The UK inflation rate was 3.4 percent in May 2025, down from 3.5 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since February 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23. Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.

In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom was 2.5 percent, with the average rate for 2025 predicted to rise to 3.2 percent, revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 2.6 percent. The UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite an uptick in inflation expected in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1 percent in 2026, and two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 3.40 percent in May from 3.50 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Core consumer prices in the United Kingdom increased 3.50 percent in May of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The core inflation rate for the UK was 3.5 percent in May 2025, down from 3.8 percent in the previous month. Core inflation measures inflation without food and energy prices, which can be far more volatile than inflation for other goods and services.

In May 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was two percent and 4.7 percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between in 2021 and 2022 before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate, but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double-figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of this month, the UK's inflation rate was 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.

Energy Inflation in the United Kingdom decreased to -1.70 percent in May from -0.90 percent in April of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Energy Inflation.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-01 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Inflation is an important measure of any country’s economy, and the Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the most widely used indicators in the United Kingdom, with the rate expected to be 4.1 percent in 2025, compared with 3.6 percent in 2024. This followed 2022, when RPI inflation reached a rate of 11.6 percent, by far the highest annual rate during this provided time period. CPI vs RPI Although the Retail Price Index is a commonly utilized inflation indicator, the UK also uses a newer method of calculating inflation, the Consumer Price Index. The CPI, along with the CPIH (Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs) are usually preferred by the UK government, but the RPI is still used in certain instances. Increases in rail fares for example, are calculated using the RPI, while increases in pension payments are calculated using CPI, when this is used as the uprating factor. The use of one inflation measure over the other can therefore have a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK. High inflation falls to more typical levels by 2024 Like the Retail Price Index, the Consumer Price Index inflation rate also reached a recent peak in October 2022. In that month, prices were rising by 11.1 percent and did not fall below double figures until April 2023. This fall was largely due to slower price increases in key sectors such as energy, which drove a significant amount of the 2022 wave of inflation. Inflation nevertheless remains elevated, fueled not only by high food inflation, but also by underlying core inflation. As of February 2025, the overall CPI inflation rate was 2.8 percent, although an uptick in inflation is expected later in the year, with a rate of 3.7 percent forecast for the third quarter of the year.

Services Inflation in the United Kingdom decreased to 4.70 percent in May from 5.40 percent in April of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Services Inflation.

The inflation rate for the Retail Price Index (RPI) in the United Kingdom was 4.3 percent in May 2025, down from 4.5 percent in the previous month. From 2021 onwards, prices in the UK rose rapidly, with the RPI inflation rate peaking at 14.2 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell in subsequent months, it wasn't until July 2023 that inflation fell below double digits, and as of late 2024, the RPI rate was still above three percent. The CPI and CPIH While the retail price index is still a popular method of calculating inflation, the consumer price index (CPI) is the current main measurement of inflation in the UK. There is also an additional price index, which includes some extra housing costs, known as the Consumer Price Index including homer occupiers' costs (CPIH) index, which is seen by the UK's Office of National Statistics as the official inflation rate. As of December 2024, the CPI inflation rate stood at 2.5 percent, while the CPIH rate was 3.5 percent. Core inflation down in 2024 Another way of measuring inflation is to strip out the volatility of energy and food prices and look at the underlying core inflation rate. As of December 2024, this was 3.2 percent, slightly higher than the overall CPI rate, but more aligned with the overall figure than it was in 2022 and 2023. When inflation peaked at 11.2 percent in October 2022, for example, core inflation stood at just 6.5 percent. After energy prices in 2023 fell relative to 2022, the overall inflation rate in the UK declined quite rapidly, with core inflation overtaking the overall rate in July 2023. During the most recent period of high inflation, core inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in May 2023, and while taking longer to fall than the overall figure, has generally been declining since then.

Over the five years through 2024-25, travel insurance revenue is expected to fall at a compound annual rate of 2% to £554.7 million. The industry has been marked by fierce volatility in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and turbulent economic conditions in the years following clobbering international travel. The COVID-19 outbreak clobbered international travel in 2020-21, brining demand for travel insurance down with it. Although insurers were quick to adapt, providing COVID-specific coverage for cancellations and unexpected medical expenses, this wasn’t enough to offset the drastic drop-off in demand. This resulted in many travel insurers suspending services during the pandemic, contributing to a mighty fall in revenue in the two years through 2021-22. As travel restrictions fully eased in 2022-23, travel rebounded and incited a rally in claims costs. However, rising premiums were able to absorb these costs, supporting profitability and driving revenue growth during the year. Demand for travel insurance has slowed in the years since as international travel closes in on pre-pandemic heights, beginning to plateau. At the same time, the cost-of-living crisis has dented consumer confidence and resulted in many opting out of holidays, weighing on revenue growth. Still, revenue is slated to spike by 12.9% in 2024-25. Additionally, COVID-19 was arguably a blessing in disguise, highlighting the importance of travel insurance and incentivising insurers to offer more personalised coverage, something allowed for by technological developments like AI. Over the five years through 2029-30, travel insurance revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 4.9% to £705.7 million. Demand will to remain robust in the coming years as the effects of COVID-19 on travel remain at the forefront of holidaymakers’ minds, encouraging them to seek protection from unexpected disruption like political instability and natural disasters. The improving economic environment is also set to lift demand for travel insurance, making people more willing to go on holiday. Yet, despite inflation coming down, prices are still rising, placing continued pressure on people’s finances and weighing on revenue growth in the short term. Technological developments will continue to shake up the industry, providing insurers with niche markets to capitalise on and price risk effectively, something that wouldn’t have been possible before advancements in data analytics and AI.

