Financial leasing revenue is expected to remain flat over the five years through 2024-25, sitting at £16.1 billion, including growth of 5.2% in 2024-25. Financial lessors have navigated a turbulent environment over recent years, responding to aggressive rate hikes from the Bank of England ratcheting up borrowing costs. The regulatory climate has also seen significant changes, with financial lessors seeing their accounting and reporting costs climb following changes to the International Accounting Standards. This involved putting leases of more than one year on the balance sheet of the lessee. A rising base rate environment through 2023-24 amid spiralling inflation has aided interest income despite demand being softened by subdued economic growth. Interest rates remained high in 2023-24 as inflation proved sticky, lifting interest income for each transaction, but softening demand as lessees faced greater interest payments, dampening revenue growth. Making things worse, lessors may choose to bear the brunt of interest rate hikes to sustain demand, threatening profitability. In 2024-25, with inflation contained, interest rates will continue coming down, supporting leasing activity through a reduction in interest payments for lessees. However, regulatory changes related to Basel III introductions and new International Accounting Standards will weigh on the average industry profit margin, though they have benefited the Financial Leasing industry's reputation. Lessors have also been proactive in limiting exposure to changes in the value of the pound, which has been particularly volatile in recent years. Lessors entering into forward contracts to lock in exchange rates for a future date have been better able to fend of fluctuations in the pound, supporting profitability. Financial leasing revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.3% to reach £19.9 billion. The higher base rate environment will become the norm for financial lessors, forcing them to adapt to higher borrowing costs to maintain healthy profit. Compliance with legislative changes related to Brexit will also place pressure on profitability. However, the delay of the Basel III reforms will provide banks with flexibility when lending, feeding into lower borrower costs for lessors and supporting profit. The rise of financial technology will also spur technological innovation related to big data analysis for data collected from asset monitoring systems.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner. The dataset consists of eight waves of survey data which were collected online by Kantar Public between July 2017 and August 2019, with one wave approximately every three months. There were 5300 respondents in wave 1, 3600 in wave 2, and around 3000 in each thereafter. After the first, each wave consists of a mix of return respondents from previous wave(s) and fresh 'top up' respondents. The aim was for each wave to be a representative sample of the UK, and as such efforts were made to recruit top-up respondents from groups with higher attrition rates (e.g. young Londoners). A cross-sectional weighting variable is provided for each wave. Respondents were selected from the 'Lightspeed panel'. On response to the invitation, respondents read about the aims of the study before actively opting in. The eight surveys consist of a set of core questions on the topics of the Brexit negotiations, national identity, Brexit identity, political party identity interest in politics, most important issue, and political efficacy. There is a set of rotating topics including attitudes to immigration (various aspects), values, and social status. One-off topics include nostalgia, political knowledge, cultural capital, art preferences, experts, motivation for referendum vote, and more. Socio-demographic information was collected the first time the respondent took part in the study. We asked questions in every round including job status and subjective income, and asked about social class to all respondents in wave 5. There is one file for each wave of data, but in addition, the data are provided in a single combined file in 'long format', where each respondent has a row of data for each wave in which they participated. Identifier and wave variables are provided. Main Topics: Public attitudes towards Brexit, the negotiations, and associated issues such as immigration, sovereignty, and knowledge of the EU. The data also include socio-demographic variables, and many other relevant topics such as cultural capital, nostalgia, trust, political efficacy, and national and party identity. Quota sample Self-administered questionnaire: Web-based (CAWI)

