Updates

• Notice of data discontinuation: Since the start of the pandemic, AP has reported case and death counts from data provided by Johns Hopkins University. Johns Hopkins University has announced that they will stop their daily data collection efforts after March 10. As Johns Hopkins stops providing data, the AP will also stop collecting daily numbers for COVID cases and deaths. The HHS and CDC now collect and visualize key metrics for the pandemic. AP advises using those resources when reporting on the pandemic going forward.

  • CDC Weekly case and death counts (national and state level)
  • CDC County level cases and deaths
  • HHS New hospital admissions
  • CDC NowCast COVID variant proportions (national and regional level)

• April 9, 2020

  • The population estimate data for New York County, NY has been updated to include all five New York City counties (Kings County, Queens County, Bronx County, Richmond County and New York County). This has been done to match the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 data, which aggregates counts for the five New York City counties to New York County.

• April 20, 2020

  • Johns Hopkins death totals in the US now include confirmed and probable deaths in accordance with CDC guidelines as of April 14. One significant result of this change was an increase of more than 3,700 deaths in the New York City count. This change will likely result in increases for death counts elsewhere as well. The AP does not alter the Johns Hopkins source data, so probable deaths are included in this dataset as well.

• April 29, 2020

  • The AP is now providing timeseries data for counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The raw counts are provided here unaltered, along with a population column with Census ACS-5 estimates and calculated daily case and death rates per 100,000 people. Please read the updated caveats section for more information.

• September 1st, 2020

  • Johns Hopkins is now providing counts for the five New York City counties individually.

• February 12, 2021

  • The Ohio Department of Health recently announced that as many as 4,000 COVID-19 deaths may have been underreported through the state’s reporting system, and that the "daily reported death counts will be high for a two to three-day period."
  • Because deaths data will be anomalous for consecutive days, we have chosen to freeze Ohio's rolling average for daily deaths at the last valid measure until Johns Hopkins is able to back-distribute the data. The raw daily death counts, as reported by Johns Hopkins and including the backlogged death data, will still be present in the new_deaths column.

• February 16, 2021

  - Johns Hopkins has reconciled Ohio's historical deaths data with the state.

  Overview

The AP is using data collected by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering as our source for outbreak caseloads and death counts for the United States and globally.

The Hopkins data is available at the county level in the United States. The AP has paired this data with population figures and county rural/urban designations, and has calculated caseload and death rates per 100,000 people. Be aware that caseloads may reflect the availability of tests -- and the ability to turn around test results quickly -- rather than actual disease spread or true infection rates.

This data is from the Hopkins dashboard that is updated regularly throughout the day. Like all organizations dealing with data, Hopkins is constantly refining and cleaning up their feed, so there may be brief moments where data does not appear correctly. At this link, you’ll find the Hopkins daily data reports, and a clean version of their feed.

The AP is updating this dataset hourly at 45 minutes past the hour.

To learn more about AP's data journalism capabilities for publishers, corporations and financial institutions, go here or email kromano@ap.org.

Queries

Use AP's queries to filter the data or to join to other datasets we've made available to help cover the coronavirus pandemic

• Filter cases by state here

• Rank states by their status as current hotspots. Calculates the 7-day rolling average of new cases per capita in each state: https://data.world/associatedpress/johns-hopkins-coronavirus-case-tracker/workspace/query?queryid=481e82a4-1b2f-41c2-9ea1-d91aa4b3b1ac

• Find recent hotspots within your state by running a query to calculate the 7-day rolling average of new cases by capita in each county: https://data.world/associatedpress/johns-hopkins-coronavirus-case-tracker/workspace/query?queryid=b566f1db-3231-40fe-8099-311909b7b687&showTemplatePreview=true

• Join county-level case data to an earlier dataset released by AP on local hospital capacity here. To find out more about the hospital capacity dataset, see the full details.

