United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low was 2.60% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low reached a record high of 3.50 in June of 2015 and a record low of 2.30 in June of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to -0.10 points in June from -0.16 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median was 4.20% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median reached a record high of 5.00 in June of 2015 and a record low of 4.00 in March of 2021. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by July 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *********, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High was 3.60% in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to two percent by June 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High was 3.90% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High reached a record high of 4.30 in June of 2015 and a record low of 3.00 in December of 2017. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

Inflation Nowcasting Quarterly is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) from Jan 1959 to Jun 2025 about chained, core, energy, headline figure, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (PCEPI) from Jan 1959 to Jun 2025 about chained, headline figure, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Content

Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month LIBOR based on US dollars (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USD3MTD156N) and 3-Month Treasury Bill (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTB3). The series is lagged by one week because the LIBOR series is lagged by one week due to an agreement with the source. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1986-01-02

• Observation End : 2019-12-04

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Sidharth Bhatia on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, Low was 4.10000 Fourth Qtr., % in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, Low reached a record high of 7.00000 in January of 2020 and a record low of 3.50000 in January of 2019. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP) from Jan 1939 to Jul 2025 about headline figure, establishment survey, employment, manufacturing, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN) from Q1 1966 to Q1 2025 about public, debt, federal, government, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Monetary Base: Total (BOGMBASE) from Jan 1959 to Jun 2025 about monetary base and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB Rate) (IORB) from 2021-07-29 to 2025-08-18 about reserves, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low was 2.90% in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Aug 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.