House prices grew year-on-year in most states in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2024. The District of Columbia was the only exception, with a decline of three percent. The annual appreciation for single-family housing in the U.S. was 0.71 percent, while in Hawaii—the state where homes appreciated the most—the increase exceeded 10 percent. How have home prices developed in recent years? House price growth in the U.S. has been going strong for years. In 2024, the median sales price of a single-family home exceeded 413,000 U.S. dollars, up from 277,000 U.S. dollars five years ago. One of the factors driving house prices was the cost of credit. The record-low federal funds effective rate allowed mortgage lenders to set mortgage interest rates as low as 2.3 percent. With interest rates on the rise, home buying has also slowed, causing fluctuations in house prices. Why are house prices growing? Many markets in the U.S. are overheated because supply has not been able to keep up with demand. How many homes enter the housing market depends on the construction output, whereas the availability of existing homes for purchase depends on many other factors, such as the willingness of owners to sell. Furthermore, growing investor appetite in the housing sector means that prospective homebuyers have some extra competition to worry about. In certain metros, for example, the share of homes bought by investors exceeded 20 percent in 2024.

In the United States, interest rates for all mortgage types started to increase in 2021. This was due to the Federal Reserve introducing a series of hikes in the federal funds rate to contain the rising inflation. In the first quarter of 2024, the 30-year fixed rate declined slightly, to 6.75 percent. Despite the cut, this was about 3.9 percentage points higher than the same quarter in 2021. Why have U.S. home sales decreased? Cheaper mortgages normally encourage consumers to buy homes, while higher borrowing costs have the opposite effect. As interest rates increased in 2022, the number of existing homes sold plummeted. Soaring house prices over the past 10 years have further affected housing affordability. Between 2013 and 2023, the median price of an existing single-family home risen by about 88 percent. On the other hand, the median weekly earnings have risen much slower. Comparing mortgage terms and rates Between 2008 and 2023, the average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States stood between 2.28 and 6.11 percent. Over the same period, a 30-year mortgage term averaged a fixed-rate of between 3.08 and 6.81 percent. Rates on 15-year loan terms are lower to encourage a quicker repayment, which helps to improve a homeowner’s equity.

Global house prices experienced a significant shift in 2022, with advanced economies seeing a notable decline after a prolonged period of growth. The real house price index (adjusted for inflation) for advanced economies peaked at nearly 140 index points in early 2022 before falling to around 132 points by the first quarter of 2024. This represents a reversal of the upward trend that had characterized the housing market for roughly a decade. Conversely, real house prices in emerging economies resumed growing, after a brief correction in the second half of 2022. What is behind the slowdown? Inflation and slow economic growth have been the primary drivers for the cooling of the housing market. Secondly, the growing gap between incomes and house prices since 2012 has decreased the affordability of homeownership. Last but not least, homebuyers in 2024 faced dramatically higher mortgage interest rates, further contributing to worsening sentiment and declining transactions. Some markets continue to grow While many countries witnessed a deceleration in house price growth in 2022, some markets continued to see substantial increases. Turkey, in particular, stood out with a nominal increase in house prices of over 55 percent in the 1st quarter of 2024. Other countries that recorded a two-digit growth include Russia and the United Arab Emirates. When accounting for inflation, the three countries with the fastest growing residential prices in early 2024 were the United Arab Emirates, Poland, and Bulgaria.

Mortgage interest rates in Czechia have experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years, reaching a peak of nearly six percent in December 2022 before gradually declining. As of December 2024, the interest rate on new mortgages in the country amounted to 4.8 percent, showing a slight decrease from the previous month. This trend in mortgage rates has occurred alongside substantial increases in housing prices. Housing market dynamics The changes in mortgage rates have gone hand in hand with notable shifts in the Czech housing market. Despite the high-interest rates, new mortgage lending reached over 18.7 million Czech koruna in December 2024, marking a significant increase from the same month in the previous year. This growth in lending has continued despite the steady rise in housing prices, with the house price index reaching 219.9 in the third quarter of 2024. This marks a significant increase from the 2015 baseline, reflecting the ongoing upward trend. The average purchase price per square meter for family houses increasing across the country. In 2023, Prague recorded the highest average price at 111,087 Czech koruna per square meter. Construction sector trends The construction sector in Czechia has shown its response to these market conditions. The index of multi-dwelling building construction fluctuated recently, with 2024 showing a slight decrease to 83.8 index points compared to the previous year. However, regarding non-residential buildings, the construction has been continuously growing since 2018 with hotels and industrial buildings accounting for the majority of new non-residential constructions.

