The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food and Energy Inflation Rate, Range, High (JCXFERH) from 2025 to 2027 about core, projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

In January 2025, prices had increased by three percent compared to January 2024 according to the 12-month percentage change in the consumer price index — the monthly inflation rate for goods and services in the United States. The data represents U.S. city averages. In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of the change in price level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. A projection of the annual U.S. inflation rate can be accessed here and the actual annual inflation rate since 1990 can be accessed here. InflationOne of the most important economic indicators is the development of the Consumer Price Index in a country. The change in this price level of goods and services is defined as the rate of inflation. The inflationary situation in the United States had been relatively severe in 2022 due to global events relating to COVID-19, supply chain restrains, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More information on U.S. inflation may be found on our dedicated topic page. The annual inflation rate in the United States has increased from 3.2 percent in 2011 to 8.3 percent in 2022. This means that the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has weakened in recent years. The purchasing power is the extent to which a person has available funds to make purchases. According to the data published by the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about 258.84 in 2020 and is forecasted to grow up to 325.6 by 2027, compared to the base period from 1982 to 1984. The monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban consumers in the United States was 0.1 percent in March 2023 compared to the previous month. In 2022, countries all around the world are experienced high levels of inflation. Although Brazil already had an inflation rate of 8.3 percent in 2021, compared to the previous year, while the inflation rate in China stood at 0.85 percent.

The statistic shows the inflation rate in India from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2023, the inflation rate in India was around 5.36 percent compared to the previous year. See figures on India's economic growth for additional information. India's inflation rate and economy Inflation is generally defined as the increase of prices of goods and services over a certain period of time, as opposed to deflation, which describes a decrease of these prices. Inflation is a significant economic indicator for a country. The inflation rate is the rate at which the general rise in the level of prices, goods and services in an economy occurs and how it affects the cost of living of those living in a particular country. It influences the interest rates paid on savings and mortgage rates but also has a bearing on levels of state pensions and benefits received. A 4 percent increase in the rate of inflation in 2011 for example would mean an individual would need to spend 4 percent more on the goods he was purchasing than he would have done in 2010. India’s inflation rate has been on the rise over the last decade. However, it has been decreasing slightly since 2010. India’s economy, however, has been doing quite well, with its GDP increasing steadily for years, and its national debt decreasing. The budget balance in relation to GDP is not looking too good, with the state deficit amounting to more than 9 percent of GDP.

United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Median: Y3 data was reported at 2.000 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.000 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Median: Y3 data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.100 % in Dec 2022 and a record low of 2.000 % in Dec 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Median: Y3 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I032: PCE Price Index: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

The inflation rate in East Africa was estimated at 40.7 percent in 2021.. According to the source, the growth in price levels occurred mainly due to a rise in oil prices and the Russia - Ukraine war, which led to an increase in energy inflation.

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.10 percent in February from 3 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.600 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.200 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.250 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in Dec 2022 and a record low of 2.100 % in Sep 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I036: PCE Price Index: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

According to latest figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the average annual inflation rate in China ranged at around 0.2 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year. This was lower than formerly expected by the IMF. For 2025, projections by the IMF published in October 2024 expected the inflation rate to reach around 1.7 percent. The monthly inflation rate in China dropped to negative values in the second half of 2023 and remained comparatively low in 2024. Calculation of inflation The inflation rate is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for China. The CPI is computed using a product basket that contains a predefined range of products and services on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. Included are expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities, and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. The product basked is adjusted every five years to reflect changes in consumer preference and has been updated in 2020 for the last time. The inflation rate is then calculated using changes in the CPI. As the inflation of a country is seen as a key economic indicator, it is frequently used for international comparison. China's inflation in comparison Among the main industrialized and emerging economies worldwide, China displayed comparatively low inflation in 2023 and 2024. In previous years, China's inflation ranged marginally above the inflation rates of established industrialized powerhouses such as the United States or the European Union. However, this changed in 2021, as inflation rates in developed countries rose quickly, while prices in China only increased moderately. According to IMF estimates for 2024, Zimbabwe was expected to be the country with the highest inflation rate, with a consumer price increase of about 561 percent compared to 2023. In 2023, Turkmenistan had the lowest price increase worldwide with prices actually decreasing by about 1.7 percent.