• Pull the 100 counties with the highest per-capita confirmed cases here

• Rank all the counties by the highest per-capita rate of new cases in the past 7 days here. Be aware that because this ranks per-capita caseloads, very small counties may rise to the very top, so take into account raw caseload figures as well.

Interactive

The AP has designed an interactive map to track COVID-19 cases reported by Johns Hopkins.

@(https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nRyaf/15/)

Interactive Embed Code

<iframe title="USA counties (2018) choropleth map Mapping COVID-19 cases by county" aria-describedby="" id="datawrapper-chart-nRyaf" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nRyaf/10/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">(function() {'use strict';window.addEventListener('message', function(event) {if (typeof event.data['datawrapper-height'] !== 'undefined') {for (var chartId in event.data['datawrapper-height']) {var iframe = document.getElementById('datawrapper-chart-' + chartId) || document.querySelector("iframe[src*='" + chartId + "']");if (!iframe) {continue;}iframe.style.height = event.data['datawrapper-height'][chartId] + 'px';}}});})();</script>

Caveats

• This data represents the number of cases and deaths reported by each state and has been collected by Johns Hopkins from a number of sources cited on their website.
• In some cases, deaths or cases of people who've crossed state lines -- either to receive treatment or because they became sick and couldn't return home while traveling -- are reported in a state they aren't currently in, because of state reporting rules.
• In some states, there are a number of cases not assigned to a specific county -- for those cases, the county name is "unassigned to a single county"
• This data should be credited to Johns Hopkins University's COVID-19 tracking project. The AP is simply making it available here for ease of use for reporters and members.
• Caseloads may reflect the availability of tests -- and the ability to turn around test results quickly -- rather than actual disease spread or true infection rates.
• Population estimates at the county level are drawn from 2014-18 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey.
• The Urban/Rural classification scheme is from the Center for Disease Control and Preventions's National Center for Health Statistics. It puts each county into one of six categories -- from Large Central Metro to Non-Core -- according to population and other characteristics. More details about the classifications can be found here.

Johns Hopkins timeseries data - Johns Hopkins pulls data regularly to update their dashboard. Once a day, around 8pm EDT, Johns Hopkins adds the counts for all areas they cover to the timeseries file. These counts are snapshots of the latest cumulative counts provided by the source on that day. This can lead to inconsistencies if a source updates their historical data for accuracy, either increasing or decreasing the latest cumulative count. - Johns Hopkins periodically edits their historical timeseries data for accuracy. They provide a file documenting all errors in their timeseries files that they have identified and fixed here

Attribution

This data should be credited to Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracking project

2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Visual Dashboard and Map:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

• Confirmed Cases by Country/Region/Sovereignty
• Confirmed Cases by Province/State/Dependency
• Deaths
• Recovered

Downloadable data:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

Additional Information about the Visual Dashboard:
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit the following sources:Global: World Health Organization (WHO)U.S.: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.This feature layer contains the most up-to-date COVID-19 cases and latest trend plot. It covers China, Canada, Australia (at province/state level), and the rest of the world (at country level, represented by either the country centroids or their capitals)and the US at county-level. Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, 1point3acres, Worldometers.info, BNO, state and national government health departments, and local media reports. . The China data is automatically updating at least once per hour, and non-China data is updating hourly. This layer is created and maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at the Johns Hopkins University. This feature layer is supported by Esri Living Atlas team and JHU Data Services. This layer is opened to the public and free to share. Contact us.

This dataset provides information on the total number of COVID-19 cases and deaths as well as incident rates per 100,000 persons for each region in the United States. Based off of the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Dashboard.Last Updated: November 21, 2022

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.The maps in this series depict the current trends of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States at the level of counties or territories. Includes Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, U.S. Virgin Islands. These maps are updated daily.

Context

The United States have recently become the country with the most reported cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). This dataset contains daily updated number of reported cases & deaths in the US on the state and county level, as provided by the Johns Hopkins University. In addition, I provide matching demographic information for US counties.