In the three months to April 2025, average weekly earnings in the United Kingdom grew by 5.2 percent, while pay including bonuses grew by 5.3 percent, when compared with the same period leading to April 2024. In the same month, the inflation rate for the Consumer Price Index was 3.5 percent, indicating that wages were rising faster than prices that month. Average salaries in the UK In 2024, the average salary for full-time workers in the UK was 37,430 British pounds a year, up from 34,963 in the previous year. In London, the average annual salary was far higher than the rest of the country, at 47,455 pounds per year, compared with just 32,960 in North East England. There also still exists a noticeable gender pay gap in the UK, which was seven percent for full-time workers in 2024, down from 7.5 percent in 2023. Lastly, the monthly earnings of the top one percent in the UK was 15,887 pounds as of November 2024, far higher than even that of the average for the top five percent, who earned 7,641 pounds per month, while pay for the lowest 10 percent of earners was just 805 pounds per month. Waves of industrial action in the UK One of the main consequences of high inflation and low wage growth throughout 2022 and 2023 was an increase in industrial action in the UK. In December 2022, for example, there were approximately 830,000 working days lost due to labor disputes. Throughout this month, workers across various industry sectors were involved in industrial disputes, such as nurses, train drivers, and driving instructors. Many of the workers who took part in strikes were part of the UK's public sector, which saw far weaker wage growth than that of the private sector throughout 2022. Widespread industrial action continued into 2023, with approximately 303,000 workers involved in industrial disputes in March 2023. There was far less industrial action by 2024, however, due to settlements in many of the disputes, although some are ongoing as of 2025.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

In March 2025, the inflation rate for food prices in the United Kingdom was measured at three percent. A period of continuous deflation between March 2015 and January 2017 preceded a return to a sustained rise in the cost of food from February 2017 onwards. While food prices were deflating between September 2020 and July 2021, they started increasing rapidly from August 2021 to March 2023. The inflation rate started to decline from April 2023. Inflation rate and consumer price indexInflation is commonly measured via the consumer price index, which illustrates changes to prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. An annualized percentage change in the price index constitutes a measure of inflation. In order to maintain an inflation rate at a stable level, to enable the general public and businesses to plan their spending, the Government set a two percent inflation target for the Bank of England. The discounter boom The increase in food prices in the United Kingdom has shifted shopping behaviours amongst consumers. Value is now key and shoppers are changing their retailer loyalties. Aldi, the German discount supermarket retailer, overtook Morrisons as Great Britain's fourth largest supermarket in September of 2022. Aldi's market share reached double digits for the first time in April 2023. It is yet to be seen if Lidl, Aldi's discounter competitor, can also continue to rise up in the ranks and eventually take over Morrisons as the fifth leading food retailer.

Construction Output Price Indices (OPIs) from January 2014 to December 2024, UK. Summary.

Financial leasing revenue is expected to remain flat over the five years through 2024-25, sitting at £16.1 billion, including growth of 5.2% in 2024-25. Financial lessors have navigated a turbulent environment over recent years, responding to aggressive rate hikes from the Bank of England ratcheting up borrowing costs. The regulatory climate has also seen significant changes, with financial lessors seeing their accounting and reporting costs climb following changes to the International Accounting Standards. This involved putting leases of more than one year on the balance sheet of the lessee. A rising base rate environment through 2023-24 amid spiralling inflation has aided interest income despite demand being softened by subdued economic growth. Interest rates remained high in 2023-24 as inflation proved sticky, lifting interest income for each transaction, but softening demand as lessees faced greater interest payments, dampening revenue growth. Making things worse, lessors may choose to bear the brunt of interest rate hikes to sustain demand, threatening profitability. In 2024-25, with inflation contained, interest rates will continue coming down, supporting leasing activity through a reduction in interest payments for lessees. However, regulatory changes related to Basel III introductions and new International Accounting Standards will weigh on the average industry profit margin, though they have benefited the Financial Leasing industry's reputation. Lessors have also been proactive in limiting exposure to changes in the value of the pound, which has been particularly volatile in recent years. Lessors entering into forward contracts to lock in exchange rates for a future date have been better able to fend of fluctuations in the pound, supporting profitability. Financial leasing revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.3% to reach £19.9 billion. The higher base rate environment will become the norm for financial lessors, forcing them to adapt to higher borrowing costs to maintain healthy profit. Compliance with legislative changes related to Brexit will also place pressure on profitability. However, the delay of the Basel III reforms will provide banks with flexibility when lending, feeding into lower borrower costs for lessors and supporting profit. The rise of financial technology will also spur technological innovation related to big data analysis for data collected from asset monitoring systems.

