As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Graph and download economic data for Inflation Risk Premium (TENEXPCHAINFRISPRE) from Jan 1982 to May 2025 about premium, inflation, and USA.

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.21 percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

his paper presents an equilibrium bond-pricing model that jointly explains the upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves and the violation of the expectations hypothesis. Instead of relying on the inflation risk premium, the ambiguity-averse agent faces different amounts of Knightian uncertainty in the long run versus the short run; hence the model-implied nominal and real short rate expectations are upward-sloping under the agent's worst-case equilibrium beliefs. The expectations hypothesis roughly holds under investors' worst-case beliefs. The difference between the worst-case scenario and the true distribution makes realized excess returns on long-term bonds predictable.

Data and code for peer-reviewed article published in American Economic Review: Insights.

This paper uses extreme value theory to study the implications of skewness risk for nominal loan contracts in a production economy. Productivity and inflation innovations are drawn from generalized extreme value distributions. The model is solved using a third-order perturbation and estimated by the simulated method of moments. Results show that the data reject the hypothesis that innovations are drawn from normal distributions and favor instead the alternative that they are drawn from asymmetric distributions. Estimates indicate that skewness risk accounts for 12% of the risk premia and reduces bond yields by approximately 55 basis points. For a bond that pays 1 dollar at maturity, the adjustment factor associated with skewness risk ranges from 0.15 cents for a 3?month bond to 2.05 cents for a 5?year bond.

Until the 90s information on risk premiums based on empirical studies for the German capital market was only available sporadically and for short time horizons. Therefore a long term comparison of risk and return was not possible. Markus Morawietz investigates profitability and risk of German stock and bond investments since 1870. He takes inflation and tax issues into account. His work contains a comprehensive collection of primary data since 1870 on key figures on a monthly basis which describe the German capital market. The goal of the study is to identify empirical statements on parameters of the German capital market. Therefore the exposition of theoretical economic models is not of primary importance in this study. A special focus is on the potential applicability of existing Germen index numbers as base data on the empirical investigation. The first chapter “methodological bases of performance measurement” concludes with the definition of the term “performance”. The following hypothesis is tested within this study: “There is a risk premium on securities taking inflation and influences of taxes into account.” The test of this hypothesis is run over the longest time period possible. Therefore monthly data on stock and bond investment are subject of the investigation because they are the most actively traded assets. Furthermore a substitute for the risk-free investment was developed in order to determine the risk premium. Before the explicit performance measurement of the different assets takes place, empirical starting points for performance measurement will be defined. These starting points contain a relevant demarcation of the investigation period and a description of the historical events during the investigation periods for all periods. Hereby special consideration is given to the specific problems of long term German value series (interruption trough the First World War with the following Hyperinflation and the Second World War). The analysis of the basics of performance measurement concludes the empirical starting points for performance measurement. The starting points contain the definition of a substitute for the certain segment, the description and preparation of the underlying data material and the calculation method used to determine performance. The third chapter contains a concrete empirical evaluation of the available data. This evaluation is subdivided into two parts: (a) performance measurement with unadjusted original data and (b) performance measurement with adjusted primary data (adjusted for inflation and tax influences). Both parts are structured in the same way. First the performance measurement of the specific asset (stocks, bonds and risk-free instruments) will be undertaken each by itself subdivided by partial periods. Afterwards the results of the performance measurement over the entire investigation period will be analyzed. The collection of derived partial results in the then following chapter shows return risk differences between the different assets. To calculate the net performance the nominal primary data is adjusted by inflation and tax influences. Therefore measured values for the changes in price level and for tax influences will be determined in the beginning of the third chapter. Following the performance measurement will be undertaken with the adjusted primary data. A comparison of the most important results of the different analysis in the last chapter concludes.