Content

The dataset consists of two main csv files: covid_us_county.csv and us_county.csv. See the column descriptions below for more detailed information. In addition, I've added US county shape files for geospatial plots: us_county.shp/dbf/prj/shx.

• covid_us_county.csv: COVID-19 cases and deaths which will be updated daily. The data is provided by the Johns Hopkins University through their excellent github repo. I combined the separate "confirmed cases" and "deaths" files into a single table, removed a few (I think to be) redundant geo identifier columns, and reshaped the data into long format with a single date column. The earliest recorded cases are from 2020-01-22.

• us_counties.csv: Demographic information on the US county level based on the (most recent) 2014-18 release of the Amercian Community Survey. Derived via the great tidycensus package.

Column Description

COVID-19 dataset covid_us_county.csv:

• fips: County code in numeric format (i.e. no leading zeros). A small number of cases have NA values here, but can still be used for state-wise aggregation. Currently, this only affect the states of Massachusetts and Missouri.

• county: Name of the US county. This is NA for the (aggregated counts of the) territories of American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands.

• state: Name of US state or territory.

• state_code: Two letter abbreviation of US state (e.g. "CA" for "California"). This feature has NA values for the territories listed above.

• lat and long: coordinates of the county or territory.

• date: Reporting date.

• cases & deaths: Cumulative numbers for cases & deaths.

Demographic dataset us_counties.csv:

• fips, county, state, state_code: same as above. The county names are slightly different, but mostly the difference is that this dataset has the word "County" added. I recommend to join on fips.

• male & female: Population numbers for male and female.

• population: Total population for the county. Provided as convenience feature; is always the sum of male + female.

• female_percentage: Another convenience feature: female / population in percent.

• median_age: Overall median age for the county.

Acknowledgements

Data provided for educational and academic research purposes by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE).

Licence

The github repo states that:

This GitHub repo and its contents herein, including all data, mapping, and analysis, copyright 2020 Johns Hopkins University, all rights reserved, is provided to the public strictly for educational and academic research purposes. The Website relies upon publicly available data from multiple sources, that do not always agree. The Johns Hopkins University hereby disclaims any and all representations and warranties with respect to the Website, including accuracy, fitness for use, and merchantability. Reliance on the Website for medical guidance or use of the Website in commerce is strictly prohibited.

Version history

• In version 1, a small number of cases had values of `county == "Unassigned". Those have been superseded.
• Version 5: added US county shape files

The model forecasts the number of future confirmed cases and deaths as reported by the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center Dashboard (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). The model forecasts are probabilitics and are done for any United States of America state that has at least one confirmed COVID-19 case/death and any country with at least 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 20 deaths. They updated 2 times a week until 2021-09-27, and the output of the forecasts and incidences are available in visualization on the website and in CSV format at country level and at state level for the US. The code of the model is not publicly available.

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.This map is updated weekly and currently shows data through March 5, 2023, which will be the final update of this map.Note: Nebraska stopped reporting county level-results on 5/25/2021 and re-started on 9/26/21 with a lump-sum representing the previous four months - this impacted the weekly sum of cases fields.It shows COVID-19 Trend for the most recent Monday with a colored dot for each county. The larger the dot, the longer the county has had this trend. Includes Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, U.S. Virgin Islands.The intent of this map is to give more context than just the current day of new data because daily data for COVID-19 cases is volatile and can be unreliable on the day it is first reported. Weekly summaries in the counts of new cases smooth out this volatility. Click or tap on a county to see a history of trend changes and a weekly graph of new cases going back to February 8, 2020. This map is updated every Monday* based on data through the previous Sunday. See also this version of the map for another perspective.COVID-19 Trends show how each county is doing and are updated daily. We base the trend assignment on the number of new cases in the past two weeks and the number of active cases per 100,000 people. To learn the details for how trends are assigned, see the full methodology. There are five trends:Emergent - New cases for the first time or in counties that have had zero new cases for 60 or more days.Spreading - Low to moderate rates of new cases each day. Likely controlled by local policies and individuals taking measures such as wearing masks and curtailing unnecessary activities.Epidemic - Accelerating and uncontrolled rates of new cases.Controlled - Very low rates of new cases.End Stage - One or fewer new cases every 5 days in larger populations and fewer in rural areas.*Starting 8/22/2021 we began updating on Mondays instead of Tuesdays as a result of optimizing the scripts that produce the weekly analysis. For more information about COVID-19 trends, see the full methodology. Data Source: Johns Hopkins University CSSE US Cases by County dashboard and USAFacts for Utah County level Data.

