Japan 10Y Bond Yield was 1.59 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.

The statistic shows the national debt of Japan from 2019 to 2021, with projections up until 2029. The amount of Japan's national debt in 2022 amounted to about 9.16 trillion U.S. dollar. In a ranking of debt to GDP per country, Japan is thus currently ranked first.

Japan's economic power

With one of the largest gross domestic products (GDP), Japan is among the largest economies in the world. However, ever since the global financial crisis, Japan's GDP - like many others - has been slightly unstable; Japan even reported a negative GDP growth in comparison to the previous year in 2011 and in 2014. Still, it is estimated that gross domestic product in Japan will continue to thrive over the next decade. One indicator is Japan's inflation rate: Despite the aforementioned economic slumps, Japan has managed to maintain one of the lowest inflation rates in the world, and it also reduced its unemployment rate. Between 2010 and 2013, the unemployment rate in Japan decreased by approximately one percent, and it is expected to drop even lower over the next years.

Recently, Japan has been reporting a trade deficit, meaning the value of its imports exceeds the value of its exports. Most of these imports have come from China and the United States. The trade deficit is one of the causes for in an increase of the national debt. It is estimated that the national debt in relation to the GDP will increase further until 2020.

The statistic shows Japan's national debt from 2019 to 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP), with projections up until 2029. In 2022, the national debt of Japan amounted to about 256.3 percent of the gross domestic product. An eye on Japan’s national debt Japan’s national debt ranks first among countries with the highest debt levels in the world, far surpassing the debt levels of Greece - which ranks number two - whose financial crisis has been in the spotlight recently. Italy is third, followed by Jamaica, Lebanon and Enritrea. Currently, Japan’s national debt amounts more than a thousand trillion yen and the country’s debt is predicted to keep rising for the foreseeable future, albeit only slightly. Japan’s national debt is not without consequence for the global economy, because the country claims the fourth-largest share in global gross domestic product. Therefore, the effects on the global economy would and could have a much greater global impact than that of a country such as Greece - considering its share of the global economy adjusted for purchase power parity was less than 0.29 percent in 2011. The debt levels of China, the United States and India should also be watched closely as they together make up the largest share of global GDP. At the moment, Japan’s inflation rate is among the lowest in the world, but as Japan attempts to reduce its national debt, this could change.

In 2023, Japan had an average inflation rate estimated at 3.21 percent, marking the highest rate of inflation in Japan in almost a decade. However, this figure was still very low compared to most other major economies, such as Japan's fellow G7 members, four of which had inflation rates around six or seven percent in 2023 due to the global inflation crisis. Why is Japan's inflation rate lower? There are a number of contributing factors to Japan's relatively low inflation rate, even during economic crises. Japan eased its Covid restrictions more slowly than most other major economies, this prevented post-pandemic consumer spending that may have driven inflation through supply chain issues caused by higher demand. As the majority of Japan's food and energy comes from overseas, and has done so for decades, the government has mechanisms in place to prevent energy and wheat prices from rising too quickly. Because of this, Japan was able to shield its private sector from many of the negative knock on effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which had a significant impact on both sectors globally. Persistent deflation and national debt An additional factor that has eased the impact of inflation on Japan's economy is the fact that it experienced deflation before the pandemic. Deflation has been a persistent problem in Japan since the asset price bubble burst in 1992, and has been symptomatic of Japan's staggering national debt thereafter. For almost 30 years, a combination of quantitative easing, low interest rates (below 0.5 percent since 1995, and at -0.1% since 2016), and a lack of spending due to low wages and an aging population have combined to give Japan the highest national debt in the world in absolute terms, and second-highest debt in relation to its GDP, after Venezuela. Despite this soaring debt, Japan remains the fourth-largest economy in the world, behind the U.S., China, and Germany.

The graph shows national debt in China related to gross domestic product until 2023, with forecasts to 2029. In 2023, gross national debt ranged at around 84 percent of the national gross domestic product.

The debt-to-GDP ratio

In economics, the ratio between a country's government debt and its gross domestic product (GDP) is generally defined as the debt-to-GDP ratio. It is a useful indicator for investors to measure a country's ability to fulfill future payments on its debts. A low debt-to-GDP ratio also suggests that an economy produces and sells a sufficient amount of goods and services to pay back those debts. Among the important industrial and emerging countries, Japan displayed one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios. In 2023, the estimated national debt of Japan amounted to about 255 percent of its GDP, up from around 180 percent in 2004. One reason behind Japan's high debt load lies in its low annual GDP growth rate.

Development in China

China's national debt related to GDP grew slowly but steadily from around 23 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2012, only disrupted by the global financial crisis in 2008. In recent years, China increased credit financing to spur economic growth, resulting in higher levels of debt. China's real estate crisis and a difficult global economic environment require further stimulating measures by the government and will predictably lead to even higher debt growth in the years ahead.

The exchange rate history of the euro against the Japanese yen suggests that by 2022 one euro could buy as many yens as in early 2014. Since the introduction in 1999, the exchange rate against the Japanese currency fluctuated: before the financial crisis in 2008, one euro could buy almost 170 yens. In the summer of 2012, this had decreased to less than 100 yens. The exchange rate witnessed a steady growth amidst the coronavirus pandemic 2020, however. By March 21, 2025, the rate of a Japanese yen was 161.32 per euro.