In the Cook Islands in 2024, the population decreased by about 2.24 percent compared to the previous year, making it the country with the highest population decline rate in 2024. Of the 20 countries with the highest rate of population decline, the majority are island nations, where emigration rates are high (especially to Australia, New Zealand, and the United States), or they are located in Eastern Europe, which suffers from a combination of high emigration rates and low birth rates.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, and reach eight billion in 2023, and will peak at almost 11 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two thirds of the world's population live in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a decade later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

Globally, about 25 percent of the population is under 15 years of age and 10 percent is over 65 years of age. Africa has the youngest population worldwide. In Sub-Saharan Africa, more than 40 percent of the population is below 15 years, and only three percent are above 65, indicating the low life expectancy in several of the countries. In Europe, on the other hand, a higher share of the population is above 65 years than the population under 15 years. Fertility rates The high share of children and youth in Africa is connected to the high fertility rates on the continent. For instance, South Sudan and Niger have the highest population growth rates globally. However, about 50 percent of the world’s population live in countries with low fertility, where women have less than 2.1 children. Some countries in Europe, like Latvia and Lithuania, have experienced a population decline of one percent, and in the Cook Islands, it is even above two percent. In Europe, the majority of the population was previously working-aged adults with few dependents, but this trend is expected to reverse soon, and it is predicted that by 2050, the older population will outnumber the young in many developed countries. Growing global population As of 2025, there are 8.1 billion people living on the planet, and this is expected to reach more than nine billion before 2040. Moreover, the global population is expected to reach 10 billions around 2060, before slowing and then even falling slightly by 2100. As the population growth rates indicate, a significant share of the population increase will happen in Africa.

Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.5 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2024, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.8 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.4 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2021. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

The world population surpassed eight billion people in 2022, having doubled from its figure less than 50 years previously. Looking forward, it is projected that the world population will reach nine billion in 2038, and 10 billion in 2060, but it will peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before it then goes into decline. Regional variations The global population has seen rapid growth since the early 1800s, due to advances in areas such as food production, healthcare, water safety, education, and infrastructure, however, these changes did not occur at a uniform time or pace across the world. Broadly speaking, the first regions to undergo their demographic transitions were Europe, North America, and Oceania, followed by Latin America and Asia (although Asia's development saw the greatest variation due to its size), while Africa was the last continent to undergo this transformation. Because of these differences, many so-called "advanced" countries are now experiencing population decline, particularly in Europe and East Asia, while the fastest population growth rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, the roughly two billion difference in population between now and the 2080s' peak will be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, which will rise from 1.2 billion to 3.2 billion in this time (although populations in other continents will also fluctuate). Changing projections The United Nations releases their World Population Prospects report every 1-2 years, and this is widely considered the foremost demographic dataset in the world. However, recent years have seen a notable decline in projections when the global population will peak, and at what number. Previous reports in the 2010s had suggested a peak of over 11 billion people, and that population growth would continue into the 2100s, however a sooner and shorter peak is now projected. Reasons for this include a more rapid population decline in East Asia and Europe, particularly China, as well as a prolongued development arc in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Before 2025, the world's total population is expected to reach eight billion. Furthermore, it is predicted to reach over 10 billion in 2060, before slowing again as global birth rates are expected to decrease. Moreover, it is still unclear to what extent global warming will have an impact on population development. A high share of the population increase is expected to happen on the African continent.

According to latest figures, the Chinese population decreased by 1.39 million to around 1.408 billion people in 2024. After decades of rapid growth, China arrived at the turning point of its demographic development in 2022, which was earlier than expected. The annual population decrease is estimated to remain at moderate levels until around 2030 but to accelerate thereafter. Population development in China China had for a long time been the country with the largest population worldwide, but according to UN estimates, it has been overtaken by India in 2023. As the population in India is still growing, the country is very likely to remain being home of the largest population on earth in the near future. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.1 percent in 2024. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 18 percent of the overall global population in 2022. China's aging population In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.