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.Trends represent the day-to-day rate of new cases with a focus on the most recent 10 to 14 days. Includes Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and U.S. Virgin Islands. Daily new case counts are volatile for many reasons and sometimes the trends reflect that volatility. Thus, we decided to include longer-term summaries here. County Trends as of 9 Mar 20230 (-0) in Emergent1135 (+51) in Spreading1664 (-63) in Epidemic230 (+10) in Controlled110 (+2) in End StageNotes: Many states now only report once per week, and FL only once every two weeks. On 3/7/2022 we adjusted the formula for active cases to reflect the Omicron Variant which is documented to cause lower rates of serious and severe illness. To produce these trends we analyze daily updates from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.For more information about COVID-19 trends, see our country level trends story map and the full methodology.Data Source: Johns Hopkins University CSSE US Cases by County dashboard and USAFacts for Utah County level Data.Feature layer generated from running the Join Features solution that is the basis for daily updates for the U.S. County COVID-19 Tends Story Map.

COVID cases and deaths for LA County and California State. Updated daily.

Data source: Johns Hopkins University (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map),

Johns Hopkins GitHub (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/cssecovid19data/cssecovid19timeseries/timeseriescovid19confirmed_US.csv).

Code available: https://github.com/CityOfLosAngeles/covid19-indicators.

Splitgraph serves as an HTTP API that lets you run SQL queries directly on this data to power Web applications. For example:

See the Splitgraph documentation for more information.

This feature layer contains the most up-to-date COVID-19 cases for the US. Data is pulled from the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, the Red Cross, the Census American Community Survey, and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, and aggregated at the US county level.

This is the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE). Also, Supported by ESRI Living Atlas Team and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab (JHU APL).

Visual Dashboard (desktop): https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Visual Dashboard (mobile): http://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

Lancet Article: An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time

Provided by Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE): https://systems.jhu.edu/

Data Sources: - World Health Organization (WHO): https://www.who.int/ - DXY.cn. Pneumonia. 2020. http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia. - BNO News: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ - National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NHC): http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml - China CDC (CCDC): http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm - Hong Kong Department of Health: https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/features/102465.html - Macau Government: https://www.ssm.gov.mo/portal/ - Taiwan CDC: https://sites.google.com/cdc.gov.tw/2019ncov/taiwan?authuser=0 - US CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html - Government of Canada: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus.html - Australia Government Department of Health: https://www.health.gov.au/news/coronavirus-update-at-a-glance - European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC): https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases - Ministry of Health Singapore (MOH): https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19 - Italy Ministry of Health: http://www.salute.gov.it/nuovocoronavirus - 1Point3Arces: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en - WorldoMeters: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Additional Information about the Visual Dashboard: https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source

Geostatistics analyzes and predicts the values associated with spatial or spatial-temporal phenomena. It incorporates the spatial (and in some cases temporal) coordinates of the data within the analyses. It is a practical means of describing spatial patterns and interpolating values for locations where samples were not taken (and measures the uncertainty of those values, which is critical to informed decision making). This archive contains results of geostatistical analysis of COVID-19 case counts for all available US counties. Test results were obtained with ArcGIS Pro (ESRI). Sources are state health departments, which are scraped and aggregated by the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and then pre-processed by MappingSupport.com.

