The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

With the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024. Moreover, the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.15 percent by October 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of October 2025, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.09 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

We study how model uncertainty affects the understanding of the interest rate persistence using a generalized Taylor-rule function covering numerous submodels via model average approach. The data-driven weights can be regarded as a measure of power-sharing across monetary policy committee members. We show that the model uncertainty is important in Canada, France, and Sweden, and the implied weights indicate that the U.K. and the U.S. have a lower model uncertainty caused either by an over-influential chairman or the consistent agreement of committee members. The importance of model uncertainty can be emphasized by sequential estimation during the 2008 financial crisis.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by October 29, 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S.—showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by August 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2024, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The Monetary Intermediation industry has experienced a significant change in recent years. It previously contended with the ultra-low interest rate environment following the financial crisis of 2008 and is more recently benefitting from a higher base rate environment following aggressive hikes from central banks across Europe. Industry revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.7% over the five years through 2025 to €1.2 trillion, including estimated growth of 1.5% in 2024, while the average industry profit margin is anticipated to be 35.5%. The rising base rate environment over the two years through 2023 allowed lenders to raise the interest charged on their loans, ratcheting up interest income and supporting revenue growth. This was particularly beneficial to retail investors who earn a large chunk of their revenue from lending. Over 2024, banks continued to report healthy interest income despite rate cuts, being slow to reflect these rates in interest to borrowers. However, banks must also contend with rising deposit costs, as customers put pressure to pass on greater savings rates in the higher base rate environment. Many savers were also more proactive in searching for better rates, ramping up competition amongst banks and squeezing margins, hurting net interest income. In 2025, net interest income is set to continue declining from recent year highs as rates continue to come down in major economies like the UK. To protect profit, intermediaries will continue to reduce the rates offered to depositors. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% over the five years through 2030 to €1.4 trillion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 36.3%. Challenger banks are set to chip away at demand for traditional lenders as they emphasise the customer experience. However, with such growth will come greater regulatory scrutiny, prompting challengers to invest in compliance from the outset, incurring costs in the short term and weighing on profitability. Intermediaries will also be able to tab into a growing sustainable finance market, supported by healthy investment in the area. Many banks are even adopting net-zero 2050 targets, with interim portfolio decarbonisation goals for 2030, to appeal to environmentally conscious customers.

Abstract This paper aims to study the central importance assumed by the derivatives market in the dynamics of contemporary capitalism, focusing in particular on the credit derivatives market and its contribution to the formation and the outbreak of the financial crisis that impacted the U.S. and the world economy in 2007/2008. This dimension is marked by the derivative form, that changes the property relations, introduces new agents and motivations, increases financial integration between the agents and transforms the pricing logic of the major financial markets. Therefore, the paper describes the transformation that the American mortgage market went through,, arguing that such changes gain renewed vigor and are only completed with the rise and growth of credit default swaps (CDS) and synthetic CDOs, that were fundamental to the maintenance of low interest rates on mortgages, thus contributing directly to the bubble in the property market that resulted in the economic crisis.

The Challenger Banks In Middle East & Africa Market was valued at USD 88.6 Billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 200.53 Billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 10.75% from 2026-2032.

Challenger Banks In Middle East & Africa Market: Definition/ Overview

Challenger banks are modern financial institutions that mostly operate online and seek to challenge traditional banking by providing innovative, customer-centric services. They emerged as a response to the 2008 financial crisis, focused on using technology to deliver a smooth banking experience with lower expenses, better interest rates, and greater accessibility than traditional banks. Challenger banks offer services such as digital savings and checking accounts, loans, and payment solutions, often through mobile apps for convenience.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.25 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In the decade after the 2008 financial crisis, pension providers across faced challenging conditions thanks to interest rates falling to historical lows, affecting the returns on fixed-income investments, like bonds. However, despite interest rates picking up in recent years amid the inflationary environment, headwinds remain. Revenue is expected to drop at a compound annual rate of 4.2% over the five years through 2024 to €793 billion, including a forecast fall of 1.8% in 2024. Profit has also edged downwards due to rising interest rates hitting equity and bond markets, though the average industry profit margin still stands strong, at an estimated 43.5% in 2024. Pension providers invest the contributions of policyholders into investment markets like bonds and equity, with the aim of making sure their assets can meet their liabilities – the benefits paid to retirees. Pension funds invest heavily in bond markets due to their relatively low risk and low volatility. However, this type of fixed-income investment has struggled since 2022 in the rising base rate environment, which saw yields skyrocket and bond prices plummet, hitting investment income. Equity markets, an asset class that traditionally performed inversely to bonds when interest rates were low, also performed poorly, stunted by muted economic growth and rock bottom investor sentiment. However, at the tail end of 2023, optimism picked up, with investors pricing in rate cuts, a scenario that should support economic growth and, in turn, equity markets. Bond markets also experienced considerable capital inflows as investors looked to lock in higher yields before they fell in line with a declining interest rates. Revenue is anticipated to climb at a compound annual rate of 3% over the five years through 2029 to €919.2 billion, while the average industry profit margin is estimated to swell to 45.1%. Investment returns are set to improve in the short term as markets benefit from interest rate cuts and improving economic conditions. However, an ageing population will remain a concern for pension providers as more people retire and claim their retirement benefits, ratcheting up liabilities.

