50 years+ of historical inflaction, interest and unemployment rates by country

data source: https://data.worldbank.org cover image credit: https://www.pexels.com/photo/one-dollar-bill-3943739/

Abstract

This dataset includes economic statistics on inflation, prices, unemployment, and pay & benefits provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Documentation

Update frequency: Monthly Dataset source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Terms of use: This dataset is publicly available for anyone to use under the following terms provided by the Dataset Source - http://www.data.gov/privacy-policy#data_policy - and is provided "AS IS" without any warranty, express or implied, from Google. Google disclaims all liability for any damages, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of the dataset. See the GCP Marketplace listing for more details and sample queries: https://console.cloud.google.com/marketplace/details/bls-public-data/bureau-of-labor-statistics

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has experienced sharply rising then falling inflation alongside persistent labor market imbalances. This Economic Commentary interprets these macroeconomic dynamics, as represented by the Beveridge and Phillips curves, through the lens of a macroeconomic model. It uses the structure of the model to rationalize the debate about whether the US economy can expect a hard or soft landing. The model is surprised by the resiliency of the labor market as the US economy experienced disinflation. We suggest that the model’s limited ability to capture this resiliency is a feature of using a linear model to forecast the historically unprecedented movements seen after the pandemic among inflation, unemployment, and vacancy rates. We explain how, by adjusting the model to mimic congestion in a tight labor market and greater wage and price flexibility in a high-inflation environment, as during the post-pandemic period, the model can then capture what has been a path consistent with a soft landing.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

This data is used for examination of inflation- unemployment relationship for 18 countries after 1991. Inflation data is obtained from World Bank database (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG) and unemployment data is obtained from International Labor Organization (http://www.ilo.org/wesodata/).

Analysis period is different for all countries because of structural breaks determined by single point change point detection algorithm included in changepoint package of Killick & Eckley (2014). Granger-causality is conducted with Toda&Yamamoto (1995) procedure. Integration levels are determined with 3 stationary tests. VAR models are run with vars package (Pfaff, Stigler & Pfaff; 2018) without trend and constant terms. Cointegration test is conducted with urca package (Pfaff, Zivot, Stigler & Pfaff; 2016).

All data files are .csv files. Analyst need to change country index (variable name: j) in order to see individual results. Findings can be seen in the article.

Killick, R., & Eckley, I. (2014). changepoint: An R package for changepoint analysis. Journal of statistical software, 58(3), 1-19.

Pfaff, B., Stigler, M., & Pfaff, M. B. (2018). Package ‘vars’. Online] https://cran. r-project. org/web/packages/vars/vars. pdf.

Pfaff, B., Zivot, E., Stigler, M., & Pfaff, M. B. (2016). Package ‘urca’. Unit root and cointegration tests for time series data. R package version, 1-2.

Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the regimes are substantially different. Further, even within a given regime, the results of the clustering show persistent fluctuations in the degree of attachment to that regime of inflation/unemployment observations over time. The economic implications of the results are that, first, the inflation/unemployment relationship experiences from time to time major shifts. Second, that it is also inherently unstable even in the short run. It is likely that the factors which govern the inflation/unemployment trade off are so multi-dimensional that it is hard to see that there is a way of identifying periods of short run Phillips curves which can be assigned to particular historical periods with any degree of accuracy or predictability. The short run may be so short as to be meaningless. The analysis shows that reliance on any kind of trade off between inflation and unemployment for policy purposes is entirely misplaced.

In 2025, it was estimated that over 163 million Americans were in some form of employment, while 4.16 percent of the total workforce was unemployed. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s, although these figures are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond. 1980s-2010s Since the 1980s, the total United States labor force has generally risen as the population has grown, however, the annual average unemployment rate has fluctuated significantly, usually increasing in times of crisis, before falling more slowly during periods of recovery and economic stability. For example, unemployment peaked at 9.7 percent during the early 1980s recession, which was largely caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian Revolution on global oil prices and inflation. Other notable spikes came during the early 1990s; again, largely due to inflation caused by another oil shock, and during the early 2000s recession. The Great Recession then saw the U.S. unemployment rate soar to 9.6 percent, following the collapse of the U.S. housing market and its impact on the banking sector, and it was not until 2016 that unemployment returned to pre-recession levels. 2020s 2019 had marked a decade-long low in unemployment, before the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic saw the sharpest year-on-year increase in unemployment since the Great Depression, and the total number of workers fell by almost 10 million people. Despite the continuation of the pandemic in the years that followed, alongside the associated supply-chain issues and onset of the inflation crisis, unemployment reached just 3.67 percent in 2022 - current projections are for this figure to rise in 2023 and the years that follow, although these forecasts are subject to change if recent years are anything to go by.

Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 4.40 percent in September from 4.30 percent in August of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (NROU) from Q1 1949 to Q4 2035 about NAIRU, projection, long-term, unemployment, rate, and USA.

