In 2021, around **** million people were estimated to be living in the urban area of Shanghai. Shanghai was the largest city in China in 2021, followed by Beijing, with around **** million inhabitants. The rise of the new first-tier cities The past decades have seen widespread and rapid urbanization and demographic transition in China. While the four first-tier megacities, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, are still highly attractive to people and companies due to their strong ability to synergize the competitive economic and social resources, some lower-tier cities are already facing declining populations, especially those in the northeastern region. Below the original four first-tier cities, 15 quickly developing cities are sharing the cake of the moving population with improving business vitality and GDP growth potential. These new first-tier cities are either municipalities directly under the central government, such as Chongqing and Tianjin, or regional central cities and provincial capitals, like Chengdu and Wuhan, or open coastal cities in the economically developed eastern regions. From urbanization to metropolitanization As more and more Chinese people migrate to large cities for better opportunities and quality of life, the ongoing urbanization has further evolved into metropolitanization. Among those metropolitans, Shenzhen's population exceeded **** million in 2020, a nearly ** percent increase from a decade ago, compared to eight percent in the already densely populated Shanghai. However, with people rushing into the big-four cities, the cost of housing, and other living standards, are soaring. As of 2020, the average sales price for residential real estate in Shenzhen exceeded ****** yuan per square meter. As a result, the fast-growing and more cost-effective new first-tier cities would be more appealing in the coming years. Furthermore, Shanghai and Beijing have set plans to control the size of their population to ** and ** million, respectively, before 2035.

Population in the largest city (% of urban population) in China was reported at 3.2342 % in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. China - Population in the largest city - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on October of 2025.

China is a vast and diverse country and population density in different regions varies greatly. In 2023, the estimated population density of the administrative area of Shanghai municipality reached about 3,922 inhabitants per square kilometer, whereas statistically only around three people were living on one square kilometer in Tibet. Population distribution in China China's population is unevenly distributed across the country: while most people are living in the southeastern half of the country, the northwestern half – which includes the provinces and autonomous regions of Tibet, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia – is only sparsely populated. Even the inhabitants of a single province might be unequally distributed within its borders. This is significantly influenced by the geography of each region, and is especially the case in the Guangdong, Fujian, or Sichuan provinces due to their mountain ranges. The Chinese provinces with the largest absolute population size are Guangdong in the south, Shandong in the east and Henan in Central China. Urbanization and city population Urbanization is one of the main factors which have been reshaping China over the last four decades. However, when comparing the size of cities and urban population density, one has to bear in mind that data often refers to the administrative area of cities or urban units, which might be much larger than the contiguous built-up area of that city. The administrative area of Beijing municipality, for example, includes large rural districts, where only around 200 inhabitants are living per square kilometer on average, while roughly 20,000 residents per square kilometer are living in the two central city districts. This is the main reason for the huge difference in population density between the four Chinese municipalities Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing shown in many population statistics.

Hong Kong HK: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data was reported at 99.637 % in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 99.540 % for 2016. Hong Kong HK: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data is updated yearly, averaging 99.382 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in 2010 and a record low of 94.548 % in 1974. Hong Kong HK: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Hong Kong – Table HK.World Bank: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population in largest city is the percentage of a country's urban population living in that country's largest metropolitan area.; ; United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects.; Weighted average;

Hong Kong HK: Population in Largest City data was reported at 7,364,883.000 Person in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 7,302,843.000 Person for 2016. Hong Kong HK: Population in Largest City data is updated yearly, averaging 5,581,213.500 Person from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7,364,883.000 Person in 2017 and a record low of 2,611,539.000 Person in 1960. Hong Kong HK: Population in Largest City data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Hong Kong SAR – Table HK.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population in largest city is the urban population living in the country's largest metropolitan area.; ; United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects.; ;

This statistic depicts the household registered population in provincial capital cities and municipalities of China as of December 2021, by city. At the end of 2021, Chongqing municipality had a registered household population of about ***** million people.

Macau MO: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data was reported at 100.000 % in 2017. This stayed constant from the previous number of 100.000 % for 2016. Macau MO: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data is updated yearly, averaging 100.000 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in 2017 and a record low of 100.000 % in 1978. Macau MO: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Macau SAR – Table MO.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population in largest city is the percentage of a country's urban population living in that country's largest metropolitan area.; ; United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects.; Weighted average;

Macau MO: Population in Largest City data was reported at 622,567.000 Person in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 612,167.000 Person for 2016. Macau MO: Population in Largest City data is updated yearly, averaging 325,850.000 Person from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 622,567.000 Person in 2017 and a record low of 159,892.000 Person in 1960. Macau MO: Population in Largest City data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Macau SAR – Table MO.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population in largest city is the urban population living in the country's largest metropolitan area.; ; United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects.; ;

This statistic illustrates the population of the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area cities in 2024. That year, the population of Guangzhou amounted to approximately ***** million people, making it the largest city by population in the region.

