The house price-to-income ratio in Australia was ***** as of the fourth quarter of 2024. This ratio, calculated by dividing nominal house prices by nominal disposable income per head, increased from the previous quarter. The price-to-income ratio can be used to measure housing affordability in a specific area. Australia's property bubble There has been considerable debate over the past decade about whether Australia is in a property bubble or not. A property bubble refers to a sharp increase in the price of property that is disproportional to income and rental prices, followed by a decline. In Australia, rising house prices have undoubtedly been an issue for many potential homeowners, pricing them out of the market. Along with the average house price, high mortgage interest rates have exacerbated the issue. Is the homeownership dream out of reach? Housing affordability has varied across the different states and territories in Australia. In 2024, the median value of residential houses was the highest in Sydney compared to other major Australian cities, with Brisbane becoming an increasingly expensive city. Nonetheless, expected interest rate cuts in 2025, alongside the expansion of initiatives to improve Australia's dwelling stock, social housing supply, and first-time buyer accessibility to properties, may start to improve the situation. These encompass initiatives such as the Australian government's Help to Buy scheme and the Housing Australia Future Fund Facility (HAFFF) and National Housing Accord Facility (NHAF) programs.

The Real Estate Valuation Services industry has undergone tumultuous conditions over the five years through 2024-25. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve of Australia cut interest rates to near 0% as it acted to stimulate the Australian economy. With these record-low rates, many homeowners took the opportunity to refinance mortgages, capturing equity and substantially reducing their monthly repayments. Real estate valuators benefited from this trend by providing services to determine property value, enabling lending institutions to price and later approve new loans accurately. More recently, interest rates have been hiked in an effort to curb sticky inflation. This has led to declining revenue for the Real Estate Valuation Services industry, creating highly volatile conditions. Overall, revenue is expected to have slumped at an annualised 3.1% over the five years through 2024-25, to $600.9 million. This includes an anticipated drop of 0.3% in 2024-25. Historically, a few providers have dominated the industry’s intense market concentration. However, the emergence of independent, single-employee businesses and the increasing availability of efficient valuation software have intensified price competition within the industry, eroding industrywide profitability. In the coming years, the industry will benefit from lower interest rates, which will once again empower more households to refinance mortgages. The number of dwelling commencements is also projected to rebound, providing ample work for valuers through an influx of initial appraisals. The Real Estate Valuation Services industry's revenue is forecast to expand at an annualised 3.1% over the five years through 2029-30, to $701.1 billion.

The Finance sector's operating environment was previously characterised by record-low interest rates. Nonetheless, high inflation prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate from May 2022 onwards. This shift allowed financial institutions to impose higher loan charges, propelling their revenue. Banks raised interest rates quicker than funding costs in the first half of 2022-23, boosting net interest margins. However, sophisticated competition and digital disruption have reshaped the sector and nibbled at the Big Four's dominance, weighing on ADIs' performance. In the first half of 2025, the fierce competition has forced ADIs to trim lending rates even ahead of RBA moves to protect their slice of the mortgage market. Higher cash rates initially widened net interest margins, but the expiry of cheap TFF funding and a fierce mortgage war are now compressing spreads, weighing on ADIs' profitability. Although ANZ's 2024 Suncorp Bank takeover highlights some consolidation, the real contest is unfolding in tech. Larger financial institutions are combatting intensified competition from neobanks and fintechs by upscaling their technology investments, strengthening their strategic partnerships with cloud providers and technology consulting firms and augmenting their digital offerings. Notable examples include the launch of ANZ Plus by ANZ and Commonwealth Bank's Unloan. Meanwhile, investor demand for rental properties, elevated residential housing prices and sizable state-infrastructure pipelines have continued to underpin loan growth, offsetting the drag from weaker mortgage affordability and volatile business sentiment. Overall, subdivision revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 8.3% over the five years through 2024-25, to $524.6 billion. This growth trajectory includes an estimated 4.8% decline in 2024-25 driven by rate cuts in 2025, which will weigh on income from interest-bearing assets. The Big Four banks will double down on technology investments and partnerships to counter threats from fintech startups and neobanks. As cybersecurity risks and APRA regulations evolve, financial institutions will gear up to strengthen their focus on shielding sensitive customer data and preserving trust, lifting compliance and operational costs. In the face of fierce competition, evolving regulations and shifting customer preferences, consolidation through M&As is poised to be a viable trend for survival and growth, especially among smaller financial institutions like credit unions. While rate cuts will challenge profitability within the sector, expansionary economic policies are poised to stimulate business and mortgage lending activity, presenting opportunities for strategic growth in a dynamic market. These trends are why Finance subdivision revenue is forecast to rise by an annualised 1.1% over the five years through the end of 2029-30, to $554.9 billion

