In 2023, it was estimated that over 161 million Americans were in some form of employment, while 3.64 percent of the total workforce was unemployed. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s, although these figures are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond. 1980s-2010s Since the 1980s, the total United States labor force has generally risen as the population has grown, however, the annual average unemployment rate has fluctuated significantly, usually increasing in times of crisis, before falling more slowly during periods of recovery and economic stability. For example, unemployment peaked at 9.7 percent during the early 1980s recession, which was largely caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian Revolution on global oil prices and inflation. Other notable spikes came during the early 1990s; again, largely due to inflation caused by another oil shock, and during the early 2000s recession. The Great Recession then saw the U.S. unemployment rate soar to 9.6 percent, following the collapse of the U.S. housing market and its impact on the banking sector, and it was not until 2016 that unemployment returned to pre-recession levels. 2020s 2019 had marked a decade-long low in unemployment, before the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic saw the sharpest year-on-year increase in unemployment since the Great Depression, and the total number of workers fell by almost 10 million people. Despite the continuation of the pandemic in the years that followed, alongside the associated supply-chain issues and onset of the inflation crisis, unemployment reached just 3.67 percent in 2022 - current projections are for this figure to rise in 2023 and the years that follow, although these forecasts are subject to change if recent years are anything to go by.

In 2024, the employment rate in China decreased to around 62.4 percent, from 62.8 percent in the previous year. China is the world’s most populous country and its rapid economic development over the past decades has profited greatly from its large labor market. While the overall working conditions for the Chinese people are improving, the actual size of the working-age population in China has been shrinking steadily in recent years. This is mainly due to a low birth rate in the country. Economic slowdown – impact on labor market After decades of rapid development, the world’s second largest economy now seems to have difficulties to boost its economy further. The GDP growth rate indicated a declining trend over the last decade and the number of employed people decreased for the first time since decades in 2015. Under the influence of the global economic downturn, the coronavirus pandemic, and the US-China tensions, many Chinese enterprises are having tough times, which leads to a recession in China’s labor market. Chances for better employment situation The long-lasting Sino-U.S. trade war has caused China great loss on its international trade sector, which has been driving China’s economic growth for decades. However, there is also a lot China could improve. First, the potential of domestic demands could be further developed and satisfied with high-quality products. Second, it’s a good timing to eliminate backward industries with low value added, and the high-tech and environment-friendly industries should be further promoted. In addition, China’s market could be more open to services, especially in the financial sector and IT services, to attract more foreign investors. Highly skilled talents should be better valued in the labor market. Efficient vocational education and further education could also help change the structure of China’s labor market.

With the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.

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This research paper builds on previous literature and documents general changes in the labor market for Native American women that occurred during the Great Recession using extracts of data from the Current Population Survey Annual Earnings file, known as the Merged Outgoing Rotation Groups (MORG). Wages, unemployment, and other labor market variables for Native American women are contrasted with those of Native American men and white women to determine the relative change in labor market inequality that occurred during the Great Recession.

Article on the impact of the recession on the labour market

Source agency: Office for National Statistics

Designation: National Statistics

Language: English

Alternative title: Labour Market and Recession

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The European labor market during the Great Recession.

ABSTRACT: This paper documents that the earnings cost of job loss is concentrated among workers who find reemployment in lower-skill occupations, and that the cost and incidence of such occupation displacement is higher for workers who lose their job during a recession. I propose a model where hiring is endogenously more selective during recessions, leading some unemployed workers to optimally search for reemployment in lower-skill jobs. The model accounts for existing estimates of the size and cyclicality of the present value cost of job loss, and the cost of entering the labor market during a recession.

Article on the labour market across the UK in the current recession

Source agency: Office for National Statistics

Designation: National Statistics

Language: English

Alternative title: The labour market across the UK in the current recession

Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirely from female employment: as women's employment rates converged towards men's over the course of the past half-century, the growth rate of female employment slowed. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? The degree to which women "crowd out" men in the labor market is a sufficient statistic for this question. We estimate the extent of crowding out across states, and find that it is small. We then develop a general equilibrium model of the female convergence process featuring home production and show that our cross-sectional crowding out estimate provides a powerful diagnostic statistic for aggregate crowding out. Our model implies that 60-75% of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female convergence.

Labour market indicators for Northern Ireland, including employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, workers' hours, jobs and Claimant Count, rolling three-monthly figures published monthly.

The statistic shows the distribution of the workforce across economic sectors in China from 2014 to 2024. In 2024, around 22.2 percent of the workforce were employed in the agricultural sector, 29 percent in the industrial sector and 48.8 percent in the service sector. In 2022, the share of agriculture had increased for the first time in more than two decades, which highlights the difficult situation of the labor market due to the pandemic and economic downturn at the end of the year. Distribution of the workforce in China In 2012, China became the largest exporting country worldwide with an export value of about two trillion U.S. dollars. China’s economic system is largely based on growth and export, with the manufacturing sector being a crucial contributor to the country’s export competitiveness. Economic development was accompanied by a steady rise of labor costs, as well as a significant slowdown in labor force growth. These changes present a serious threat to the era of China as the world’s factory. The share of workforce in agriculture also steadily decreased in China until 2021, while the agricultural gross production value displayed continuous growth, amounting to approximately 7.8 trillion yuan in 2021. Development of the service sector Since 2011, the largest share of China’s labor force has been employed in the service sector. However, compared with developed countries, such as Japan or the United States, where 73 and 79 percent of the work force were active in services in 2023 respectively, the proportion of people working in the tertiary sector in China has been relatively low. The Chinese government aims to continue economic reform by moving from an emphasis on investment to consumption, among other measures. This might lead to a stronger service economy. Meanwhile, the size of the urban middle class in China is growing steadily. A growing number of affluent middle class consumers could promote consumption and help China move towards a balanced economy.

