Since the oil price shock in 1974 unemployment increased significantly and also did not really decline in periods of economic upswings in Europe. This is especially the case for the countries of the European Union; therefore we face a special need for explanation. Looking at the member states on finds considerable differences. Since 1977 the unemployment rate within the EU is higher than the average unemployment rate of all OECD countries. The economic upswing in the second half of the 80s relaxed the labor market but nevertheless the unemployment rate remained on a high level. This study deals with the development of unemployment between 1974 and 1993 in four different G7 countries: Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy. Besides the common trend of an increasing unemployment rate, there are significantly different developments within the four countries. The analysis is divided in two parts: the first part looks at the reasons for the increase in unemployment in the considered countries; the second part aims to explain the difference between the developments of unemployment during economic cycles in the different countries. After the description of similarities and differences of labor markets in the four countries it follows a long term analysis based on annual data as well as a short and medium term analysis on quarterly data. This is due to the fact that short and medium term developments are mainly influenced by cyclical economic developments but long term developments are mainly influenced by other factors like demographical and structural changes. A concrete question within this framework is if an increase in production potential can contribute to a decrease in unemployment. For the long term analysis among others the Hysteresis-hypothesis (Hysteresis = Greek: to remain; denotes the remaining effect; in this context: remaining of unemployment) used for the explanation of the persistence of a high unemployment rate. According to this approach consisting unemployment is barely decreased after economic recovery despite full utilization of capacity. According to the Hysteresis-hypothesis there are two reasons for this. The first reason is that for long term unemployed the abilities to work and the qualification level decreased, their human capital is partly devalued. The second reason is that employees give up wage restraint, because they do not fear unemployment anymore and therefore enforce higher real wages. Besides economic recovery companies are not willing to hire long term unemployed with a lower expected productivity for the higher established tariff wages. In the context of the empirical investigation a multiple explanatory approach is chosen which takes supply side and demand side factors into consideration. The short and medium term analysis refers to Okun´s law (=an increase in the unemployment rate is connected with a decrease of the GDP; if the unemployment rate stays unchanged, the GDP grows with 3% p.a.) and aims to analyze more detailed the reactions of unemployment to economic cycles. A geometrical lag-model is compared with a lag-model ager Almon. This should ensure a precise as possible analysis of the Okun´s relations and coefficients. Register of tables in HISTAT: A.: Unemployment in the European G7 countries B.: Analysis of unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany C.: Basic numbers: International comparison A.: Unemployment in the European G7 countries A.1. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, Germany (1974-1993) A.2. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, France (1974-1993) A.3. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, Great Britain (1974-1993) A.4. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, Italy (1974-1993) B: Analysis of unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany B.1. Growth of unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany (1984-1991) B.2. Output and unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany (1961-1990) C: Basic numbers: International comparison C.1. Unemployment in EU countries, the USA, Japan and Switzerland (1960-1996) C.2. Gainful employments in EU countries, the USA, Japan and Switzerland (after inland and residency concept) (1960-1996) C.3. Employees in EU countries, the USA and Japan (1960-1996) C.4. Population in EU countries, the USA and Japan (1960-1996)

Since the oil price shock in 1974 unemployment increased significantly and also did not really decline in periods of economic upswings in Europe. This is especially the case for the countries of the European Union; therefore we face a special need for explanation. Looking at the member states on finds considerable differences. Since 1977 the unemployment rate within the EU is higher than the average unemployment rate of all OECD countries. The economic upswing in the second half of the 80s relaxed the labor market but nevertheless the unemployment rate remained on a high level. This study deals with the development of unemployment between 1974 and 1993 in four different G7 countries: Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy.

Besides the common trend of an increasing unemployment rate, there are significantly different developments within the four countries. The analysis is divided in two parts: the first part looks at the reasons for the increase in unemployment in the considered countries; the second part aims to explain the difference between the developments of unemployment during economic cycles in the different countries.

After the description of similarities and differences of labor markets in the four countries it follows a long term analysis based on annual data as well as a short and medium term analysis on quarterly data. This is due to the fact that short and medium term developments are mainly influenced by cyclical economic developments but long term developments are mainly influenced by other factors like demographical and structural changes. A concrete question within this framework is if an increase in production potential can contribute to a decrease in unemployment.

For the long term analysis among others the Hysteresis-hypothesis (Hysteresis = Greek: to remain; denotes the remaining effect; in this context: remaining of unemployment) used for the explanation of the persistence of a high unemployment rate.

According to this approach consisting unemployment is barely decreased after economic recovery despite full utilization of capacity. According to the Hysteresis-hypothesis there are two reasons for this. The first reason is that for long term unemployed the abilities to work and the qualification level decreased, their human capital is partly devalued. The second reason is that employees give up wage restraint, because they do not fear unemployment anymore and therefore enforce higher real wages. Besides economic recovery companies are not willing to hire long term unemployed with a lower expected productivity for the higher established tariff wages. In the context of the empirical investigation a multiple explanatory approach is chosen which takes supply side and demand side factors into consideration.

The short and medium term analysis refers to Okun´s law (=an increase in the unemployment rate is connected with a decrease of the GDP; if the unemployment rate stays unchanged, the GDP grows with 3% p.a.) and aims to analyze more detailed the reactions of unemployment to economic cycles. A geometrical lag-model is compared with a lag-model ager Almon. This should ensure a precise as possible analysis of the Okun´s relations and coefficients.

