From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

European Union central banks navigated a complex economic landscape between 2022 and 2025, with interest rates initially rising across member states. However, a pivotal shift occurred in late 2023 as most countries began lowering their rates, reflecting the delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. In the Euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) led this trend by cutting interest rates from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent in 2024, implementing four strategic rate reductions throughout the year. This approach was nearly universally adopted, with Poland being the sole EU country not reducing its rates during this period. The ECB continued the series of reductions in early 2025, setting the rate at 2.4 percent in April 2025. Global context and policy shifts The interest rate changes in the EU mirror similar movements in other major economies. The United States, United Kingdom, and European Union central banks followed remarkably similar patterns from 2003 to 2024, responding to shared global economic conditions. After maintaining near-zero rates following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, these institutions sharply raised rates in 2022 to combat surging inflation. By mid-2024, the European Central Bank and Bank of England initiated rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve following suit. Varied approaches within the EU Despite the overall trend, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies. Hungary, for instance, set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by September 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented the most aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These divergent approaches highlight the unique economic challenges faced by each country and the flexibility required in monetary policy to address specific national circumstances.

Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Malta were the Eurozone countries with the lowest average interest rates on non-financial corporations as of July 2024. Meanwhile, the average business loan interest rate for the euro area was 5.06 percent. On the other side of the spectrum, Estonia and Latvia were two of the countries with the highest business loan interest rates. The interest rates on consumer loans in Eurozone countries were even more varied.

As of January 2025, Latvia was the euro area country with the highest interest rate for loans. The long-term maturities in that Baltic country were on average over 8.19 percent. Meanwhile, the composite cost for short-term loans in Malta amounted to 3.65 percent, which was the lowest rate in the Eurozone.

As of July 2024, consumer loans with a maturity date of over five years had the highest interest rate at 8.27 percent. In contrast, the consumer loans with the lowest interest rate were those with collateral or guarantees and a maturity date from up to one year.

The annual average Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) one month interest rate decreased overall between 2000 and 2021 in the Eurozone, reaching a value of negative 0.56 percent as of 2021. The largest Euribor one month interest rate was found in 2001, when an interest rate of 4.33 percent was recorded.

Between January 2018 and May 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at *** percent in August 2020 and peaked at *** percent in October 2022. By September 2024, inflation had moderated to *** percent, but the following months saw inflation increase again. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at -* percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to *** percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of **** percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to **** percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at *** percent, which was further reduced to **** percent in May 2025. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at **** percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

The inflation rate in Germany was 1.35 percent in 2019. The current rate meets the European Central Bank’s target rate, which is “below, but close to, 2 percent.” Many central bankers favor inflation between 2 and 3 percent, but Germans in particular would rather risk deflation than too much inflation.

Causes of inflation

Central bankers like low, stable inflation because this is a sign of a growing economy. When the economy grows, workers become more productive and spend more, and prices slowly rise. Monetary policy can cause inflation, but Germany has given this responsibility to the European Central Bank (ECB). Importantly, inflation expectations affect inflation, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The German context

During the eurozone crisis, German politicians were advocating for the ECB to raise interest rates quickly. This would have reduced inflation, possibly causing deflation, but would have presented another hurdle for the struggling Greek economy. This is because of the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, when Germans carried their pay home in wheelbarrows because the banknotes had lost so much value. Ever since, Germans often warn that inflation harms pensioners and that personal provisions are necessary in any case. Fortunately for them, this statistic forecasts stable, modest inflation that does not alarm many economists.

According to the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters, the interest rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations is expected to decrease from *** percent in January 2025 to *** percent in 2026.

The long-term interest rate on government debt is a key indicator of the economic health of a country. The rate reflects financial market actors' perceptions of the creditworthiness of the government and the health of the domestic economy, with a strong and robust economic outlook allowing governments to borrow for essential investments in their economies, thereby boosting long-term growth.

The Euro and converging interest rates in the early 2000s

In the case of many Eurozone countries, the early 2000s were a time where this virtuous cycle of economic growth reduced the interest rates they paid on government debt to less than 5 percent, a dramatic change from the pre-Euro era of the 1990s. With the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent deep recession, however, the economies of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland were seen to be much weaker than previously assumed by lenders. Interest rates on their debt gradually began to rise during the crisis, before rapidly increasing beginning in 2010, as first Greece and then Ireland and Portugal lost the faith of financial markets.

