The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in September 2025 after reporting zero growth in the previous month. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now slightly larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

The United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.3 percent in 2023, 5.1 percent in 2022, 8.5 percent in 2021, and a record ten percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Between 2027 and 2030, the economy is forecast to grow by ****percent every year. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. Long-term growth downgraded Although the UK economy will grow faster than expected in 2025, long-term economic growth is predicted to be slower. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as lower than expected productivity growth were some of the main reasons cited for this downgrade. In addition, the UK's inflation rate for 2025 was also revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment has also been higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the current government elected, although after one and a half years in power it has so far proven elusive.

The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2024 was around 2.78 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.75 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. UK's global share of GDP falling As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.  

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.10 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Annexe showing data regarding to specific transactions referred to in the article, as well as summary impacts to the Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector.

The Scottish economy, such as the United Kingdom (UK) economy, has been exposed to several adverse shocks over the past 5 years. Examples of these are the effect of the United Kingdom exiting the European Union (Brexit), the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently Russia–Ukraine war, which can result in adverse direct and indirect economic losses across various sectors of the economy. These shocks disrupted the food and drink supply chains. The purpose of this article is 3-fold: (1) to explore the degree of resilience of the Scottish food and drink sector, (2) to estimate the effects on interconnected sectors of the economy, and (3) to estimate the economic losses, which is the financial value associated with the reduction in output. This article focuses on the impact that the sudden contraction that the “accommodation and food service activities”, resulting from the pandemic, had on the food and drink sectors. For this analysis, the study relied on the dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM), which takes into account the relationships across the different sectors of the Scottish economy over time. The results indicate that the accommodation and food service sector was the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown contracting by approximately 60%. The DIIM shows that the disruption to this sector had a cascading effect on the remaining 17 sectors of the economy. The processed and preserved fish, fruits, and vegetable sector is the least resilient, while preserved meat and meat product sector is the most resilient to the final demand disruption in the accommodation and food service sector. The least economically affected sector was the other food product sector, while the other service sector had the highest economic loss. Although the soft drink sector had a slow recovery rate, economic losses were lower compared to the agricultural, fishery, and forestry sectors. From the policy perspective, stakeholders in the accommodation and food service sector should re-examine the sector and develop capacity against future pandemics. In addition, it is important for economic sectors to collaborate either vertically or horizontally by sharing information and risk to reduce the burden of future disruptions. Finally, the most vulnerable sectors of the economy, i.e., other service sectors should form a major part of government policy decision-making when planning against future pandemics.

United Kingdom's main stock market index, the GB100, fell to 9690 points on December 2, 2025, losing 0.13% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has declined 0.12%, though it remains 15.91% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United Kingdom. United Kingdom Stock Market Index (GB100) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The main aim of this work is to develop a set of high level macro economic scenarios for the medium-term (to the end of 2022) and for the long-term (to 2030) in order to inform the development of recovery strategies in London, reflecting unprecedented uncertainty on the economic outlook. The primary scenario dimensions include Effectiveness/nature of public health response and Effectiveness/impact of economic support measures. Other scenario dimensions include: Brexit and migration; International economic context; Technology and innovation; Financial climate; Political economy; Economic Geography and GHG emissions. This is an agile project - GLA Economics will continue to track actual data in order to review the assessment of the likelihood of alternative scenario outcomes. Successive updates will be released when they become available for the benefit of external stakeholders in tackling the COVID-19 crisis.

Construction output in the United Kingdom increased 1.30 percent in September of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Construction Output - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Monthly GDP MoM in the United Kingdom decreased to -0.10 percent in September from 0 percent in August of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Monthly GDP MoM.

Economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures have spurred a degree of instability in the UK economy in recent years. This has made private investors reluctant to dedicate significant spending towards capital ventures, weighing on lead generation in commercial building construction markets. High construction costs and rising interest rates have created further apprehension among property developers to engage in new ventures, though long-term government capital procurement frameworks have provided some resilience to wavering private investment. Aided by the release of pent-up demand and a stronger-than-anticipated initial economic recovery from the pandemic, the industry recorded a strong rebound in new orders in 2021-22, particularly in private commercial and private industrial markets. However, capacity constraints and the impact of reduced new work volumes secured during the height of the pandemic limited output growth. Growth in new order volumes slowed in 2022-23, as economic uncertainty compounded and rising tender prices reduced the propensity of investors to commit to commercial real estate ventures. High borrowing costs continued to weigh on investor sentiment in 2023-24, with interest rates hitting 5.25% in August 2023, according to the Bank of England. However, a steady stream of work on projects procured through capital procurement frameworks, including Procure23 and the School Rebuilding Programme, has bolstered revenue growth for publicly funded buildings. Overall, revenue is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 3.6% over the five years through 2025-26 to £21.6 billion, despite a forecast dip of 1.4% in 2025-26 as inflationary pressure hits demand. Revenue is slated to swell at a compound annual rate of 1.1% over the five years through 2030-31 to reach £22.9 billion. The effects of the UK's economic slowdown will continue to bite in the near term as weak order books limit remuneration. Still, commitments made by the government as part of capital procurement frameworks will continue to support demand for commercial building contractors in the coming years, while private-sector order books should improve as borrowing costs come down. Although input price inflation is set to continue to ease in the medium term, material costs are likely to remain elevated and a construction worker shortage will pressure profit. According to the Building Cost Information Service, material costs are anticipated to grow by 15% in the five years through Q3 2030.

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, macroeconomic policy returned to the political agenda, and the influence of Keynesian ideas about fiscal stimulus rose (and then fell) in expert circles. Much less is known, however, about whether and when Keynesian prescriptions for countercyclical spending have any support among the general public. We use a survey experiment, fielded twice, to recover the extent to which UK respondents hold such countercyclical attitudes. Our results indicate that public opinion was countercyclical -- Keynesian -- in 2016. We then use Eurobarometer data to estimate the same basic parameter for the population for the period 2010-2017. The observational results validate our experimental findings for the later period, but also provide evidence that the UK population held procyclical views at the start of the period. Thus, there appear to be important dynamics in public opinion on a key macroeconomic policy issue.

This statistic shows the national debt of the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the national debt in the United Kingdom was about 3.91 trillion U.S. dollars. Reduction of the national debt and recovery of the economy in the UK The debt of the United Kingdom, which amounted to around 1,600 billion pounds in 2014 - more than it has ever been - is projected to keep rising. Since the economic recession of 2007-08, economic growth in the United Kingdom has been slow, but it has been able to recover. In 2014, the United Kingdom recorded a 2.8 percent growth rate. Many believe that if the economy is stable, the government will reduce spending and not accrue any more debt, and it can indeed be seen that while government spending continues to increase, the gap between spending and revenue is projected to get smaller. If the government were to earn more than it spends, it could use the money left over to pay the national debt and start to reduce it. However, what is even more important is the size of the debt in relation to the size of the country's economy; if the debt grows slower than the economy, the debt to GDP ratio can still fall, despite a budget deficit. The ratio of government expenditure to GDP indicates that the economy is recovering at a faster rate than government expenditure, with the ratio decreasing significantly over the last decade and the national debt in relation to GDP being expected to decrease further as well - albeit slowly. This should help relieve concerns over the United Kingdom’s mounting debt, but for some debt reduction is just not fast enough.

The European Paint, Coatings and Printing Ink Manufacturing industry is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 4.6% to reach €60.2 billion over the five years through 2024, including a dip of 3.5% in 2024. The industry has contended with vast fluctuations in demand, with the long-term decline in printing and a stalling of automobile production during COVID-19, which led to declining in revenue in 2021 and 2022. As sales of paints, inks and coatings typically follow the broader economy, sales were boosted by the post-pandemic recovery, although this was short-lived, with strong economic headwinds hitting key downstream markets and raw material suppliers following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While some of the industry’s most prominent manufacturers are international operators boasting strong regional and global name brand names, supply chains across the board have been hit by a string of raw material price spikes. High inflation and interest rates have curbed consumer and commercial spending, limiting paint sales. A recovery in the European economy will stimulate investment in construction and automobile production, as well as encourage households to undertake renovation, refurbishment and decoration activity. This will spark demand for paints, coatings and printing inks, helping to boost revenue over the five years through 2029 at compound annual rate of 2.5% to €68.2 billion. As the outlook improves, manufacturers will allocate greater capital towards innovation in their production facilities, leading to higher productivity and a greater array of specialist products that can supplant the low-cost alternatives imported from East Asia.

