In 2022, people who identified as Asian had a projected life expectancy of 84.5 years, the highest in the United States, whereas an American Indian or Alaska native had the lowest with 67.9 years. From 2019 to 2021, life expectancy at birth declined in the U.S., regardless of race and ethnicity. One of the main drivers of this decline was the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2020, a newborn Hispanic child in the United States had a projected life expectancy of 77.9 years, the highest life expectancy among the ethnic groups studied. In comparison, the life expectancy at birth for a Black, non-Hispanic child in 2020 was 71.5 years.

We used individual-level death data to estimate county-level life expectancy at 25 (e25) for Whites, Black, AIAN and Asian in the contiguous US for 2000-2005. Race-sex-stratified models were used to examine the associations among e25, rurality and specific race proportion, adjusted for socioeconomic variables. Individual death data from the National Center for Health Statistics were aggregated as death counts into five-year age groups by county and race-sex groups for the contiguous US for years 2000-2005 (National Center for Health Statistics 2000-2005). We used bridged-race population estimates to calculate five-year mortality rates. The bridged population data mapped 31 race categories, as specified in the 1997 Office of Management and Budget standards for the collection of data on race and ethnicity, to the four race categories specified under the 1977 standards (the same as race categories in mortality registration) (Ingram et al. 2003). The urban-rural gradient was represented by the 2003 Rural Urban Continuum Codes (RUCC), which distinguished metropolitan counties by population size, and nonmetropolitan counties by degree of urbanization and adjacency to a metro area (United States Department of Agriculture 2016). We obtained county-level sociodemographic data for 2000-2005 from the US Census Bureau. These included median household income, percent of population attaining greater than high school education (high school%), and percent of county occupied rental units (rent%). We obtained county violent crime from Uniform Crime Reports and used it to calculate mean number of violent crimes per capita (Federal Bureau of Investigation 2010). This dataset is not publicly accessible because: EPA cannot release personally identifiable information regarding living individuals, according to the Privacy Act and the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). This dataset contains information about human research subjects. Because there is potential to identify individual participants and disclose personal information, either alone or in combination with other datasets, individual level data are not appropriate to post for public access. Restricted access may be granted to authorized persons by contacting the party listed. It can be accessed through the following means: Request to author. Format: Data are stored as csv files. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Jian, Y., L. Neas, L. Messer, C. Gray, J. Jagai, K. Rappazzo, and D. Lobdell. Divergent trends in life expectancy across the rural-urban gradient among races in the contiguous United States. International Journal of Public Health. Springer Basel AG, Basel, SWITZERLAND, 64(9): 1367-1374, (2019).

This dataset of U.S. mortality trends since 1900 highlights the differences in age-adjusted death rates and life expectancy at birth by race and sex.

Age-adjusted death rates (deaths per 100,000) after 1998 are calculated based on the 2000 U.S. standard population. Populations used for computing death rates for 2011–2017 are postcensal estimates based on the 2010 census, estimated as of July 1, 2010. Rates for census years are based on populations enumerated in the corresponding censuses. Rates for noncensus years between 2000 and 2010 are revised using updated intercensal population estimates and may differ from rates previously published. Data on age-adjusted death rates prior to 1999 are taken from historical data (see References below).

Life expectancy data are available up to 2017. Due to changes in categories of race used in publications, data are not available for the black population consistently before 1968, and not at all before 1960. More information on historical data on age-adjusted death rates is available at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/hist293.htm.

SOURCES

CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, historical data, 1900-1998 (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_historical_data.htm); CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, mortality data (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov).

REFERENCES

1. National Center for Health Statistics, Data Warehouse. Comparability of cause-of-death between ICD revisions. 2008. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/comparability_icd.htm.

2. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital statistics data available. Mortality multiple cause files. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm.

3. Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, Xu JQ, Arias E. Deaths: Final data for 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf.

4. Arias E, Xu JQ. United States life tables, 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68 no 7. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2019. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_07-508.pdf.

5. National Center for Health Statistics. Historical Data, 1900-1998. 2009. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_historical_data.htm.

