company was listed on the real estate investment trust market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange ("TSE") on September 10, 2001 (Securities Code: 8952). Since its IPO, the size of the Company's assets (total acquisition price) has grown steadily, expanding from 92.8 billion yen to 1,167.7 billion yen as of March 31, 2025. Over the same period, the Company's portfolio has also increased from 20 properties to 77 properties. During the March 2025 period (October 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025), the Japanese economy continued to demonstrate a gradual recovery, despite some lingering stagnation in capital investment and personal consumption due to inflation and other factors. On the other hand, given the policy rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the shift in global interest rates to a lowering phase, the impact of U.S. policy trends, such as trade policy and other factors, interest rate trends, overseas political and economic developments, and price trends, including resource prices, will continue to bear watching. In the office leasing market, demand continues to grow for leases driven by business expansion and relocations aimed at improving location. As a result, the vacancy rate in central Tokyo continues to decline gradually. In addition, rent levels are rising at an accelerating rate. In light of the prevailing conditions in the leasing market, the Company is striving to attract new tenants through strategic leasing activities and to further enhance the satisfaction level of existing tenants by adding value to its portfolio properties with the aim of maintaining and improving the occupancy rate and realizing sustainable income growth across the entire portfolio. In the real estate trading market, despite the Bank of Japan normalizing its monetary policy, the appetite for property acquisition among both domestic and foreign investors remains firm, backed ma

Global life and health carriers have experienced major revenue swings in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic depressed life insurance demand but boosted health insurance uptake and spending, ultimately leading to a rise in revenue in 2020. The economic recovery pushed incomes up in 2021, while high inflation and plunging stock prices led to a substantial drop in revenue in 2022. Interest rate hikes in many countries from 2022 to 2024 enhanced recessionary fears, hindering downstream demand for life and health insurance products. However, investment income surged due to higher returns on fixed income securities. This factor, along with spiking stock prices, fostered revenue growth in 2023 and 2024. As rate cuts have taken place since 2024, downstream demand is set to rise, but investment income is expected to fall, encouraging insurers to recalibrate their operations in this new environment. Amid these short-term shifts, insurers have been impacted by various long-term trends. Private health insurance demand has soared worldwide as aging populations, higher incomes and breakthroughs in costly treatments have driven healthcare spending upward. Meanwhile, consolidation among some insurers has reduced the number of locations, though strong long-term demand has raised entry into the industry, boosting internal competition. At the same time, digitization and AI are making firms more efficient and widening the gap between big and small carriers, with tech-savvy giants offering deeply personalized products and better customer loyalty. Overall, revenue for life and health insurance carriers worldwide has crept upward at a CAGR of 0.7% over the past five years, reaching $6.5 trillion in 2025. This includes a 2.7% increase in revenue in that year. Providers will face a slew of new opportunities and challenges moving forward. Recent US tariffs in 2025 have driven up consumer prices and enhanced financial stress in many countries, threatening economic growth and causing households to cut spending on life and health insurance products. While revenue growth may slow in the near term, long-term forecasts remain positive as the global economy recovers, employment rises and disposable incomes increase, supporting renewed demand for insurance products. Rising incomes among younger adults, especially in lower-income countries, and global aging trends are reshaping insurance demand. Insurers are now targeting tech-savvy new generations with digital platforms, while also developing tailored retirement products for a surging older population. Concurrently, greater regulations will heighten operational complexity and raise compliance and labor costs for insurers, putting some downward pressure on profit. Overall, revenue for global life and health insurance carriers is forecast to climb at a CAGR of 2.5% in the next five years, reaching $7.3 trillion in 2030.

Dividend-Per-Share Time Series for Japan Real Estate Investment Corp. Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation (the "Company") was established on May 11, 2001 pursuant to Japan's Act on Investment Trusts and Investment Corporations ("ITA"). The Company was listed on the real estate investment trust market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange ("TSE") on September 10, 2001 (Securities Code: 8952). Since its IPO, the size of the Company's assets (total acquisition price) has grown steadily, expanding from 92.8 billion yen to 1,167.7 billion yen as of March 31, 2025. Over the same period, the Company's portfolio has also increased from 20 properties to 77 properties. During the March 2025 period (October 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025), the Japanese economy continued to demonstrate a gradual recovery, despite some lingering stagnation in capital investment and personal consumption due to inflation and other factors. On the other hand, given the policy rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the shift in global interest rates to a lowering phase, the impact of U.S. policy trends, such as trade policy and other factors, interest rate trends, overseas political and economic developments, and price trends, including resource prices, will continue to bear watching. In the office leasing market, demand continues to grow for leases driven by business expansion and relocations aimed at improving location. As a result, the vacancy rate in central Tokyo continues to decline gradually. In addition, rent levels are rising at an accelerating rate. In light of the prevailing conditions in the leasing market, the Company is striving to attract new tenants through strategic leasing activities and to further enhance the satisfaction level of existing tenants by adding value to its portfolio properties with the aim of maintaining and improving the occupancy rate and realizing sustainable income growth across the entire portfolio. In the real estate trading market, despite the Bank of Japan normalizing its monetary policy, the appetite for property acquisition among both domestic and foreign investors remains firm, backed ma

The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is normally a triennial cross-sectional survey of U.S. families. The survey data include information on families' balance sheets, pensions, income, and demographic characteristics.