In 2023, the U.S. Consumer Price Index was 309.42, and is projected to increase to 352.27 by 2029. The base period was 1982-84. The monthly CPI for all urban consumers in the U.S. can be accessed here. After a time of high inflation, the U.S. inflation rateis projected fall to two percent by 2027. United States Consumer Price Index ForecastIt is projected that the CPI will continue to rise year over year, reaching 325.6 in 2027. The Consumer Price Index of all urban consumers in previous years was lower, and has risen every year since 1992, except in 2009, when the CPI went from 215.30 in 2008 to 214.54 in 2009. The monthly unadjusted Consumer Price Index was 296.17 for the month of August in 2022. The U.S. CPI measures changes in the price of consumer goods and services purchased by households and is thought to reflect inflation in the U.S. as well as the health of the economy. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the CPI and defines it as, "a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services." The BLS records the price of thousands of goods and services month by month. They consider goods and services within eight main categories: food and beverage, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education, and other goods and services. They aggregate the data collected in order to compare how much it would cost a consumer to buy the same market basket of goods and services within one month or one year compared with the previous month or year. Given that the CPI is used to calculate U.S. inflation, the CPI influences the annual adjustments of many financial institutions in the United States, both private and public. Wages, social security payments, and pensions are all affected by the CPI.

Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 30%: Maximum: June IR data was reported at 3.800 % in Dec 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.000 % for Sep 2023. Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 30%: Maximum: June IR data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.100 % from Jun 2021 (Median) to Dec 2023, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.500 % in Jun 2021 and a record low of 3.700 % in Sep 2022. Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 30%: Maximum: June IR data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Inflation – Table BR.IH002: Conditional Projections.

Inflation in the Euro currency area, which hit a peak of 10.6 percent in October 2022, is set to continue to fall in 2025. Economic forecasts predict that the HICP inflation rate will range between 2.2 percent and 2 percent over the year. This sustained decrease follows a downward trend that began in 2024 when inflation settled at .2.4 percent.

This statistic shows the average inflation rate in Indonesia from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. In 2023, the average inflation rate in Indonesia amounted to about 3.71 percent compared to the previous year.

The global financial crisis and economic consequences

The global economy underwent a drastic slump due to the global financial crisis in 2008, which caused a continued increase in the general level of prices of goods and services; the highest recorded global inflation of the past decade took place in 2008, when the global inflation rate increased by more than 6.4 percent in comparison with the previous year. As for Indonesia, the country's inflation rate amounted to around 9.8 percent in comparison to the previous year.

The financial crisis also impacted the global unemployment rate. In 2009, the global unemployment rate jumped to around 6.2 percent, and it is not expected to recover to pre-crisis levels anytime soon. The financial crisis impact on the Indonesian economy was slightly more severe: In 2008, the unemployment rate in Indonesia was around 8.4 percent, much higher than the global unemployment rate for the same year. It has, however, now decreased significantly, even though it is still not below the global level, the country itself has reached lower levels than before the crisis.

After the financial crisis, the Indonesian government implemented several economic reforms and increased exports in order to strengthen the economy. In 2011, Indonesia exported goods with a value of more than 200 billion U.S. dollars. The main export partners of Indonesia are Japan, China and Singapore. As a result of increased exports, the Indonesian economy was able to grow, making Indonesia one of the twenty nations in the world with the largest gross domestic product in 2015.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic was projected to affect Ghana's rate of inflation. The inflation rate was estimated at 8.5 percent for 2020 and 7.5 percent for 2021, before the outbreak of the virus. However, due to the pandemic, inflation projections in the country amounted to 11.2 percent and 9.3 percent for 2020 and 2021, respectively (under a baseline scenario). Furthermore, on the assumption that the COVID-19 pandemic got even worse, the rate of inflation was revised at 12.7 percent and 10.6 percent. It can therefore be seen that the studied impact was estimated to increase both under baseline and worst-case scenarios of COVID-19. Overall, on August 1, 2020, the highest daily increase in cases was recorded in Ghana.

