This data package includes the underlying data, programs, documentation, and background notes for Another reason to raise the Fed’s inflation target: An employment and output boom, PIIE Policy Brief 21-19.

If you use the data, please cite as: Reifschneider, David, and David Wilcox, Another reason to raise the Fed’s inflation target: An employment and output boom, PIIE Policy Brief 21-19, August 2021, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Federal Reserve Board: Inflation Target data was reported at 2.000 % in 2019. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.000 % for 2018. Federal Reserve Board: Inflation Target data is updated yearly, averaging 2.000 % from Dec 2012 (Median) to 2019, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.000 % in 2019 and a record low of 2.000 % in 2019. Federal Reserve Board: Inflation Target data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I001: Consumer Price Index: Inflation Target.

This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation, PIIE Policy Brief 19-16. If you use the data, please cite as: Reifschneider, David, and David Wilcox. (2019). Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation. PIIE Policy Brief 19-16. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.40 percent in May from 2.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

It is widely acknowledged that the Fed can control the average inflation rate over a period of time reasonably well. Because of this and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) long-standing commitment to price stability, the author argues that the FOMC has an implicit long-run inflation objective (LIO) lower and upper bounds to the long-run inflation rate. He shows that the statements made by the FOMC in 2003 clarified the lower bound of its LIO and that the average of long-run inflation expectations responded by rising about 80 basis points. Moreover, consistent with reducing the market's uncertainty about the FOMC's LIO, long-run inflation expectations became more stable. The FOMC has recently been more specific about the upper bound of its LIO as well. The FOMC could eliminate the remaining uncertainty by establishing an explicit, numerical inflation objective.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF30YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 30-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF3YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 3-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF1YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 1-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF10YR) from Jan 1982 to May 2025 about projection, 10-year, inflation, and USA.

United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): sa: MoM data was reported at 0.185 % in Dec 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.178 % for Nov 2018. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): sa: MoM data is updated monthly, averaging 0.153 % from Aug 2013 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 65 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.193 % in Mar 2016 and a record low of 0.129 % in Mar 2014. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): sa: MoM data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I007: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data was reported at 2.291 % in Nov 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.484 % for Oct 2018. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data is updated monthly, averaging 1.597 % from Aug 2013 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.935 % in Jul 2018 and a record low of -0.184 % in Apr 2015. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I003: Consumer Price Index: Urban: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Core consumer prices in the United States increased 2.80 percent in May of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United States Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In April 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in April 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 10.2 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

United States - 30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate was 2.28% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate reached a record high of 2.71 in April of 2011 and a record low of 1.29 in March of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual(CPI) Consumer Price IndexInflation: sa: Mean: Current data was reported at 2.394 % in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.467 % for Sep 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual(CPI) Consumer Price IndexInflation: sa: Mean: Current data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.835 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 150 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.932 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.265 % in Mar 2009. United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual(CPI) Consumer Price IndexInflation: sa: Mean: Current data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Median data was reported at 1.906 % in Jun 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.700 % for Mar 2018. FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Median data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.856 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.600 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of -2.720 % in Mar 2009. FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Median data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.