From the mid-19th century until today, life expectancy at birth in the United States has roughly doubled, from 39.4 years in 1850 to 79.6 years in 2025. It is estimated that life expectancy in the U.S. began its upward trajectory in the 1880s, largely driven by the decline in infant and child mortality through factors such as vaccination programs, antibiotics, and other healthcare advancements. Improved food security and access to clean water, as well as general increases in living standards (such as better housing, education, and increased safety) also contributed to a rise in life expectancy across all age brackets. There were notable dips in life expectancy; with an eight year drop during the American Civil War in the 1860s, a seven year drop during the Spanish Flu empidemic in 1918, and a 2.5 year drop during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were also notable plateaus (and minor decreases) not due to major historical events, such as that of the 2010s, which has been attributed to a combination of factors such as unhealthy lifestyles, poor access to healthcare, poverty, and increased suicide rates, among others. However, despite the rate of progress slowing since the 1950s, most decades do see a general increase in the long term, and current UN projections predict that life expectancy at birth in the U.S. will increase by another nine years before the end of the century.

This multi-scale map shows life expectancy - a widely-used measure of health and mortality. From the 2020 County Health Rankings page about Life Expectancy:"Life Expectancy is an AverageLife Expectancy measures the average number of years from birth a person can expect to live, according to the current mortality experience (age-specific death rates) of the population. Life Expectancy takes into account the number of deaths in a given time period and the average number of people at risk of dying during that period, allowing us to compare data across counties with different population sizes.Life Expectancy is Age-AdjustedAge is a non-modifiable risk factor, and as age increases, poor health outcomes are more likely. Life Expectancy is age-adjusted in order to fairly compare counties with differing age structures.What Deaths Count Toward Life Expectancy?Deaths are counted in the county where the individual lived. So, even if an individual dies in a car crash on the other side of the state, that death is attributed to his/her home county.Some Data are SuppressedA missing value is reported for counties with fewer than 5,000 population-years-at-risk in the time frame.Measure LimitationsLife Expectancy includes mortality of all age groups in a population instead of focusing just on premature deaths and thus can be dominated by deaths of the elderly.[1] This could draw attention to areas with higher mortality rates among the oldest segment of the population, where there may be little that can be done to change chronic health problems that have developed over many years. However, this captures the burden of chronic disease in a population better than premature death measures.[2]Furthermore, the calculation of life expectancy is complex and not easy to communicate. Methodologically, it can produce misleading results caused by hidden differences in age structure, is sensitive to infant and child mortality, and tends to be overestimated in small populations."Click on the map to see a breakdown by race/ethnicity in the pop-up: Full details about this measureThere are many factors that play into life expectancy: rates of noncommunicable diseases such as cancer, diabetes, and obesity, prevalence of tobacco use, prevalence of domestic violence, and many more.Data from County Health Rankings 2020 (in this layer and referenced below), available for nation, state, and county, and available in ArcGIS Living Atlas of the World

This statistic shows the average life expectancy in North America for those born in 2022, by gender and region. In Canada, the average life expectancy was 80 years for males and 84 years for females.

Life expectancy in North America

Of those considered in this statistic, the life expectancy of female Canadian infants born in 2021 was the longest, at 84 years. Female infants born in America that year had a similarly high life expectancy of 81 years. Male infants, meanwhile, had lower life expectancies of 80 years (Canada) and 76 years (USA).

Compare this to the worldwide life expectancy for babies born in 2021: 75 years for women and 71 years for men. Of continents worldwide, North America ranks equal first in terms of life expectancy of (77 years for men and 81 years for women). Life expectancy is lowest in Africa at just 63 years and 66 years for males and females respectively. Japan is the country with the highest life expectancy worldwide for babies born in 2020.

Life expectancy is calculated according to current mortality rates of the population in question. Global variations in life expectancy are caused by differences in medical care, public health and diet, and reflect global inequalities in economic circumstances. Africa’s low life expectancy, for example, can be attributed in part to the AIDS epidemic. In 2019, around 72,000 people died of AIDS in South Africa, the largest amount worldwide. Nigeria, Tanzania and India were also high on the list of countries ranked by AIDS deaths that year. Likewise, Africa has by far the highest rate of mortality by communicable disease (i.e. AIDS, neglected tropics diseases, malaria and tuberculosis).

