Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Lower data was reported at 21.400 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 23.300 % for Mar 2025. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Lower data is updated monthly, averaging 12.100 % from Jun 1987 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 455 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 45.800 % in Jan 1991 and a record low of 5.200 % in Jun 2018. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Lower data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Conference Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H051: Consumer Confidence Index: Interest Rate Expectation. [COVID-19-IMPACT]
The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
United States CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Go Down data was reported at 4.000 % in May 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.000 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Go Down data is updated monthly, averaging 11.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 54.000 % in Jun 1980 and a record low of 3.000 % in May 2014. United States CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Go Down data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: No one can say for sure, but what do you think will happen to interest rates for borrowing money during the next 12 months -- will they go up, stay the same, or go down?
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The benchmark interest rate in Pakistan was last recorded at 11 percent. This dataset provides - Pakistan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50 percent) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35 percent). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers with lower incomes and housing wealth have significantly higher marginal propensity to consume. Areas with a larger share of ARMs were more responsive to lower interest rates and saw a relative decline in defaults and an increase in house prices, car purchases, and employment. Household balance sheets and mortgage contract rigidity are important for monetary policy pass-through.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.50 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The benchmark interest rate in Czech Republic was last recorded at 3.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Czech Republic Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Since 2010, long-term interest rates generally declined across each of the ***** countries considered until 2021, but rose thereafter. In 2024, the long-term interest rate in the United States amounted to **** percent. That year, the long-term interest rate in Germany stood at **** percent.
https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/
Over the current period, waterproofing contractors have faced an overall decline in revenue. While the residential construction market performed well for some of the current period, consistently slow commercial construction activity hindered growth. Over the past five years, industry-wide revenue has been declining at an expected CAGR of 2.2%, reaching an estimated $5.2 billion in 2024, when revenue is set to increase 0.1% and profit is expected to have fallen to 7.2%. The outbreak of COVID-19 had mixed effects on waterproofing contractors. Low interest rates meant to spur the economy led to a housing market boom, driving industry demand through private spending on home improvements and housing starts. Despite low interest rates, economic uncertainty and falling corporate profit led to falling commercial construction activity. As interest rates have been elevated from 2022 into 2024, when the Federal reserve has begun to cut rates, residential and commercial construction activity has fallen. Elevated wage and purchase costs have drove down average industry profit margins in recent years. Over the outlook period, waterproofing contractors will return to growth. Growing housing starts will bolster waterproofing contractors' growth as mortgage rates eventually drop. Private spending on home improvements returning to growth will be a boon to contractors. An uptick in commercial building construction activity over the outlook period as interest rates continue to drop will also promote growth. Tax incentives for energy-efficient residential and commercial buildings will greatly benefit waterproofing contractors. Overall, industry revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.6% to reach $5.6 in 2029.
While interest rates in the United States declined three times by late 2024, average credit card interest rates did not immediately follow suit. This reveals itself when comparing the Federal Reserve interest rate against the APR, or annual percentage rates, of credit cards issued by commercial banks. The APR reached a record high in the country in 2024, likely adding to the growing credit card debt in the United States. This was below the APR of credit cards in a country like Brazil, however. It is expected that the credit card interest rates will continue to need time to catch up with the Fed interest rate.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Korea Interest Rate Spread data was reported at 1.807 % pa in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.810 % pa for 2016. Korea Interest Rate Spread data is updated yearly, averaging 1.728 % pa from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2017, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.167 % pa in 2009 and a record low of 0.607 % pa in 2000. Korea Interest Rate Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Interest rate spread is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the interest rate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits. The terms and conditions attached to these rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.; Median;
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The benchmark interest rate in Hong Kong was last recorded at 4.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Hong Kong Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
In 2022, Portugal overturned the sinking mortgage interest rate it had gone through during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The country did not escape from the overall trend of falling mortgage interest rates observed in Europe during the COVID-19 crisis, which positioned national mortgage interest rates at **** percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. Interest rates as a weapon against inflation Even though interest rates are affected by economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market, the stability of lenders, and the overall conditions of the housing market, inflation currently leads the European Central Bank (ECB)’s decisions regarding them. As inflation had been low in Europe since the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB lowered interest rates in an attempt to promote economic growth. However, the economic difficulties brought up by the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war have fueled inflation. To counteract this rise, the ECB increased interest rates. Portugal’s abrupt rise in interest rates on new residential loans from **** percent in 2021 to **** percent in 2023 demonstrates the balanced and calculated act between the two financial indices. High interest rates and low mortgage lending Compared to other European nations, Portugal has a low gross residential mortgage lending. In the third and fourth quarters of 2022, mortgage lending decreased in the country due to rising interest rates and worsening economic conditions, but have increased dramatically until 2024. Despite being in a rising trajectory in terms of outstanding residential mortgage lending since the second quarter of 2021, 2023 registered decreasing figures caused by the same economic contingencies. 2024 shows a different trend, however.