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Real Estate Market Size 2025-2029

The real estate market size is forecast to increase by USD 1,258.6 billion at a CAGR of 5.6% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant shifts and innovations, with both residential and commercial sectors adapting to new trends and challenges. In the commercial realm, e-commerce growth is driving the demand for logistics and distribution centers, while virtual reality technology is revolutionizing property viewings. Europe's commercial real estate sector is witnessing a rise in smart city development, incorporating LED lighting and data centers to enhance sustainability and efficiency. In the residential sector, wellness real estate is gaining popularity, focusing on health and well-being. Real estate software and advertising services are essential tools for asset management, streamlining operations, and reaching potential buyers. Regulatory uncertainty remains a challenge, but innovation in construction technologies, such as generators and renewable energy solutions, is helping mitigate risks.

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The market continues to exhibit strong activity, driven by rising population growth and increasing demand for personal household space. Both residential and commercial sectors have experienced a rebound in home sales and leasing activity. The trend towards live-streaming rooms and remote work has further fueled demand for housing and commercial real estate. Economic conditions and local market dynamics influence the direction of the market, with interest rates playing a significant role in investment decisions. Fully furnished, semi-furnished, and unfurnished properties, as well as rental properties, remain popular options for buyers and tenants. Offline transactions continue to dominate, but online transactions are gaining traction.
The market encompasses a diverse range of assets, including land, improvements, buildings, fixtures, roads, structures, utility systems, and undeveloped property. Vacant land and undeveloped property present opportunities for investors, while the construction and development of new housing and commercial projects contribute to the market's overall growth.

How is this Real Estate Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Type

  Residential
  Commercial
  Industrial


Business Segment

  Rental
  Sales


Manufacturing Type

  New construction
  Renovation and redevelopment
  Land development


Geography

  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan
    South Korea


  North America

    Canada
    US


  Europe

    Germany
    UK


  South America

    Brazil


  Middle East and Africa

By Type Insights

The residential segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The market encompasses the buying and selling of properties designed for dwelling purposes, including buildings, single-family homes, apartments, townhouses, and more. Factors fueling growth in this sector include the increasing homeownership rate among millennials and urbanization trends. The Asia Pacific region, specifically China, dominates the market due to escalating homeownership rates. In India, the demand for affordable housing is a major driver, with initiatives like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) spurring the development of affordable housing projects catering to the needs of lower and middle-income groups. The commercial real estate segment, consisting of office buildings, shopping malls, hotels, and other commercial properties, is also experiencing growth.

Furthermore, economic and local market conditions, interest rates, and investment opportunities in fully furnished, semi-furnished, unfurnished properties, and rental properties influence the market dynamics. Technological integration, infrastructure development, and construction projects further shape the real estate landscape. Key sectors like transportation, logistics, agriculture, and the e-commerce sector also impact the market.

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The Residential segment was valued at USD 1440.30 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Regional Analysis

APAC is estimated to contribute 64% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period.

Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period.

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The Asia Pacific region holds the largest share of The market, dr

The mortgage interest rate in Germany decreased notably between 2013 and 2022, falling below 1.5 percent. This was part of an overall trend of falling mortgage interest rates in Europe. The mortgage interest rate in Germany has since increased to 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2024. The German mortgage market In Europe, Germany is the second-largest mortgage market, with a total value of mortgages outstanding amounting to over 1.8 trillion euros. Mortgage loans are one of the oldest bank products. Among the factors that influence mortgage interest rates are inflation, economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market, the stability of lenders, and the overall conditions of the housing market. Mortgage loans The higher cost of borrowing has a significant effect on the market: While the interest rates were at their lowest, mortgage lending was on the rise. In 2023, when the rates reached a 10-year-high, the quarterly gross mortgage lending fell to the lowest value since 2014. Meanwhile, house prices have also increased substantially in recent years. According to the House Price Index in Germany, between 2015 and 2022, house prices increased by over 60 percent.