The Business Confidence Index (BCI) of the United Kingdom was 99.3 in April 2025, compared with 99.1 in the previous month, an indication that business confidence is growing in the UK. During this time period, business confidence was highest in late 2021, and was at its lowest point in March 2009. Taxation overtakes inflation as main business concern In the third quarter of 2023, inflation was seen by 65 percent of UK firms as a major external concern facing their business. At that time, the UK's inflation rate was still at the relatively high figure of 6.7 percent, although this was down from a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. As the rate of inflation continued to fall in 2024, the issue became slightly less pressing for UK businesses, with 49 percent seeing it as a main concern in the second quarter of 2024, although it was still ahead of other issues. In the second half of 2024, however, taxation has emerged as the main worry for UK firms, with 63 percent of businesses citing it as an external concern in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is likely related to the rise in National Insurance businesses will have to pay from April 2025 onwards, one of the main measures announced in the Autumn Budget in October 2024. UK business demographics In 2024, there were approximately 5.5 million private business enterprises in the UK, which was down from a peak of 5.98 million in 2020. As of this year, the UK's private sector workforce was around 27.6 million, compared with 6.1 million who worked in the public sector. While most businesses in the UK are small enterprises that employ fewer than ten people, the UK's large businesses are responsible for employing a large share of the workforce, with around 8.2 million people working for large businesses in 2024. The biggest UK-based company, in terms of global employees in 2024 was the Compass Group, with a global workforce of around half a million, followed by Tesco at 345,000 employees.

Wages for regular pay in the United Kingdom grew by approximately 5.2 percent in April 2025, although when adjusted for inflation, wages for regular pay only grew in real terms by 1.4 percent. Twenty months of inflation outpacing wages Between November 2021 and June 2023 inflation was higher than wage growth in the UK, resulting in falling real terms earnings throughout this 20-month period. While UK inflation peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022, it was not until April 2023 that it fell below double figures, and not until May 2024 that it reached the Bank of England's target of two percent. Forecasts from the Autumn 2024 budget predict that the annual UK inflation will for 2024 will be 2.5 percent, down from 7.3 percent in 2023 and 9.1 percent in 2022. Due to high inflation, the UK's minimum wage also rose quite significantly during this period, with the "main" rate increasing from 8.91 pounds per hour in 2021 to 12.21 pounds per hour in 2025. Average earnings and gender pay gap For full-time workers in the United Kingdom, the median average annual earnings was 37,430 British pounds in 2024, compared with 34,663 pounds in 2023. In London, average earnings were significantly higher than the rest of the country, at 47,455 pounds. Just two other areas of the United Kingdom, the South East and Scotland, had annual salaries above the UK average. North East England had the lowest average salary, at 32,960 pounds. As of 2024, the gender pay gap for median gross hourly earnings in the UK was 13.1 percent for all workers, falling to seven percent for full-time workers and -3 percent for part-time workers. Compared with 1997, when the gender pay gap was 27.5 percent for all workers, there has been a degree of progress, although, at current trends, it will be some time before the gap is closed entirely.

The economy was seen by 49 percent of people in the UK as one of the top three issues facing the country in June 2025. The ongoing cost of living crisis afflicting the UK, driven by high inflation, is still one of the main concerns of Britons. Immigration has generally been the second most important issue since the middle of 2024, just ahead of health, which was seen as the third-biggest issue in the most recent month. Labour's popularity continues to sink in 2025 Despite winning the 2024 general election with a strong majority, the new Labour government has had its share of struggles since coming to power. Shortly after taking office, the approval rating for Labour stood at -2 percent, but this fell throughout the second half of 2024, and by January 2025 had sunk to a new low of -47 percent. Although this was still higher than the previous government's last approval rating of -56 percent, it is nevertheless a severe review from the electorate. Among several decisions from the government, arguably the least popular was the government withdrawing winter fuel payments. This state benefit, previously paid to all pensioners, is now only paid to those on low incomes, with millions of pensioners not receiving this payment in winter 2024. Sunak's pledges fail to prevent defeat in 2024 With an election on the horizon, and the Labour Party consistently ahead in the polls, addressing voter concerns directly was one of the best chances the Conservatives had of staying in power in 2023. At the start of that year, Rishi Sunak attempted to do this by setting out his five pledges for the next twelve months; halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce national debt, cut NHS waiting times, and stop small boats. A year later, Sunak had at best only partial success in these aims. Although the inflation rate fell, economic growth was weak and even declined in the last two quarters of 2023, although it did return to growth in early 2024. National debt was only expected to fall in the mid to late 2020s, while the trend of increasing NHS waiting times did not reverse. Small boat crossings were down from 2022, but still higher than in 2021 or 2020. .