Between 1800 and 2021, the total population of each continent experienced consistent growth, however as growth rates varied by region, population distribution has fluctuated. In the early 19th century, almost 70 percent of the world's population lived in Asia, while fewer than 10 percent lived in Africa. By the end of this century, it is believed that Asia's share will fall to roughly 45 percent, while Africa's will be on course to reach 40 percent. 19th and 20th centuries Fewer than 2.5 percent of the world's population lived in the Americas in 1800, however the demographic transition, along with waves of migration, would see this share rise to almost 10 percent a century later, peaking at almost 14 percent in the 1960s. Europe's share of the global population also grew in the 19th century, to roughly a quarter in 1900, but fell thereafter and saw the largest relative decline during the 20th century. Asia, which has consistently been the world's most populous continent, saw its population share drop by the mid-1900s, but it has been around 60 percent since the 1970s. It is important to note that the world population has grown from approximately one to eight billion people between 1800 and the 2020s, and that declines in population distribution before 2020 have resulted from different growth rates across the continents. 21st century Africa's population share remained fairly constant throughout this time, fluctuating between 7.5 and 10 percent until the late-1900s, but it is set to see the largest change over the 21st century. As Europe's total population is now falling, and it is estimated that the total populations of Asia and the Americas will fall by the 2050s and 2070s respectively, rapid population growth in Africa will see a significant shift in population distribution. Africa's population is predicted to grow from 1.3 to 3.9 billion people over the next eight decades, and its share of the total population will rise to almost 40 percent. The only other continent whose population will still be growing at this time will be Oceania, although its share of the total population has never been more than 0.7 percent.

Until 2100, the world's population is expected to be ageing. Whereas people over 60 years made up less than 13 percent of the world's population in 2024, this share is estimated to reach 28.8 percent in 2100. On the other hand, the share of people between zero and 14 years was expected to decrease by almost ten percentage points over the same period.

This statistic shows the 20 countries with the highest population growth rate in 2024. In SouthSudan, the population grew by about 4.65 percent compared to the previous year, making it the country with the highest population growth rate in 2024. The global population Today, the global population amounts to around 7 billion people, i.e. the total number of living humans on Earth. More than half of the global population is living in Asia, while one quarter of the global population resides in Africa. High fertility rates in Africa and Asia, a decline in the mortality rates and an increase in the median age of the world population all contribute to the global population growth. Statistics show that the global population is subject to increase by almost 4 billion people by 2100. The global population growth is a direct result of people living longer because of better living conditions and a healthier nutrition. Three out of five of the most populous countries in the world are located in Asia. Ultimately the highest population growth rate is also found there, the country with the highest population growth rate is Syria. This could be due to a low infant mortality rate in Syria or the ever -expanding tourism sector.

The rise in excess mortality and the slight dip in fertility during the COVID-19 pandemic saw annual global population growth fall below one percent for the first time in decades. While many demographic metrics returned to their pre-pandemic trajectories by 2023, it is believed that annual population growth will remain below one percent in the coming years, with the global population expected to go into decline in the 2080s.

In 2022, India overtook China as the world's most populous country and now has almost 1.46 billion people. China now has the second-largest population in the world, still with just over 1.4 billion inhabitants, however, its population went into decline in 2023. Global population As of 2025, the world's population stands at almost 8.2 billion people and is expected to reach around 10.3 billion people in the 2080s, when it will then go into decline. Due to improved healthcare, sanitation, and general living conditions, the global population continues to increase; mortality rates (particularly among infants and children) are decreasing and the median age of the world population has steadily increased for decades. As for the average life expectancy in industrial and developing countries, the gap has narrowed significantly since the mid-20th century. Asia is the most populous continent on Earth; 11 of the 20 largest countries are located there. It leads the ranking of the global population by continent by far, reporting four times as many inhabitants as Africa. The Demographic Transition The population explosion over the past two centuries is part of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. Simply put, this transition results from a drastic reduction in mortality, which then leads to a reduction in fertility, and increase in life expectancy; this interim period where death rates are low and birth rates are high is where this population explosion occurs, and population growth can remain high as the population ages. In today's most-developed countries, the transition generally began with industrialization in the 1800s, and growth has now stabilized as birth and mortality rates have re-balanced. Across less-developed countries, the stage of this transition varies; for example, China is at a later stage than India, which accounts for the change in which country is more populous - understanding the demographic transition can help understand the reason why China's population is now going into decline. The least-developed region is Sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates remain close to pre-industrial levels in some countries. As these countries transition, they will undergo significant rates of population growth