Mortgage Rate in Australia increased to 5.98 percent in May from 5.97 percent in March of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Australia Mortgage Rate.

Manufacturers have faced fluctuations in downstream household, building and tourism markets over the past five years. Overall, industry revenue is expected to have grown at an annualised 3.4% over the five years through 2024-25, to $640.0 million. Growth in capital expenditure on non-residential building construction has underpinned sales of relocatable buildings like modular classrooms, pop-up kiosks and site storage facilities. Sales in the commercial property market helped cushion the industry from a slump in the housing construction market and the pandemic-induced collapse in prefabricated tourism and holiday building sales. Some manufacturers benefited from the surge in household spending on backyard buildings during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stay-at-home restrictions and a boost in household discretionary incomes during the pandemic encouraged spending on granny flats, home studios, cubbyhouses, gazebos and outdoor gyms. However, household spending has dried up in recent years in the face of mounting cost-of-living pressures. Industry revenue is anticipated to contract 2.0% in 2024-25, corresponding with slumping residential building construction and household discretionary incomes in response to hiked mortgage interest rates. The recent deterioration in sales has contributed to a minor reduction in industry participation, which has fallen from a high point in 2021-22. The industry’s profit margin has also recently narrowed, contracting from a peak in 2022-23, although it has risen overall over the past five years. A return to favourable trends in residential building construction and household discretionary incomes will underpin the industry's solid performance in the coming years. Industry revenue is forecast to climb at an annualised 3.5% over the five years to 2029-30, to $759.0 million. The industry's penetration into the traditional housing market will climb as technological advances improve prefabricated wooden buildings' competitiveness against on-site built housing. Opportunities for prefabricated building sales will remain solid in the non-residential property market. Some manufacturers will continue to benefit from the solid growth in the need for domestic and international tourist accommodation.

Divergent trends in the building and infrastructure sectors have constrained the Construction division’s performance through the end of 2024-25, with revenue expected to drop by an annualised 1.2% to $521.2 billion. Rollercoaster-like trends in the residential building market and pandemic-related supply chain disruptions have constrained the performance of homebuilders and many special construction service industries. Still, favourable trends in non-residential building construction and non-building infrastructure construction generate buoyant conditions for some Construction division segments. New house construction surged to a record peak in 2021-22, supported by the Federal Government’s HomeBuilder stimulus and record-low interest rates. Still, new house construction has plunged in recent years following the hike in mortgage interest rates as the RBA seeks to quell inflation. Many small homebuilders have hit the wall in response to intense competition, escalating input costs and plunging profit margins. Conversely, the construction of multi-unit apartments and townhouses has gradually recovered from the deep trough in 2021-22 as investors return to address the severe rental shortages in the face of mounting population pressures. Divisional revenue contracted with the 2023-24 housing slump and is expected to sink 3.2% in 2024-25. Some large prime and specialist trade contractors have derived substantial stimulus from constructing landmark road and rail developments, including the WestConnex motorway in Sydney and the Cross River Rail in Brisbane. Similarly, conditions have been strong for contractors working on non-residential building projects, particularly accelerated growth in the construction of industrial warehouses and distribution facilities. Favourable trends in the residential building market are forecast to underpin modest growth in Construction division revenue at an annualised 1.2% over the five years through 2029-30 to $554.0 billion. Many prime building and special construction contractors will benefit from an upswing in demand for constructing multi-unit dwellings and, to a lesser extent, single-unit housing and home renovations. The housing market will benefit from the initiatives under the National Housing Accord. Construction activity will remain stable in the non-residential market. At the same time, the principal constraint on the Construction division will come from the staged completion of several landmark road and rail projects.