29 datasets found
  1. U

    Inflation Data

    • dataverse.unc.edu
    • dataverse-staging.rdmc.unc.edu
    Updated Oct 9, 2022
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    UNC Dataverse (2022). Inflation Data [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.15139/S3/QA4MPU
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    Dataset updated
    Oct 9, 2022
    Dataset provided by
    UNC Dataverse
    License

    CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedicationhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

  2. Volcker Shock: federal funds, unemployment and inflation rates 1979-1987

    • statista.com
    Updated Sep 2, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Volcker Shock: federal funds, unemployment and inflation rates 1979-1987 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1338105/volcker-shock-interest-rates-unemployment-inflation/
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    Dataset updated
    Sep 2, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    1979 - 1987
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

    Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

    Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

    The legacy of the Volcker Shock

    By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

  3. o

    Data and Code for: State Dependent Government Spending Multipliers: Downward...

    • openicpsr.org
    delimited
    Updated Jan 15, 2024
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    Yoon Joo Jo; Sarah Zubairy (2024). Data and Code for: State Dependent Government Spending Multipliers: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.3886/E197641V1
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    delimitedAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jan 15, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    American Economic Association
    Authors
    Yoon Joo Jo; Sarah Zubairy
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1963 - Dec 2019
    Area covered
    US States, United States
    Description

    In a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR), we show that government spending is more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation, and consequently for real wages. Using U.S. historical time series data, we provide evidence of larger spending multipliers in low inflation recessions and the importance of the depth of recessions. We also employ cross-sectional data from U.S. states to document supporting evidence on multipliers and our proposed mechanism.

  4. Inflation rate in Venezuela 2026

    • statista.com
    • ai-chatbox.pro
    Updated May 15, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Inflation rate in Venezuela 2026 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/371895/inflation-rate-in-venezuela/
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    Dataset updated
    May 15, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    Venezuela
    Description

    Due to the recent hyperinflation crisis in Venezuela, the average inflation rate in Venezuela is estimated to be around 225 percent in 2026. However, this is well below the peak of 63,000 percent observed in 2018.What is hyperinflation?In short, hyperinflation is a very high inflation rate that accelerates quickly. It can be caused by a government printing huge amounts of new money to pay for its expenses. The subsequent rapid increase of prices causes the country’s currency to lose value and shortages in goods to occur. People then typically start hoarding goods, which become even more scarce and expensive, money becomes worthless, financial institutions go bankrupt, and eventually, the country’s economy collapses. The Venezuelan descent into hyperinflationIn Venezuela, the economic catastrophe began with government price controls and plummeting oil prices, which caused state-run oil companies to go bankrupt. The government then starting printing new money to cope, thus prices rose rapidly, unemployment increased, and GDP collapsed, all of which was exacerbated by international sanctions. Today, many Venezuelans are emigrating to find work and supplies elsewhere, and population growth is at a decade-low. Current president Nicolás Maduro does not seem inclined to steer away from his course of price controls and economic mismanagement, so the standard of living in the country is not expected to improve significantly anytime soon.

  5. Call Centres in Serbia - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Serbia - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/serbia/industry/call-centres/200313/
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Serbia
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  6. Call Centres in Greece - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
    + more versions
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Greece - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/greece/industry/call-centres/200313
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Greece
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  7. Call Centres in Norway - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Norway - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/norway/industry/call-centres/200313
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Norway
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  8. Call Centres in Portugal - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
    + more versions
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Portugal - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/portugal/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Portugal
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  9. Call Centres in Austria - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
    + more versions
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Austria - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/austria/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Austria
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  10. Call Centres in Belgium - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Belgium - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/belgium/industry/call-centres/200313
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Belgium
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  11. Call Centres in Italy - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Italy - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/italy/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Italy
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  12. Call Centres in Switzerland - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
    + more versions
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Switzerland - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/switzerland/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Switzerland
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  13. Call Centres in Spain - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Spain - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/spain/industry/call-centres/200313
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Spain
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  14. Call Centres in Cyprus - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Cyprus - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/cyprus/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Cyprus
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  15. Call Centres in Romania - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Romania - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/romania/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Romania
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  16. Call Centres in Luxembourg - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Luxembourg - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/luxembourg/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Luxembourg
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  17. Call Centres in Estonia - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Estonia - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/estonia/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Estonia
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  18. Call Centres in Poland - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Poland - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/poland/industry/call-centres/200313
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Poland
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  19. Call Centres in Slovakia - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
    + more versions
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Slovakia - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/slovakia/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Slovakia
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

  20. Call Centres in Denmark - Market Research Report (2015-2030)

    • ibisworld.com
    Updated Apr 15, 2024
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    IBISWorld (2024). Call Centres in Denmark - Market Research Report (2015-2030) [Dataset]. https://www.ibisworld.com/denmark/industry/call-centres/200313/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 15, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    IBISWorld
    License

    https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/

    Time period covered
    2014 - 2029
    Area covered
    Denmark
    Description

    Revenue in Europe’s Call Centre Operations industry is anticipated to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.0% to €30.0 billion over the five years through 2024. This is predominately driven by increased usage of chatbots and AI by clients and lacklustre business and consumer sentiment. A growing number of companies are leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and diversify their sources of income, which has resulted in increased demand for call centres. In 2024, revenue is projected to contract by 2.5% as companies remain cautious of inflationary pressures and underperforming consumer and business sentiment. While Eurozone inflation performed better than the European Central Bank initially expected in 2023, inflationary pressures will likely persist through 2024. This will prove difficult for the industry, as clients cut back the number of call centre agents they employ, depleting customer satisfaction with the industry. As business sentiment across Europe picks up, call centres will see profitability challenges due to staff shortages, boosting the need for automation or higher wages. Revenue is estimated to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2029 to €36.0 billion. With the improvement of the Eurozone economy, there will be an uptick in business activity and consumer demand, propelling companies to use more services provided by call centres. Businesses might increase their operations, introduce new products, or outsource work more than before, thereby fostering a greater need for call centres. Profitability will be under fire in the coming years as staff shortages continue, forcing the industry’s hand in significantly increasing automation of its services or raising wages.

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UNC Dataverse (2022). Inflation Data [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.15139/S3/QA4MPU

Inflation Data

Explore at:
Dataset updated
Oct 9, 2022
Dataset provided by
UNC Dataverse
License

CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedicationhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
License information was derived automatically

Description

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

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