At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ***** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (WFII30) from 2010-02-26 to 2025-06-20 about TIPS, 30-year, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from 1962-01-02 to 2025-06-20 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.22% on July 1, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.23 points and is 0.22 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In 2023, the yield on 10-year U.S. treasury securities increased to 3.96 percent, up from 2.95 percent in the previous year. 2020 recorded the lowest value in the period under consideration, and well below the longer-term average. In 1980 the yield was 11.43 percent. What are treasury securities? The United States government consistently has a budget deficit, and it finances this spending with debt issued by the Treasury Department. These treasury securities are attractive investments because most investors believe that the United States Treasury Department will never default. For this reason, many investors of different varieties hold these securities. Country differences The markets consider treasury securities to be low-risk, as they are secured by governments. Different countries differ in level of indebtment, value of investments, stability of currency, GDP growth, inflation, etc. These factors are the reasons why yields on government bonds differ from country to country. The yield shows how much a given government has to pay to the investors for the money that it borrows.

U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.42 percent in May 2025 compared to 2.56 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.

Although the many central banks publish the yield-to-maturity of their Treasury bonds, the monthly returns earned by investors are typically not publicly available.This data set calculates monthly returns for:United States (starting 1947)Germany (starting 1972)Japan (starting 1974)Australia (starting 1969)Norway (starting 1921)Sweden (starting 1920)

As of November 2024, Luxembourg government bonds with maturities of close to ten years reached an average of 2.31 percent per annum. That was almost 0.8 percent less than the previous year. Treasury notes: a safe haven in times of trouble Ten-year government bonds, otherwise known as treasury notes, are debt obligations issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. In August 2019, investors became more interested in these investments as global developments sparked uncertainty on the stock markets. Traditionally, government bonds from the U.S. and Germany have the highest liquidity. When stock exchanges fall with around ten percent, a German treasury note with an interest rate of around 2.43 percent is then considered a relatively safe place. What are other options to do with your money in Luxembourg? In March 2023, the interest rate of short-term household deposits (with an agreed maturity of up to one year) in Luxembourg was 2.35. This was the lowest of all Benelux countries (Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). Low interest rates on consumer savings are deemed a consequence of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as it maintains artificially low interest rates to increase inflation on the European continent. Low interest rates and uncertainty on the stock exchange might therefore explain investors’ interest in gold. The international price of gold per troy ounce has increased sharply in recent years.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from 1976-06-01 to 2025-06-25 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Bond Fund Sales Market Outlook

The bond fund sales market size was valued at approximately USD 10 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 15 trillion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. This growth is primarily driven by increasing investor demand for stable and diversified income streams amidst global economic uncertainties. The market size expansion is fostered by factors such as an aging global population seeking more conservative investment options, heightened volatility in equity markets, and favorable regulatory changes supporting bond fund investments.

One of the primary growth factors for the bond fund sales market is the demographic shift towards an aging population, particularly in developed regions such as North America and Europe. As more individuals approach retirement age, there is a heightened need for investment products that offer steady income with reduced risk exposure. Bond funds, known for their relatively stable returns and lower volatility compared to equity funds, serve as an attractive option for this demographic. Additionally, the increasing life expectancy rates globally are pushing retirees to seek long-term investment solutions that can provide consistent income streams over extended periods.

Another significant growth driver is the evolving regulatory landscape that favors bond investments. Governments and financial regulatory bodies in various regions are implementing rules and guidelines that promote transparency and investor protection in the bond markets. These regulatory changes increase investor confidence and make bond funds more appealing to both retail and institutional investors. Furthermore, the introduction of green bonds and other socially responsible investment (SRI) products within the bond fund market is drawing interest from a growing segment of environmentally and socially conscious investors.

Technological advancements and the proliferation of digital investment platforms are also contributing to the growth of the bond fund sales market. Online platforms and robo-advisors are making it easier for retail investors to access and manage bond fund investments with lower fees and greater convenience. These platforms provide investors with tools and resources to make informed investment decisions, thereby increasing the participation rate of individual investors in the bond market. This digital transformation is democratizing access to bond funds and expanding the market's reach across various investor segments.

Regionally, the bond fund sales market exhibits diverse growth patterns. North America and Europe are expected to maintain their dominance due to their mature financial markets and high levels of investor awareness and engagement. However, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by rapid economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and increasing investor sophistication. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa regions are also witnessing growing interest in bond funds, albeit at a slower pace, as these markets gradually develop and integrate into the global financial system.

Fund Type Analysis

Government bond funds are a cornerstone of the bond fund market, offering investors a relatively low-risk investment option backed by government securities. These funds have been traditionally appealing to risk-averse investors, including retirees and conservative institutional investors. The demand for government bond funds is amplified during periods of economic uncertainty, as they are perceived as safe havens. The increasing issuance of government bonds to finance fiscal stimulus and infrastructure projects globally is also contributing to the growth of this segment. Moreover, central banks' policies, such as quantitative easing, have increased the liquidity and attractiveness of these bonds.

Corporate bond funds represent a significant portion of the bond fund market, providing higher yields compared to government bonds, albeit with increased risk. These funds invest in bonds issued by corporations to finance their operations and expansions. The corporate bond market is highly dynamic, with companies frequently entering and exiting the market based on their financing needs and credit ratings. The growth of this segment is supported by strong corporate earnings and favorable economic conditions that enhance companies' ability to service their debt. Additionally, the trend towards globalization and cross-border investments is expanding the market for corporate bond funds.

This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

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The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.37% on July 1, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points, though it remains 0.64 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.65% on July 1, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.05 points and is 0.59 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.

Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.

The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers.

United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity was 4.26% in June of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity reached a record high of 15.84 in September of 1981 and a record low of 0.52 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from 2003-01-02 to 2025-06-20 about TIPS, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, 5-year, rate, and USA.