This update of the Zenodo dataset (version 6) consists of three compressed archives containing geostatistical analyses of SARS-CoV-2 testing data. This dataset utilizes many of the geostatistical techniques used in previous versions of this Zenodo archive, but has been significantly expanded to include analyses of up-to-date U.S. COVID-19 case data (from March 24th to September 8th, 2020):

Archive #1: “1.Geostat. Space-Time analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in the US (Mar24-Sept6).zip” – results of a geostatistical analysis of COVID-19 cases incorporating spatially-weighted hotspots that are conserved over one-week timespans. Results are reported starting from when U.S. COVID-19 case data first became available (March 24th, 2020) for 25 consecutive 1-week intervals (March 24th through to September 6th, 2020). Hotspots, where found, are reported in each individual state, rather than the entire continental United States.

Archive #2: "2.Geostat. Spatial analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in the US (Mar24-Sept8).zip" – the results from geostatistical spatial analyses only of corrected COVID-19 case data for the continental United States, spanning the period from March 24th through September 8th, 2020. The geostatistical techniques utilized in this archive includes ‘Hot Spot’ analysis and ‘Cluster and Outlier’ analysis.

Archive #3: "3.Kriging and Densification of SARS-CoV-2 in LA and MA.zip" – this dataset provides preliminary kriging and densification analysis of COVID-19 case data for certain dates within the U.S. states of Louisiana and Massachusetts.

These archives consist of map files (as both static images and as animations) and data files (including text files which contain the underlying data of said map files [where applicable]) which were generated when performing the following Geostatistical analyses: Hot Spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) [‘Archive #1’: consecutive weeklong Space-Time Hot Spot analysis; ‘Archive #2’: daily Hot Spot Analysis], Cluster and Outlier analysis (Anselin Local Moran's I) [‘Archive #2’], Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I) [‘Archive #2’], and point-to-point comparisons with Kriging and Densification analysis [‘Archive #3’].

The Word document provided ("Description-of-Archive.Updated-Geostatistical-Analysis-of-SARS-CoV-2 (version 6).docx") details the contents of each file and folder within these three archives and gives general interpretations of these results.

Based on a comparison of coronavirus deaths in 210 countries relative to their population, Peru had the most losses to COVID-19 up until July 13, 2022. As of the same date, the virus had infected over 557.8 million people worldwide, and the number of deaths had totaled more than 6.3 million. Note, however, that COVID-19 test rates can vary per country. Additionally, big differences show up between countries when combining the number of deaths against confirmed COVID-19 cases. The source seemingly does not differentiate between "the Wuhan strain" (2019-nCOV) of COVID-19, "the Kent mutation" (B.1.1.7) that appeared in the UK in late 2020, the 2021 Delta variant (B.1.617.2) from India or the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) from South Africa.

The difficulties of death figures

This table aims to provide a complete picture on the topic, but it very much relies on data that has become more difficult to compare. As the coronavirus pandemic developed across the world, countries already used different methods to count fatalities, and they sometimes changed them during the course of the pandemic. On April 16, for example, the Chinese city of Wuhan added a 50 percent increase in their death figures to account for community deaths. These deaths occurred outside of hospitals and went unaccounted for so far. The state of New York did something similar two days before, revising their figures with 3,700 new deaths as they started to include “assumed” coronavirus victims. The United Kingdom started counting deaths in care homes and private households on April 29, adjusting their number with about 5,000 new deaths (which were corrected lowered again by the same amount on August 18). This makes an already difficult comparison even more difficult. Belgium, for example, counts suspected coronavirus deaths in their figures, whereas other countries have not done that (yet). This means two things. First, it could have a big impact on both current as well as future figures. On April 16 already, UK health experts stated that if their numbers were corrected for community deaths like in Wuhan, the UK number would change from 205 to “above 300”. This is exactly what happened two weeks later. Second, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly which countries already have “revised” numbers (like Belgium, Wuhan or New York) and which ones do not. One work-around could be to look at (freely accessible) timelines that track the reported daily increase of deaths in certain countries. Several of these are available on our platform, such as for Belgium, Italy and Sweden. A sudden large increase might be an indicator that the domestic sources changed their methodology.

