As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Canada (IRLTLT01CAM156N) from Jan 1955 to May 2025 about long-term, Canada, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.89% on June 24, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.14 points, though it remains 0.51 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Interactive chart showing the daily 10 year treasury yield back to 1962. The 10 year treasury is the benchmark used to decide mortgage rates across the U.S. and is the most liquid and widely traded bond in the world.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3MO) from 1981-09-01 to 2025-06-25 about bills, 3-month, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.27% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.21 points and is 0.12 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.42% on June 24, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.08 points, though it remains 0.42 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.51% on June 20, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.14 points, though it remains 0.10 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield (BAA) from Jan 1919 to May 2025 about Baa, bonds, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

View the average monthly yields of prime, investment-grade bonds with maturities over 20 years, which can indicate interest rates.

This table contains 39 series, with data for starting from 1991 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 item: Canada); Financial market statistics (39 items: Government of Canada Treasury Bills, 1-month (composite rates); Government of Canada Treasury Bills, 2-month (composite rates); Government of Canada Treasury Bills, 3-month (composite rates);Government of Canada Treasury Bills, 6-month (composite rates); ...).

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.65% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points and is 0.56 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The monthly average yield on five, ten, and twenty-year nominal zero coupon British Government securities in the United Kingdom (UK) have all seen a continued decrease from December 2019 to July 2020. January 2021 saw a slight increase, progressing to October 2022 when yields reached a new high. At the end of December 2024, the monthly average yield of 20-year British Government Securities stood at 4.65 percent.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.28% on June 23, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.05 points and is 0.06 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by May 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached * percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Interactive chart showing the daily 30 year treasury yield back to 1977. The U.S Treasury suspended issuance of the 30 year bond between 2/15/2002 and 2/9/2006.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-06-18 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Effective Yield (BAMLC0A4CBBBEY) from 1996-12-31 to 2025-06-19 about BBB, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.