The UK retail banking market, valued at approximately £68.77 billion in 2025, is projected to experience steady growth, driven by several key factors. The increasing adoption of digital banking solutions, including online platforms and mobile apps, is significantly impacting market dynamics. Consumers are increasingly demanding convenient and personalized financial services, prompting banks to invest heavily in technological upgrades and user-friendly interfaces. Furthermore, the rise of fintech companies is fostering competition and innovation, leading to the introduction of new products and services, such as mobile payment systems and personalized financial management tools. While Brexit initially presented challenges, the market has shown resilience, with banks adapting to new regulatory environments and focusing on strengthening customer relationships. The segment showing the strongest growth is likely online banking, driven by younger demographics' preference for digital interactions and increased smartphone penetration. However, the market also faces constraints such as increasing regulatory scrutiny, cybersecurity threats, and the need for continuous investment in technology to maintain a competitive edge. Growth in the wealth management segment will also contribute to the overall market expansion, fueled by a rising affluent population and increasing demand for sophisticated investment services. The continued expansion of the market is expected to be spread across multiple channels, reflecting the diverse preferences of UK consumers. The projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.45% suggests a consistent, albeit moderate, expansion of the UK retail banking market over the forecast period (2025-2033). This growth is likely to be influenced by macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. The market's segmentation highlights the diverse nature of customer needs, with significant opportunities for banks to cater to specific demographics, such as high-net-worth individuals and small businesses. Strategic partnerships with fintech companies and the development of innovative financial products tailored to specific segments will play a crucial role in determining future market leaders. The continued dominance of established players such as HSBC, Barclays, and Lloyds Banking Group is anticipated, but they will likely face increased competition from challenger banks and international players. The overall market outlook remains positive, contingent upon maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustained consumer confidence. This in-depth report provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK retail banking market, covering the period from 2019 to 2033. It delves into market dynamics, competitive landscapes, and future growth projections, providing invaluable insights for businesses and investors operating within or considering entry into this dynamic sector. The report utilizes data from the historical period (2019-2024), with a base year of 2025 and a forecast period spanning 2025-2033. The study highlights key trends, challenges, and opportunities within the £XXX million market. Recent developments include: August 2024: Lloyds Bank launched a USD 137 cash offer for students opening current accounts. To qualify, students must deposit at least USD 622 between August 1 and October 31, 2024. Student account holders will also receive a 20% discount on selected Student Union events and can earn 2% interest on balances up to USD 6,219.September 2023: HSBC pioneered a partnership with Nova Credit, making it the first UK bank to allow newcomers to access their credit history from abroad. This initiative aims to facilitate smoother financial integration for individuals relocating to the United Kingdom.. Key drivers for this market are: The Shift Toward Digital Banking, with Customers Increasingly Using Online and Mobile Banking Services. Potential restraints include: The Shift Toward Digital Banking, with Customers Increasingly Using Online and Mobile Banking Services. Notable trends are: Deposit Trends and Digital Transformation Driving Traditional Banking.

The UK’s total loan balances outstanding (including credit card balances, personal loan balances, and residential mortgage balances outstanding) recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% during 2014-18 to reach £1,626.6bn ($2,075.6bn). The majority of loan balances outstanding are from home loans, with residential mortgage balances outstanding accounting for 86.7% of total balances in 2018, followed by personal loans (8.8%) and credit cards (4.5%). However, uncertainty on account of Brexit and its impact on the economy will affect the growth of total loan balances outstanding in the coming years. As a result, we estimate total loan balances outstanding to record a subdued CAGR of 2.7% over 2019-23. The UK lending space is dominated by Lloyds Banking Group, Barclays, and RBS Group – a trend that is anticipated to continue over the coming years. However, they may face increased competition from non-bank lenders, digital banks, and digital lending platforms breaking into the market and offering low interest rates and hassle-free loan approvals. The savings market in the UK recorded a CAGR of 3.9% over 2014-18 to reach £1,433.7bn ($1,829.4bn) in 2018. The market grew at a higher rate compared to loan balances during the five-year review period due to economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Read More

During 2022, the GBP/USD exchange rate reached its lowest value ever recorded after the UK government announced its initial plans to combat inflation. Prices did increase again after these plans were turned back shortly after. As of July 29, 2025, one pound was valued at roughly 1.34 U.S. dollars.What affects an exchange rate?There are several factors that can impact an exchange rate. In terms of the current situation, the political and economic standings surrounding Brexit are probably the largest driver in the current form of the British pound. Other factors include inflation and interest rates, public debts, and deficits, as well as the country's export prices to import prices ratio.British pound to EuroSince the United Kingdom (UK) held a referendum on its European Union membership in June 2016, the British pound's (GBP) standing against the Euro has also been impacted. During the first half of 2020, the British pound against the Euro weakened overall.