Note: This dataset is historical only and there are not corresponding datasets for more recent time periods. For that more-recent information, please visit the Chicago Health Atlas at https://chicagohealthatlas.org. This dataset gives the average life expectancy and corresponding confidence intervals for sex and racial-ethnic groups in Chicago for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010. See the full description at: https://data.cityofchicago.org/api/views/3qdj-cqb8/files/pJ3PVVyubnsS2SpGO5P5IOPtNgCJZTE3LNOeLagC3mw?download=true&filename=P:\EPI\OEPHI\MATERIALS\REFERENCES\Life Expectancy\Dataset description_LE_ Sex_Race_Ethnicity.pdf

BackgroundThe gap between the highest and lowest life expectancies for race-county combinations in the United States is over 35 y. We divided the race-county combinations of the US population into eight distinct groups, referred to as the “eight Americas,” to explore the causes of the disparities that can inform specific public health intervention policies and programs. Methods and FindingsThe eight Americas were defined based on race, location of the county of residence, population density, race-specific county-level per capita income, and cumulative homicide rate. Data sources for population and mortality figures were the Bureau of the Census and the National Center for Health Statistics. We estimated life expectancy, the risk of mortality from specific diseases, health insurance, and health-care utilization for the eight Americas. The life expectancy gap between the 3.4 million high-risk urban black males and the 5.6 million Asian females was 20.7 y in 2001. Within the sexes, the life expectancy gap between the best-off and the worst-off groups was 15.4 y for males (Asians versus high-risk urban blacks) and 12.8 y for females (Asians versus low-income southern rural blacks). Mortality disparities among the eight Americas were largest for young (15–44 y) and middle-aged (45–59 y) adults, especially for men. The disparities were caused primarily by a number of chronic diseases and injuries with well-established risk factors. Between 1982 and 2001, the ordering of life expectancy among the eight Americas and the absolute difference between the advantaged and disadvantaged groups remained largely unchanged. Self-reported health plan coverage was lowest for western Native Americans and low-income southern rural blacks. Crude self-reported health-care utilization, however, was slightly higher for the more disadvantaged populations. ConclusionsDisparities in mortality across the eight Americas, each consisting of millions or tens of millions of Americans, are enormous by all international standards. The observed disparities in life expectancy cannot be explained by race, income, or basic health-care access and utilization alone. Because policies aimed at reducing fundamental socioeconomic inequalities are currently practically absent in the US, health disparities will have to be at least partly addressed through public health strategies that reduce risk factors for chronic diseases and injuries.

United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth: Total data was reported at 78.690 Year in 2016. This stayed constant from the previous number of 78.690 Year for 2015. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth: Total data is updated yearly, averaging 74.766 Year from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 78.841 Year in 2014 and a record low of 69.771 Year in 1960. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth: Total data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.; ; (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision, or derived from male and female life expectancy at birth from sources such as: (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average;

The life expectancy for men aged 65 years in the U.S. has gradually increased since the 1960s. Now men in the United States aged 65 can expect to live 18.2 more years on average. Women aged 65 years can expect to live around 20.7 more years on average. Life expectancy in the U.S. As of 2023, the average life expectancy at birth in the United States was 78.39 years. Life expectancy in the U.S. had steadily increased for many years but has recently dropped slightly. Women consistently have a higher life expectancy than men but have also seen a slight decrease. As of 2023, a woman in the U.S. could be expected to live up to 81.1 years. Leading causes of death The leading causes of death in the United States include heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, and cerebrovascular diseases. However, heart disease and cancer account for around 42 percent of all deaths. Although heart disease and cancer are the leading causes of death for both men and women, there are slight variations in the leading causes of death. For example, unintentional injury and suicide account for a larger portion of deaths among men than they do among women.

BackgroundThere has been substantial research on psychosocial and health care determinants of health disparities in the United States (US) but less on the role of modifiable risk factors. We estimated the effects of smoking, high blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and adiposity on national life expectancy and on disparities in life expectancy and disease-specific mortality among eight subgroups of the US population (the “Eight Americas”) defined on the basis of race and the location and socioeconomic characteristics of county of residence, in 2005.Methods and FindingsWe combined data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate unbiased risk factor levels for the Eight Americas. We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate age–sex–disease-specific number of deaths in 2005. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain risk factor effect sizes for disease-specific mortality. We used epidemiologic methods for multiple risk factors to estimate the effects of current exposure to these risk factors on death rates, and life table methods to estimate effects on life expectancy. Asians had the lowest mean body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking; whites had the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP). SBP was highest in blacks, especially in the rural South—5–7 mmHg higher than whites. The other three risk factors were highest in Western Native Americans, Southern low-income rural blacks, and/or low-income whites in Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley. Nationally, these four risk factors reduced life expectancy at birth in 2005 by an estimated 4.9 y in men and 4.1 y in women. Life expectancy effects were smallest in Asians (M, 4.1 y; F, 3.6 y) and largest in Southern rural blacks (M, 6.7 y; F, 5.7 y). Standard deviation of life expectancies in the Eight Americas would decline by 0.50 y (18%) in men and 0.45 y (21%) in women if these risks had been reduced to optimal levels. Disparities in the probabilities of dying from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes at different ages would decline by 69%–80%; the corresponding reduction for probabilities of dying from cancers would be 29%–50%. Individually, smoking and high blood pressure had the largest effect on life expectancy disparities.ConclusionsDisparities in smoking, blood pressure, blood glucose, and adiposity explain a significant proportion of disparities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and cancers, and some of the life expectancy disparities in the US.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