Where are these numbers coming from?

The numbers shown here were collected by Johns Hopkins University, a source that manually checks the data with domestic health authorities. For the majority of countries, this is from national authorities. In some cases, like China, the United States, Canada or Australia, city reports or other various state authorities were consulted. In this statistic, these separately reported numbers were put together. For more information or other freely accessible content, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Description: The COVID-19 dataset used for this EDA project encompasses comprehensive data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries worldwide. It includes information gathered from authoritative sources such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and national health agencies. The dataset covers global, regional, and national levels, providing a holistic view of the pandemic's impact.

Purpose: This dataset is instrumental in understanding the multifaceted impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through data exploration. It aligns perfectly with the objectives of the EDA project, aiming to unveil insights, patterns, and trends related to COVID-19. Here are the key objectives: 1. Data Collection and Cleaning: • Gather reliable COVID-19 datasets from authoritative sources (such as WHO, CDC, or national health agencies). • Clean and preprocess the data to ensure accuracy and consistency. 2. Descriptive Statistics: • Summarize key statistics: total cases, recoveries, deaths, and testing rates. • Visualize temporal trends using line charts, bar plots, and heat maps. 3. Geospatial Analysis: • Map COVID-19 cases across countries, regions, or cities. • Identify hotspots and variations in infection rates. 4. Demographic Insights: • Explore how age, gender, and pre-existing conditions impact vulnerability. • Investigate disparities in infection rates among different populations. 5. Healthcare System Impact: • Analyze hospitalization rates, ICU occupancy, and healthcare resource allocation. • Assess the strain on medical facilities. 6. Economic and Social Effects: • Investigate the relationship between lockdown measures, economic indicators, and infection rates. • Explore behavioral changes (e.g., mobility patterns, remote work) during the pandemic. 7. Predictive Modeling (Optional): • If data permits, build simple predictive models (e.g., time series forecasting) to estimate future cases.

Data Sources: The primary sources of the COVID-19 dataset include the Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Data Repository, Google Health’s COVID-19 Open Data, and the U.S. Economic Development Administration (EDA). These sources provide reliable and up-to-date information on COVID-19 cases, deaths, testing rates, and other relevant variables. Additionally, GitHub repositories and platforms like Medium host supplementary datasets and analyses, enriching the available data resources.

Data Format: The dataset is available in various formats, such as CSV and JSON, facilitating easy access and analysis. Before conducting the EDA, the data underwent preprocessing steps to ensure accuracy and consistency. Data cleaning procedures were performed to address missing values, inconsistencies, and outliers, enhancing the quality and reliability of the dataset.

License: The COVID-19 dataset may be subject to specific usage licenses or restrictions imposed by the original data sources. Proper attribution is essential to acknowledge the contributions of the WHO, CDC, national health agencies, and other entities providing the data. Users should adhere to any licensing terms and usage guidelines associated with the dataset.

Attribution: We acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the World Health Organization (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), national health agencies, and other authoritative sources in compiling and disseminating the COVID-19 data used for this EDA project. Their efforts in collecting, curating, and sharing data have been instrumental in advancing our understanding of the pandemic and guiding public health responses globally.

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit the following sources:Global: World Health Organization (WHO)U.S.: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.This feature layer contains the most up-to-date COVID-19 cases and the latest trend plot. It covers the US (county or state level), China, Canada, Australia (province/state level), and the rest of the world (country/region level, represented by either the country centroids or their capitals). Data sources are WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, 1point3acres, Worldometers.info, BNO, the COVID Tracking Project (testing and hospitalizations), state and national government health departments, and local media reports. This layer is created and maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at the Johns Hopkins University. This feature layer is supported by Esri Living Atlas team, JHU APL and JHU Data Services. This layer is opened to the public and free to share. Contact us.