•GLA Economics has produced long-run projections of London’s employment since 2002. These projections are trend based and set out the long run path of employment considered most likely based on the historic data available at the time of construction. These are used within the GLA for planning to provide capacity to accommodate the longer-terms needs of the London economy. Given their importance to GLA policy planning, this note looks at how the GLA Economics’ employment projections have performed since 2002 and how this compares to projections from some other respected organisations. •Although GLA Economics’ employment projections are consistently below outturn, much of this is the result of upward revisions to historic employment data (which underpin the projections model). Further, the projections perform relatively well when looking at the projected annual growth rate and average annual error in relation to outturn, with the accuracy of the projections generally improving the longer the time period over which the estimates are analysed. •The revisions to historic employment data also drive much of the variability in the GLA Economics’ employment projections numbers over time. However, and by design, the revised projections are relatively consistent over time and average revisions between iterations in GLA Economics employment projections are relatively small.

A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was *** percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU. The estimated hit to the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increases to ***** percent in 2024, and to *** percent by 2025 in this forecast. UK growth cut at start of turbulent 2025 After growing by *** percent in 2024, the UK economy is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of *** percent. As of 2025, the UK economy is approximately *** percent larger than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic five years earlier, which delivered a sudden and severe economic shock to the country. While the initial bounce back from this collapse was robust, the recovery slowed by the end of 2020, and it wasn't until late 2021 that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic size. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the economy continued to struggle, and even experienced a recession at the end of 2023. How voters feel about Brexit in 2025 Since the middle of 2021, a growing majority of voters in Britain have advised that they think Brexit was the wrong decision. As of January 2025, around ** percent thought it was wrong to leave the EU, compared with just ** percent in April 2021. By comparison, the share of Britons who think Brexit was the right decision has fallen from ** percent to ** percent in the same time period. Voters are, however, still quite divided on what relationship they want with the EU, with only ** percent supporting rejoining completely. Furthermore, Brexit has fallen behind other issues for voters such as the economy, the NHS, and immigration and the issue played a much smaller role in the 2024 election than it did in 2019.

The Cement Manufacturing industry produces various types of cement, which are supplied to construction markets. Demand is influenced by residential, commercial and infrastructure construction market activity, which typically runs pro-cyclical to the wider economy. A few major global construction material manufacturers dominate the market. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 7.2% over the five years through 2025-26 to £1.3 billion, including estimated growth of 3.6% in 2025-27. Following a solid recovery from its pandemic-driven dip in 2021-22, revenue continued on an upwards trajectory the year after, supported by hefty price hikes from manufacturers as they sought to maintain profit amid spiralling inflation. Revenue growth slowed in 2023-24, hit by weak construction activity – the result of rising interest rates and subdued economic growth. However, continued price hikes from manufacturers stemmed the drop in revenue. Although not to the same extent as 2023-24, construction is set for a modest decline in 2024-25 as high interest rates result in project delays and subdued consumer finances eat into demand for cement. The product mix is set for a shake-up as customers seek more environmentally friendly alternatives to traditional Portland cement. This is prompting manufacturers to pour money into developing green products like blended cement, which mixes Portland cement with supplementary materials like fly ash and silica fume. Despite lingering economic uncertainty in 2025-26, marked by supply chain difficulties and escalating costs, cement sales are being bolstered by state funded infrastructure projects. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 3.6% over the five years through 2030-31 to £1.5 billion. Construction activity is set to return to growth in 2026-27, supported by stronger UK economic growth, real wage increases and lower mortgage rates, ramping up the need for cement. Key public projects (like Network North and Hinkley Point C) and the £725 billion pledged in the 10 year Infrastructure Strategy will provide a consistent source of demand for cement through healthy levels of infrastructure activity. Reaching net-zero emissions is a pressing issue that cement makers will need to take steps towards, such as through carbon capture factories like the Cement 2 Zero plant and sustainable products.

The GBP/USD exchange rate fell to 1.3199 on December 2, 2025, down 0.11% from the previous session. Over the past month, the British Pound has strengthened 0.44%, and is up by 4.14% over the last 12 months. British Pound - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.