This dataset includes estimates of U.S. life expectancy at birth by state and census tract for the period 2010-2015 (1). Estimates were produced for 65,662 census tracts, covering the District of Columbia (D.C.) and all states, excluding Maine and Wisconsin, representing 88.7% of all U.S. census tracts (see notes). These estimates are the result of the collaborative project, “U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project (USALEEP),” between the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the National Association for Public Health Statistics and Information Systems (NAPHSIS), and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) (2).

United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth data was reported at 84.700 Year in 2050. This records an increase from the previous number of 84.600 Year for 2049. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth data is updated yearly, averaging 82.400 Year from Jun 2014 (Median) to 2050, with 37 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 84.700 Year in 2050 and a record low of 79.500 Year in 2014. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth: Female data was reported at 81.200 Year in 2016. This stayed constant from the previous number of 81.200 Year for 2015. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth: Female data is updated yearly, averaging 78.300 Year from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 81.300 Year in 2014 and a record low of 73.100 Year in 1960. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth: Female data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Health Statistics. Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.; ; (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision. (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average;

Every year the CDC releases the country’s most detailed report on death in the United States under the National Vital Statistics Systems. This mortality dataset is a record of every death in the country for 2005 through 2015, including detailed information about causes of death and the demographic background of the deceased.

It's been said that "statistics are human beings with the tears wiped off." This is especially true with this dataset. Each death record represents somebody's loved one, often connected with a lifetime of memories and sometimes tragically too short.

Putting the sensitive nature of the topic aside, analyzing mortality data is essential to understanding the complex circumstances of death across the country. The US Government uses this data to determine life expectancy and understand how death in the U.S. differs from the rest of the world. Whether you’re looking for macro trends or analyzing unique circumstances, we challenge you to use this dataset to find your own answers to one of life’s great mysteries.

Overview

This dataset is a collection of CSV files each containing one year's worth of data and paired JSON files containing the code mappings, plus an ICD 10 code set. The CSVs were reformatted from their original fixed-width file formats using information extracted from the CDC's PDF manuals using this script. Please note that this process may have introduced errors as the text extracted from the pdf is not a perfect match. If you have any questions or find errors in the preparation process, please leave a note in the forums. We hope to publish additional years of data using this method soon.

A more detailed overview of the data can be found here. You'll find that the fields are consistent within this time window, but some of data codes change every few years. For example, the 113_cause_recode entry 069 only covers ICD codes (I10,I12) in 2005, but by 2015 it covers (I10,I12,I15). When I post data from years prior to 2005, expect some of the fields themselves to change as well.

All data comes from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Systems, with the exception of the Icd10Code, which are sourced from the World Health Organization.

Project ideas

• The CDC's mortality data was the basis of a widely publicized paper, by Anne Case and Nobel prize winner Angus Deaton, arguing that middle-aged whites are dying at elevated rates. One of the criticisms against the paper is that it failed to properly account for the exact ages within the broad bins available through the CDC's WONDER tool. What do these results look like with exact/not-binned age data?
• Similarly, how sensitive are the mortality trends being discussed in the news to the choice of bin-widths?
• As noted above, the data preparation process could have introduced errors. Can you find any discrepancies compared to the aggregate metrics on WONDER? If so, please let me know in the forums!
• WONDER is cited in numerous economics, sociology, and public health research papers. Can you find any papers whose conclusions would be altered if they used the exact data available here rather than binned data from Wonder?

Differences from the first version of the dataset

• This version of the dataset was prepared in a completely different many. This has allowed us to provide a much larger volume of data and ensure that codes are available for every field.
• We've replaced the batch of sql files with a single JSON per year. Kaggle's platform currently offer's better support for JSON files, and this keeps the number of files manageable.
• A tutorial kernel providing a quick introduction to the new format is available here.
• Lastly, I apologize if the transition has interrupted anyone's work! If need be, you can still download v1.