Brazil Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 50%: Maximum: June IR data was reported at 4.100 % in Dec 2026. This stayed constant from the previous number of 4.100 % for Sep 2026. Brazil Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 50%: Maximum: June IR data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.600 % from Jun 2021 (Median) to Dec 2026, with 23 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.100 % in Jun 2022 and a record low of 3.300 % in Jun 2023. Brazil Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 50%: Maximum: June IR data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Inflation – Table BR.IB013: Consumer Price Index: Broad Category - IPCA: Projection: Probability Intervals: Selic Scenario.

In November 2024, the chained consumer price index for all urban consumers (C-CPI-U) in the United States decreased by 0.1 percent from the preceding month. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was January 1999=100. The chain weighted CPI incorporates the average changes in the quantity of goods purchased, along with standard pricing effects. This allows the chain weighted CPI to reflect situations where customers shift the weight of their purchases from one area of spending to another. A projection of the annual inflation rate of the country can be accessed here and the actual annual inflation rate since 1990 can be accessed here.

In 2019, the average inflation rate in Thailand amounted to about 0.71 percent compared to the previous year, when it was just recovering from a slump below the 0-percent-mark in 2015.

Political turmoil begets economic turmoil

In 2014, after a coup d’etat following months of political crisis, the Thai military took over the country, and the senate and government were dissolved. As a result, Thailand’s economy experienced a sudden downturn, GDP growth and inflation slumped, while unemployment, which is usually delayed in reflecting economic struggles, has been increasing ever since.

Services help stabilization

Apart from the struggles in recent years, Thailand’s economy as a whole is quite stable. Its main GDP generator is the services sector , which includes tourism and telecommunications, and which has shown a stable real GDP growth for the past few years. The new military government also wants to boost the economy further by focusing on high-tech industries and services, with the goal of making Thailand a high-income nation with an economic focus on innovation and growth.

Brazil Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 30%: Maximum: September IR data was reported at 3.600 % in Dec 2026. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.600 % for Sep 2026. Brazil Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 30%: Maximum: September IR data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.400 % from Sep 2021 (Median) to Dec 2026, with 22 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.300 % in Sep 2021 and a record low of 3.500 % in Sep 2025. Brazil Inflation Projection and Probability Intervals: Selic Focus and PPP Exchange Rate: 30%: Maximum: September IR data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Inflation – Table BR.IB013: Consumer Price Index: Broad Category - IPCA: Projection: Probability Intervals: Selic Scenario.

The inflation rate in Germany was 1.35 percent in 2019. The current rate meets the European Central Bank’s target rate, which is “below, but close to, 2 percent.” Many central bankers favor inflation between 2 and 3 percent, but Germans in particular would rather risk deflation than too much inflation.

Causes of inflation

Central bankers like low, stable inflation because this is a sign of a growing economy. When the economy grows, workers become more productive and spend more, and prices slowly rise. Monetary policy can cause inflation, but Germany has given this responsibility to the European Central Bank (ECB). Importantly, inflation expectations affect inflation, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The German context

During the eurozone crisis, German politicians were advocating for the ECB to raise interest rates quickly. This would have reduced inflation, possibly causing deflation, but would have presented another hurdle for the struggling Greek economy. This is because of the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, when Germans carried their pay home in wheelbarrows because the banknotes had lost so much value. Ever since, Germans often warn that inflation harms pensioners and that personal provisions are necessary in any case. Fortunately for them, this statistic forecasts stable, modest inflation that does not alarm many economists.

The aim is to forecast the chief components of inflation (such as changes in fuel prices, food prices and prices of durable goods) for the USA, UK and South Africa, and to test whether the weighted sum of the component forecasts gives a more accurate overall forecast for inflation, than simply forecasting overall inflation itself. In the long run, the ratios of these prices to the overall consumer price index have altered because of technological changes and globalization, among other factors. For example, the prices of internationally traded consumer goods have fallen relative to prices of services. By building separate models for the components, the long-run information in the data and specific economic features likely to drive each component can be exploited. These models will test for asymmetries, such as the tendency of petrol prices to respond faster to rises than to falls in oil prices. The models should help better understand the causes of overall inflation through understanding the inflation trends of the underlying sectors. Modelling the components separately should also highlight where interest rate policy could be effective, and where other policies such as competition policy or price regulation might have complementary benefits.