Data tables in histat (topic: money and currencies):

A. Discount and Lombard rate A.1 Discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) A.2 Lombard rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

B. Stock price index, dividends and bond market und B.1a Stock price index: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) B.2 Dividends: monthly average values (1870-1992) B.3 Bond market: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

C. Risk free instrument C.1 Private discount rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1991) C.2 Overnight rate: monthly average values, yearly average values (1924-1992)

D. Inflation rate D.1 Price index for costs of living (base1913/14 = 100), monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992) D.2 Inflation rate (base 1913 = 100), M monthly average values, yearly average values (1870-1992)

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.56% on June 6, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points, though it remains 0.05 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield rose to 14.18% on June 6, 2025, marking a 0.18 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.21 points and is 2.30 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

In 2024, the average yearly yield of UK 10-year government bonds was 4.14 percent. The UK 10-year gilt has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2024. Starting at nearly 12 percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of 0.37 percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.36% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.15 points, though it remains 0.15 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Fixed Income Asset Management Market Outlook

The global fixed income asset management market size was valued at approximately USD 5.7 trillion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 9.3 trillion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% over the forecast period. The growth of this market is primarily driven by the increasing demand for stable and predictable returns in an uncertain economic environment.

One of the significant growth factors for the fixed income asset management market is the aging global population. As more individuals approach retirement age, the demand for fixed income investments that offer stable returns and lower risk compared to equities is increasing. Retirees and near-retirees often prioritize capital preservation and income generation, which fixed income products are well-suited to provide. This demographic trend is particularly prominent in developed countries but is also becoming more relevant in emerging markets as their populations age and accumulate wealth.

Another crucial growth driver is the rising interest rate environment. As central banks around the world shift towards tightening monetary policies to combat inflation, interest rates are gradually increasing. Higher interest rates make newly issued bonds more attractive to investors due to their higher yields. This situation creates opportunities for fixed income asset managers to attract new investments and cater to clients looking for better returns in a higher interest rate environment. Additionally, higher yields can enhance the overall performance of fixed income portfolios, making them more appealing to both institutional and retail investors.

The increasing complexity and diversity of fixed income products is also contributing to market growth. The fixed income market has evolved to include a wide range of instruments beyond traditional government and corporate bonds. Products such as mortgage-backed securities, municipal bonds, and various structured financial instruments offer different risk-return profiles and investment opportunities. This diversification allows asset managers to tailor portfolios to meet specific client needs and preferences, thereby attracting a broader investor base. The development of innovative fixed income products continues to drive growth in this market by expanding the range of investment options available.

In the realm of private equity, the PE Fund Management Fee plays a crucial role in shaping the investment landscape. These fees are typically charged by fund managers to cover the operational costs of managing the fund, including research, administration, and portfolio management. The structure of these fees can vary, often comprising a management fee based on the committed capital and a performance fee tied to the fund's returns. Understanding the intricacies of these fees is essential for investors, as they can significantly impact the net returns on their investments. As private equity continues to grow as an asset class, the transparency and justification of management fees are becoming increasingly important to investors seeking to maximize their returns while ensuring alignment of interests with fund managers.

From a regional perspective, North America remains the largest market for fixed income asset management, driven by the presence of a well-established financial industry, a large pool of institutional investors, and a high level of individual wealth. However, the Asia Pacific region is expected to exhibit the highest growth rate during the forecast period. Rapid economic growth, increasing financial literacy, and a burgeoning middle class are driving demand for fixed income investments in countries such as China and India. Additionally, regulatory reforms aimed at developing local bond markets and attracting foreign investment are further propelling the market in this region.

Asset Type Analysis

The fixed income asset management market can be categorized by asset type into government bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and others. Each of these asset types offers unique characteristics and appeals to different segments of investors, contributing to the overall growth and diversification of the market.

Government bonds are one of the most significant segments in the fixed income market. Issued by national governments, these bonds are considered low-risk investments due to the backing of the issuing g

In 2024, the average yield of Italian 10-year government bonds was 3.71 percent, a decrease compared to the previous year. The average yearly yield of Italian 10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1992 to 2024. Starting at over 13 percent in 1992, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of 0.81 percent in 2021. After 2021, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

