Abstract This paper analyzes a signaling model of monetary policy when inflation targets are not set by the monetary authority. The most important implication of the model’s solution is that a higher ex-ante dispersion in central bankers’ preferences, referred to as heterogeneity in policy orientation, increases the signaling cost of commitment to inflation targets. The model allows for a comparison of two distinct institutional arrangements regarding the tenure in office of the central banker and the head of government. We find that staggered terms yield superior equilibria when opportunistic political business cycles can arise from presidential elections. This is a consequence of a reduction of information asymmetry about monetary policy, and gives theoretic support to the observed practice of staggered terms among independent central banks.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.40 percent in May from 2.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

According to a poll conducted at the end of 2022, Americans were feeling quite pessimistic about the coming year. 90 percent of Americans felt negatively about the prospect of political conflict in 2023.

The Economy 2022 was a difficult year for many Americans, as it was for many around the world. After a year of high inflation, record fuel prices, and decreased financial security, the country greeted 2023 with high rates of skepticism and caution. Although the U.S. economy itself has experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic recession compared with other major economies, a sustained decline in consumer spending power thanks to wage growth not keeping pace with inflation has everyday Americans feeling the pinch.

U.S. political landscape The political scene in the U.S. also had a tumultuous few years in the lead up to 2023. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States in 2016 left many voters reeling and the country more divided than ever. The beginning of 2021 was market by the January 6th attack on the Capitol, as well as the inauguration of Joe Biden. Additionally, the country continued to grapple with a politicized response to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. 2022 began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ushering in the beginning of a global fuel and inflation crisis. In the midst of hardening economic conditions, the Supreme Court overturned its ruling on Roe v. Wade, returning the power to decide abortion restrictions to state legislatures.

The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win enough seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, but saw the GOP ultimately underperform compared to predictions at the time. The first day of the 2023 congressional term was marked by the inability of the Republican Party to unify itself behind one candidate for Speaker of the House, leading to a once in a century multi-round of Speaker elections. With new members of the House not able to be sworn in until a Speaker is elected, 2023 had a difficult start.

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

Research on presidential agenda setting has rarely attempted to simultaneously assess the ability of the president to influence the policy agendas of the mass media and the public. This is primarily due to the lack of time-refined measures of public issue attention. With advances in technology, information about Internet search engine behavior can provide an indication of the level of interest the public has over time about specific issues. Using Google Trends weekly data about public search interest levels, this project contrasts dynamic attention to several economic issues: unemployment, recession, and inflation. The vector autoregression analyses performed suggest the president does not have the capacity to directly guide public attention, nor does the president have the capacity to indirectly guide public attention through the media. There is some indication that the president can indirectly guide public attention by influencing actual economic conditions, and that the president is responsive to attention from the mass media and the public. The moving-average representation analyses indicate that an increase in presidential attention has the potential to produce a small contemporaneous increase in either mass media or public attention to some economic issues. The duration of these positive shifts in mass media or public attention are all very brief, indicating the president has a limited capacity through either direct or indirect leadership to sustain the attention other actors in the political system place on the specific issues studied. Strong evidence in all three of the issue areas studied supports that mass media attention and public attention are closely related.

Of the major developed and emerging economies, China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.1 percent in December 2024. On the other end of the spectrum, the inflation rate in Russia stood at nearly 10 percent. The country's inflation rate increased sharply after the country's President, Vladimir Putin, decided to invade Ukraine, declined somewhat in 2023, before increasing slowly again since. The rate of inflation reflects changes in the cost of a specified basket containing a representative selection of goods and services. It is derived from the consumer price index (CPI).

About this dataset

Context

The dataset illustrates the median household income in President township, spanning the years from 2010 to 2023, with all figures adjusted to 2023 inflation-adjusted dollars. Based on the latest 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates from the American Community Survey, it displays how income varied over the last decade. The dataset can be utilized to gain insights into median household income trends and explore income variations.

Key observations:

From 2010 to 2023, the median household income for President township decreased by $3,389 (5.77%), as per the American Community Survey estimates. In comparison, median household income for the United States increased by $5,602 (7.68%) between 2010 and 2023.

Analyzing the trend in median household income between the years 2010 and 2023, spanning 13 annual cycles, we observed that median household income, when adjusted for 2023 inflation using the Consumer Price Index retroactive series (R-CPI-U-RS), experienced growth year by year for 6 years and declined for 7 years.

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates. All incomes have been adjusting for inflation and are presented in 2022-inflation-adjusted dollars.

Years for which data is available:

• 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 0223

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column presents the data year from 2010 to 2023
• Median Household Income: Median household income, in 2023 inflation-adjusted dollars for the specific year
• YOY Change($): Change in median household income between the current and the previous year, in 2023 inflation-adjusted dollars
• YOY Change(%): Percent change in median household income between current and the previous year

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for President township median household income. You can refer the same here

Pre-election survey investigates reasons for preferences for Richard Nixon or George McGovern for president.Additional questions focus on the economy, inflation, recession, unemployment, Wage-Price Control Board, break-in at Democratic National Headquarters, and legitimacy of wiretapping.

