According to recent projections, the impact of reciprocal tariffs worldwide will lead to a short-term acceleration of prices by 0.71 percent. The U.S. is expected to experience the highest price index increase, estimated at 7.26 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Peloton's shares dropped by 5.8% following the announcement of U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, raising concerns of increased production costs and inflation.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has substantially impacted global economies, with rising costs and inflation taking center stage. In the United States, the implementation of new tariffs on imported goods has caused a significant surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and automotive. U.S. GDP is projected to experience a loss of approximately 1.1%, which translates to a $170 billion reduction in economic output.

Moreover, the tariffs have eroded consumer purchasing power, with households expected to lose about $3,800 annually. These measures have forced businesses to reevaluate their supply chains and cost structures, further influencing the global trade environment. As inflation rises, central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, face growing pressure to manage the economic fallout, balancing inflation control with economic growth.

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The study of Jürgen Nautz deals with selected aspects of tariff autonomy and wage development during the years of inflation in the Weimar Republic. First the development of wages will be presented in the context of cost of living. To investigate the question of tariff autonomy in the inflation period it is of special interest to analyze the usage of arbitration instruments by unions, management and the state. Another central subject of this study is the fundamental position concerning the question of the design of important relations. Two themes are in the focus of interest; the ideas of the further refinement of the collective bargaining principle and the arbitration of labor disputes.Especially concerning tariff autonomy legal positions were developed during the inflation years which had an important impact on the discussion about tariff autonomy during the entire period the Weimar Republic. Data tables in HISTAT:A.1 Development of cost of living: Index of the statistical office of the German Empire (1920-1923)A.2 Index of average real weekly wages per collective agreement Index (1913-1923)A.3 Real weekly and real hourly wages of unskilled and skilled workers (1919-1923)A.4 Strikes and lockouts (1918-1924) A.5 Number of collective agreements (1918-1929)

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has had significant repercussions on the U.S. economy, with rising import costs and disrupted supply chains being among the most notable effects. Tariffs on key components for industries like electronics and robotics have increased manufacturing costs, leading to higher prices for consumers.

This affects businesses by squeezing profit margins and forcing them to make difficult decisions about absorbing these costs or passing them on to customers. The tariff-driven inflation also negatively impacts consumer purchasing power, reducing overall demand for non-essential goods.

Additionally, businesses dependent on international supply chains are facing delays, inefficiencies, and rising transportation costs. In the robotics sector, tariffs on foreign hardware components have made it more expensive for companies to source critical parts, thus slowing down production.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs also discourages investment in innovation and expansion, as companies remain cautious in an unpredictable global trade environment. This overall slowdown in economic activity could delay the full potential of emerging technologies like humanoid robots, which rely on global collaboration for research and development.

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Gold prices fell by 3.58% on Monday due to global tariff concerns, yet remain up 16.77% since January amid economic uncertainty.

Gold futures hit a historic high of $3,248.40 due to U.S. tariff policies and inflation concerns, with a 36% surge over the past year.

How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs are affecting the global economy by creating higher costs for businesses involved in the production and distribution of goods, including technology and travel services. In particular, companies offering virtual travel assistants face higher hardware and software importation costs, which are passed on to consumers. The imposition of tariffs, especially on AI technology and cloud services, raises operational costs for travel companies and technology providers.

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As tariffs increase, businesses are forced to adjust their pricing models, leading to higher service costs for consumers. This shift impacts international collaboration between travel companies, as tariff rates can vary from region to region, causing disruptions in pricing consistency and customer expectations. In response to tariff-induced inflation, businesses are increasingly focusing on optimizing their technology infrastructure and operational efficiencies to offset these additional costs. As travel demand continues to grow, these economic shifts challenge companies to maintain competitive pricing while navigating a complex global tariff landscape.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to higher production and operational costs. In the U.S., tariffs imposed on food imports have directly impacted the foodservice sector, including full-service restaurants. The increased cost of ingredients, equipment, and even labor due to higher import duties has squeezed restaurant profit margins.

Additionally, businesses are experiencing delays in product deliveries, resulting in supply shortages that impact menu offerings and customer satisfaction. While some restaurants have absorbed these higher costs, many have been forced to increase prices, contributing to inflation.

