The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

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Credit card issuance revenue is slated to dip at a compound annual rate of 7.3% over the five years through 2025-26 to £20.5 billion, including estimated growth of 9.5% in 2025-26. The cost-of-living crisis has been both a blessing and a curse – on the one hand, households have turned to credit cards to pay for necessities as disposable incomes have taken a hit; on the other, it’s caused a higher rate of default and a lower level of total spending. Rampant inflation has made revenue very volatile. Drops in disposable income have left households scrambling to pay for necessities, with the ONS finding that 21% of adults had to use personal loans or credit cards to afford their living costs across 2023-24. Credit card issuers earn a large portion of their revenue from interest income. When the Bank of England ramped up interest rates to curb spiralling inflation over the two years through 2023-24, issuers saw their revenue skyrocket. Although interest rate cuts occurred over 2024-25, the average rate issuers charged borrowers continued to climb, reflecting the rising number of defaults, and issuers seeking to maintain profitability after being forced to raise provisions to cover losses. Interest rates will continue to drop in 2025-26, but this will make borrowing more affordable and reduce the likelihood of defaults, supporting lending activity and aiding revenue growth during the year. The likely decline in defaults will also allow issuers to reduce provisions, lifting the average industry profit margin to 5.9% in 2025-26. Credit card issuance revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 4.1% over the five years through 2030-31 to reach £19.3 billion. Demand for credit cards from younger demographics is set to pick up in the coming years, with TransUnion finding more Gen Z consumers getting credit cards in 2023 compared to Millennials a decade earlier, positioning the industry for solid growth. The intensifying threat of buy-now-pay-later platforms will also cool as the FCA clamps down on the industry, introducing new regulations that increase transparency and checks to ensure borrowers can repay their debt. Issuers will also seek to capitalise on the growing market of environmentally conscious consumers, using recycled plastics and biodegradable alternatives for credit cards. This will give smaller issuers a healthy source of competition to compete with more established companies, weighing on market share concentration.

Bad Credit Loans Service Market Outlook

The global bad credit loans service market size was valued at approximately USD 54.3 billion in 2023, and it is projected to grow to around USD 112.9 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% during the forecast period. The growth of this market is driven by increasing consumer debt levels, the advent of financial technology, and the rising acceptance of online lending platforms. The bad credit loans service market provides essential financial solutions to individuals and businesses that struggle to secure traditional loans due to poor credit ratings.

One major growth factor in this market is the increasing consumer debt levels globally. With economic instability and rising costs of living, more individuals and businesses are finding themselves in precarious financial situations. Consequently, the demand for bad credit loans has surged, as these loans offer a lifeline to those who cannot access conventional financing. Financial institutions and fintech companies are capitalizing on this demand by offering specialized loan products tailored to individuals with poor credit histories.

Another significant driver is the rapid development and adoption of financial technology (fintech). Fintech companies are revolutionizing the lending industry by introducing innovative online platforms that simplify the loan application process, making it more accessible and user-friendly. These platforms leverage advanced algorithms and big data analytics to assess the creditworthiness of applicants more accurately, enabling lenders to offer competitive interest rates even to those with bad credit. The convenience and speed of online lending have attracted a growing number of consumers, further fueling the market's expansion.

The rising acceptance of online lending platforms also plays a critical role in the market's growth. Traditional financial institutions are often slow to adapt to technological changes, creating an opportunity for online lenders to fill the gap. Consumers are increasingly turning to online platforms for their loan needs due to the ease of application, faster approval times, and greater transparency. This shift is particularly pronounced among younger demographics who are more comfortable with digital financial services, thereby driving the market forward.

From a regional perspective, North America holds a significant share of the bad credit loans service market, driven by high consumer debt levels and a well-established financial infrastructure. Europe follows closely, with growing awareness and adoption of fintech solutions contributing to the market's growth. The Asia Pacific region is expected to witness the highest growth rate, owing to increasing internet penetration, a burgeoning middle class, and supportive government policies. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also showing promising growth, albeit at a slower pace, due to economic challenges and lower financial inclusion.