This poll is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. In this poll, respondents were asked their opinions on Ronald Reagan's presidential performance, his handling of the economy and inflation, former President Richard Nixon's role in Watergate, and the impact of inflation upon the respondent's personal finances, job security, and unemployment history, if any. Demographic information on respondents includes race, sex, age, religion, and educational level.

Adding to national debt is an inevitable fact of being President of the United States. The extent to which debt rises under any sitting president depends not only on the policy and spending choices they have made, but also the choices made by presidents and congresses that have come before them. Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush President Ronald Reagan increased the U.S. debt by around **** trillion U.S. dollars, or ****** percent. This is often attributed to "Reaganomics," in which Reagan implemented significant supply-side economic policies in which he reduced government regulation, cut taxes, and tightened the money supply. Spending increased under President George W. Bush in light of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. To finance the wars, President Bush chose to borrow the money, rather than use war bonds or increase taxes, unlike previous war-time presidents. Additionally, Bush introduced a number of tax cuts, and oversaw the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis. Barack Obama President Obama inherited both wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the financial crisis. The Obama administration also did not increase taxes to pay for the wars, and additionally passed expensive legislation to kickstart the economy following the economic crash, as well as the Affordable Care Act in 2010. The ACA expanded healthcare coverage to cover more than ** million more Americans through programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Though controversial at the time, more than half of Americans have a favorable view of the ACA in 2023. Additionally, he signed legislation making the W. Bush-era tax cuts permanent.

Iran’s inflation rate rose sharply to 34.79 percent in 2019 and was projected to rise another 14 percentage points before slowly starting to decline. Given the recent sanctions by the United States regarding the nuclear deal, this number has both political and economic implications. Political implications President Hassan Rouhani won the 2017 election based on economic promises, many stemming from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Lifting these sanctions opened the Iranian economy to many opportunities, including the chance to benefit from increased oil exports. The JCPOA was an integral part of the Rouhani campaign, so any economic hardship that is linked to the deal will likely be blamed on the president. Economic implications High inflation leads to high interest rates, which leads to less borrowing. Less borrowing means less investment, which slows economic growth. This slower growth often leads to higher inflation, which is what economists call an inflationary spiral. As such, Iran will have difficulty achieving substantial GDP growth until inflation returns to manageable rates.

Inflation Rate in Argentina decreased to 43.50 percent in May from 47.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Argentina Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset presents the distribution of median household income among distinct age brackets of householders in President township. Based on the latest 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates from the American Community Survey, it displays how income varies among householders of different ages in President township. It showcases how household incomes typically rise as the head of the household gets older. The dataset can be utilized to gain insights into age-based household income trends and explore the variations in incomes across households.

Key observations: Insights from 2023

In terms of income distribution across age cohorts, in President township, the median household income stands at $91,250 for householders within the 45 to 64 years age group, followed by $51,250 for the 25 to 44 years age group. Notably, householders within the 65 years and over age group, had the lowest median household income at $44,250.

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates. All incomes have been adjusting for inflation and are presented in 2023-inflation-adjusted dollars.

Age groups classifications include:

• Under 25 years
• 25 to 44 years
• 45 to 64 years
• 65 years and over

Variables / Data Columns

• Age Of The Head Of Household: This column presents the age of the head of household
• Median Household Income: Median household income, in 2023 inflation-adjusted dollars for the specific age group

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for President township median household income by age. You can refer the same here

On November 15, 2021, President Biden signed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), which invests more than $13 billion directly in Tribal communities across the country and makes Tribal communities eligible for billions more. For further explanation of the law please visit https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text. These resources go to many Federal agencies to expand access to clean drinking water for Native communities, ensure every Native American has access to high-speed internet, tackle the climate crisis, advance environmental justice, and invest in Tribal communities that have too often been left behind. On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law, marking the most significant action Congress has taken on clean energy and climate change in the nation’s history. With the stroke of his pen, the President redefined American leadership in confronting the existential threat of the climate crisis and set forth a new era of American innovation and ingenuity to lower consumer costs and drive the global clean energy economy forward. More information on this can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebook/. This dataset illustrates the locations of Bureau of Indian Affairs projects funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act in Fiscal Year 2022, 2023, and 2024. The points illustrated in this dataset are the locations of Bureau of Indian Affairs projects funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act in Fiscal Year 2022 and 2023. The locations for the points in this layer were provided by the persons involved in the following groups: Division of Water and Power, DWP, Ecosystem Restoration, Irrigation, Power, Water Sanitation, Dam Safety, Branch of Geospatial Support, Bureau of Indian Affairs, BIA.GIS point feature class was created by Bureau of Indian Affairs - Branch Of Geospatial Support (BOGS), Division of Water and Power (DWP), Ecosystem Restoration, Irrigation, Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Tribal Leaders Directory: https://www.bia.gov/service/tribal-leaders-directory/tld-csvexcel-dataset, The Department of the Interior | Strategic Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Project: https://www.doi.gov/emergency/shira#main-content

In 2018, the average inflation rate in Egypt amounted to about 20.85 percent, a slight decrease compared to the previous year, when it peaked at 23.53 percent.