Consumer spending is also impacted as the cost of dining out rises, reducing discretionary spending in other sectors. Tariffs are exacerbating challenges in an already competitive market, forcing FSR businesses to adapt their sourcing strategies, rethink their pricing models, and invest in automation to offset higher costs. In the long term, tariffs may result in fewer investment opportunities and slower growth in the foodservice industry.

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Egg prices are anticipated to decline as wholesale costs drop, providing relief to grocery shoppers. However, potential tariff impacts could influence future pricing trends.

Building materials made of steel, copper and other metals had some of the highest price growth rates in the U.S. in early 2025 in comparison to the previous year. The growth rate of the cost of several construction materials was slightly lower than in late 2024. It is important to note, though, that the figures provided are Producer Price Indices, which cover production within the United States, but do not include imports or tariffs. This might matter for lumber, as Canada's wood production is normally large enough that the U.S. can import it from its neighboring country. Construction material prices in the United Kingdom Similarly to these trends in the U.S., at that time the price growth rate of construction materials in the UK were generally lower 2024 than in 2023. Nevertheless, the cost of some construction materials in the UK still rose that year, with several of those items reaching price growth rates of over **** percent. Considering that those materials make up a very big share of the costs incurred for a construction project, those developments may also have affected the average construction output price in the UK. Construction material shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, there often were supply problems and material shortages, which created instability in the construction market. According to a survey among construction contractors, the construction materials most affected by shortages in the U.S. during most of 2021 were steel and lumber. This was also a problem on the other side of the Atlantic: The share of building construction companies experiencing shortages in Germany soared between March and June 2021, staying at high levels for over a year. Meanwhile, the shortage of material or equipment was one of the main factors limiting the building activity in France in June 2022.

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has led to a surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors reliant on imported goods. Apparel prices, for instance, have increased by 64% in the short term. This inflationary pressure has eroded household purchasing power, with average losses estimated at $3,800 per household.

Additionally, the U.S. economy is projected to experience a persistent 0.6% reduction in GDP annually, amounting to a $170 billion loss. The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing inflation control with economic growth, as the tariffs contribute to increased inflation expectations.

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Brazil Consumer Price Index (CPI): IPC-BR-DI: Non-Tradable Goods: Public Tariffs data was reported at 1,413.396 Aug1994=100 in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1,406.328 Aug1994=100 for Mar 2025. Brazil Consumer Price Index (CPI): IPC-BR-DI: Non-Tradable Goods: Public Tariffs data is updated monthly, averaging 590.928 Aug1994=100 from Jan 1994 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 376 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,432.692 Aug1994=100 in Oct 2024 and a record low of 12.552 Aug1994=100 in Jan 1994. Brazil Consumer Price Index (CPI): IPC-BR-DI: Non-Tradable Goods: Public Tariffs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Getulio Vargas Foundation. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Inflation – Table BR.IB004: Consumer Price Index: Getulio Vargas Foundation.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Georgia Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data was reported at 2.328 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.436 % for Mar 2025. Georgia Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data is updated monthly, averaging 2.824 % from Jan 2010 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 184 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.214 % in Nov 2015 and a record low of -0.756 % in Feb 2013. Georgia Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Statistics Office of Georgia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Georgia – Table GE.I013: Core Consumer Price Index: YoY. Core inflation is calculated by excluding the following groups of goods and services from the consumer basket: food and non-alcoholic beverages, energy, regulated tariffs, transport (specific tariffs).

The stability program is a document sent each year by the members of the European Union to the Commission, which presents the medium-term strategy and trajectory of public finances. In the stability program submitted by France in 2022, the Direction Générale du Trésor (French Treasury), which is responsible for its elaboration, has measured the impact on the public balance of the support measures taken by the government to cope with inflation.
It appears that in 2021, these measures cost the French government 4.7 billion euros, while they exceeded 40 billion euros in 2022. The most expensive measure that year was the implementation of a tariff shield on electricity regarding the loss of revenue of suppliers (nearly nine billion euros).

Discover how new 25% tariffs on auto parts are poised to affect the automotive industry, increasing costs for automakers and consumers.