This feature layer contains the most up-to-date COVID-19 cases for the US, Canada. Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, 1point3acres, Worldometers.info, BNO, state and national government health departments, and local media reports. The China data is automatically updating at least once per hour, and non China data is updating manually. This layer is created and maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at the Johns Hopkins University. This feature layer is supported by Esri Living Atlas team and JHU Data Services. This layer is opened to the public and free to share. Contact Johns Hopkins.IMPORTANT NOTICE: 1. Fields for Active Cases and Recovered Cases are set to 0 in all locations. John Hopkins has not found a reliable source for this information at the county level but will continue to look and carry the fields.2. Fields for Incident Rate and People Tested are placeholders for when this becomes available at the county level.3. In some instances, cases have not been assigned a location at the county scale. those are still assigned a state but are listed as unassigned and given a Lat Long of 0,0.

COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Correction on 6/1/2020Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Reasons for undertaking this work:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-30 days + 5% from past 31-56 days - total deaths.We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source used as basis:Stephen A. Lauer, MS, PhD *; Kyra H. Grantz, BA *; Qifang Bi, MHS; Forrest K. Jones, MPH; Qulu Zheng, MHS; Hannah R. Meredith, PhD; Andrew S. Azman, PhD; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD; Justin Lessler, PhD. 2020. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504.New Cases per Day (NCD) = Measures the daily spread of COVID-19. This is the basis for all rates. Back-casting revisions: In the Johns Hopkins’ data, the structure is to provide the cumulative number of cases per day, which presumes an ever-increasing sequence of numbers, e.g., 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,7, etc. However, revisions do occur and would look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,6. To accommodate this, we revised the lists to eliminate decreases, which make this list look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,6,6,6.Reporting Interval: In the early weeks, Johns Hopkins' data provided reporting every day regardless of change. In late April, this changed allowing for days to be skipped if no new data was available. The day was still included, but the value of total cases was set to Null. The processing therefore was updated to include tracking of the spacing between intervals with valid values.100 News Cases in a day as a spike threshold: Empirically, this is based on COVID-19’s rate of spread, or r0 of ~2.5, which indicates each case will infect between two and three other people. There is a point at which each administrative area’s capacity will not have the resources to trace and account for all contacts of each patient. Thus, this is an indicator of uncontrolled or epidemic trend. Spiking activity in combination with the rate of new cases is the basis for determining whether an area has a spreading or epidemic trend (see below). Source used as basis:World Health Organization (WHO). 16-24 Feb 2020. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Obtained online.Mean of Recent Tail of NCD = Empirical, and a COVID-19-specific basis for establishing a recent trend. The recent mean of NCD is taken from the most recent fourteen days. A minimum of 21 days of cases is required for analysis but cannot be considered reliable. Thus, a preference of 42 days of cases ensures much higher reliability. This analysis is not explanatory and thus, merely represents a likely trend. The tail is analyzed for the following:Most recent 2 days: In terms of likelihood, this does not mean much, but can indicate a reason for hope and a basis to share positive change that is not yet a trend. There are two worthwhile indicators:Last 2 days count of new cases is less than any in either the past five or 14 days. Past 2 days has only one or fewer new cases – this is an extremely positive outcome if the rate of testing has continued at the same rate as the previous 5 days or 14 days. Most recent 5 days: In terms of likelihood, this is more meaningful, as it does represent at short-term trend. There are five worthwhile indicators:Past five days is greater than past 2 days and past 14 days indicates the potential of the past 2 days being an aberration. Past five days is greater than past 14 days and less than past 2 days indicates slight positive trend, but likely still within peak trend time frame.Past five days is less than the past 14 days. This means a downward trend. This would be an