Fasteners are essential components in many products and structures, and UK manufacturers typically target niche high-value segments, like the aerospace and automotive sectors. The domestic industry is small compared with the global market, and most UK companies are subsidiaries of foreign-owned global companies. A booming UK construction activity and resilient industrial production sector supported revenue growth and fastener sales. However, motor vehicle manufacturing contracted amid high uncertainty following the EU referendum. The weak pound has aided export growth, but intense import penetration from overseas manufacturers has intensified competition. Over the five years through 2023-24, industry revenue is expected to drop at a compound annual rate of 0.7% to £752.6 million. The economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 outbreak significantly reduced manufacturing revenue over 2020-21, exacerbated by disrupted supply chains, trade flow and weak investment. 2021-22 and 2022-23 saw a recovery in the UK construction and manufacturing sector, contributing to a 12.5% rebound in revenue. Over 2023-24, revenue is forecast to edge downwards by 0.3% as downstream markets face sky-high inflation and high-interest rates. Fierce import competition and supply chain bottlenecks have constrained profitability since the COVID-19 outbreak, preventing manufacturers from expanding output capacity. At 5.7%, the average industry operating margin remains below pre-pandemic levels over 2023-24. Over the five years through 2028-29, industry revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 2.4% to reach £846.9 million. Domestic and foreign downstream market activity will drive revenue opportunities, particularly within the automotive and aerospace sectors. UK industrial production activity will improve as the UK slowly overcomes the slow puncture of Brexit on the economy and raises its productivity to the levels seen across the G7. A free trade deal between the UK and the EU will minimise the export disruption associated with Brexit. Assisted by government schemes, residential construction activity will continue expanding. However, the rising value of the pound could weigh on export prospects.

The economy of the United Kingdom shrank by 0.1 percent in May 2025, after shrinking by 0.3 percent in April 2025. As of the most recent month, the UK economy is around 4.4 percent larger than it was in February 2020, just before the start of COVID-19 lockdowns. After a record 19.6 percent decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy quickly returned to growth in the following months, and grew through most of 2021. Cost of living crisis lingers into 2025 As of December 2024, just over half of people in the UK reported that their cost of living was higher than it was in the previous month. Although this is a decline from the peak of the crisis in 2022 when over 90 percent of people reported a higher cost of living, households are evidently still under severe pressure. While wage growth has outpaced inflation since July 2023, overall consumer prices were 20 percent higher in late 2024 than they were in late 2021. For food and energy, which lower income households spend more on, late 2024 prices were almost 30 percent higher when compared with late 2021. According to recent estimates, living standards, as measured by changes in disposable income fell by 2.1 percent in 2022/23, but did start to grow again in 2023/24. Late 2023 recession followed by growth in 2024 In December 2023, the UK economy was approximately the same size as it was a year earlier, and struggled to achieve modest growth throughout that year. Going into 2023, a surge in energy costs, as well as high interest rates, created an unfavorable environment for UK consumers and businesses. The inflationary pressures that drove these problems did start to subside, however, with inflation falling to 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although relatively strong economic growth occurred in the first half of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year, zero growth was reported in the third quarter of the year. Long-term issues, such as low business investment, weak productivity growth, and regional inequality, will likely continue to hamper the economy going forward.