From now until 2100, India and China will remain the most populous countries in the world, however China's population decline has already started, and it is on course to fall by around 50 percent in the 2090s; while India's population decline is projected to begin in the 2060s. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 2100, five will be located in Asia, four in Africa, as well as the United States. Rapid growth in Africa Rapid population growth across Africa will see the continent's population grow from around 1.5 billion people in 2024 to 3.8 billion in 2100. Additionally, unlike China or India, population growth in many of these countries is not expected to go into decline, and instead is expected to continue well into the 2100s. Previous estimates had projected these countries' populations would be much higher by 2100 (the 2019 report estimated Nigeria's population would exceed 650 million), yet the increased threat of the climate crisis and persistent instability is delaying demographic development and extending population growth. The U.S. as an outlier Compared to the nine other largest populations in 2100, the United States stands out as it is more demographically advanced, politically stable, and economically stronger. However, while most other so-called "advanced countries" are projected to see their population decline drastically in the coming decades, the U.S. population is projected to continue growing into the 2100s. This will largely be driven by high rates of immigration into the U.S., which will drive growth despite fertility rates being around 1.6 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman), and the slowing rate of life expectancy. Current projections estimate the U.S. will have a net migration rate over 1.2 million people per year for the remainder of the century.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around five children per woman in 1950, to 2.3 children per woman in 2023, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale.

When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, while it and Oceania are the only regions with above replacement level fertility rates. Until the 1980s, women in Africa could expect to have almost seven children throughout the course of their lifetimes, and there are still eight countries in Africa where the average woman of childbearing age can still expect to have five or more children in 2023. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rate in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975 - Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

Throughout most of human history, global population growth was very low; between 10,000BCE and 1700CE, the average annual increase was just 0.04 percent. Therefore, it took several thousand years for the global population to reach one billion people, doing so in 1803. However, this period marked the beginning of a global phenomenon known as the demographic transition, from which point population growth skyrocketed. With the introduction of modern medicines (especially vaccination), as well as improvements in water sanitation, food supply, and infrastructure, child mortality fell drastically and life expectancy increased, causing the population to grow. This process is linked to economic and technological development, and did not take place concurrently across the globe; it mostly began in Europe and other industrialized regions in the 19thcentury, before spreading across Asia and Latin America in the 20th century. As the most populous societies in the world are found in Asia, the demographic transition in this region coincided with the fastest period of global population growth. Today, Sub-Saharan Africa is the region at the earliest stage of this transition. As population growth slows across the other continents, with the populations of the Americas, Asia, and Europe expected to be in decline by the 2070s, Africa's population is expected to grow by three billion people by the end of the 21st century.

Prior to the arrival of European explorers in the Americas in 1492, it is estimated that the population of the continent was around sixty million people. Over the next two centuries, most scholars agree that the indigenous population fell to just ten percent of its pre-colonization level, primarily due to the Old World diseases (namely smallpox) brought to the New World by Europeans and African slaves, as well as through violence and famine.

