Graph and download economic data for University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation (MICH) from Jan 1978 to May 2025 about consumer sentiment, projection, MI, consumer, inflation, and USA.

Michigan Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 4.40 percent in July from 5 percent in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Inflation Expectations.

Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 3.60 percent in July from 4 percent in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

United States - University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation was 6.50% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation reached a record high of 10.40 in January of 1980 and a record low of 0.40 in November of 2001. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Consumer Confidence in the United States increased to 61.80 points in July from 60.70 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

According to the University of Michigan’s latest survey, consumer sentiment has dropped a stunning 27% YoY and continues to plummet as concerns over job security, inflation, and a volatile stock market climb

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 6-9% data was reported at 3.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 6-9% data is updated monthly, averaging 5.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 26.000 % in Apr 1978 and a record low of 1.000 % in Sep 2010. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 6-9% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data was reported at 3.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data is updated monthly, averaging 4.000 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to May 2018, with 380 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.000 % in Jul 1982 and a record low of 1.000 % in Nov 2017. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

Michigan Consumer Expectations in the United States increased to 58.60 points in July from 58.10 points in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Consumer Expectations.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data was reported at 1.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data is updated monthly, averaging 3.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 23.000 % in Dec 2008 and a record low of 0.000 % in Oct 1999. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

This data set contains the data used in the research project "Cognitive Biases in Consumer Sentiment: the Peak-End Rule and Herding". The following files and items are includedICSdata.xlsx: Index of Consumer Sentiment and its constituents (sheet 1), and PAGO per region (sheet 2); original source University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ALFRED_data: macro economic series related to economic growth, inflation, (un)employment and consumption, including publication date; original source ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data (ALFRED), https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/; for each series a README sheet is included with metadataFREDdata: financial and economic series related to stock, bond, housing markets, interest rates,gasoline prices and regional unemployment rates; each sheet contains the mnemonic of the donwloaded series.MicroData_20220113: demographic information of each respondent in the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan; downloaded from University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Prelim_PA.xlsx: the Index of Consumer Sentiment and its constituent series, as reported in the preliminary annoucement by the University of Michigan (prelim), and the series constructed based on the surveys after the preliminary announcements. The prelim series are publicly available via https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ . The pa series have been constructed based on interview datas obtains from the University of Michigan. These data are proprietory and cannot be shared freely.DemographicDifferences.xlsx: average differences between the prelim and pa monthly subsample in the demographic statistics available in MicroData_20220113.xlsx. The difference have been constructed based on interview datas obtains from the University of Michigan. These data are proprietory and cannot be shared freely.Methodology: Linear regressions and time-series methods.Findings: We show that two heuristics, the peak-end rule and herding, generate biases in indexes of consumer sentiment. Both affect respondents' assessment of changes in their financial position over the past year. Conform the peak-end rule, their answers relate more to extreme detrimental monthly than to yearly changes in key financial and macro variables. These effects are stronger for more salient variables. As for herding, we document that respondents interviewed in the second round about past financial changes rely too strongly on future expectations from first-round respondents. These effects persist when we account for structural differences in sample composition or for the effect of other predictive variables. Our research shows the presence of both biases outside controlled environments and sheds new light on the relevance of sentiment indexes.

It is widely acknowledged that the Fed can control the average inflation rate over a period of time reasonably well. Because of this and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) long-standing commitment to price stability, the author argues that the FOMC has an implicit long-run inflation objective (LIO) lower and upper bounds to the long-run inflation rate. He shows that the statements made by the FOMC in 2003 clarified the lower bound of its LIO and that the average of long-run inflation expectations responded by rising about 80 basis points. Moreover, consistent with reducing the market's uncertainty about the FOMC's LIO, long-run inflation expectations became more stable. The FOMC has recently been more specific about the upper bound of its LIO as well. The FOMC could eliminate the remaining uncertainty by establishing an explicit, numerical inflation objective.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data was reported at 2.400 % in Jul 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.600 % for Jun 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data is updated monthly, averaging 2.900 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to Jul 2018, with 382 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.700 % in Feb 1980 and a record low of 2.300 % in Dec 2016. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

Testing methods of gathering data on rural inflation.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF10YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about projection, 10-year, inflation, and USA.

There has been a resurgence of interest in dynamic factor models for use by policy advisors. Dynamic factor methods can be used to incorporate a wide range of economic information when forecasting or measuring economic shocks. This article introduces dynamic factor models that underlie the data-rich methods and also tests whether the data-rich models can help a benchmark autoregressive model forecast alternative measures of inflation and real economic activity at horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months ahead. The authors find that, over the past decade, the data-rich models significantly improve the forecasts for a variety of real output and inflation indicators. For all the series that they examine, the authors find that the data-rich models become more useful when forecasting over longer horizons. The exception is the unemployment rate, where the principal components provide significant forecasting information at all horizons.

Inflation can cause costly misallocations of resources as consumers seek to protect the purchasing power of their nominal assets. This research deals with the nature of these distortions, known as "shoe-leather costs," in a model where the demand for money is motivated by a shopping-time constraint. While the estimates of the shoe-leather costs of long-run inflation (implied by this model) are generally consistent with previous studies, the research shows that the transition between inflation rates can involve dynamics that alter the nature of these welfare effects. Specifically, the benefits of a disinflation policy are mitigated by the gradual adjustment of the economy in response to a lower inflation rate. This transition can be particularly protracted when there is uncertainty about the credibility of the disinflation policy.

This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected.

United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data was reported at 29.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 29.000 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data is updated monthly, averaging 18.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 34.000 % in Oct 2016 and a record low of 1.000 % in May 1980. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 1-2% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

Ten years of empirical studies of inflation targeting have not uncovered clear evidence that monetary policy that incorporates formal targets imparts better inflation performance. The authors survey the literature and find that the "no difference" verdict concerning inflation targeting has been robust to a wide range of countries and methods of analysis, starting with a study by Dueker and Fischer (1996a). The authors present updated Markov-switching estimates from the original Dueker and Fisher (1996a) article and show that their early conclusions about inflation targeting among early adopters have not been overturned with an additional decade of data. These findings to date do not rule out the possibility, however, that formal inflation targets could prove pivotal if the global environment of disinflation were to reverse course.