In 2023, three quarters of respondents in Portugal reported being negatively impacted by the rising house prices, while 10 percent claimed to benefit from them. The rising interest rates worried 55 percent of interviewees, preventing almost 24 percent of them from buying a house. Furthermore more than 60 percent of respondents stated that they were not financially able to buy or restore a house.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

As of May 2023, the average monthly interest rate for house loans in Indonesia was 7.46 percent. The country's house loan interest rate has gradually decreased over the past few years, with a drop of around 1.26 percent compared to the rate in January 2020.

House financing and ownership in Indonesia With mortgage interest rates anticipated to remain lower compared to the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level, Indonesia's residential property market is expected to continue growing. Indonesian banks provided mortgage loans exceeding 500 trillion Indonesian rupiah monthly between January 2022 and May 2023, catering to the majority of Indonesians who rely on loans to finance their homeownership needs. Notably, house ownership rates in Indonesian rural areas are significantly higher compared to urban areas. Amid its soaring land and house prices, Jakarta struggled with the lowest house ownership rate of any province in Indonesia.

Housing prices Despite its significant housing backlog that underscores the need for affordable housing, Indonesia's residential property price index has steadily increased in recent years. Cities like Batam, Pontianak, Bandar Lampung, and Greater Jakarta have seen the highest increases in property prices. With Indonesia's plan to relocate its capital to East Kalimantan, the property market in this province and its surrounding regions is also poised for increased investment opportunities.

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Home Equity Lending Market Size 2025-2029

The home equity lending market size is forecast to increase by USD 48.16 billion at a CAGR of 4.7% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant growth due to several key trends. One major factor driving market expansion is the massive increase in home prices, which has resulted in homeowners having more equity in their properties. Another trend is the rise in residential property values, leading to an increase in the number of homeowners with sufficient equity to access loans or lines of credit, with property management and digital lending playing a significant role in facilitating these transactions.
However, the lengthy procedures involved in securing these loans can present challenges for both lenders and borrowers. Despite this, the benefits of lending, such as lower interest rates compared to other types of debt, make it an attractive option for many consumers looking to finance home improvements, debt consolidation, or other major expenses. Overall, the market is poised for continued growth in the coming years.

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The market in the United States has experienced significant growth, driven by the increasing collateral value of residential real estate and the resulting equity available to borrowers. Monetary authorities' efforts to keep inflation in check and stable housing prices have contributed to this trend. Homeowners have utilized loans and lines of credit to fund various expenses, including home improvements, tax deductions, and debt consolidation.



The interest rate on these loans often remains competitive with other forms of borrowing, making them an attractive option for many. Banks and credit unions are the primary providers of these loans, offering borrowers the ability to access a lump sum amount or a revolving line of credit secured against their residence and property. Regulatory restrictions on high-interest debt and outstanding mortgages may impact the market's growth, but the demand for loans is expected to remain strong as homeowners continue to seek ways to access the value of their homes.

How is this Home Equity Lending Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The home equity lending industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Source

  Mortgage and credit union
  Commercial banks
  Others


Distribution Channel

  Offline
  Online


Geography

  North America

    Canada
    US


  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    France


  APAC

    China
    Japan
    South Korea


  South America



  Middle East and Africa

By Source Insights

The mortgage and credit union segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Home equity lending is a financing solution for homeowners looking to access the value of their property. Mortgage and credit unions serve as trusted providers in this market, offering various financial services including loans and lines of credit. These institutions not only offer consumer loans but also manage deposits, handle checking and savings accounts, disburse credit and debit cards, and grant house loans. Credit unions, in particular, provide personalized services with live representatives, ensuring a human touch in understanding complex financial matters.

Homeowners can secure competitive rates on loans through credit unions, making them a preferred choice over other lenders. With a strong focus on consumer protection and affordability, mortgage and credit unions are an excellent option for homeowners seeking to tap into their for renovation projects or other financial needs.

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The mortgage and credit union segment was valued at USD 82.39 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Regional Analysis

North America is estimated to contribute 47% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period.

Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period.