The life expectancy of men at birth in the United States stood at 75.8 years in 2023. Between 1960 and 2023, the life expectancy rose by 9.2 years, though the increase followed an uneven trajectory rather than a consistent upward trend.

In 2024, the average life expectancy in the world was 71 years for men and 76 years for women. The lowest life expectancies were found in Africa, while Oceania and Europe had the highest. What is life expectancy?Life expectancy is defined as a statistical measure of how long a person may live, based on demographic factors such as gender, current age, and most importantly the year of their birth. The most commonly used measure of life expectancy is life expectancy at birth or at age zero. The calculation is based on the assumption that mortality rates at each age were to remain constant in the future. Life expectancy has changed drastically over time, especially during the past 200 years. In the early 20th century, the average life expectancy at birth in the developed world stood at 31 years. It has grown to an average of 70 and 75 years for males and females respectively, and is expected to keep on growing with advances in medical treatment and living standards continuing. Highest and lowest life expectancy worldwide Life expectancy still varies greatly between different regions and countries of the world. The biggest impact on life expectancy is the quality of public health, medical care, and diet. As of 2022, the countries with the highest life expectancy were Japan, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, and Australia, all at 84–83 years. Most of the countries with the lowest life expectancy are mostly African countries. The ranking was led by the Chad, Nigeria, and Lesotho with 53–54 years.

Abstract

The Health Inequality Project uses big data to measure differences in life expectancy by income across areas and identify strategies to improve health outcomes for low-income Americans.

Section 7

This table reports life expectancy point estimates and standard errors for men and women at age 40 for each percentile of the national income distribution. Both race-adjusted and unadjusted estimates are reported.

Source

Section 13

This table reports life expectancy point estimates and standard errors for men and women at age 40 for each percentile of the national income distribution separately by year. Both race-adjusted and unadjusted estimates are reported.

Source

Section 6

This dataset was created on 2020-01-10 18:53:00.508 by merging multiple datasets together. The source datasets for this version were:

Commuting Zone Life Expectancy Estimates by year: CZ-level by-year life expectancy estimates for men and women, by income quartile

Commuting Zone Life Expectancy: Commuting zone (CZ)-level life expectancy estimates for men and women, by income quartile

Commuting Zone Life Expectancy Trends: CZ-level estimates of trends in life expectancy for men and women, by income quartile

Commuting Zone Characteristics: CZ-level characteristics

Commuting Zone Life Expectancy for larger populations: CZ-level life expectancy estimates for men and women, by income ventile

Section 15

This table reports life expectancy point estimates and standard errors for men and women at age 40 for each quartile of the national income distribution by state of residence and year. Both race-adjusted and unadjusted estimates are reported.

Source

Section 11

This table reports US mortality rates by gender, age, year and household income percentile. Household incomes are measured two years prior to the mortality rate for mortality rates at ages 40-63, and at age 61 for mortality rates at ages 64-76. The “lag” variable indicates the number of years between measurement of income and mortality.

Observations with 1 or 2 deaths have been masked: all mortality rates that reflect only 1 or 2 deaths have been recoded to reflect 3 deaths

Source

Section 3

This table reports coefficients and standard errors from regressions of life expectancy estimates for men and women at age 40 for each quartile of the national income distribution on calendar year by commuting zone of residence. Only the slope coefficient, representing the average increase or decrease in life expectancy per year, is reported. Trend estimates for both race-adjusted and unadjusted life expectancies are reported. Estimates are reported for the 100 largest CZs (populations greater than 590,000) only.

Source

Section 9

This table reports life expectancy estimates at age 40 for Males and Females for all countries. Source: World Health Organization, accessed at: http://apps.who.int/gho/athena/

Source

Section 10

This table reports life expectancy point estimates and standard errors for men and women at age 40 for each quartile of the national income distribution by county of residence. Both race-adjusted and unadjusted estimates are reported. Estimates are reported for counties with populations larger than 25,000 only

Source

Section 2

This table reports life expectancy point estimates and standard errors for men and women at age 40 for each quartile of the national income distribution by commuting zone of residence and year. Both race-adjusted and unadjusted estimates are reported. Estimates are reported for the 100 largest CZs (populations greater than 590,000) only.

Source

Section 8

This table reports US population and death counts by age, year, and sex from various sources. Counts labelled “dm1” are derived from the Social Security Administration Data Master 1 file. Counts labelled “irs” are derived from tax data. Counts labelled “cdc” are derived from NCHS life tables.