Nowhere has the scale and scope of urbanization been larger than in China over the last few decades. We analyze Chinese city development between the years 1996 and 2014 using data for the urbanized components of prefecture-level cities. We show that, despite much variability and fast economic and demographic change, China is undergoing transformations similar to the historical trajectory of other urban systems. We also show that the distinguishing signs of urban economies—superlinear scaling of agglomeration effects in economic productivity and economies of scale in land use—also characterize Chinese cities. We then analyze the structure of economic change in Chinese cities using a variety of metrics, characterizing employment, firms and households. Population size estimates remain a major challenge for Chinese cities, as official numbers are often reported based on the Hukou registration system. We use the information in the residuals to scaling relations for economic quantities to predict actual resident population and show that these estimates agree well with data for a subset of cities for which counts of total resident population exist. We conclude with a list of issues that must be better understood and measured to make sense of present urban development trajectories in China.

This statistic shows the population density in urban areas of China in 2023, by region. In 2023, cities in Heilongjiang province had the highest population density in China with around ***** people living on one square kilometer on average. However, as the administrative areas of many Chinese cities reach beyond their contiguous built-up urban areas - and this by varying degree, the statistical significance of the given figures may be limited. By comparison, the Chinese province with the highest overall population density is Jiangsu province in Eastern China reaching about 7956 people per square kilometer in 2023.

As of 2023, around **** million people were living in the city Nanjing. Nanjing is the largest city of Jiangsu province and was designated as capital in several dynasties in Chinese history.

In 2022, the estimated population density of China was around 150.42 people per square kilometer. That year, China's population size declined for the first time in decades. Although China is the most populous country in the world, its overall population density is not much higher than the average population density in Asia. Uneven population distribution China is one of the largest countries in terms of land area, and its population density figures vary dramatically from region to region. Overall, the coastal regions in the East and Southeast have the highest population densities, as they belong to the more economically developed regions of the country. These coastal regions also have a higher urbanization rate. On the contrary, the regions in the West are covered with mountain landscapes which are not suitable for the development of big cities. Populous cities in China Several Chinese cities rank among the most populous cities in the world. According to estimates, Beijing and Shanghai will rank among the top ten megacities in the world by 2030. Both cities are also the largest Chinese cities in terms of land area. The previous colonial regions, Macao and Hong Kong, are two of the most densely populated cities in the world.

The computed population density data for the map is based on a media CD released by ESRI in 2006. According to the media CD, China in 2006 comprised of 33 provinces. These include Tibet (now named Xizang, an autonomously administered region), Hong Kong and Macau (both of which are designated as special districts) along with Xingiang in the west, parts of which are involved in an unsettled border dispute with a neighboring country, as can be seen by a dotted line in google base map of the region and Taiwan. Compare this map with the population density map of 2002 that now has only 32 provinces...

By 2035, over 34 million people are projected to call Shanghai home. To reduce this number, the Chinese Government implemented population controls for the city in 2017 which aimed to limit the population living in the administrative area of Shanghai municipality to just around 25 million people in 2035.

Megacity – Shanghai

As China’s cities become increasingly urbanized, the demographic of this megacity has also changed considerably over the years, with more and more Chinese locals and foreigners opting to dwell in Shanghai for work and cultural opportunities. A huge proportion of residents in the city originate from other regions in China. Over 39 percent of the city’s residents are long-term migrants and Shanghai host’s many foreigners and expats.

A global financial hub as well as the largest city by population, Shanghai is located on China’s central coast, making it an ideal location to accommodate the world’s busiest container port. The economic contribution of the city to China is significant - Shanghai’s gross domestic product contribution amounted to almost 4.7 trillion yuan in 2023. Despite recent restrictions to land made available for construction, the value of investment in real estate development in Shanghai has continued to increase. To mitigate the effects of its high population, the city has stated it will intensify environmental protection measures.

Context

This is a dataset of the most highly populated city (if applicable) in a form easy to join with the COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) dataset. You can see how to use it in this kernel

Content

There are four columns. The first two correspond to the columns from the original COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) dataset. The other two is the highest population density, at city level, for the given country/state. Note that some countries are very small and in those cases the population density reflects the entire country. Since the original dataset has a few cruise ships as well, I've added them there.

Acknowledgements

Thanks a lot to Kaggle for this competition that gave me the opportunity to look closely at some data and understand this problem better.