Public sector net debt amounted to 95.8 percent of gross domestic product in the United Kingdom during the 2024/25 financial year, or 90 percent when the Bank of England is excluded. UK government debt is at its highest levels since the early 1960s, due to a significant increase in borrowing during the COVID-19 pandemic. After peaking at 251.7 percent shortly after the end of the Second World War, government debt in the UK gradually fell, before a sharp increase in the late 2000s at the time of the global financial crisis. Debt not expected to start falling until 2029/30 In 2024/25, the UK's government expenditure was approximately 1.28 trillion pounds, around 44.7 percent of GDP. This spending was financed by 1.13 trillion pounds of revenue raised, and 151 billion pounds of borrowing. Although the UK government can still borrow money in the future to finance its spending, the amount spent on debt interest has increased significantly recently. Recent forecasts suggest that while the debt is eventually expected to start declining, this is based on falling government deficits in the next five years. Government facing hard choices Hitting fiscal targets, such as reducing the national debt, will require a careful balancing of the books from the current government, and the possibility for either spending cuts or tax rises. Although Labour ruled out raising the main government tax sources, Income Tax, National Insurance, and VAT, at the 2024 election, they did raise National Insurance for employers (rather than employees) and also cut Winter Fuel allowances for large numbers of pensioners. Less than a year after implementing cuts to Winter Fuel, the government performed a U-Turn on the issue, and will make it widely available by the winter of 2025.

The Temporary-Employment Placement Agencies industry revenue is forecast to decline at a compound annual rate of 1% to £56.7 billion over the five years through 2024-25. The COVID-19 outbreak meant key employers of temporary workers in the sports and music events spaces completely shut their doors and businesses froze hiring, reducing clients for agencies. Sign-ups for temporary employment declined, hitting revenue in 2020-21. Companies pressed play immediately on hiring as the economy reopened in 2021-22 with record vacancies, particularly in the service sector, boosting revenue for recruiters since. A tight labour market is encouraging employers to rely on temporary-employment placement agencies to fight in an increasingly competitive market. Revenue is expected to rise by 1% in 2024-25. Rises in the National Living Wage (NLW) have disincentivised hiring additional staff to some extent. The NLW grew again to £11.44 in April 2024, raising the cost of temporary hires. With economic uncertainty continuing to dampen employer and candidate confidence in the two years through 2024-25, most recently stemming from the Autumn 2024 Budget that will increase employer national insurance contributions, businesses have slowed their hiring activity, disrupting agencies since there are fewer jobs to fill. This has dented the profit of many agencies who have had to cut costs by laying off employees throughout 2024-25. Inactivity is another mounting problem that recruiters are being confronted with. The number of available temporary employment positions has overall remained subdued in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak due to widespread business uncertainty amid an inflationary environment, Brexit-related recruiting challenges and high interest rates, limiting industry revenue growth. Still, temporary placements have fared better than permanent positions. Agency revenue is anticipated to climb over the five years through 2029-30 at a compound annual rate of 2.3% to £63.4 billion. Legislation relating to wage rates will adversely affect agencies, with a rising National Minimum Wage dampening demand for low-wage temporary employees. A talent shortage in the UK workforce will continue to challenge companies looking to fill vacancies, which are set to remain historically high despite gradually falling. Employers will keep turning to placement agencies for their databases to track and identify the right candidates. The gig economy is exhibiting signs of thriving through 2029-30, with the ONS anticipating 14.9 million participants in some capacity by 2026, another positive signal for temporary-employment placement agencies.

The Abrasive Product Manufacturing industry is dominated by four large companies, Saint-Gobain High Performance Solutions UK, 3M United Kingdom, Washington Mills Electro Minerals and Sia Abrasives, alongside a number of small players. Demand for abrasive products is largely determined by the level of demand from manufacturing and construction firms. Over the five years through 2024-25, revenue is expected to decline at a compound annual rate of 2.3% to £172 million, including growth of 0.6%. With the industry's main clients in the manufacturing and construction sectors enduring tough operating conditions in recent years, demand for abrasive products has deteriorated. The depreciation of the pound and intensifying import competition have contributed to weak demand, while high input costs have put pressure on profit. Abrasive product manufacturers have faced extremely challenging operating conditions since the COVID-19 outbreak, with demand from the industrial and construction sectors plummeting in 2020-21. Following a rebound during 2021-22 amid the gradual reopening of the economy, the residential construction market proved resilient to interest rate hikes and a gloomy economic outlook in 2022-23, only slowing at the tail end of the year. In 2024-25, these economic headwinds are likely to brighten but the lingering effects of the recession will hurt demand of the construction and industrial markets. Abrasive product manufacturing revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 1.8% over the five years through 2029-30 to £188 million. Ongoing government assistance will support demand from the residential and commercial construction markets. Profit margins will widen, with supply chain disruptions that have ratcheted up key input prices since the COVID-19 outbreak set to have fully subsided by 2024-25. The agreement on zero-tariff and zero-quotas on the trade of abrasive products following Brexit will also support trade. Yet, increased customs costs will hurt export volumes in the coming years.