Collateralized Mortgage Obligations Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMO) market size reached USD 96.8 billion in 2024, reflecting robust demand amid evolving financial markets. The market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% during the forecast period, projecting a value of USD 163.2 billion by 2033. This growth is underpinned by increasing investor appetite for structured mortgage-backed securities, the continued expansion of global real estate financing, and evolving regulatory frameworks that enhance transparency and risk management in the securitization process. As per our latest research, these drivers are collectively boosting the appeal and utilization of CMOs across diversified portfolios worldwide.

The primary growth factor for the Collateralized Mortgage Obligations market is the persistent demand for structured financial products that offer tailored risk-return profiles. Institutional investors, such as pension funds, insurance companies, and mutual funds, are increasingly seeking investment vehicles that provide stability, predictable cash flows, and portfolio diversification. CMOs, with their segmented tranches and customizable structures, cater to these needs by enabling investors to select tranches based on their risk tolerance and investment horizon. Furthermore, the low interest rate environment witnessed in recent years has intensified the search for yield, positioning CMOs as attractive alternatives to traditional fixed-income securities. This trend is further augmented by technological advancements in risk modeling and analytics, which empower investors to make informed decisions and optimize their CMO allocations.

Another significant driver is the ongoing innovation in mortgage securitization techniques and the growing sophistication of the global financial infrastructure. The development of new CMO structures, such as Planned Amortization Class (PAC) and Targeted Amortization Class (TAC) tranches, has enhanced the flexibility and resilience of these instruments against interest rate volatility and prepayment risks. Moreover, regulatory reforms introduced in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis have strengthened investor confidence by mandating stricter disclosure requirements, improved credit risk assessment, and enhanced oversight of mortgage-backed securities. These measures have contributed to a more transparent and robust CMO market, attracting both seasoned and new market participants.

The expansion of the real estate sector, particularly in emerging markets, is also fueling the growth of the CMO market. Rapid urbanization, rising homeownership rates, and increased mortgage origination are driving the supply of underlying mortgage assets for securitization. As financial institutions and government agencies seek to manage balance sheet risks and free up capital, the issuance of CMOs becomes a strategic tool for liquidity management and risk transfer. Additionally, the globalization of capital markets has facilitated cross-border investment in CMOs, enabling issuers to tap into a broader investor base and diversify funding sources. This globalization is further supported by advancements in digital platforms and electronic trading, which have streamlined the issuance, distribution, and trading of CMOs across geographies.

Regionally, North America continues to dominate the Collateralized Mortgage Obligations market, accounting for over 52% of the global market size in 2024. The region’s dominance is attributed to its mature mortgage market, well-established securitization infrastructure, and strong regulatory oversight. However, Asia Pacific is emerging as a key growth engine, with a projected CAGR of 7.2% through 2033, driven by rising mortgage origination, expanding institutional investor base, and ongoing financial sector reforms. Europe, while maintaining a significant share, is experiencing moderate growth due to regulatory harmonization efforts and increasing demand for diversified fixed-income products. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also witnessing gradual adoption of CMOs, supported by financial market development and regulatory enhancements.

