EUROPOP2023 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland), covering the time horizon from 2022 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. They are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets consist of the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, which are described as follows:

• no migration – it is assumed that net migration is zero for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is lower due to a 33% reduction in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is higher due to a 33% increase in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower fertility – it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than the baseline assumptions for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower mortality – it is assumed that the mortality rates are lower resulting in an increase of approximately two years in life expectancy at birth by 2070 compared to the baseline assumptions.

In each sensitivity test, the assumptions for the year 2022 were maintained as in the baseline projections. This is because, for that year, there is a combination of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2022), information from the national authorities, and forecasting.

Data are available by single-year time interval, as detailed below:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Additionally, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and each of the five sensitive variants, including also:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators including proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

STP2024 are the short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2023 to 2050, and produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website, as of 06 September 2024, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to the temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp24) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15 to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero for each year within the 2024-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • The 2023 net migration levels remain the same as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

STP2025 are the latest short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2024 to 2050, produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website as of 15 May 2025, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp25) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2025-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • The 2024 net migration levels remain as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

Over the past 75 years, women have generally had a higher life expectancy than men by around 4-6 years. Reasons for this difference include higher susceptibility to childhood diseases among males; higher rates of accidental deaths, conflict-related deaths, and suicide among adult men; and higher prevalence of unhealthy lifestyle habits and chronic illnesses, as well as higher susceptibility to chronic diseases among men. Therefore, men not only have lower life expectancy than women overall, but also throughout each stage of life. Throughout the given period, there were notable dips in life expectancy for both sexes, including a roughly four year drop in 1960 due to China's so-called Great Leap Forward, and a 1.8 year drop due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. Across the world, differences in life expectancy can vary between the sexes by large margins. In countries such as the Nordics, for example, the difference is low due to high-quality healthcare systems and access, as well as high quality diets and lifestyles. In Eastern Europe, however, the difference is over 10 years in Russia and Ukraine due to the war, although the differences were already very pronounced in this region before 2022, in large part driven by unhealthier lifestyles among men.

Global life expectancy at birth has risen significantly since the mid-1900s, from roughly 46 years in 1950 to 73.2 years in 2023. Post-COVID-19 projections There was a drop of 1.7 years during the COVID-19 pandemic, between 2019 and 2021, however, figures resumed upon their previous trajectory the following year due to the implementation of vaccination campaigns and the lower severity of later strains of the virus. By the end of the century it is believed that global life expectancy from birth will reach 82 years, although growth will slow in the coming decades as many of the more-populous Asian countries reach demographic maturity. However, there is still expected to be a wide gap between various regions at the end of the 2100s, with the Europe and North America expected to have life expectancies around 90 years, whereas Sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to be in the low-70s. The Great Leap Forward While a decrease of one year during the COVID-19 pandemic may appear insignificant, this is the largest decline in life expectancy since the "Great Leap Forward" in China in 1958, which caused global life expectancy to fall by almost four years between by 1960. The "Great Leap Forward" was a series of modernizing reforms, which sought to rapidly transition China's agrarian economy into an industrial economy, but mismanagement led to tens of millions of deaths through famine and disease.

Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years), sex and type of projection

Switzerland UCB Projection: Life Expectancy at Birth data was reported at 84.200 Year in 2050. This stayed constant from the previous number of 84.200 Year for 2049. Switzerland UCB Projection: Life Expectancy at Birth data is updated yearly, averaging 82.800 Year from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 84.200 Year in 2050 and a record low of 77.600 Year in 1990. Switzerland UCB Projection: Life Expectancy at Birth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Switzerland – Table CH.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Projected life expectancy at birth by sex and type of projection

Germany FSO Projection: Population: High Life Expectancy & Immigration Trend data was reported at 74,753.000 Person th in 2060. This records a decrease from the previous number of 75,011.000 Person th for 2059. Germany FSO Projection: Population: High Life Expectancy & Immigration Trend data is updated yearly, averaging 80,273.000 Person th from Dec 2014 (Median) to 2060, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 82,039.000 Person th in 2020 and a record low of 74,753.000 Person th in 2060. Germany FSO Projection: Population: High Life Expectancy & Immigration Trend data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Statistics Office Germany. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.G003: Population: Projection: Federal Statistics Office Germany.

The social and financial systems of many nations throughout the world are significantly impacted by life expectancy (LE) models. Numerous studies have pointed out the crucial effects that life expectancy projections will have on societal issues and the administration of the global healthcare system. The computation of life expectancy has primarily entailed building an ordinary life table. However, the life table is limited by its long duration, the assumption of homogeneity of cohorts and censoring. As a result, a robust and more accurate approach is inevitable. In this study, a supervised machine learning model for estimating life expectancy rates is developed. The model takes into consideration health, socioeconomic, and behavioral characteristics by using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to data from 193 UN member states. The effectiveness of the model's prediction is compared to that of the Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) regressors utilized in earlier research. XGBoost attains an MAE and an RMSE of 1.554 and 2.402, respectively outperforming the RF and ANN models that achieved MAE and RMSE values of 7.938 and 11.304, and 3.86 and 5.002, respectively. The overall results of this study support XGBoost as a reliable and efficient model for estimating life expectancy.

Life expectancy by region of birth, sex, age and year

Portugal INE Projection: Life Expectancy: Male: Center data was reported at 87.360 Year in 2080. This records an increase from the previous number of 87.230 Year for 2079. Portugal INE Projection: Life Expectancy: Male: Center data is updated yearly, averaging 83.360 Year from Dec 2017 (Median) to 2080, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.360 Year in 2080 and a record low of 78.280 Year in 2017. Portugal INE Projection: Life Expectancy: Male: Center data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Statistics Portugal. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Portugal – Table PT.G004: Life Expectancy: Projection.