The Eurozone crisis

This market adjustment was initially triggered due to revelations by the Greek government that the country's budget deficit was much larger than had been previously expected, with investors seeing the country as an unreliable debtor. The crisis, which became known as the Eurozone crisis, spread to Ireland and then Portugal, as lenders cut-off lending to highly indebted Eurozone members with weak fundamentals. During this period there was also intense speculation that due to unsustainable debt loads, some countries would have to leave the Euro currency area, further increasing the interest on their debt. Interest rates on their debt began to come back down after ECB Chief Mario Draghi signaled to markets that the central bank would intervene to keep the states within the currency area in his famous "whatever it takes" speech in Summer 2012.

The return of higher interest rates in the post-COVID era

Since this period of extremely high interest rates on government debt for these member states, the interest they are charged for borrowing has shrunk considerably, as the financial markets were flooded with "cheap money" due to the policy measures of central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, such as near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing. As interest rates have risen to combat inflation since 2022, so have the interest rates on government debt in the Eurozone also risen, however, these rises are modest compared to during the Eurozone crisis.

All data are expressed as a percentage, except for GDP per capita, net wages, total population, life expectancy, expected years of education, average years of schooling, life and non-life premium, total premium, bank deposits, financial assets and deposits of insurance companies, which are expressed in absolute terms.

Source of data:

Data on Life and Non-life premium, Total (gross) premium, Premium reserve data, Financial assets and Deposits of insurance companies are collected from the official reports of insurance supervision agencies: Insurance Supervision Agency in Montenegro (http://www.ano.me/en/), Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency (https://www.hanfa.hr/en/), National Bank of Serbia (https://www.nbs.rs/internet/english/, Insurance Supervision Agency of North Macedonia (http://aso.mk/en/?lang=en) and Financial Supervisory Authority in Albania (https://amf.gov.al/).

The economic indicators for the observed Western Balkan countries (GDP per capita, unemployment rate, inflation rate, net earnings and average effective deposit interest rate) are taken from the website Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat) and Statista (https://www.statista.com/)

All demographic indicators, except for the expected and average years of schooling and education index, were collected from the Eurostat and UNDP database (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database; http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/ ).

Data on expected and average school years were taken from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (http://uis.unesco.org) , while the education index was obtained as a result of a calculation based on a formula published on the UNDP website (http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/education-index).

Data on bond yield were collected from the website of European Commission (https://ec.europa.eu/), i.e. from EC reports - EU Candidate Countries’ & Potential Candidates’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ), except two data for Serbia (2006 and 2007) which were estimated by Makima extrapolation.

Bank deposits data are taken from the official reports of banks' regulatory institutions: Central bank of Montenegro (https://www.cbcg.me/en), National bank of Serbia (https://www.nbs.rs/en/indeks/), Croatian National bank (https://www.hnb.hr/en/home), National bank of the Republic of North Macedonia (https://www.nbrm.mk/pocetna-en.nspx); Bank of Albania (https://www.bankofalbania.org/home/)

Description of columns:

f1-GDPper capita; f2- Unemployment (%); f3-Inflation rate (%); f4- Net Wages €; f5- Deposit rate (%); f6- Population; f7- Female (%); f8- Population <15 (%); f9- Population 15-64 (%); f10- Dep old (%); f11- Dep young (%); f12- Urban population (%); f13-Life exp. (years); f14- Preschool enroll rate (%); f15- Elem school enroll rate (%); f16-High school enroll rate (%); f17- University enroll rate (%); f18- Expected years of schooling; f19- Avg. years of schooling; f20- Education Index (%); f21- Fertility rate (number of children to a woman); f22- Birth rate (per 1000 inhabitants); f23- Health costs (% GDP); f24-premium reserve per GDP,

i1- life premium €; i2- non-life premium €; i3- total premium €; i4- bond yield (%); i5a- bank deposits ( national currency); i5b- bank deposits €; i6a-financial assets in insurance (national currency); i6b- financial assets in insurance €; i7a- deposits of insurers (national currency); i7b –deposit of insurers €

The average mortgage interest rate decreased in nearly every country in Europe between 2012 and 2021, followed by an increase in response to inflation. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Poland, Hungary, and Romania topped the ranking as the countries with the highest mortgage interest rates in Europe. Conversely, Belgium, Spain, and Italy displayed the lowest interest rates. The UK, which is the country with the largest value of mortgages outstanding, had an interest rate of **** percent.