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The market in North America experienced notable growth in 2024, driven by the increase in home values and fewer regulations. Homeowners in Canada have been utilizing their properties as collateral for loans, with residential mortgages accounting for 74% of household debt and lines of credit for 16%. The balance of Lines of Credit (HELOC) rose by 1% to USD 128 billion in February 2022.

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In September 2023, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached 5.1 percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2022, reaching close to 1.3 million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-10 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for fourth straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About five million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to 199 British pounds by 2026.

Geneva, Switzerland, was the most expensive city to buy an apartment in Europe in the first quarter of 2024. The square meter price in Geneva was nearly 15,650 euros in that quarter, about 2,000 euros higher than the second city in the ranking, Zurich. Cost of rent Rents across the major cities in Europe increased significantly in 2023. One of the main factors driving high rents across European cities is the same as any other consumer-driven business. If demand outweighs supply, prices will inflate. The drive for high paid professionals to be located centrally in prime locations, mixed with the low levels of available space, high land, and construction costs, all help keep rental prices increasing. Mortgage rates The average mortgage interest rates across Europe in 2023 were all under five percent, except in Czechia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland. On an individual level, a difference of one percent would most likely mean thousands of euros in interest on the mortgage a person is paying, making timing key in house purchasing. Mortgage interest rates tend to be lower in Nordic countries due to the financial stability and reliability of its borrowers. Other factors that influence the mortgage interest rates include inflation, economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market and the overall conditions of the housing market. More stable markets also tend to have higher average prices.

The house price index (HPI) shows changes in the value of residential properties in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. With the HPI set at a base of 100 in January 2015, a value of over 100 would mark an increase in the average dwelling price. A value of under 100 points, on the other hand, would indicate that the average price has dropped. House price index in the UK The HPI fluctuated in 2023, after peaking in November 2022. In December 2023, the index stood at 149 index points, which was a slight decline from December 2022. This trend in the index, and therefore the value of UK residential properties, has also been observed by the Halifax house price index. Average house prices Average house prices are affected by several factors. Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all drive them up or down. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and the competitive market created will push house prices up. An excess of housing, on the other hand, means prices fall to stimulate buyers.

Montevideo, Uruguay's capital, leads Latin American cities with the highest apartment sale prices in 2024, averaging 3,454 U.S. dollars per square meter. This figure surpasses other major metropolitan areas like Mexico City and Buenos Aires, highlighting significant disparities in real estate markets across the region. The data underscores the varying economic conditions and housing demand in different Latin American urban centers. Regional housing market trends While Montevideo tops the list for apartment prices, other countries in Latin America have experienced notable changes in their housing markets. Chile, for instance, saw the most substantial increase in house prices since 2010, with its nominal house price index surpassing 342 points in early 2024. However, when adjusted for inflation, Mexico showed the highest inflation-adjusted percentage increase in house prices, growing by nearly five percent in the first quarter of 2024, contrasting with a global decline of one percent. Home financing in Mexico The methods of home financing vary across Latin America. A breakdown of homeownership by financing method in Mexico reveals that about two-thirds of owner-occupied housing units were financed through personal resources in 2022. Nevertheless, government-backed loans such as Infonavit (Mexico’s National Housing Fund Institute), Fovissste (Housing Fund of the Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers), and Fonhapo (National Fund for Popular Housing), play an important role for homebuyers, with just over 20 percent of home purchases relying on such finance. Bank credit, which offers mortgage loans with interest rates ranging between nine and 12 percent, appeared as a less popular option.

As of December 2024, the average interest rate for a new standard 1-year residential mortgage in New Zealand was 6.3 percent. In comparison, the average 5-year interest rate for a residential mortgage was 6.15 percent. Average interest rates for new standard residential mortgages in the country started to trend upward from mid-2021. Rates peaked toward the end of 2023 and have begun trending downward.