The global bond fund sales market exhibits robust growth, driven by increasing investor demand for fixed-income securities amidst market volatility and low interest rate environments. The market size in 2025 is estimated at $2.5 trillion, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2019 to 2024. This growth is propelled by several factors: a rising global population nearing retirement, necessitating secure investment options; the diversification benefits of including bonds in investment portfolios; and the availability of diverse bond funds catering to various risk appetites, from conservative to more aggressive investment strategies. The increasing complexity of financial markets further fuels demand for professionally managed bond funds, which offer expertise in managing risk and selecting high-yield investments. Significant growth is anticipated in regions such as Asia-Pacific, fueled by expanding economies and growing investor sophistication in countries like China and India. Segment-wise, mutual funds dominate the bond fund sales market share, followed by ETFs and closed-end funds. Indirect sales channels (through financial advisors and brokers) continue to hold a significant market share, although direct sales (online platforms and direct purchases) are witnessing substantial growth, reflecting a shift towards digital investment platforms and greater investor autonomy. However, regulatory changes, evolving investor sentiment towards risk and return, and macroeconomic factors (such as interest rate fluctuations and inflation) pose potential restraints on market expansion. Competition within the industry is fierce, with major players like BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity Investments continuously innovating and expanding their product offerings to maintain their market positions. The forecast period of 2025-2033 projects sustained growth, with the market likely exceeding $4 trillion by 2033, driven by ongoing economic growth, evolving investor preferences, and strategic industry developments.

The average yearly yield of French 10-year government bonds has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2024. Starting at nearly ten percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of -0.14 percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.64% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.30 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Government bond spreads as of April 15, 2025, varied widely among the largest economies when compared to German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. The United Kingdom's bond spread was the higest against both, with 217.7 basis points (bps) over Germany and 33.4 bps over the U.S. In contrast, China and Japan display negative spreads, with Japan having the lowest spread at -301.2 bps against U.S. Treasuries. Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada showed moderate spreads. Positive bond spreads indicate that a country’s government bonds have higher yields compared to the benchmark bonds - in this case, the German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. Higher spreads often signal perceived higher risk or economic uncertainty, as investors demand greater returns for holding these bonds. expectations. Conversely, negative spreads mean that these bonds offer lower yields than the benchmark. Negative spreads often indicate strong investor confidence, safe-haven status, or lower inflation expectations, as investors are willing to accept lower returns for the perceived stability of these bonds.

As of November 2024, Luxembourg government bonds with maturities of close to ten years reached an average of 2.31 percent per annum. That was almost 0.8 percent less than the previous year. Treasury notes: a safe haven in times of trouble Ten-year government bonds, otherwise known as treasury notes, are debt obligations issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. In August 2019, investors became more interested in these investments as global developments sparked uncertainty on the stock markets. Traditionally, government bonds from the U.S. and Germany have the highest liquidity. When stock exchanges fall with around ten percent, a German treasury note with an interest rate of around 2.43 percent is then considered a relatively safe place. What are other options to do with your money in Luxembourg? In March 2023, the interest rate of short-term household deposits (with an agreed maturity of up to one year) in Luxembourg was 2.35. This was the lowest of all Benelux countries (Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). Low interest rates on consumer savings are deemed a consequence of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as it maintains artificially low interest rates to increase inflation on the European continent. Low interest rates and uncertainty on the stock exchange might therefore explain investors’ interest in gold. The international price of gold per troy ounce has increased sharply in recent years.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary policy on financial asset prices in Poland. Following Gürkaynak et al. (2005) I test how many factors adequately explain the variability of short-term interest rates around MPC meetings, finding that there are two such factors. The first one has a structural interpretation as a “current interest rate change” factor, and the second one as a “future interest rate changes” factor, with the latter related to MPC communication. Regression analysis shows that, controlling for foreign interest rates and global risk aversion, both MPC actions and communication matter for government bond yields, and that communication is more important for stock prices. Furthermore, the foreign exchange rate used to depreciate (appreciate) after MPC statements signalling tighter (easier) future monetary policy. However, the effect disappeared at the end of the sample. For most of the sample the exchange rate would appreciate (depreciate) or would not change in a statistically significant manner after an increase (a decrease) of the current interest rate. The results indicate that not only changes of the current interest rate but also MPC communication matters for financial asset prices in Poland. It has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in a low inflation and low interest rate environment.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to May 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.