In October 2025, the monthly inflation rate in China ranged at 0.2 percent compared to the same month in the previous year. Inflation had peaked at 2.8 percent in September 2022, but eased thereafter. The annual average inflation rate in China ranged at 0.2 percent in 2024. China’s inflation in comparison The term inflation means the devaluation of money caused by a permanent increase of the price level for products such as consumer or investment goods. The inflation rate is most commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index shows the price development for private expenses based on a basket of products representing the consumption of an average consumer household. Compared to other major economies in the world, China has a moderate and stable level of inflation. The inflation in China is on average lower than in other BRIC countries, although China enjoys higher economic growth rates. Inflation rates of developed regions in the world had for a long time been lower than in China, but that picture changed fundamentally during the coronavirus pandemic with most developed countries experiencing quickly rising consumer prices. Regional inflation rates in China In China, there is a regional difference in inflation rates. As of May 2025, Shaanxi province experienced the highest CPI growth, while Guangxi reported the lowest. In recent years, inflation rates in rural areas have often been slightly higher than in the cities. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, inflation was mainly fueled by a surge in prices for food and micellaneous items and services in recent months. The price gain in other sectors was comparatively slight. Transport prices have decreased recently, but had grown significantly in 2021 and 2022.

The global stock market demonstrates a robust growth trajectory, poised for significant expansion in the coming decade. Projections indicate the market will surge from approximately $9.55 trillion in 2021 to over $23.85 trillion by 2033, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.926%. This growth is underpinned by strong corporate earnings, technological advancements in trading, and increasing participation from retail investors. While North America currently dominates in terms of market size, the Asia-Pacific region is emerging as the fastest-growing hub, driven by the burgeoning economies of India and China. Factors such as monetary policies, geopolitical stability, and regulatory environments will continue to be pivotal in shaping regional market dynamics and overall global performance.

Key strategic insights from our comprehensive analysis reveal:

The Asia-Pacific region is the primary growth engine for the global stock market, exhibiting the highest CAGR of 9.112%, with nations like India and China leading this rapid expansion.
North America, particularly the United States, will maintain its position as the largest market by value, commanding a significant share of the global total, despite a slightly more moderate growth rate compared to APAC.
There is a consistent and broad-based growth trend across all major global regions, indicating widespread investor confidence and economic recovery, though the pace of expansion varies, highlighting diverse investment opportunities and risks.

Global Market Overview & Dynamics of Stock Market Analysis The global stock market is on a path of sustained and significant growth, driven by a confluence of economic, technological, and social factors. The market is forecast to expand from $9.55 trillion in 2021 to nearly $23.86 trillion by 2033. This expansion reflects growing global wealth, increased corporate profitability, and the continuous innovation in financial technologies that makes investing more accessible. However, this growth is not without its challenges, as markets must navigate through geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and evolving regulatory landscapes that can introduce volatility and uncertainty.

Global Stock Market Drivers

Favorable Economic Conditions: Broad-based global GDP growth, coupled with supportive monetary policies from central banks in major economies, stimulates corporate investment and boosts earnings, attracting investors to equity markets.
Technological Innovation and Accessibility: The proliferation of online trading platforms, robo-advisors, and mobile investing apps has democratized access to stock markets, leading to a surge in retail investor participation.
Corporate Profitability and IPO Activity: Strong and resilient corporate earnings growth, along with a healthy pipeline of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) from innovative companies, continually injects fresh capital and opportunities into the market.

Global Stock Market Trends

Rise of ESG Investing: There is a rapidly growing trend of investors integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria into their investment decisions, pushing companies to adopt more sustainable practices.
Increased Focus on Emerging Markets: Investors are increasingly allocating capital to emerging markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and South American regions, in pursuit of higher growth potential compared to more mature markets.
Growth of Passive Investing: The shift towards passive investment strategies, such as index funds and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), continues to gain momentum due to their lower costs and broad market exposure.