Stamp Out COVID-19An apple a day keeps the doctor away.Linda Angulo LopezDecember 3, 2020https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-where-do-new-viruses-come-from-136105SNAP Participation Rates, was explored and analysed on ArcGIS Pro, the results of which can help decision makers set up further SNAP-D initiatives.In the USA foods are stored in every State and U.S. territory and may be used by state agencies or local disaster relief organizations to provide food to shelters or people who are in need.US Food Stamp Program has been ExtendedThe Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, SNAP, is a State Organized Food Stamp Program in the USA and was put in place to help individuals and families during this exceptional time. State agencies may request to operate a Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP) .D-SNAP Interactive DashboardAlmost all States have set up Food Relief Programs, in response to COVID-19.Scroll Down to Learn more about the SNAP Participation Analysis & ResultsSNAP Participation AnalysisInitial results of yearly participation rates to geography show statistically significant trends, to get acquainted with the results, explore the following 3D Time Cube Map:Visualize A Space Time Cube in 3Dhttps://arcg.is/1q8LLPnetCDF ResultsWORKFLOW: a space-time cube was generated as a netCDF structure with the ArcGIS Pro Space-Time Mining Tool : Create a Space Time Cube from Defined Locations, other tools were then used to incorporate the spatial and temporal aspects of the SNAP County Participation Rate Feature to reveal and render statistically significant trends about Nutrition Assistance in the USA.Hot Spot Analysis Explore the results in 2D or 3D.2D Hot Spotshttps://arcg.is/1Pu5WH02D Hot Spot ResultsWORKFLOW: Hot Spot Analysis, with the Hot Spot Analysis Tool shows that there are various trends across the USA for instance the Southeastern States have a mixture of consecutive, intensifying, and oscillating hot spots.3D Hot Spotshttps://arcg.is/1b41T43D Hot Spot ResultsThese trends over time are expanded in the above 3D Map, by inspecting the stacked columns you can see the trends over time which give result to the overall Hot Spot Results.Not all counties have significant trends, symbolized as Never Significant in the Space Time Cubes.Space-Time Pattern Mining AnalysisThe North-central areas of the USA, have mostly diminishing cold spots.2D Space-Time Mininghttps://arcg.is/1PKPj02D Space Time Mining ResultsWORKFLOW: Analysis, with the Emerging Hot Spot Analysis Tool shows that there are various trends across the USA for instance the South-Eastern States have a mixture of consecutive, intensifying, and oscillating hot spots.Results ShowThe USA has counties with persistent malnourished populations, they depend on Food Aide.3D Space-Time Mininghttps://arcg.is/01fTWf3D Space Time Mining ResultsIn addition to obvious planning for consistent Hot-Hot Spot Areas, areas oscillating Hot-Cold and/or Cold-Hot Spots can be identified for further analysis to mitigate the upward trend in food insecurity in the USA, since 2009 which has become even worse since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.After Notes:(i) The Johns Hopkins University has an Interactive Dashboard of the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV)(ii) Since March 2020 in a Response to COVID-19, SNAP has had to extend its benefits to help people in need. The Food Relief is coordinated within States and by local and voluntary organizations to provide nutrition assistance to those most affected by a disaster or emergency.Visit SNAPs Interactive DashboardFood Relief has been extended, reach out to your state SNAP office, if you are in need.(iii) Follow these Steps to build an ArcGIS Pro StoryMap:Step 1: [Get Data][Open An ArcGIS Pro Project][Run a Hot Spot Analysis][Review analysis parameters][Interpret the results][Run an Outlier Analysis][Interpret the results]Step 2: [Open the Space-Time Pattern Mining 2 Map][Create a space-time cube][Visualize a space-time cube in 2D][Visualize a space-time cube in 3D][Run a Local Outlier Analysis][Visualize a Local Outlier Analysis in 3DStep 3: [Communicate Analysis][Identify your Audience & Takeaways][Create an Outline][Find Images][Prepare Maps & Scenes][Create a New Story][Add Story Elements][Add Maps & Scenes] [Review the Story][Publish & Share]A submission for the Esri MOOCSpatial Data Science: The New Frontier in AnalyticsLinda Angulo LopezLauren Bennett . Shannon Kalisky . Flora Vale . Alberto Nieto . Atma Mani . Kevin Johnston . Orhun Aydin . Ankita Bakshi . Vinay Viswambharan . Jennifer Bell & Nick Giner