Register of tables in HISTAT:

A.: Unemployment in the European G7 countries B.: Analysis of unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany C.: Basic numbers: International comparison

A.: Unemployment in the European G7 countries A.1. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, Germany (1974-1993) A.2. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, France (1974-1993) A.3. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, Great Britain (1974-1993) A.4. Determinates of unemployment in the EU, Italy (1974-1993)

B: Analysis of unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany B.1. Growth of unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany (1984-1991) B.2. Output and unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany (1961-1990)

C: Basic numbers: International comparison C.1. Unemployment in EU countries, the USA, Japan and Switzerland (1960-1996) C.2. Gainful employments in EU countries, the USA, Japan and Switzerland (after inland and residency concept) (1960-1996) C.3. Employees in EU countries, the USA and Japan (1960-1996) C.4. Population in EU countries, the USA and Japan (1960-1996)

The topic of this investigation is the expansion of universities and their structural changes during the past hundred years. The expansion of universities between 1870 and 1990 will be analyzed for five countries: Germany, Italy, France, USA and Japan. Those countries has gone through the process of industrialization and modernization in the past hundred years and experienced a strong expansion of the University system during that time. Two hypotheses which explain this growth will be tested; theory of human capital and theory of individual social status competition. The analysis is concentrated on the interaction between the educational and the economic system, especially during times of economic crisis. Topics: The matriculation rates at universities serve as an indicator for the expansion of the education system. Data on the national product, unemployment rates, expansion of public service and the growth of capital stock serve as an indicator for fluctuations of the economic system. The waves in the expansion of the education system were adjusted for demographical effects, which mean that only education rates were calculated. The education rate is defined as the proportion of a cohort that goes to university. For the European countries (Germany, Italy, France) the theory of individual social status competition is confirmed (anticyclical relation). In the USA and Japan a pro-cyclical relation between educational and economic system dominates (human capital theory). Time series in HISTAT (topic: education) - Matriculation rates for Germany, Italy and France - Number of diploma after 4 years of standard period of studies in the USA - Japan: matriculation rates within the age groups 20-24 years (after the Second World War the total number of students refers to 4 cohorts)

Die Expansion der Universitäten und ihr Strukturwandel während der letzten hundert Jahre sind das zentrale Thema der Untersuchung. Die Expansion der Universitäten zwischen 1870 und 1990 wird für fünf Länder analysiert: Deutschland, Italien, Frankreich, USA und Japan. Diese Länder haben während der letzten hundert Jahre den Prozess der Industrialisierung und Modernisierung angeführt und weisen ein in diesem Zeitraum stark expandierendes Hochschulsystem auf. Zwei Hypothesen, die das Wachstum erklären, werden getestet: Die Humankapital-Theorie und die Theorie der individuellen Statuskonkurrenz. Die Analyse konzentriert sich auf die Interaktion zwischen dem Bildungssystem und dem Wirtschaftssystem, insbesondere während einer ökonomischen Krise. Themen: Als Indikator für die Expansion des Bildungssystems dienen die Einschreibungsraten an den Universitäten, als Indikator für die konjunkturellen Schwankungen des ökonomischen Systems wurde Daten über das Sozialprodukt, die Arbeitslosenraten, die Expansion des öffentlichen Dienstes und das Wachstum des Kapitalstocks herangezogen. Die Schwingungen der Bildungsexpansion wurden von demographischen Effekten bereinigt, d.h. es wurde nur mit Bildungsquoten gerechnet. Die Bildungsquote wird definiert als der Anteil eines Jahrgangs, der die Hochschule besucht. Für die europäischen Länder (Deutschland, Italien, Frankreich) wird die Theorie der individuellen Statuskonkurrenz bestätigt (antizyklische Beziehung). In den USA und Japan dominiert eine prozyklische Beziehung zwischen Bildungs- und Wirtschaftssystem (Humankapital-Theorie). Zeitreihen im Downloadsystem HISTAT (Thema: Bildung): - Einschreibungsquoten jeweils für Deutschland, Italien und Frankreich- Anzahl der Diplome nach 4-jähriger Regelstudienzeit in den USA- Japan: Einschreibungsquoten an den Jahrgangsgruppen 20-24 Jahre (Die Gesamtzahl der Studenten bezieht sich auf 5 Kohorten.)- Japan: Einschreibungsquoten an den Jahrgangsgruppen 20-24 Jahre (Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg bezog sich die Anzahl der Studenten auf 4 Kohorten.) Unter ´Links´ in dieser Studienbeschreibung kann HISTAT aufgerufen werden. The topic of this investigation is the expansion of universities and their structural changes during the past hundred years. The expansion of universities between 1870 and 1990 will be analyzed for five countries: Germany, Italy, France, USA and Japan. Those countries has gone through the process of industrialization and modernization in the past hundred years and experienced a strong expansion of the University system during that time. Two hypotheses which explain this growth will be tested; theory of human capital and theory of individual social status competition. The analysis is concentrated on the interaction between the educational and the economic system, especially during times of economic crisis. Topics: The matriculation rates at universities serve as an indicator for the expansion of the education system. Data on the national product, unemployment rates, expansion of public service and the growth of capital stock serve as an indicator for fluctuations of the economic system. The waves in the expansion of the education system were adjusted for demographical effects, which mean that only education rates were calculated. The education rate is defined as the proportion of a cohort that goes to university. For the European countries (Germany, Italy, France) the theory of individual social status competition is confirmed (anticyclical relation). In the USA and Japan a pro-cyclical relation between educational and economic system dominates (human capital theory). Time series in HISTAT (topic: education)- Matriculation rates for Germany, Italy and France- Number of diploma after 4 years of standard period of studies in the USA- Japan: matriculation rates within the age groups 20-24 years (after the Second World War the total number of students refers to 4 cohorts) Aggregation siehe Quellenverzeichnis (Auszug aus Windolf 1990, a.a.O., S. 238ff)