Global Stock Market Restraints

Geopolitical Instability and Trade Disputes: International conflicts, trade wars, and political uncertainty can disrupt global supply chains, dampen investor sentiment, and lead to significant market volatility.
Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes: Persistent inflationary pressures force central banks to raise interest rates, which increases borrowing costs for companies and can make less risky assets like bonds more attractive relative to stocks.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Complexity: Stricter regulations on financial markets, data privacy, and corporate governance can increase compliance costs and limit certain market activities, potentially hindering growth.

Strategic Recommendations for Manufacturers

Prioritize market entry and expansion s...

Online stock brokerages continue to generate steady growth, as the proliferation of digital technology coincided with broader economic stabilization that incentivized investors to leave traditional brokers and started trading online. Despite significant economic volatility at the onset of the period, brokers endured revenue growth as more investors made trades amid market volatility. Increased discretionary spending fueled a significant decline in the personal savings rate and led to a rise in young investors through online brokerages, causing total trading volume and internet traffic to skyrocket. In recent years, growth has been curtailed by the effects of high inflation, which cut consumers' propensity to invest. Nonetheless, the continued growth in equity markets, such as the S&P 500, fueled strong broker success, with revenue rising at a CAGR of 3.7% to $14.6 billion over the past five years, including an estimated 4.3% jump in the current year. Stabilizing operational costs and trading volumes have also cemented brokers’ profit margin. Industry profit has climbed during the current period and will comprise 12.3% of revenue in the current year. While online brokerage services were growing, players sought to expand their offerings to gain new customers and sway existing traders from other firms. In doing so, firms ramped up merger and acquisition (M&A) activity to offer advanced trading platforms and the ability to trade a diversified list of securities. One of the major acquisitions in the current period was Charles Schwab Corporation's acquisition of TD Ameritrade. Companies also engaged in heavy price competition to acquire new customers. Moving forward, online stock brokers are expected to continue growing, as the expected stabilization of global economic conditions will dampen market volatility. The improving economic environment will allow consumers greater flexibility in online trading while the stock market grows in value and uncertain conditions wane. Brokerages will continue to innovate their platforms via the provision of new trading capabilities like fractional investing, while higher engagement in price competition, aiming to gain and retain customers. At the same time, expected growth in internet traffic volume and the S&P 500 will serve as good accelerants for demand for online brokerage. Over the next five years, revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% to $17.0 billion over the five years to 2030.

The average market risk premium in the United States remained at *** percent in 2025. This suggests that the returns that investors expected for their investrments remained the same as the previous year in that country, in exchange for the risk they are exposed to. This premium has hovered between *** and *** percent since 2011. What causes country-specific risk? Risk to investments come from two main sources. First, inflation causes an asset’s price to decrease in real terms. A 100 U.S. dollar investment with three percent inflation is only worth ** U.S. dollars after one year. Investors are also interested in risks of project failure or non-performing loans. The unique U.S. context Analysts have historically considered the United States Treasury to be risk-free. This view has been shifting, but many advisors continue to use treasury yield rates as a risk-free rate. Given the fact that U.S. government securities are available at a variety of terms, this gives investment managers a range of tools for predicting future market developments.

France's Third-Party Real Estate Activities industry thrives on economic drivers like consumer and business sentiment, the number of property transactions and house prices. Interest rates also play a crucial role in shaping market conditions and the number of property transactions, as the majority of residential and commercial transactions are funded by mortgages and loans. Fluctuating economic conditions have created volatility in industry performance in recent years. Industry revenue is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 1% over the five years through 2025, including a 2.6% hike in 2025 to reach €20.6 billion. A post-pandemic rebound saw property transactions soar, benefitting estate agents in 2021. Low mortgage rates and government schemes like interest-free loans bolstered property sales, reaching a record 1.2 million home transactions in August 2021, according to data from Notaires de France. However, by 2023, soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions cooled the real estate market. The surge in interest rates made mortgages more expensive and significantly reduced property transactions to a low not seen since 2017. Estate agents pivoted strategies to focus on recurring revenues like property management amid declining transaction-driven income. The adverse economic climate also deterred investment and activity in the commercial real estate market, further restricting revenue for estate agents and property management companies. Nevertheless, a resilient residential rental market has supported industry demand. Despite easing inflation and lower interest rates, prevailing uncertainty and political instability in France have subdued consumer and business confidence, weakening activity in the residential and commercial real estate segments. This is constraining industry revenue and profit growth over the two years through 2025. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 2.7% over the five years through 2030 to €23.6 billion. Improving economic conditions, as inflation and interest rates drop, are set to spur a hike in house prices and residential property transactions. This, alongside a recovering commercial real estate market amid improving business sentiment and investment in expansionary activity, will swell demand for estate agents and property management companies. Evolving client preferences towards sustainability and flexible workspaces will push companies to innovate their offerings to keep up. More and more companies will invest in technology, including AI, blockchain and virtual reality, to boost efficiency and enhance the services provided to clients, who increasingly seek digital, data-driven solutions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is (DJIA) is possibly the most well-known and commonly used stock index in the United States. It is a price-weighted index that assesses the stock prices of 30 prominent companies, whose combined prices are then divided by a regularly-updated divisor (0.15199 in February 2021), which gives the index value. The companies included are rotated in and out on a regular basis; as of mid-2022, the longest mainstay on the list is Procter & Gamble, which was added in 1932; whereas Amgen, Salesforce, and Honeywell were all added in 2020. As one of the oldest indices for stock market analysis, the impact of major events, recessions, and economic shocks or booms can be tracked and contextualized over longer periods of time.