Source

Section 12

This table reports numerous county characteristics, compiled from various sources. These characteristics are described in the county life expectancy table.

Two variables constructed by the Cen

VITAL SIGNS INDICATOR Life Expectancy (EQ6)

FULL MEASURE NAME Life Expectancy

LAST UPDATED April 2017

DESCRIPTION Life expectancy refers to the average number of years a newborn is expected to live if mortality patterns remain the same. The measure reflects the mortality rate across a population for a point in time.

DATA SOURCE State of California, Department of Health: Death Records (1990-2013) No link

California Department of Finance: Population Estimates Annual Intercensal Population Estimates (1990-2010) Table P-2: County Population by Age (2010-2013) http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/

U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census ZCTA Population (2000-2010) http://factfinder.census.gov

U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey 5-Year Population Estimates (2013) http://factfinder.census.gov

CONTACT INFORMATION vitalsigns.info@mtc.ca.gov

METHODOLOGY NOTES (across all datasets for this indicator) Life expectancy is commonly used as a measure of the health of a population. Life expectancy does not reflect how long any given individual is expected to live; rather, it is an artificial measure that captures an aspect of the mortality rates across a population that can be compared across time and populations. More information about the determinants of life expectancy that may lead to differences in life expectancy between neighborhoods can be found in the Bay Area Regional Health Inequities Initiative (BARHII) Health Inequities in the Bay Area report at http://www.barhii.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/barhii_hiba.pdf. Vital Signs measures life expectancy at birth (as opposed to cohort life expectancy). A statistical model was used to estimate life expectancy for Bay Area counties and ZIP Codes based on current life tables which require both age and mortality data. A life table is a table which shows, for each age, the survivorship of a people from a certain population.

Current life tables were created using death records and population estimates by age. The California Department of Public Health provided death records based on the California death certificate information. Records include age at death and residential ZIP Code. Single-year age population estimates at the regional- and county-level comes from the California Department of Finance population estimates and projections for ages 0-100+. Population estimates for ages 100 and over are aggregated to a single age interval. Using this data, death rates in a population within age groups for a given year are computed to form unabridged life tables (as opposed to abridged life tables). To calculate life expectancy, the probability of dying between the jth and (j+1)st birthday is assumed uniform after age 1. Special consideration is taken to account for infant mortality.

For the ZIP Code-level life expectancy calculation, it is assumed that postal ZIP Codes share the same boundaries as ZIP Code Census Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs). More information on the relationship between ZIP Codes and ZCTAs can be found at http://www.census.gov/geo/reference/zctas.html. ZIP Code-level data uses three years of mortality data to make robust estimates due to small sample size. Year 2013 ZIP Code life expectancy estimates reflects death records from 2011 through 2013. 2013 is the last year with available mortality data. Death records for ZIP Codes with zero population (like those associated with P.O. Boxes) were assigned to the nearest ZIP Code with population. ZIP Code population for 2000 estimates comes from the Decennial Census. ZIP Code population for 2013 estimates are from the American Community Survey (5-Year Average). ACS estimates are adjusted using Decennial Census data for more accurate population estimates. An adjustment factor was calculated using the ratio between the 2010 Decennial Census population estimates and the 2012 ACS 5-Year (with middle year 2010) population estimates. This adjustment factor is particularly important for ZCTAs with high homeless population (not living in group quarters) where the ACS may underestimate the ZCTA population and therefore underestimate the life expectancy. The ACS provides ZIP Code population by age in five-year age intervals. Single-year age population estimates were calculated by distributing population within an age interval to single-year ages using the county distribution. Counties were assigned to ZIP Codes based on majority land-area.

ZIP Codes in the Bay Area vary in population from over 10,000 residents to less than 20 residents. Traditional life expectancy estimation (like the one used for the regional- and county-level Vital Signs estimates) cannot be used because they are highly inaccurate for small populations and may result in over/underestimation of life expectancy. To avoid inaccurate estimates, ZIP Codes with populations of less than 5,000 were aggregated with neighboring ZIP Codes until the merged areas had a population of more than 5,000. ZIP Code 94103, representing Treasure Island, was dropped from the dataset due to its small population and having no bordering ZIP Codes. In this way, the original 305 Bay Area ZIP Codes were reduced to 217 ZIP Code areas for 2013 estimates. Next, a form of Bayesian random-effects analysis was used which established a prior distribution of the probability of death at each age using the regional distribution. This prior is used to shore up the life expectancy calculations where data were sparse.