Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Trough (MSCRECM) from Feb 1960 to Aug 2022 about G7, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Feb 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Sweden from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (SWERECDP) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, Sweden, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major 5 Asia from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (MAJOR5ASIARECP) from Jan 1978 to Aug 2022 about Major 5 Asia, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Great Recession was a period of economic contraction which came in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent bankruptcies among Wall Street financial institutions, the most significant of which being the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. These economic convulsions caused consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), to drop sharply in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. How does the Consumer Confidence Index work? The CCI measures household's expectation of their future economic situation and, consequently, their likely future spending and savings decisions. A score of 100 in the index would indicate a neutral economic outlook, with consumers neither being optimistic nor pessimistic about the near future. Scores below 100 are then more pessimistic, while scores above 100 indicate optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on the economy, as when consumers are pessimistic about the economy, they tend to save and postpone spending, contracting aggregate demand and causing the economy to slow down. Conversely, when consumers are optimistic and willing to spend, this can have a reinforcing effect as wages and employment may rise when consumers spend more. CCI and the Great Recession As the reality of the trouble which the U.S. financial sector was in set in over 2007, consumer confidence dropped sharply from being slightly positive, to being deeply pessimistic by the Summer of 2008. While confidence began to slowly rebound up until September 2008, with the panic caused by Lehman's bankruptcy and the freezing of new credit creation, the CCI plummeted once more, reaching its lowest point during the recession in February 2008. The U.S. government stepped in to prevent the bankruptcy of AIG in 2008, promising to do the same for any future possible failures in the financial system. This 'backstopping' policy, whereby the government assured that the economy would not be allowed to fall further into crisis, along with the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies used to restart the economy, contributed to a rebound in consumer confidence in 2009 and 2010. In spite of this, consumers still remained pessimistic about the economy.

In 2020, the inflation rate in Brazil amounted to about 3.21 percent compared to the previous year, a slight increase from the previous year’s 3.73 percent, but a large improvement compared to 2015 with more than 9 percent.

Superlative Brazil

Brazil is not only one of the largest countries in the world, it is also one of the largest economies and a member of the so-called BRIC states, four up-and-coming emerging economies. Unfortunately, Brazil also struggles due to an on-going recession; In 2017, the majority of Brazilians described the state of the country’s economy as “bad”.

The state of Brazil’s economy

Brazil’s mixed economy suffered a severe political and economic crisis in 2014 that only ended in 2016. The country’s GDP slumped dramatically and inflation skyrocketed. As of today, Brazil has recovered, GDP is on the rise again, and inflation is below four percent – however, as a result of the recession that saw millions of job cuts, unemployment is at an all-time high.

Dow Jones U.S. Select Telecommunications index is expected to continue its upward trend in the near term. The index is currently trading near its all-time high, and there are several factors that could continue to support its rise. One factor is the strong performance of the technology sector, which is a major component of the index. Another factor is the increasing demand for telecommunications services as more and more people rely on the internet for work, entertainment, and communication. However, there are also some risks to consider. One risk is the possibility of a recession, which could lead to a decline in demand for telecommunications services. Another risk is the increasing competition from new entrants into the market.

As of January 29, 2025, the FTSE index stood at 8,557.81 points - well above its average value of around 7,500 points in the past few years.On the 12th of March 2020, amid the escalating crisis surrounding the coronavirus and fears of a global recession, the FTSE 100 suffered the second largest one day crash in its history and the biggest since the 1987 market crash. On the 23rd of March, the FTSE index saw its lowest value this year to date at 4,993.89 but has since began a tentative recovery. With the continuation of the pandemic, the FTSE 100 index was making a tentative recovery between late March 2020 and early June 2020. Since then the FSTE 100 index had plateaued towards the end of July, before starting a tentative upward trend in November. FTSE 100 The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, otherwise known as the FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 largest companies trading on the London Stock Exchange in terms of market capitalization. At the end of March 2024, the largest company trading on the LSE was Shell. The largest ever initial public offering (IPO) on the LSE was Glencore International plc. European stock exchanges While nearly every country in Europe has a stock exchange, only five are considered major, and have a market capital of over one trillion U.S dollars. European stock exchanges make up two of the top ten major stock markets in the world. Europe’s biggest stock exchange is the Euronext which combines seven markets based in Belgium, France, England, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

THE FINE ART OF INVESTING DETERMINING RISK AND RETURN OF AN INVESTMENT IN ART

Ralph Palliam

Abstract

If one should buy something only because one loves it for its beauty or some other aspect of aesthetic or personal appeal, one can never really lose. Individuals who collect art and who share the growing interest in art as an investment question whether art is a good investment particularly when art is illiquid and the ability to convert an art investment into cash expeditiously is limited. Anything that can be said about art as an investment obviously applies only to genuine art and not fakes or forgeries. Investors need to be able to find out what is authentic and what is not. Art prices may be quite unpredictable, and investment horizons may run for decades and art often ends up as part of an estate. Past performance in art investing is no indicator of future results. At the same time statistics suggest that discerning investors might at least want to give some thought to adding art to their portfolios. The next issue is whether art serves any function in a portfolio. Sales at the major auction houses are setting record prices for art against the backdrop of major recession. Studies indicate that art values tend to hold up well during periods of economic difficulty and that art indices outperform major stock indices during times of war. Art could therefore be a balancing or stabilizing asset. This study considers whether investing in a fine art at the correct price could diversify a portfolio risk and stabilize the volatility of one's portfolio and position one's art collection for upside appreciation. . Since investment in art is modeled with due regard to the peculiarities of artistic work and value created activities, it follows that the construction of earnings functions and models of career choice in this area will also need to account for the risk and return function. A successful entrepreneur sees business where others do not. The blessing of the capitalist system is that it rewards those that come with good new ideas and bring them to business.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Out of the world's seven largest economies, the United Kingdom was the most negatively affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. During the third quarter of 2020, the GDP growth rate of the UK stood at minus 7.7 percent compared to the previous year. Furthermore, the GDPs of India and Japan were contracted by minus 5.3 percent. Only China experienced a positive GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent during that same period. However, in 2021, all the largest economies worldwide started to recover, with growth rates varying from 1.2 percent (Japan) to over nine percent (India).

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2023 amounted to around 27.72 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

In September 2024, the global PMI amounted to 47.5 for new export orders and 48.8 for manufacturing. The manufacturing PMI was at its lowest point in August 2020. It decreased over the last months of 2022 after the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and rising inflation hit the world economy, and remained around 50 since.

The year 2021 saw the peak in issuance of residential mortgage backed securities (MBS), at 3.7 trillion U.S. dollars. Since then, MBS issuance has slowed, reaching 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023. What are mortgage backed securities? A mortgage backed security is a financial instrument in which a group of mortgages are bundled together and sold to the investors. The idea is that the risk of these individual mortgages is pooled when they are packaged together. This is a sound investment policy, unless the foreclosure rate increases significantly in a short amount of time. Mortgage risk Since mortgages are loans backed by an asset, the house, the risk is often considered relatively low. However, the loan maturities are very long, sometimes decades, meaning lenders must factor in the risk of a shift in the economic climate. As such, interest rates on longer mortgages tend to be higher than on shorter loans. The ten-year treasury yield influences these rates, since it is a long-term rate that most investors accept as risk-free. Additionally, a drop in the value of homeowner equity could lead to a situation where the debtor is “underwater” and owes more than the home is worth.

Graph and download economic data for Leading Indicators OECD: Reference Series: Gross Domestic Product: Original Series for the Russian Federation (LORSGPORRUQ659S) from Q1 1996 to Q3 2021 about leading indicator, Russia, and GDP.