Due to inflation, unadjusted figures appear to be more sporadic in recent years, however the greatest fluctuations came in the earliest years of the index. In the given period, the greatest decline came in the wake of the Wall Street Crash in 1929; by 1932 average values had fallen to just one fifth of their 1929 average, from roughly 314 to 65.

This statistic shows the average inflation rate in South Korea from 1985 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the average inflation rate in South Korea amounted to about 2.32 percent compared to the previous year. For further info, see the South Korean GDP. South Korea's low inflation High rates of inflation are undesireable, just like low rates, and South Korea is currently struggling with the latter. South Korea is actually an affluent country and currently ranks 11th on the list of the 20 countries with the largest GDP, but its inflation rate is subject to concern, as it is currently at levels below 2 percent. However, there is still hope that inflation will return to stable rates between 3 and 4.5 percent in the next few years, and there are also signs that consumer confidence is rising after two years of weak economic growth and sluggish domestic consumption and investment. The unemployment rate remains low with levels staying in the range of 3 percent - close to full employment – yet there are still obstacles including an aging population and a heavy reliance on exports. At present, South Korea is attempting to balance its reliance on exports by expanding the service industry, especially as the export market slows.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2025, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

For the past few years, Sri Lanka’s economy has been thriving. Gross domestic product is soaring, and despite the densely populated country being among the smallest in the Asia Pacific region, its GDP per capita is not – it has almost doubled over the past decade. Sri Lanka’s inflation rate has been through the wringer, however: From around seven percent in 2013 to a sudden slump to around two percent in 2015 with a rapid upturn and peak at 6.5 percent in 2017 again. The slump in 2015 is mainly due to the country amassing national debt, which is soaring just as much as GDP. Sri Lanka has been spending so much money on developing its infrastructure, it needed help from the International Monetary Fund.

Bailed out

The International Monetary Fund does not just bail a country out frivolously, although Sri Lanka is by far not the only one requesting financial aid. Other countries have turned to the IMF for help in the past, the most famous example of asking for a bailout is Greece, which still struggles with the consequences of economic turmoil, austerity, and debt years later. Bailout money comes with terms and conditions, since it is a temporary solution to facilitate resolving an economic crisis. Often, one of these conditions is that countries take matters into their own hands and do everything they can to avoid further crises and to help get themselves out of debt.

Maxing out the cards

Sri Lanka has been living above its means, but prognoses look promising. Inflation is expected to level off around five percent, as is government expenditure at around 20 percent of GDP. Debt is still rising, of course, but trade seems in good shape, as well, with exports increasing, lowering the trade deficit. All in all, it looks like investing in infrastructure may pay off after all.

Retail properties had the highest capitalization rates in the United States in 2023, followed by offices. The cap rate for office real estate was **** percent in the fourth quarter of the year and was forecast to rise further to **** percent in 2024. Cap rates measure the expected rate of return on investment, and show the net operating income of a property as a percentage share of the current asset value. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it also suggests a higher risk. Why have cap rates increased? The increase in cap rates is a consequence of a repricing in the commercial real estate sector. According to the National NCREIF Property Return Index, prices for commercial real estate declined across all property types in 2023. Rental growth was slow during the same period, resulting in a negative annual return. The increase in cap rates reflects the increased risk in the investment environment. Pricing uncertainty in the commercial real estate sector Between 2014 and 2021, commercial property prices in the U.S. enjoyed steady growth. Access to credit with low interest rates facilitated economic growth and real estate investment. As inflation surged in the following two years, lending policy tightened. That had a significant effect on the sector. First, it worsened sentiment among occupiers. Second, it led to a decline in demand for commercial spaces and commercial real estate investment volumes. Uncertainty about the future development of interest rates and occupier demand further contributed to the repricing of real estate assets.