Inspiration

Summary: I believe that the square root of the population density should relate to the logistic growth factor of the SIR model. I think the SEIR model isn't applicable due to any intervention being too late for a fast-spreading virus like this, especially in places with dense populations.

After playing with the data provided in COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) (and everything else online or media) a bit, one thing becomes clear. They have nothing to do with epidemiology. They reflect sociopolitical characteristics of a country/state and, more specifically, the reactivity and attitude towards testing.

The testing method used (PCR tests) means that what we measure could potentially be a proxy for the number of people infected during the last 3 weeks, i.e the growth (with lag). It's not how many people have been infected and recovered. Antibody or serology tests would measure that, and by using them, we could go back to normality faster... but those will arrive too late. Way earlier, China will have experimentally shown that it's safe to go back to normal as soon as your number of newly infected per day is close to zero.

https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F197482%2F429e0fdd7f1ce86eba882857ac7a735e%2Fcovid-summary.png?generation=1585072438685236&alt=media" alt="">

My view, as a person living in NYC, about this virus, is that by the time governments react to media pressure, to lockdown or even test, it's too late. In dense areas, everyone susceptible has already amble opportunities to be infected. Especially for a virus with 5-14 days lag between infections and symptoms, a period during which hosts spread it all over on subway, the conditions are hopeless. Active populations have already been exposed, mostly asymptomatic and recovered. Sensitive/older populations are more self-isolated/careful in affluent societies (maybe this isn't the case in North Italy). As the virus finishes exploring the active population, it starts penetrating the more isolated ones. At this point in time, the first fatalities happen. Then testing starts. Then the media and the lockdown. Lockdown seems overly effective because it coincides with the tail of the disease spread. It helps slow down the virus exploring the long-tail of sensitive population, and we should all contribute by doing it, but it doesn't cause the end of the disease. If it did, then as soon as people were back in the streets (see China), there would be repeated outbreaks.

Smart politicians will test a lot because it will make their condition look worse. It helps them demand more resources. At the same time, they will have a low rate of fatalities due to large denominator. They can take credit for managing well a disproportionally major crisis - in contrast to people who didn't test.

We were lucky this time. We, Westerners, have woken up to the potential of a pandemic. I'm sure we will give further resources for prevention. Additionally, we will be more open-minded, helping politicians to have more direct responses. We will also require them to be more responsible in their messages and reactions.

Based on a collection of estimates, over the past 9,000 years, there have been at least 48 cities with a claim to the title of "the world's most populous city". While these can be found on four separate continents, the majority are concentrated in three major regions; 12 of these cities were in present-day Iraq or Syria (then-Mesopotamia), nine were in China, and seven in Egypt. Additionally, many of these cities were found across the Mediterranean, not only during Antiquity (Alexandria, Carthage, and Rome), but also during the Middle Ages (Constantinople, Cordova, and Fez), highlighting the economic significance of this region throughout history.

Many of the older entries in this list are now just archeological sites, although several have been continuously inhabited for millennia, such as Luoyang and Xi'an in China, which both have populations of several million in 2022. It may also be possible that the first entry, Jericho, is the world's oldest, continuously inhabited settlement, although this is a topic of debate.

The "Major Cities" layer is derived from the "World Cities" dataset provided by ArcGIS Data and Maps group as part of the global data layers made available for public use. "Major cities" layer specifically contains National and Provincial capitals that have the highest population within their respective country. Cities were filtered based on the STATUS (“National capital”, “National and provincial capital”, “Provincial capital”, “National capital and provincial capital enclave”, and “Other”). Majority of these cities within larger countries have been filtered at the highest levels of POP_CLASS (“5,000,000 and greater” and “1,000,000 to 4,999,999”). However, China for example, was filtered with cities over 11 million people due to many highly populated cities. Population approximations are sourced from US Census and UN Data. Credits: ESRI, CIA World Factbook, GMI, NIMA, UN Data, UN Habitat, US Census Bureau Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material at this site do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Baidu Migration Big Data provides indices of migration scale (including an in-migration scale index and an out-migration scale index) recorded in days for 369 cities(4 municipalities directly under the central government, 2 special administrative regions, 293 prefecture-level cities, 7 prefectures, 30 autonomous prefectures, 3 leagues, 29 county-level administrative units directly managed by the province, and Taiwan Province) in China and the percentage of in-migration from a particular city to the total in-migration from that city for each city's in-migration sources. The migration scale index reflects the size of a city's in-migration or out-migration populations and allows for cross-city comparisons. PM_ij is the index of spatial connection of population migration between city i and city j.

This statistic shows the twenty countries with the projected largest urban populations worldwide in 2050. Forecasts estimate that the urban population of China will be 1.09 billion people in 2050.