Small Business Loan options are becoming increasingly important for entrepreneurs and small enterprises, especially those with less-than-perfect credit scores. These loans provide essential capital for small businesses to manage cash flow, invest in growth opportunities, and sustain operations during challenging times. With the rise of fintech platforms, small business owners now have access to a variety of loan products tailored to their unique needs, even if they have a bad credit history. The flexibility and accessibility of small business loans make them a vital resource for fostering innovation and entrepreneurship in the economy.

Loan Type Analysis

The bad credit loans service market is segmented into various loan types, including personal loans, auto loans, home loans, credit card loans, and others. Personal loans constitute a significant portion of the market, as they offer versatile financial solutions for various personal expenses. Individuals with bad credit often turn to personal loans for debt consolidation, medical emergencies, or unexpected expenditures. These loans typically come with higher interest rates to offset the risk posed by low credit scores, but they provide a vital financial resource for those in need.

Auto loans also form a crucial segment within the bad credit loans service market. Many individuals with poor credit scores rely on these loans to purchase vehicles, which are essential for commuting and personal mobil

Graph and download economic data for Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks (DRCCLACBS) from Q1 1991 to Q2 2025 about credit cards, delinquencies, commercial, loans, banks, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

Nigeria’s inflation has been higher than the average for African and Sub-Saharan countries for years now, and even exceeded 16 percent in 2017 – and a real, significant decrease is nowhere in sight. The bigger problem is its unsteadiness, however: An inflation rate that is bouncing all over the place, like this one, is usually a sign of a struggling economy, causing prices to fluctuate, and unemployment and poverty to increase. Nigeria’s economy - a so-called “mixed economy”, which means the market economy is at least in part regulated by the state – is not entirely in bad shape, though. More than half of its GDP is generated by the services sector, namely telecommunications and finances, and the country derives a significant share of its state revenues from oil.

Because it got high

To simplify: When the inflation rate rises, so do prices, and consequently banks raise their interest rates as well to cope and maintain their profit margin. Higher interest rates often cause unemployment to rise. In certain scenarios, rising prices can also mean more panicky spending and consumption among end users, causing debt and poverty. The extreme version of this is called hyperinflation: A rapid increase of prices that is out of control and leads to bankruptcies en masse, devaluation of money and subsequently a currency reform, among other things. But does that mean that low inflation is better? Maybe, but only to a certain degree; the ECB, for example, aspires to maintain an inflation rate of about two percent so as to keep the economy stable. As soon as we reach deflation territory, however, things are starting to look grim again. The best course is a stable inflation rate, to avoid uncertainty and rash actions.

Nigeria today

Nigeria is one of the countries with the largest populations worldwide and also the largest economy in Africa, with its economy growing rapidly after a slump in the aforementioned year 2017. It is slated to be one of the countries with the highest economic growth over the next few decades. Demographic key indicators, like infant mortality rate, fertility rate, and the median age of the population, all point towards a bright future. Additionally, the country seems to make big leaps forward in manufacturing and technological developments, and boasts huge natural resources, including natural gas. All in all, Nigeria and its inflation seem to be on the upswing – or on the path to stabilization, as it were.

At the end of 2024, Zimbabwe had the highest inflation rate in the world, at 736.11 percent change compared to the previous year. Inflation in industrialized and in emerging countries Higher inflation rates are more present in less developed economies, as they often lack a sufficient central banking system, which in turn results in the manipulation of currency to achieve short term economic goals. Thus, interest rates increase while the general economic situation remains constant. In more developed economies and in the prime emerging markets, the inflation rate does not fluctuate as sporadically. Additionally, the majority of countries that maintained the lowest inflation rate compared to previous years are primarily oil producers or small island independent states. These countries experienced deflation, which occurs when the inflation rate falls below zero; this may happen for a variety of factors, such as a shift in supply or demand of goods and services, or an outflow of capital.