In 2023, demand for UK-built cars grew by 16.8 percent year-on-year to some 905,100 units. The United Kingdom exports nearly eight out of 10 cars assembled in UK plants. Vulnerability to trade disruptions Sales and exports of UK-manufactured vehicles began to fall in 2016. Slumping investments amid Brexit fears, as well as higher costs of production, are likely to have contributed to a slowdown in demand. Since the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union, the British pound has fallen in value. This may have been expected to be good news for exporters, who garner more interest with relatively cheaper products. However, the weak pound is unfavorable for vehicle manufacturers due to their international supply chains. The European Union is the UK auto industry's leading trade partner, accounting for most of its car imports. EU markets also account for around six in 10 UK car exports. Inflation impacts new and used car sales The price inflation recorded in the United Kingdom impacted all product types, passenger cars included. New car purchases were the most affected by the soaring prices: Their consumer price index was at its highest in the past fifteen years in 2023. In contrast, the consumer price index for used car purchases decreased in 2023, down from its record-breaking 2022 value.

Over the five years through 2024-25, credit bureaux and rating agencies’ revenue is slated to fall at a compound annual rate of 5% to £2.3 billion. Geopolitical issues, particularly the forced stoppage of operations in Russia, have hurt the industry, mainly through lower deal rates and lost synergies with companies’ Russian branches. This also ate into profitability, cutting off some of the highest-ticket deals, which are the most profitable for rating agencies. Brexit restructuring has further influenced the market, with companies being forced to split their UK and EU operations. At the same time, weak economic conditions have held impeded revenue – low confidence and the high interest rate environment have meant there’s been less borrowing across the economy over the past few years, meaning less demand for the services credit rating agencies provide. In 2024-25, revenue is anticipated to climb by 3.2%. Increasingly favourable economic conditions, interest rate cuts and an upturn in deal-making are expected to stimulate borrowing. This will feed through to higher demand for credit rating services, as lenders require credit checks prior to approving loans. Over the five years through 2029-30, revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 2.7% to £2.7 billion. Mounting demand for ESG rating services, which have been brought in by a number of major rating agencies, will be a key driver of this growth. Additionally, falling rates and a likely end to skyrocketing inflation will provide a more suitable environment for borrowing, ramping up demand for credit rating services.

Revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 0.9% over the five years through 2024-25 to £31.7 billion. Electrical contractors serve the construction sector, so procyclical commercial and residential construction trends influence revenue prospects. Hence, economic uncertainty associated with Brexit, the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused year-on-year revenue volatility for the Electricians industry. The COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, has severely disrupted supply chains, leading to increased energy and raw materials costs. This surge in input costs has negatively impacted the profitability of electrical contractors. The cost-of-living crisis and retaliatory interest rate hikes contribute to a slowdown in private residential and commercial construction activity, reducing revenue prospects for electricians. Despite this, government policies have boosted construction activity, particularly in the residential market, with the government committed to raising the UK’s housing stock, which supports electricians’ tender opportunities. Additionally, the National Infrastructure and Construction Pipeline drives demand for electrical installation services through government investments in the UK's infrastructure. Revenue is expected to expand by 4% in 2024-25. Over the five years through 2029-30, revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 2.8% to reach £37.7 billion. Recovering economic conditions will aid in a rebound in demand from the commercial market and government policy support for residential and public infrastructure construction will drive contract opportunities. Technological advancements in smart home solutions and renewable energy integration will present lucrative opportunities for electricians. Electrical contractors who adapt to evolving market demands and embrace technological innovations will be well-positioned to capitalise on solid revenue prospects and profitable opportunities.