Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) inclined by 3.33 percent in 2020 after adjusting for inflation. This figure fell from 13.4 percent growth four years ago, which had been a reaction to sanctions lifting after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program. United States president Donald Trump ended that country’s participation in the deal, imposing new sanctions.

Political influence on the economy

Political tensions have hampered the economy of Iran, keeping growth low in spite of the country’s considerable oil reserves. The effect of these sanctions becomes obvious when looking at Iran’s oil exports to Europe over the past decade. Some analysts have blamed the new sanctions for the increase in Iran’s inflation rate, as well as the currency depreciation that has accompanied it.

Iran’s options

Although Iran’s main export partners are largely in Asia, many of the transactions are carried out using U.S. dollars. Even though other means of payment are possible, some countries worry about political ramifications of continuing trade relations with Iran. Iran’s greatest strength at the moment may be its low national debt, meaning that it can borrow a substantial amount of money if it can find a willing lender. However, given the instability of the political situation worldwide and regionally, it is difficult to assume that such a borrower exists at the moment.

Sanction index in Iran with fuzzy logic

This statistic shows Iran's main import partners in 2023, sorted by their share in total imports. In 2023, Iran's main import partner was the China with a share of 34 percent in all imports. Iran's struggling economy Iran’s main import partners in descending order of importance include the United Arab Emirates, China, Algeria, India, South Korea and Turkey. Together the United Arab Emirates and China compose over 50 percent of all imports. No European countries or the United States are close trade partners with Iran for neither imports nor exports. Iran has been isolated from the west with sanctions due to concerns over the country's role in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction for decades. In 2011, further sanctions on Iran from the United States and Europe were agreed upon, which negatively affected Iran’s economy. This also had an effect on the value of totalimports into the country which also dropped slightly around the same period. This is likely due to the fact that Iran’s GDP per capita also reduced significantly thereafter, limiting the country’s capacity to import goods. Compared to the GDP per capita of Saudi Arabia, Iran’s is significantly lower. Aside from the Saudi Arabian oil trade, one difference could be attributed to the fact that Saudi Arabia, in contrast to Iran, has developed strong international ties and trades freely with Europe and the United States, whereas Iran remains isolated for the time being.

Iran’s inflation rate rose sharply to 34.79 percent in 2019 and was projected to rise another 14 percentage points before slowly starting to decline. Given the recent sanctions by the United States regarding the nuclear deal, this number has both political and economic implications. Political implications President Hassan Rouhani won the 2017 election based on economic promises, many stemming from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Lifting these sanctions opened the Iranian economy to many opportunities, including the chance to benefit from increased oil exports. The JCPOA was an integral part of the Rouhani campaign, so any economic hardship that is linked to the deal will likely be blamed on the president. Economic implications High inflation leads to high interest rates, which leads to less borrowing. Less borrowing means less investment, which slows economic growth. This slower growth often leads to higher inflation, which is what economists call an inflationary spiral. As such, Iran will have difficulty achieving substantial GDP growth until inflation returns to manageable rates.

This statistic shows Iran's export of goods from 2013 to 2023. In 2023, Iran exported goods approximately worth ***** billion U.S. dollars. Iran's export struggle The Iranian economy was not spared from the global economic crisis in 2009, but Iranian exports seemed to recover from the global economic recession in 2011 at first. However, export figures dropped thereafter because of sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union (EU) due to supposed Iran nuclear activities. This new round of sanctions spurred negative growth in 2012 and 2013 and growth dropped during the same period by around 200 billion U.S. dollars. While Iran has one of the largest oil reserves globally, daily oil production has decreased significantly since the first sanctions from the United States were put in place back in 1978. Because of a history of sanctions from Europe and the United States, neither region is among Iran’s most important export partners. While Iran had been hoping to emerge from sanctions this year, hoping to overcome international isolation and recovering lost revenue, recent tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran may cripple their progress. Saudi Arabia would prefer the sanctions against Iran remain, since relations between the two countries have gotten worse. Additionally, where Saudi Arabia is a stronger ally to the west concerning Syria, Iran leans the other way. This situation could leave Iran once again struggling to overcome its isolation from the west.