Distribution

It is thought that the most densely populated region of the Americas was in the fertile Mexican valley, home to over one third of the entire continent, including several Mesoamerican civilizations such as the Aztec empire. While the mid-estimate shows a population of over 21 million before European arrival, one estimate suggests that there were just 730,000 people of indigenous descent in Mexico in 1620, just one hundred years after Cortes' arrival. Estimates also suggest that the Andes, home to the Incas, was the second most-populous region in the Americas, while North America (in this case, the region north of the Rio Grande river) may have been the most sparsely populated region. There is some contention as to the size of the pre-Columbian populations in the Caribbean, as the mass genocides, forced relocation, and pandemics that followed in the early stages of Spanish colonization make it difficult to predict these numbers.

Varying estimates Estimating the indigenous populations of the Americas has proven to be a challenge and point of contention for modern historians. Totals from reputable sources range from 8.4 million people to 112.55 million, and while both of these totals were published in the 1930s and 1960s respectively, their continued citation proves the ambiguity surrounding this topic. European settlers' records from the 15th to 17th centuries have also created challenges, due to their unrealistic population predictions and inaccurate methodologies (for example, many early settlers only counted the number of warriors in each civilization). Nonetheless, most modern historians use figures close to those given in the "Middle estimate" shown here, with similar distributions by region.

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an increase in the global death rate, but had little to no significant impact on birth rates, causing population growth to dip slightly. On a global level, population growth is determined by the difference between the birth and death rate, and this is known as the rate of natural change - on a national or regional level, population change is also affected by migration. Ongoing trends Since the middle of the 20th century, the global birth rate has been well above the global death rate, however, the gap between these figures has grown closer in recent years. The death rate is projected to overtake the birth rate in the 2080s, which means that the world's population will then go into decline. In the future, death rates will increase due to ageing populations across the world and a plateau in life expectancy. Why does this change? There are many reasons for falling death and birth rates in recent decades. Falling death rates have been driven by a reduction in infant and child mortality, as well as increased life expectancy. Falling birth rates were also driven by the reduction in child mortality, whereby mothers would have fewer children as survival rates rose - other factors include the drop in child marriage, improved contraception access and efficacy, and women choosing to have children later in life.

Projections published in 2022 estimated that the population in Italy will decrease in the following years. In January 2024, the Italian population added up to 59 million people, but in 2030 Italians will be 57.5 million individuals. Twenty years later, the population will be around 52.3 million people. Low birth rate and old population The birth rate in Italy has constantly dropped in the last years. In 2023, 6.4 children were born per 1,000 inhabitants, three babies less than in 2002. Nationwide, the highest number of births was registered in the southern regions, whereas central Italy had the lowest number of children born every 1,000 people. More specifically, the birth rate in the south stood at 7 infants, while in the center it was equal to 5.9 births. Consequently, the population in Italy has aged over the last decade. Between 2002 and 2024, the age distribution of the Italian population showed a growing share of people aged 65 years and older. As a result, the share of young people decreased. The European exception Similarly, the population in Europe is estimated to decrease in the coming years. In 2024, there were 740 million people living in Europe. In 2100, the figure is expected to drop to 586 million inhabitants. However, projections of the world population suggest that Europe might be the only continent experiencing a population decrease. For instance, the population in Africa could grow from 1.41 billion people in 2022 to 3.92 billion individuals in 2100, the fastest population growth worldwide.

The global population of Buddhists is projected to slightly increase up until the year 2030, at which point it will begin a gradual decline. In terms of its share of total world population, however, Buddhism has already seen a decline from over seven percent in 2010, with this being projected to decline further to close to five percent in 2050. This decline is related to Buddhism being popular in countries whose populations are in a natural decline, such as Japan or South Korea (and Thailand in the near future), as well as demographic developments in countries that have a policy of state atheism, such as China or Vietnam.While this decline in its traditional regions of influence in East and Southeast Asia will cause an aggregate fall in the number of Buddhists, there is likely to be some growth in other regions of the globe, such as Western European and North American countries, where the popularity of the ideas of Buddhism have grown in influence in recent decades.