This dataset includes economic statistics on inflation, prices, unemployment, and pay & benefits provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This public dataset is hosted in Google BigQuery and is included in BigQuery's 1TB/mo of free tier processing. This means that each user receives 1TB of free BigQuery processing every month, which can be used to run queries on this public dataset. Watch this short video to learn how to get started quickly using BigQuery to access public datasets. What is BigQuery .

Context

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to promote conditions that achieve the mandate set by the Congress — high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and moderate long-term interest rates. Interest rates set by the Fed directly influence the cost of borrowing money. Lower interest rates encourage more people to obtain a mortgage for a new home or to borrow money for an automobile or for home improvement. Lower rates encourage businesses to borrow funds to invest in expansion such as purchasing new equipment, updating plants, or hiring more workers. Higher interest rates restrain such borrowing by consumers and businesses.

Content

This dataset includes data on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate is determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate; the target rate transitioned to a target range with an upper and lower limit in December 2008. The real gross domestic product is calculated as the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the gross domestic product based on chained 2009 dollars. The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force. The inflation rate reflects the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index of products excluding food and energy.

Acknowledgements

The interest rate data was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal. The gross domestic product data was provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the unemployment and consumer price index data was provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inspiration

How does economic growth, unemployment, and inflation impact the Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions? How has the interest rate policy changed over time? Can you predict the Federal Reserve's next decision? Will the target range set in March 2017 be increased, decreased, or remain the same?

Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 7.152 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.136 % for 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 8.407 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2022, with 33 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.280 % in 1990 and a record low of 7.136 % in 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ireland – Table IE.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

This scatter chart displays inflation (annual %) against unemployment (% of total labor force) in Europe. The data is about countries.

Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 3.514 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.480 % for 2021. Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.462 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.744 % in 1993 and a record low of 2.775 % in 1985. Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Norway – Table NO.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Question Paper Solutions of chapter Inflation and Unemployment of Macroeconomics and Advanced Business Mathematics, Semester V , Bachelors of Commerce (Honours)

In 2025, the UK economy is expected to grow by just one percent, according to the economic and fiscal outlook from March 2025. GDP growth has been downgraded from two percent when compared with the previous forecast from October 2024. The inflation rate is expected to average out at 3.2 percent, and the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent. Inflation distress continues for UK consumers The expected increase in UK inflation for 2025 looks set to peak at 3.7 percent in the third quarter of the year, before falling to two percent by early 2026. Though this spike in prices will be far less serious than in 2022, when UK inflation reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, UK households are still suffering from the impact of the previous crisis. In March 2025, approximately 59 percent of UK households were dealing with rising living costs, relative to the previous month, mainly due to rising energy and food costs. Unemployment set to rise in 2025 Aside from rising prices and a slowing economy, the UK will also have to contend with rising unemployment in 2025. As with inflation, however, the rise in unemployment is expected to be relatively mild and short-lived, especially when compared with previous periods of high unemployment. Recently, the government has been more concerned about high levels of economic inactivity, especially among young people, with the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment, education, or training approaching one million towards the end of 2024.

Israel IL: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 4.181 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.122 % for 2021. Israel IL: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 8.909 % from Dec 1995 (Median) to 2022, with 28 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 11.761 % in 2002 and a record low of 4.106 % in 2020. Israel IL: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Israel – Table IL.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

The average unemployment rate was six percent in Germany in 2024. Since 2005, the rate of unemployment has generally been declining, though a slight increase was evident in recent years. Unemployment in Germany and comparison with other countries Germany has a comparatively low unemployment rate compared to its European neighbors, and they are expected to stay at around three percent over the next few years. This is a result of the damage the economy suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the lockdown, most businesses were closed, and many companies lost revenue meaning employees were let go. It is also possible that higher unemployment figures will continue into later years because of inflation and rising energy prices. There is also a slightly higher unemployment rate among men than there is among women. Social support Social support is money paid out to those who are unable to work for some reason, its purpose is to protect those who are most vulnerable. The status of being unemployed is defined as when an employed person is laid off, fired, or quits his work and is still looking for a job, this is what qualifies someone to receive a citizens allowance (Bürgergeld) in Germany. The payments are only made if you are unemployed and worked for the last 12 months. Otherwise, benefits are received in the form of Arbeitslosengeld II, also called Hartz IV, which distributes social payments to people without an income who cannot work to make a living. Since January 2023 though, Arbeitlosengeld has been replaced by Bürgergeld, since this is a new transition, it is still possible that people will still refer to the benefits as Arbeitlosengeld or Hartz IV.

Japan JP: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 2.858 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.886 % for 2021. Japan JP: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.318 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.375 % in 2003 and a record low of 2.257 % in 1985. Japan JP: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Australia NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 5.413 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 5.345 % for 2021. Australia NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 5.759 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.377 % in 1993 and a record low of 4.951 % in 2007. Australia NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en