Retail properties had the highest capitalization rates in the United States in 2023, followed by offices. The cap rate for office real estate was 6.54 percent in the fourth quarter of the year and was forecast to rise further to 7.39 percent in 2024. Cap rates measure the expected rate of return on investment, and show the net operating income of a property as a percentage share of the current asset value. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it also suggests a higher risk. Why have cap rates increased? The increase in cap rates is a consequence of a repricing in the commercial real estate sector. According to the National NCREIF Property Return Index, prices for commercial real estate declined across all property types in 2023. Rental growth was slow during the same period, resulting in a negative annual return. The increase in cap rates reflects the increased risk in the investment environment. Pricing uncertainty in the commercial real estate sector Between 2014 and 2021, commercial property prices in the U.S. enjoyed steady growth. Access to credit with low interest rates facilitated economic growth and real estate investment. As inflation surged in the following two years, lending policy tightened. That had a significant effect on the sector. First, it worsened sentiment among occupiers. Second, it led to a decline in demand for commercial spaces and commercial real estate investment volumes. Uncertainty about the future development of interest rates and occupier demand further contributed to the repricing of real estate assets.

Average house prices are affected by several factors: Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all affect average prices. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and, therefore, competitive market created will push up house prices, whereas an excess of housing means prices fall to stimulate buyers. Location, location, location In December 2023, the average house price in England was more expensive than in any other country. This huge disparity in average house prices is in no small part down to the country's capital city, where the average asking price was more than double that of the UK’s average. Even in London, for those who can afford a mortgage, the savings made through buying over renting can be beneficial. House prices still set to grow In 2024, the number of housing transactions in the UK is set to fall to 1.1 million. With the expected decline in transactions, the average house price is also set to stagnate across the UK.

The price of residential property in New Zealand was the highest in the Auckland region in December 2024, with an average sale price of around one million New Zealand dollars. The most populated city in the country, Auckland, has consistently reported higher house prices compared to most other regions. Buying property in New Zealand, particularly in its major cities, is expensive. The nation has one of the highest house-price-to-income ratios in the world. Auckland residential market The residential housing market in Auckland is competitive. Prices have been slowly decreasing; the Auckland region experienced an annual decrease in the average residential house price in December 2024 compared to the same month in the previous year. The price of residential property in Auckland was the highest in the North Shore City district, with an average sale price of around 1.21 million New Zealand dollars. Home financing Due to the rising cost of real estate, an increasing number of New Zealanders who want to own their own property are taking on mortgages. Most residential mortgage lending in New Zealand went to owner-occupier borrowers, followed by first home buyers. In addition to mortgage lending, previously under the KiwiSaver HomeStart initiative, first-home buyers in New Zealand were able to apply to withdraw all or part of their KiwiSaver retirement savings to assist with purchasing a first home. Nonetheless, the scheme was discontinued in May 2024. Furthermore, even with a large initial deposit, it may take decades for many borrowers to pay off their mortgage.

After a period of record-low mortgage interest rates, the cost of mortgage borrowing in Germany surged in 2022. In 2019, mortgage rates declined notably, falling as low as 1.16 percent in December 2020. This downward trend reversed in 2021, as mortgage rates started to gradually pick up. Five-to-ten-year mortgage loans had the lowest rates in October 2023 at 3.85 percent, while floating rate mortgages up to one year were the most expensive at 5.53 percent. Mortgages with over 10-year fixed period – the most popular loan type among homebuyers - had an interest rate of 3.9 percent.

Why did mortgage rates in Germany increase?

In 2022, the yearly inflation rate in Germany experienced a swift rise, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates to counter this surge. The European Central Bank (ECB) is responsible for determining Germany's central bank interest rate. In July 2022, following a prolonged period of stability, the average interest rates in Germany began a steady rise, which persisted consistently thereafter.  This increase is intended to stabilize prices, but it also means higher borrowing costs for those seeking mortgages.

Downturn in Germany's home loan borrowing

From 2022 onward, the gross residential mortgage lending in Germany fell dramatically. Besides the higher interest rates, the downturn can be explained by the slowed pace of economic growth, which makes individuals and businesses more cautious about big investments such as buying a home. Additionally, the German housing market suffers a chronic undersupply, meaning that homebuyers often struggle to find an affordable home to purchase.

In December 2024, the West Coast region recorded the largest annual change in residential property prices in New Zealand, with an increase of around 24.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. The national median price for residential property in New Zealand was 775,000 New Zealand dollars in that month, marking a slight decrease from December 2023.