The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USRECD) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-03-24 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Poland from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (POLRECD) from 1995-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about peak, trough, Poland, and recession indicators.

We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically, we show that the X-11 adjustment filter both reduces the magnitude of change at turning points and reduces the depth of recessions, with specific effects depending on the length of the recession. A Monte Carlo analysis using Markov-switching models confirms these properties, with particularly undesirable effects in delaying the recognition of the end of a recession. However, seasonal adjustment can help to clarify the true regime when this is well underway. These results continue to hold when a seasonally non-stationary process with regime-dependent mean is misspecified as one with deterministic seasonal effects. The empirical findings, based on four coincident US business cycle indicators, reinforce the analytical and simulation results by showing that seasonal adjustment leads to the identification of longer and shallower recessions than obtained using unadjusted data.

MLE for the parameters of GuGRP considering the recession duration and depth.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Chile from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (CHLREC) from Feb 1995 to Sep 2022 about Chile, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Norway from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (NORREC) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about Norway, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

We provide new evidence on the effect of the unemployment insurance (UI) weekly benefit amount on unemployment insurance spells based on administrative data from the state of Missouri covering the period 2003-2013. Identification comes from a regression kink design that exploits the quasi-experimental variation around the kink in the UI benefit schedule. We find that UI durations are more responsive to benefit levels during the recession and its aftermath, with an elasticity between 0.65 and 0.9 as compared to about 0.35 pre-recession.

Correlation between the limbus-insertion distance (LID) of the lateral rectus (LR) muscle and postoperative dose-response effect.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

This is a qualitative data collection. To understand the processes and motivations behind changes in labour market behaviour during periods of economic recession, this research project recorded the experiences and views of couple-households exposed to job loss in the Great Recession. Conducted as part of a larger ESRC-funded quantitative project, qualitative interviews were carried out with a purposive sample derived from the Understanding Society Innovation Panel. (The Understanding Society Innovation Panel is an annual panel survey that collects a wide range of information about the economic and social circumstances of those living in 1500 households across Britain.) Using the wealth of longitudinal information in the Understanding Society Innovation Panel, a sampling frame of approximately 150 couple households was identified where someone had either lost their job or was working reduced hours in the period 2008 to 2011. A carefully selected sample of 17 households were followed up and in-depth interviews were conducted with the couple-member who had experienced job loss and, where possible, their partner. The selection process was designed to assemble a sample reflecting a diverse range of household and family profiles; namely, couples with and without children, older and younger children; the pre-retirement phase; a range of incomes; and labour market areas across England more and less affected by the recession. Wherever feasible, partners were interviewed separately to allow each participant the opportunity to express their personal views most freely. Overall this led to 30 interviews, each of about 45 minutes in length. Fieldwork took place between October 2012 and February 2013 and consent was obtained verbally. The research design incorporates the ability to link the interview transcripts to Understanding Society Innovation Panel survey data for future combined analysis of qualitative and quantitative material, subject to Special Licence.


Main Topics:

Topics covered in the in-depth interviews include: contextual details surrounding the job loss event, the extent to which job loss was anticipated, change and continuities in joint labour supply (including the division of domestic labour), consumption and expenditure practices, decision making processes and intra-household bargaining, job seeking behaviour, the use of social networks, outlook and expectations for the future.

Life satisfaction and malaise scores in NCDS7 at 46 and NCDS8 at 50 (OLS).

Inflow rate, average slope, Manning’s roughness, inflow duration, advance time, CR, infiltrated volume, and KE equation coefficients for each irrigated bordera.

The archived data consist of family interviews about changes in the lives of families with children in Finland in the 1990s. The interviews were conducted with parents and children in Tampere and Jyväskylä regions in 1996. Views were probed on the structure of the family, living conditions, changes in the family in the 90s, leisure activities, social relationships, and future plans. The data include 59 interviews and 23 summaries with a total length of 1,342 pages. The dataset is only available in Finnish.

The data consist of summaries in English of family interviews conducted in Finnish, focusing on changes in the lives of families with children in 1990s Finland. The original interviews and summaries in Finnish are archived in the dataset FSD2246. The interviews were conducted in 1996 in Tampere and Jyväskylä regions in 23 families. Adult family members were interviewed both together and separately. In the joint interviews, spouses were asked about family composition, housing, household income, changes in the family in the 1990s, and taste in tv programs, clothes, food and decoration. In the individual interviews, the main topics included the respondents' life history, educational and employment history, organisation of everyday life, children and their upbringing, daycare and school, job, ideas of social class and politics, and social networks. Seven children, aged 6-13, were interviewed about their everyday life at home and outside home, leisure activities, housing and environment, taste in food, movies, books and clothes, changes in life, future expectations, school and homework, relationship with parents, the family's social class, and social networks. The data comprise 26 summaries with a total length of 237 pages. The interview summaries and child interview questions are available in English.

Pain Variables in NCDS.

This poll, conducted on October 8, 2001, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President George W. Bush and his handling of the presidency, the national economy, and the attacks of September 11th on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, as well as their views and feelings on the military attacks by the United States against targets in Afghanistan. Respondents also expressed their confidence in the ability of the United States government to capture Osama Bin Laden, to maintain the international alliance of the countries supporting United States military efforts, to achieve its military goals without significant civilian casualties among the Afghan people and without significant United States military casualties, and to protect its citizens from future terrorist attacks. Those queried also presented their views on the likelihood of another terrorist attack in the United States within the next few months, the expected length of time a war against countries that harbor terrorists would last, and any feelings they might have toward Arab people due to the attacks. Additional questions polled respondents on whether the United States was in an economic recession or was near an economic recession, whether there were any unemployed adults in their household, and their concerns about future unemployment in the household. Background information on respondents includes age, gender, race, political affiliation, religion, current and past military service, and marital status.