Investment trusts have navigated a turbulent environment over recent years, characterised by regulatory changes and uncertain economic conditions. While demand for investment trusts has stayed fairly strong, alternative investment vehicles like open-ended investment companies have put pressure with their competitive prices, encouraging investment trusts to band together through consolidation to drive down fees charged thanks to economies of scale. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.9% over the five years through 2025-26 to £1.7 billion, including estimated growth of 6.5% in 2025-26, while the average industry profit margin is anticipated to be 27.4%. After the financial crisis in 2008, ultra-low interest rates supported equity growth as investors sought attractive returns from companies supported by cheap lending rates. This environment came to an end in 2022, as interest rates picked up rapidly amid spiralling inflation. As a result, bond values plummeted, and stock markets recorded lacklustre growth, hurting investment income. Although the rising base rate environment persisted into 2023-24, investors priced in rate cuts near the end of 2023, triggering a rally in stock markets. Capital also flowed into bonds as investors sought to lock in higher yields before they would potentially decline in 2024-25. In 2025-26, trusts will likely limit their exposure to US markets despite healthy growth seen from big tech firms in 2024-25, cautious of US fiscal policy, rising debt and the risk that trade tariffs will trigger a recession. Bond markets will also remain volatile, with markets unsure about the speed of rate cuts amid trade tensions. However, a declining base rate environment will drive prices up and support returns for investment trusts. Investment trust revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.6% over the five years through 2029-30 to £2.1 billion. Investors will continue to reduce their exposure to the dollar, with the European Stoxx index positioned for healthy growth in the short term, being seen as an effective safe haven in uncertain times. However, regulatory changes proposed by the Financial Conduct Authority have been contentious, putting investment trusts at a disadvantage to alternative investment vehicles like OEICs. Investment trusts will seek acquisitive growth, using mergers and acquisitions to minimise fixed costs through scale and ramp up competitiveness.

Bail-In Bonds Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global bail-in bonds market size reached USD 215.4 billion in 2024, demonstrating a robust expansion trajectory in the wake of evolving regulatory frameworks and heightened focus on financial stability. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% during the forecast period, reaching a forecasted market size of USD 406.6 billion by 2033. This growth is primarily underpinned by regulatory mandates for loss-absorbing capacity in banking institutions and increasing adoption by both institutional and retail investors seeking diversified fixed-income instruments.

One of the primary growth drivers for the bail-in bonds market is the implementation of stringent regulatory reforms globally, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis. Regulatory authorities such as the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) have established frameworks that require banks to issue bail-in bonds to enhance their loss-absorbing capacity. These instruments are designed to protect taxpayers from bearing the cost of bank failures by ensuring that creditors and investors absorb losses first. The growing compliance requirements have compelled banks, especially systemically important financial institutions, to increase their issuance of bail-in bonds, thereby fueling market growth. Additionally, the ongoing refinement of resolution regimes in major economies has further cemented the role of bail-in bonds as a critical risk management tool, driving sustained demand across the financial sector.

Another significant factor contributing to the growth of the bail-in bonds market is the rising participation of institutional investors, such as pension funds, insurance companies, and asset managers. These investors are attracted to bail-in bonds due to their relatively higher yields compared to traditional sovereign or corporate bonds, as well as their role in enhancing portfolio diversification. The evolving risk-return profile of bail-in bonds, coupled with increasing transparency and standardization in issuance processes, has made them an attractive proposition for large-scale investors. Moreover, as global interest rates remain volatile, investors are seeking alternative fixed-income products that offer a balance between risk and return, further bolstering demand for bail-in bonds.

Technological advancements and digitalization in financial markets have also played a pivotal role in the expansion of the bail-in bonds market. The adoption of advanced analytics, blockchain, and digital trading platforms has streamlined the issuance and trading of bail-in bonds, improving market liquidity and efficiency. These innovations have facilitated better risk assessment and enhanced the accessibility of bail-in bonds to a broader spectrum of investors, including retail participants. As market infrastructure continues to evolve, it is expected that the operational barriers to entry will diminish, enabling greater participation and fostering further growth in the bail-in bonds market.

From a regional perspective, Europe continues to dominate the global bail-in bonds market, accounting for over 46% of the total market share in 2024. This dominance is largely attributed to the proactive regulatory environment and the presence of numerous globally significant banks subject to stringent bail-in requirements. North America follows, driven by regulatory alignment and increasing adoption among major financial institutions. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific is emerging as a high-growth region, supported by the rapid development of financial markets and gradual implementation of global regulatory standards. While Latin America and the Middle East & Africa currently represent smaller shares, ongoing financial sector reforms and efforts to strengthen banking resilience are expected to stimulate future growth in these regions.