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Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques

As variáveis do FRED-MD como preditivas e a USREC como alvo (período de 1979-2019)

Diversos Modelos: probit, logit, LDA, árvores Naive-Bayes Algumas variáveis tiveram que ser transformadas em mensais (interpolação cúbica)

128 varibles. Grupos: Output and Income Labor Market Consumption and Orders Orders and Inventories Money and Credit Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Prices Stock Market

Long-term unemployment surged in the United States in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and Great Recession (2008-2009). The long-term unemployment rate did not fall below its pre-Great Recession levels until March 2020, which was caused by the surge in the numbers of regular unemployed persons in the U.S., not by a decrease in the absolute number of long-term unemployed. Long-term unemployment is defined as a worker who is seeking work having been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. This is a serious problem in the United States as many long-term unemployed workers have low levels of educational attainment, have worked in declining industries in the past (such as some primary or manufacturing sectors), or come from minority groups. Active labor market policies are used to address these issues, with schemes such as training and job-sharing schemes aiming to improve the job prospects of the long-term unemployed. The question of whether automation and other structural changes to the economy are causing a secular increase in long-term unemployment is a key issue facing the U.S. in the 21st century.

This phenomenological study explored how recent college graduates navigated from school to work during a recent economic downturn. More specifically, the study endeavored to understand the lived experiences of recent college graduates in a period of transition. Schlossberg’s (1984) transition theory and Arnett’s (2000) emerging adult theory framed the study. The conceptual underpinnings of both theories provided a foundation to understand the role of higher educational attainment in graduates’ time spent in the labor market to secure employment in dismal employment conditions. The heuristic value of each of the theories advanced understanding of the factors shaping the experiences of recent college graduates. This study sought an in-depth understanding of how recent college graduates handled disappointments and the types of coping resources that helped them reconcile old and new identities, exchange old tasks for new tasks, move into new responsibilities while they continued to carry on responsibilities leading to graduation and challenges associated with seeking employment. Participants’ emic stories provided expansion of the school-to-work phenomenon typically relegated to statistical reporting in terms of quantifiable unemployment and underemployment rates. This study contributes to a body of work that highlights how recent emerging adult college graduates compete for jobs post-graduation within an anemic labor market. By expanding the breadth of specialized knowledge, the information captures what is essential to empower emerging adult college graduates entering a labor market influenced by record unemployment and suggests ways to further career development. This study documented the shift in the roles and responsibilities in the school-to-work phase, and the employment issues of a cadre of recent emerging adult college graduates who were influenced by the economic recession of 2007 and its impact on the present. Interview data from nine participants were transcribed and coded to determine emerging themes. Themes were aligned with the concepts within transition theory and emerging adult theory to increase understanding of issues facing recent college graduates in transition to employment. The analysis of participants’ lived experiences expanded the educational leadership knowledge base to impact praxis by mitigating the unexpected effects of economic downturn, as students move out of school and into the labor market. The phenomenon has expanded the knowledge base by identifying how to organize resources of academic or student affairs and career centers to maximize how to offer services relevant to today’s emerging adult college graduates. The study discovered that although emerging adulthood is defined as age-based, a new category isolating the breadth of understanding for emerging adults college graduates is crucial to document the impact of dismal employment trends. Economic downturn affects the ability for young adults to reconcile identities. Study participants reported a lack of knowledge about how to mitigate their student orientation to career socialization. This study exposed a need for integration of student development theory, historically germane to traditional-aged collegians, and career development theory to guide emerging adult college graduates toward their career goals. The disconnect between the mass production of degrees and skills essential to the labor market (Bivens, 2014 ), have an impact on emerging adults who are one of four generations competing for skilled jobs at competitive rates of pay.

Estimation results: All years and by recession/non-recession periods.

The US Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program is designed to provide income support to workers who become unable to work because of a severe, long-lasting disability. In this study, we use administrative data to estimate the effect of labor market conditions, as measured by the unemployment rate, on the number of SSDI applications, the number and composition of initial allowances and denials, and the timing of applications relative to disability onset. We analyze the period of the Great Recession, and compare this period with business cycle effects over the past two decades, from 1992 through 2012.

Probit selection equation results for male likelihood of employment.

As of March 2025, South Africa had the highest unemployment rate among the 19* countries that are members of the G20. The unemployment rate in South Africa stood at **** percent that year. The country has recently been plagued by an economic downturn, including energy shortages and high unemployment levels. On the other hand, Japan had the lowest unemployment rate at just *** percent. Economic inequality in South Africa Not only does South Africa top the G20 in overall unemployment, but it also has a significant level of youth unemployment, as nearly half of the young population is unemployed. Thirty years after the end of Apartheid, South Africa is also still one of the most unequal countries in the world, with a Gini score of ****. The prominence of inequality in the country makes escaping unemployment and underemployment difficult. Japanese economic slowdown While Japan had the lowest unemployment rate out of all G20 nations, as well as the lowest youth unemployment rate out of the G20 nations, Japan’s economy is still facing many challenges. With an aging population, the total Japanese population is facing a rapid decline, meaning that it will struggle to have enough workers participating in the labor market. Despite this, Japan maintains strict immigration policies, limiting the chances for foreign workers to move to Japan. Moreover, Japan has the second lowest fertility rate out of the G7 nations and one of the lowest fertility rates globally, adding another challenge in addressing population shrinkage.