The statistic shows the inflation rate in the European Union and the Euro area from 2019 to 2022, with projections up until 2029. The term inflation, also known as currency devaluation (drop in the value of money), is characterized by a steady rise in prices for finished products (consumer goods, capital goods). The consumer price index tracks price trends of private consumption expenditure, and shows an increase in the index's current level of inflation. In 2022, the inflation rate in the EU was about 9.32 percent compared to the previous year. The economic situation in the European Union and the euro area The ongoing Eurozone crisis, which initially emerged in 2009, has dramatically affected most countries in the European Union. The crisis primarily prevented many countries from refinancing their debt without help from a third party and slowed economic growth throughout the entire EU. As a result, general gross debt escalated annually in the euro area and more prominently in the EU. The collective sum of debt is most likely going to continue, given the current global economic situation as well as Europe’s recovering, however struggling economy. Struggles are primarily evident in the EU’s budget balance, which saw itself in the negative every year over the same timeframe as the eurozone crisis, although the balances improved on a yearly basis. Despite economical struggles, the EU still grew in population almost every year over the past decade, primarily due to a high standard of living and job opportunities, compared to many of its surrounding neighbors.

The annual average Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) three month interest rate decreased overall between 2000 and 2021 in the Eurozone, reaching a value of negative **** percent as of 2021. The highest Euribor three month interest rate was found in 2008, when an interest rate of **** percent was recorded.

The average interest rate of loans from monetary financial institutions to non-financial corporations in the euro area overall has decreased significantly in 2024 and 2025. In January of 2024 it amounted to 5.16, and by March 2025 it had fallen to 3.93 percent. These figures are a composite cost-of-borrowing indicator that shows the average interest rate of business loans (non-financial), taking into account those with different loan terms or for different amounts.

Following the easing of restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic in 2022, inflation rates in many economic sectors in Europe spiked, with the food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport sectors being particularly affected. Additionally, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent energy crisis caused a spike in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels sector, with the inflation rate in these products reaching 23.2 percent in October 2022. All economic sectors have experienced a significant disinflation during 2023 onwards, as higher interest rates set by the European Central Bank dampen economic activity and slowed prices increase.

The annual average Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) *** month interest rate decreased overall between 2000 and 2021 in the Eurozone, reaching a value of negative **** percent as of 2021. The highest Euribor *** month interest rate was found in 2008, when an interest rate of **** percent was recorded.

The annual average Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) twelve month interest rate in the Eurozone decreased overall between 2000 and 2021, reaching a value of negative 0.49 percent as of 2021. The highest Euribor twelve month interest rate was found in 2008, when an interest rate of 4.81 percent was recorded.

Since its introduction in October 2019, the Euro Short-Term Rate (€STR) has remained constant at between -0.51 and -0.59 percent until the second half 2022. Since then, it increased, peaking at 3.9 between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. As of January 2025, the rate stood at 2.92 percent. The €STR is an interest rate benchmark designed to replace the Euro OverNight Index Average (EOIA), adopting a different calculation methodology that returns significantly lower rates. It is intended that the EOIA will be discontinued from January 3, 2022. How is the Euro Short-Term Rate calculated? The €STR uses transaction data included in daily reporting on monetary exchanges from the 52 largest eurozone banks to calculate the average interests rate attached to loans throughout a business day. Only unsecured loans are included, as the rate on secured loans would be affected by the type of underlying collateral. Several key respects distinguish the €STR from alternative benchmarks like the EOIA, and the London Intrabank Offered Rate (LIBOR). First, the €STR is based on transaction data alone, whereas the LIBOR asking major banks directly what rate they would charge other banks for short terms loans. The second main difference is that, by considering money market transactions rather than only intrabank lending (like the EOIA and LIBOR), the €STR incorporates the role of other major actors like money market funds, insurance companies, and other financial corporations. Difference between €STR and EURIBOR The Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR) is the other main reference interest rate governing eurozone lending. The EURIBOR differs from €STR though as it is based on a survey of the interest rates a panel of major banks would offer other major banks for interbank term deposits. There are therefore different reference rates published for different maturities, for example the EURIBOR one month rate, the EURIBOR six month rate, and the EURIBOR 12 month rate. In contrast, the €STR is intended to track the cost of overnight borrowing.