Type Analysis

The bail-in bonds market is segmented by type into senior bail-in bonds, subordinated bail-in bonds, contingent convertible bonds (CoCos), and others. Senior bail-in bonds have gained significant traction among investors and issuers alike due to their relatively lower risk profile and priority in the capital structure during resolution processes. These instruments are typically issued by large commercial and investment banks to meet regulatory requirements for loss-absorbing capacity, and they appeal particularly to conservative ins

The Direct Real Estate Activities industry have come up against numerous headwinds in recent years, ranging from the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 to the high base rate environment in the years since, which has inflated borrowing costs for potential buyers. This is a sharp contrast to the ultra-low interest environment seen over the decade following the 2008 financial crisis. Still, revenue is forecast to edge upwards at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025 to €622.9 billion, including an anticipated rise of 0.8% in 2025. Despite weak revenue growth, profitability remains strong, with the average industry profit margin standing at an estimated 18.9% in 2025. Central banks across Europe adopted aggressive monetary policy in the two years through 2023 in an effort to curb spiralling inflation. This ratcheted up borrowing costs and hit the real estate sector. In the residential property market, mortgage rates picked up and hit housing transaction levels. However, the level of mortgage rate hikes has varied across Europe, with the UK experiencing the largest rise, meaning the dent to UK real estate demand was more pronounced. Commercial real estate has also struggled due to inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and rising rates. Alongside this, the market’s stock of office space isn’t able to satisfy business demand, with companies placing a greater emphasis on high-quality space and environmental impact. Properties in many areas haven't been suitable due to their lack of green credentials. Nevertheless, things are looking up, as interest rates have been falling across Europe over the two years through 2025, reducing borrowing costs and boosting the number of property transactions, which is aiding revenue growth for estate agents. Revenue is slated to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.5% over the five years through 2030 to €777.6 billion. Economic conditions are set to improve in the short term, which will boost consumer and business confidence, ramping up the number of property transactions in both the residential and commercial real estate markets. However, estate agents may look to adjust their offerings to align with the data centre boom to soak up the demand from this market, while also adhering to sustainability commitments.

In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) began reducing its fixed interest rate for the first time since 2016, implementing a series of cuts. The rate decreased from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent by year-end: a 0.25 percentage point cut in June, followed by additional reductions in September, October, and December. The central bank implemented other cuts in the first half of 2025, setting the rate at 2.15 percent in June 2025. This marked a significant shift from the previous rate hike cycle, which began in July 2022 when the ECB raised rates to 0.5 percent and subsequently increased them almost monthly, reaching 4.5 percent by December 2023 - the highest level since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. How does this ensure liquidity? Banks typically hold only a fraction of their capital in cash, measured by metrics like the Tier 1 capital ratio. Since this ratio is low, banks prefer to allocate most of their capital to revenue-generating loans. When their cash reserves fall too low, banks borrow from the ECB to cover short-term liquidity needs. On the other hand, commercial banks can also deposit excess funds with the ECB at a lower interest rate. Reasons for fluctuations
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. The Euro area inflation rate is, in theory, the key indicator guiding the ECB's actions. When the fixed interest rate is lower, commercial banks are more likely to borrow from the ECB, increasing the money supply and, in turn, driving inflation higher. When inflation rises, the ECB increases the fixed interest rate, which slows borrowing and helps to reduce inflation.

Non-Agency MBS Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global Non-Agency MBS market size reached USD 1.23 trillion in 2024, demonstrating robust expansion driven by increasing investor appetite for higher-yielding structured finance products. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% during the forecast period, reaching an estimated USD 2.32 trillion by 2033. This growth is primarily fueled by the resurgence of private-label securitizations, greater risk tolerance among institutional investors, and evolving regulatory frameworks that support the diversification of mortgage-backed securities outside government-sponsored entities.

One of the key growth factors propelling the Non-Agency MBS market is the persistent search for yield in a low-interest-rate environment. Institutional investors, including pension funds, insurance companies, and asset managers, are increasingly allocating capital to non-agency mortgage-backed securities due to their higher risk-adjusted returns compared to agency-backed alternatives. The flexibility in structuring these securities allows for tailored risk profiles, making them attractive to sophisticated investors seeking portfolio diversification. Furthermore, the gradual normalization of credit standards and improved underwriting practices post-2008 financial crisis have enhanced the overall credit quality of newly issued non-agency MBS, instilling greater investor confidence and driving market expansion.

Another significant driver is the evolution of mortgage origination and servicing technologies, which have streamlined the securitization process and improved transparency in the underlying asset pools. The adoption of advanced analytics, machine learning, and blockchain in the mortgage industry has enabled more accurate risk assessment and pricing, reducing information asymmetry and operational inefficiencies. These technological advancements have also facilitated the entry of non-traditional issuers and mortgage lenders into the non-agency MBS market, expanding the range of available products and contributing to market depth and liquidity. As a result, both primary and secondary market activity for non-agency MBS has accelerated, further supporting market growth.