Mortgage interest rates in Czechia have experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years, reaching a peak of nearly six percent in December 2022 before gradually declining. As of March 2025, the interest rate on new mortgages in the country amounted to 4.68 percent, showing a slight decrease from the previous month. This trend in mortgage rates has occurred alongside substantial increases in housing prices. Housing market dynamics The changes in mortgage rates have gone hand in hand with notable shifts in the Czech housing market. Despite the high-interest rates, new mortgage lending reached over 18 million Czech koruna in December 2024, marking a significant increase from the same month in the previous year. This growth in lending has continued despite the steady rise in housing prices, with the house price index reaching 219.9 in the third quarter of 2024. This marks a significant increase from the 2015 baseline, reflecting the ongoing upward trend. The average purchase price per square meter for family houses increasing across the country. In 2023, Prague recorded the highest average price at 111,087 Czech koruna per square meter. Construction sector trends The construction sector in Czechia has shown its response to these market conditions. The index of multi-dwelling building construction fluctuated recently, with 2024 showing a slight decrease to 83.8 index points compared to the previous year. However, regarding non-residential buildings, the construction has been continuously growing since 2018 with hotels and industrial buildings accounting for the majority of new non-residential constructions.
Real interest rate of Croatia declined by 0.11% from 8.45 % in 2013 to 8.44 % in 2014. Since the 0.94% growth in 2012, real interest rate surged by 6.10% in 2014. Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the GDP deflator.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Pakistan PK: Interest Rate Spread data was reported at 3.732 % pa in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.921 % pa for 2016. Pakistan PK: Interest Rate Spread data is updated yearly, averaging 5.740 % pa from Dec 2004 (Median) to 2017, with 14 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.813 % pa in 2006 and a record low of 3.732 % pa in 2017. Pakistan PK: Interest Rate Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Pakistan – Table PK.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Interest rate spread is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the interest rate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits. The terms and conditions attached to these rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.; Median;
Interest rate spread of Vanuatu went up by 2.10% from 8.36 % in 2022 to 8.54 % in 2023. Since the 3.26% downward trend in 2021, interest rate spread declined by 3.16% in 2023. Interest rate spread is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to prime customers minus the interest rate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits.
Mortgage interest rates worldwide varied greatly in 2024, from less than **** percent in many European countries, to as high as ** percent in Turkey. The average mortgage rate in a country depends on the central bank's base lending rate and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and forecast economic growth. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have led to rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. Which are the leading mortgage markets? An easy way to estimate the importance of the mortgage sector in each country is by comparing household debt depth, or the ratio of the debt held by households compared to the county's GDP. In 2023, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada had some of the highest household debt to GDP ratios worldwide. While this indicator shows the size of the sector relative to the country’s economy, the value of mortgages outstanding allows to compare the market size in different countries. In Europe, for instance, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France were the largest mortgage markets by outstanding mortgage lending. Mortgage lending trends in the U.S. In the United States, new mortgage lending soared in 2021. This was largely due to the growth of new refinance loans that allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgage terms and replace their existing loan with a more favorable one. Following the rise in interest rates, the mortgage market cooled, and refinance loans declined.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The benchmark interest rate in South Africa was last recorded at 7.25 percent. This dataset provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.