Period and cohort expectation of life in the UK using the principal projection by single year of age 0 to 100.

Assumptions for life expectancy by age, sex and type of projection

Forecast: Female Life Expectancy at 65 in the US 2024 - 2028 Discover more data with ReportLinker!

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Life expectancy at birth, male (years) in United States was reported at 75.8 years in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United States - Life expectancy at birth, male (years) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on September of 2025.

File Description: "Life Expectancy Data.csv" This dataset contains 2,938 entries and 22 columns, covering life expectancy and related health indicators for multiple nations from 2000 to 2015. It includes country-wise data and other economic, social, and health metrics. Column Description: 1. Country – Name of the country. 2. Year – Data year (ranging from 2000 to 2015). 3. Status – Economic classification (Developing/Developed). 4. Life expectancy – Average lifespan in years. 5. Adult Mortality – Probability of death between ages 15-60 per 1,000 individuals. 6. Infant Deaths – Number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births. 7. Alcohol – Per capita alcohol consumption. 8. Percentage Expenditure – Government health expenditure as a percentage of GDP. 9. Hepatitis B – Immunization coverage percentage. 10. Measles – Number of reported measles cases. 11. BMI – Average Body Mass Index. 12. Under-Five Deaths – Mortality rate for children under five. 13. Polio & Diphtheria – Immunization rates. 14. HIV/AIDS – Deaths due to HIV/AIDS per 1,000 individuals. 15. GDP – Gross Domestic Product per capita. 16. Population – Total population of the country. 17. Thinness (1-19 years, 5-9 years) – Percentage of underweight children. 18. Income Composition of Resources– Human development index proxy. 19. Schooling– Average number of years of schooling. Missing Data: Some columns (like Hepatitis B, GDP, Population, Total Expenditure) contain missing values. Further File Information: Total Countries: 193 Years Covered: 2000–2015 Total Entries: 2,938 Missing Data Overview: Some columns have missing values, notably: Hepatitis B (553 missing) GDP (448 missing) Population (652 missing) Total expenditure (226 missing) Income Composition of Resources (167 missing) Schooling (163 missing) Summary Statistics: Life Expectancy:

Range: 36.3 to 89 years Mean: 69.2 years Adult Mortality:

Mean: 165 per 1,000 Max: 723 per 1,000 GDP per Capita:

Mean: $7,483 Max: $119,172 Population:

Mean: ~12.75 million Max: 1.29 billion Education:

Schooling Average: 12 years Max: 20.7 years

Futuristic Scope of this data: For comparative analysis of the 2000–2015 life expectancy dataset with new datasets on the same parametres , you can perform several statistical tests and analytical methods based on different research questions. Below are some key tests and approaches:

1. Trend Analysis (Time-Series) Objective: Identify trends in life expectancy and related indicators over time. Methods: Moving Averages: Smooth fluctuations to detect trends. Linear/Polynomial Regression: Check whether life expectancy follows an increasing or decreasing trend. Time-Series Decomposition: Separate data into trend, seasonality, and residuals.
2. Descriptive Statistics & Comparative Summary Objective: Compare summary statistics between years or groups. Tests/Methods: Mean, Median, Standard Deviation: Compare distributions of life expectancy, GDP, or schooling. Boxplots & Histograms: Show variations over different years or between developing vs. developed countries. Coefficient of Variation (CV): Compare variability in life expectancy across regions.
3. Correlation & Regression Analysis Objective: Examine relationships between variables. Methods: Pearson/Spearman Correlation: Check relationships between life expectancy and GDP, health expenditure, etc. Multiple Linear Regression: Predict life expectancy based on GDP, immunization, and schooling. Multicollinearity (VIF Test): Ensure independent variables are not highly correlated.
4. Hypothesis Testing (Comparative Analysis) Test Objective When to Use? t-Test (Independent Samples) Compare life expectancy between developed & developing nations Two groups (e.g., 2000 vs. 2015, or developed vs. developing) Paired t-Test Compare life expectancy in the same country over two time periods Before/after comparison (e.g., 2000 vs. 2015 for the same country) ANOVA (One-Way) Compare life expectancy across multiple groups More than two groups (e.g., continents or income groups) Chi-Square Test Test if categorical distributions (e.g., immunization coverage) differ over time Categorical variables (e.g., immunization rates vs. year)
5. Clustering & Classification (Machine Learning) Objective: Group countries based on life expectancy patterns. Methods: K-Means Clustering: Identify groups with similar life expectancy trends. Hierarchical Clustering: Create a country similarity tree. Decision Trees/Random Forest: Classify countries based on development status using life expectancy factors.
6. Forecasting Future Trends Objective: Predict life expectancy in future years using historical data. Methods: ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average): Time-series forecasting. Exponential Smoothing: Forecast gradual trends. Machine Learning (LSTM, XGBoost): Predict based on multiple indicators.
7. Comparative Regional Analysis O...

United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth data was reported at 84.700 Year in 2050. This records an increase from the previous number of 84.600 Year for 2049. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth data is updated yearly, averaging 82.400 Year from Jun 2014 (Median) to 2050, with 37 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 84.700 Year in 2050 and a record low of 79.500 Year in 2014. United States US: Life Expectancy at Birth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Comparison of period life expectancy at birth estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

Forecast: Male Life Expectancy at 65 in France 2023 - 2027 Discover more data with ReportLinker!

According to UN world population prospects from 2024, the average life expectancy at birth was projected to stand at around **** years in Hong Kong in 2023, followed by just over **** years in Macao. Life expectancy at birth was forecasted to be approximately **** years in Mongolia as of 2023.