Regulatory developments have also played a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of the Non-Agency MBS market. Post-crisis reforms, such as the Dodd-Frank Act and Basel III, have strengthened investor protections and enhanced disclosure requirements, leading to higher levels of transparency and accountability among market participants. At the same time, the gradual withdrawal of government support from certain segments of the mortgage market has created opportunities for private capital to fill the gap, particularly in the jumbo, non-conforming, and alternative documentation loan segments. This regulatory recalibration has encouraged greater participation from private institutions and fostered innovation in MBS structuring, thereby fueling market expansion.

Regionally, North America remains the dominant market for non-agency MBS, accounting for over 62% of global issuance in 2024, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific. The United States, in particular, benefits from a mature and highly liquid secondary mortgage market, supported by well-established legal and regulatory frameworks. In Europe, the market is witnessing steady growth as banks and private issuers explore alternative funding sources and investors seek exposure to diversified real estate markets. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific is emerging as a key growth frontier, driven by rapid urbanization, rising homeownership rates, and increasing sophistication among institutional investors. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa, while still nascent, present long-term opportunities as financial markets deepen and regulatory environments evolve.

Product Type Analysis

The Non-Agency MBS market is segmented by product type into Residential MBS (RMBS), Commercial MBS (CMBS), and Others

The Direct Real Estate Activities industry have come up against numerous headwinds in recent years, ranging from the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 to the high base rate environment in the years since, which has inflated borrowing costs for potential buyers. This is a sharp contrast to the ultra-low interest environment seen over the decade following the 2008 financial crisis. Still, revenue is forecast to edge upwards at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025 to €622.9 billion, including an anticipated rise of 0.8% in 2025. Despite weak revenue growth, profitability remains strong, with the average industry profit margin standing at an estimated 18.9% in 2025. Central banks across Europe adopted aggressive monetary policy in the two years through 2023 in an effort to curb spiralling inflation. This ratcheted up borrowing costs and hit the real estate sector. In the residential property market, mortgage rates picked up and hit housing transaction levels. However, the level of mortgage rate hikes has varied across Europe, with the UK experiencing the largest rise, meaning the dent to UK real estate demand was more pronounced. Commercial real estate has also struggled due to inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and rising rates. Alongside this, the market’s stock of office space isn’t able to satisfy business demand, with companies placing a greater emphasis on high-quality space and environmental impact. Properties in many areas haven't been suitable due to their lack of green credentials. Nevertheless, things are looking up, as interest rates have been falling across Europe over the two years through 2025, reducing borrowing costs and boosting the number of property transactions, which is aiding revenue growth for estate agents. Revenue is slated to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.5% over the five years through 2030 to €777.6 billion. Economic conditions are set to improve in the short term, which will boost consumer and business confidence, ramping up the number of property transactions in both the residential and commercial real estate markets. However, estate agents may look to adjust their offerings to align with the data centre boom to soak up the demand from this market, while also adhering to sustainability commitments.

The Direct Real Estate Activities industry have come up against numerous headwinds in recent years, ranging from the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 to the high base rate environment in the years since, which has inflated borrowing costs for potential buyers. This is a sharp contrast to the ultra-low interest environment seen over the decade following the 2008 financial crisis. Still, revenue is forecast to edge upwards at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025 to €622.9 billion, including an anticipated rise of 0.8% in 2025. Despite weak revenue growth, profitability remains strong, with the average industry profit margin standing at an estimated 18.9% in 2025. Central banks across Europe adopted aggressive monetary policy in the two years through 2023 in an effort to curb spiralling inflation. This ratcheted up borrowing costs and hit the real estate sector. In the residential property market, mortgage rates picked up and hit housing transaction levels. However, the level of mortgage rate hikes has varied across Europe, with the UK experiencing the largest rise, meaning the dent to UK real estate demand was more pronounced. Commercial real estate has also struggled due to inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and rising rates. Alongside this, the market’s stock of office space isn’t able to satisfy business demand, with companies placing a greater emphasis on high-quality space and environmental impact. Properties in many areas haven't been suitable due to their lack of green credentials. Nevertheless, things are looking up, as interest rates have been falling across Europe over the two years through 2025, reducing borrowing costs and boosting the number of property transactions, which is aiding revenue growth for estate agents. Revenue is slated to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.5% over the five years through 2030 to €777.6 billion. Economic conditions are set to improve in the short term, which will boost consumer and business confidence, ramping up the number of property transactions in both the residential and commercial real estate markets. However, estate agents may look to adjust their offerings to align with the data centre boom to soak up the demand from this market, while also adhering to sustainability commitments.