Political unrest

Egypt has been shaken by political unrest and turmoil for years now, and these events affect the economy as well. On January 25, 2011, Egyptians started protesting police brutality under then-president Hosni Mubarak, demanding an end to his reign. The protests were met with violence by armed forces, resulting in more unrest and looting. In the end, hundreds of Egyptians had lost their lives and over 6,000 were injured. After Mubarak’s subsequent resignation and the Muslim Brotherhood taking power in the country, Mohamed Morsi was elected President in 2012. He also was overthrown a year later after protests and was imprisoned. The current President, Abdel Fattah es-Sisi, was involved in overthrowing Morsi and took office in June 2014. Sisi introduced a number of economic reforms, but they did not succeed in stabilizing Egypt’s economy.

Economic unrest

2017 saw the Egyptian inflation rate skyrocket from 10.2 percent in 2016 to more than double that at 23.5 percent. Ever since, inflation has recovered only slowly, although projections today see it levelling off below ten percent in the future. Around the same year, Egypt’s GDP dropped to below 240 billion U.S. dollars, a historical low. Unemployment, another key indicator, has steadily been between 12 to 13 percent - one reason for this is Egypt’s reliance on agriculture, which does not factor into the unemployment rate. National debt has also increased dramatically over the last few years. All in all, the times of economic unrest are not yet over.

The Consumer Price Index gauges the price changes in a basket of goods and services in a defined time period. In Argentina, the CPI in April 2024 was 289 percent higher than the one registered the same month of the previous year, with this figure being the largest monthly inflation rate since, at least, the beginning of 2018. The Argentinian inflation rate has been experiencing a steep increase from December 2020 onwards, when the decreasing trend witnessed since December 2019 came to an end. Long history of inflation in Latin America High inflation rates are nothing new in Latin America. In 2023, the region's inflation rate was 14.41 percent, while the global average was much lower at 6.78 percent. Nonetheless, the main drivers of this are Venezuela and Argentina, both being in the upper table of countries with the highest inflation rates in the world. During the last few years, Venezuela entered a period with five-digits inflation rates, having to issue a new currency and implementing new policies to control price increases.

A history of hyperinflation During the last couple of years, inflation has been a constant among the main problems the Argentine society faces. The country returned to a three-digit inflation rate with former president Alberto Fernández, and the constant price increases took a toll on households across the board. Nevertheless, the problem is far from a recent one or the worst it's ever been, in 1989 and 1990, the inflation rate was over 2,000 percent, reaching for the status of hyperinflation. Commonly, hyperinflation is defined as price increases with over 50 percent per month.

ABSTRACTAdministered prices and government discretion. Administered prices during the first term of President Dilma were used as an instrument to meet inflation target, so as to subordinate industrial policies to short run macroeconomic aims. This strategy was ineffective to control inflation and distorted investment and consumption decisions. The article shows that prices tend to deviate more the larger their weight in the price index, and tend to vary consistently with the political cycles. The article concludes with policy suggestions to control the negative effect of deviations of government discretion to determine administered prices.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset presents a breakdown of households across various income brackets in President Township, Pennsylvania, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau classifies households into different categories, including total households, family households, and non-family households. Our analysis of U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data for President Township, Pennsylvania reveals how household income distribution varies among these categories. The dataset highlights the variation in number of households with income, offering valuable insights into the distribution of President township households based on income levels.

Key observations

• For Family Households: In President township, the majority of family households, representing 14.63%, earn $75,000 to $99,999, showcasing a substantial share of the community families falling within this income bracket. Conversely, the minority of family households, comprising 0.0%, have incomes falling $40,000 to $44,999, representing a smaller but still significant segment of the community.
• For Non-Family Households: In President township, the majority of non-family households, accounting for 20.0%, have income $15,000 to $19,999, indicating that a substantial portion of non-family households falls within this income bracket. On the other hand, the minority of non-family households, comprising 0.0%, earn $40,000 to $44,999, representing a smaller, yet notable, portion of non-family households in the community.

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates.

Income Levels:

• Less than $10,000
• $10,000 to $14,999
• $15,000 to $19,999
• $20,000 to $24,999
• $25,000 to $29,999
• $30,000 to $34,999
• $35,000 to $39,999
• $40,000 to $44,999
• $45,000 to $49,999
• $50,000 to $59,999
• $60,000 to $74,999
• $75,000 to $99,999
• $125,000 to $149,999
• $150,000 to $199,999
• $200,000 or more

Variables / Data Columns

• Income Level: The income level represents the income brackets ranging from Less than $10,000 to $200,000 or more in President Township, Pennsylvania (As mentioned above).
• All Households: Count of households for the specified income level
• % All Households: Percentage of households at the specified income level relative to the total households in President Township, Pennsylvania
• Family Households: Count of family households for the specified income level
• % Family Households: Percentage of family households at the specified income level relative to the total family households in President Township, Pennsylvania
• Non-Family Households: Count of non-family households for the specified income level
• % Non-Family Households: Percentage of non-family households at the specified income level relative to the total non-family households in President Township, Pennsylvania

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for President township median household income. You can refer the same here