In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.75 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Turkey was last recorded at 46 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Inflation in Argentina was 54 percent in 2019, before falling to 42 percent in 2020. Despite Argentina's fluctuating economic instability over the twentieth century, the largest factor in its current economic status is the legacy of poor fiscal discipline left by the economic depression from 1998 to 2002. Although data is not available from 2014 to 2016, Argentina's inflation rate has been among the highest in the world for the past five years.

What causes inflation?

Inflation is a rise in price levels for all goods. Major causes of inflation include an increase in money supply, low central bank interest rates, and expectation of inflation. In a country such as Argentina, the expectation can be one of the biggest obstacles. People expect inflation to be high and demand increasing wages, and firms continue raising prices because they expect the costs of inputs to increase. Banks follow suit, charging high interest rates on fixed deposits.

Effects of inflation

Inflation negatively affects savers. 100 Argentinian pesos in 2018 was worth just under 75 pesos in 2019, after adjusting for the 34 percent inflation rate. Similarly, frequently changing prices has its own inherent cost, called “menu cost” after the price of printing new menus. Inflation will also have a positive effect on national debt when that debt is denominated in Argentinian pesos, because the pesos will be cheaper when the loan matures. However, the majority of Argentina’s debts are in foreign currency, which means that inflation will make these debts larger in peso terms.

Expected Inflation Term Structure is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The benchmark interest rate in Poland was last recorded at 5 percent. This dataset provides - Poland Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Between 2013 and 2023, the Federal Reserve's earnings remittances to the United States Department of the Treasury experienced significant fluctuations. The remittances reached their highest point in 2015. However, in 2023, these remittances took an unprecedented turn, amounting to approximately negative *** billion U.S. dollars - a dramatic decrease compared to previous years. The unusual situation of negative earnings remittances typically occurs during periods of rapidly rising interest rates. As the Fed increases interest rates to combat inflation, it pays higher interest on reserves held by commercial banks. Simultaneously, the value of its bond holdings may decrease, potentially leading to unrealized losses. When these costs surpass the Fed's income from its assets, it results in negative earnings, effectively creating a deferred asset rather than making a payment to the Treasury.

Most empirical evidence suggests that the Fisher effect, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit slope on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. For this purpose, we propose two new panel cointegration tests that can be applied under very general conditions, and that are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. These tests are applied to a panel of quarterly data covering 20 OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. The evidence suggest that the Fisher effect cannot be rejected once the panel evidence on cointegration has been taken into account.

The benchmark interest rate in Norway was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Norway Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The benchmark interest rate in New Zealand was last recorded at 3.25 percent. This dataset provides - New Zealand Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.