9 datasets found
  1. Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025

    • statista.com
    Updated Apr 16, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 16, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Apr 16, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

  2. Treasury yield rates in the U.S. 2005-2024, by maturity

    • statista.com
    Updated Apr 16, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Treasury yield rates in the U.S. 2005-2024, by maturity [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1059669/yield-curve-usa/
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 16, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

  3. Yield curve in the UK 2024

    • ai-chatbox.pro
    • statista.com
    Updated May 16, 2025
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    Statista Research Department (2025). Yield curve in the UK 2024 [Dataset]. https://www.ai-chatbox.pro/?_=%2Ftopics%2F3842%2Fuk-government-spending%2F%23XgboD02vawLYpGJjSPEePEUG%2FVFd%2Bik%3D
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    Dataset updated
    May 16, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Authors
    Statista Research Department
    Area covered
    United Kingdom
    Description

    As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

  4. Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth

    • clevelandfed.org
    csv
    Updated Oct 5, 2020
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    Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2020). Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth [Dataset]. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-predicted-gdp-growth
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    csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Oct 5, 2020
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelandhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

  5. T

    US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    • it.tradingeconomics.com
    • +14more
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Jun 15, 2025
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2025). US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
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    json, xml, excel, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 15, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jun 1, 1912 - Jul 3, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.35% on July 3, 2025, marking a 0.07 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points and is 0.02 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

  6. Time gap between yield curve inversion and recession 1978-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Aug 29, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Time gap between yield curve inversion and recession 1978-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
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    Dataset updated
    Aug 29, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

  7. Prediction of 10 year U.S. Treasury note rates 2019-2025

    • statista.com
    • ai-chatbox.pro
    Updated Jun 26, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Prediction of 10 year U.S. Treasury note rates 2019-2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/247565/monthly-average-10-year-us-treasury-note-yield-2012-2013/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 26, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Sep 2019 - Aug 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

  8. Government bond yields curve in Australia 2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 26, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Government bond yields curve in Australia 2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1275329/australian-government-bonds-yields-curve/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jun 26, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Jun 26, 2024
    Area covered
    Australia
    Description

    As of June 26, 2024, all Australian government debt securities had positive yields. Debt with a residual maturity of four years debt recorded the lowest yield at 4.12 percent, while debt with a residual of 20 years recorded the highest yield at 4.74 percent. It is usually the case that bonds with a longer maturity have a higher yield so as to compensate investors for the higher level of uncertainty about future market conditions.

  9. T

    United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury...

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Mar 26, 2018
    + more versions
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2018). United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/10-year-treasury-constant-maturity-minus-3-month-treasury-constant-maturity-fed-data.html
    Explore at:
    excel, json, csv, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Mar 26, 2018
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity was -0.07% in July of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity reached a record high of 5.18 in August of 1982 and a record low of -1.89 in May of 2023. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

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Statista (2025). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
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Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025

Explore at:
6 scholarly articles cite this dataset (View in Google Scholar)
Dataset updated
Apr 16, 2025
Dataset authored and provided by
Statistahttp://statista.com/
Time period covered
Apr 16, 2025
Area covered
United States
Description

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

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