A monthly water-balance model (MWBM) is applied to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States. The statistically downscaled LOCA2 temperature and precipitation projections from 27 GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) are use as input to the water balance model. This data set supports the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (ver. 2). The statistically downscaled data set is: CMIP6-LOCA2: Localized Constructed Analogs (Pierce et al. 2023, bias corrected by a modified version of Livneh et al. 2013) Users interested in the downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the data set home page: LOCA: https://loca.ucsd.edu Bias correction data set: https://cirrus.ucsd.edu/~pierce/nonsplit_precip/ The 27 included GCMs are: ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1 There are 72 simulations in total (ssp245=24, ssp370=23, ssp585=25). While the LOCA2 data set supports multiple realizations per model; one MWBM realization per model is provided herein (predominately r1i1p1f1, except when this realization was not available).

Projections of extreme event metrics and threshold exceedances are produced by analyzing the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 Localized Constructed Analogs (CMIP6-LOCA2) data set. The primary daily temperature and precipitation data are summarized to 36 annual metrics and 4 monthly metrics. This data set includes output from 27 GCMs for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States with partial coverage in Mexico and Canada. To support climate research within and outside the Department of Interior these data are distributed in a variety of formats: individual model grids for all years, gridded climatologies (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and Global Warming Levels +1.5 °C, +2.0 °C, +3.0 °C), and time series spatially averaged to United States county and watershed boundaries (HUC8 from the Watershed Boundary Dataset). Ensemble averages are provided for the Weighted Multi-Model Mean (WMMM) and Multi-Model Mean (MMM) where appropriate. Many of the threshold exceedance variables stem from the Climdex project (https://www.climdex.org), which predominately uses metric units. Additional English-based thresholds were included to support Department of Interior research. There are 72 simulations in total (ssp245=24, ssp370=23, ssp585=25). While the CMIP6-LOCA2 data set supports multiple realizations per model; one realization per model is provided herein (predominately r1i1p1f1, except when this realization was not available). Users interested in the source downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the data set home page: https://loca.ucsd.edu. The 27 included GCMs are: ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 1 inch Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 2 inches Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 3 inches Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 4 inches Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile for non-zero precipitation days Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile for non-zero precipitation days Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile for non-zero precipitation days This layer uses data from the LOCA2 downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

Three different CMIP6-LOCA2 based climate projection data sets are spatially averaged for the contiguous United States counties to provide time series for analysis. The primary data set is the statistically downscaled CMIP6-LOCA2 (Localized Constructed Analogs, v2022051 version, Pierce et al. 2023), which includes temperature and precipitation projections from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) for 27 models under the ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios. The “unsplit Livneh” (Pierce et al. (2021) is used as the training data set for LOCA2, where county spatial summaries are also included here for convenience. The second data set analyzes the daily LOCA2 to produce 36 annual and 4 monthly threshold and extreme event metrics (CMIP6-LOCA2 Thresholds). Many of the threshold exceedance variables stem from the Climdex project (https://www.climdex.org), which predominately uses metric units. Additional English-based thresholds were included to support Department of Interior research. The third data set applies a monthly water-balance model to the LOCA2 projections to simulate the hydrological cycle of runoff, snow, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (CMIP6-LOCA2 MWBM). Users interested in 6 km grids are referred to the home pages of each of the respective sources. Each of these three data sets are spatially average using the 2023 United States Census Bureau TIGER/Line Shapefiles (https://www.census.gov/geographies/mapping-files/time-series/geo/tiger-line-file.html). The NetCDF time series files herein can be linked to the shapefile geometry using the “GEOID field”. The “feature_area” variable can be used to create weighted averages for multiple counties, such creating a weighted state average from the enclosing counties. The 27 included CMIP6 GCMs are: ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This image service provides access to downscaled climate projections for 27 threshold values of temperature for the contiguous United States for 3 SSP climate scenarios from 1950-2100. These services are intended to support analysis of climate exposure for custom geographies and time horizons. Sixteen downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were chosen to be included in a weighted ensemble, optimized for the contiguous United States. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in Understanding CRIS Data.Time RangesPixel values for each variable were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, a modeled history runs from 1950 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series. These annual increments support deriving a temporal average, such as a decadal or thirty-year period centered on a specific year. These time steps should not be used to make predictions about conditions for a specific year, especially at a pixel-level. Climate ScenariosClimate models use estimates of future greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to predict overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are presented here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. The 2-, 3-, or 5- represents the socioeconomic growth model. The 4.5, 7.0, or 8.5 number indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP2-4.5 aligns closest with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement for no greater than 2oC average global warming. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, depicting a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Variable DefinitionsSee the variable list and definitions here. Additional ServicesThree versions of the gridded climate projections are available from CRIS:LOCA2 Ensemble: a statistically downscaled 6-km resolution model. LOCA2 has SSP2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5STAR-ESDM Ensemble: a statistically downscaled 4-km resolution model. STAR-ESDM has SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5NCA5 Blended Ensemble: a merging of LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM ensembles at a 6-km resolution, as was done for the 5th National Climate Assessment (2023). NCA Blended Ensemble has SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5Using the Imagery LayerThe ArcGIS Tiled Imagery Service has a multidimensional structure -- a data cube with variable, SSP, and time dimensions. Methods for accessing the different dimensions will depend on the software/client being used. For more details, please see the CRIS Developer’s Hub along with this instructional StoryMap. To run analysis, first use the multidimensional tools Aggregate or Subset in ArcGIS Pro to copy the necessary data locally.Data ExportData export is enabled on the services if using an ArcGIS client. NetCDF or Zarr files are also available from the NOAA Open Data Distribution system on Amazon Web Services.

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual total precipitation (inches) Annual highest precipitation total for a single day (inches) Annual highest precipitation total over a 5-day period (inches) Annual highest precipitation total over a 10-day period (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 90th percentile (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 95th percentile (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 99th percentile (inches) This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

Three different CMIP6-LOCA2 based climate projection data sets are spatially averaged over the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD) using HU8 and HU10 hydrologic units for the contiguous United States to provide time series for analysis. The primary data set is the statistically downscaled CMIP6-LOCA2 (Localized Constructed Analogs, v20220519 version, Pierce et al. 2023), which includes temperature and precipitation projections from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) for 27 models under the ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios. The “unsplit Livneh” (Pierce et al., 2021) is used as the training data set for LOCA2, where hydrologic unit spatial summaries are also included here for convenience. The second data set analyzes the daily LOCA2 to produce 36 annual and 4 monthly threshold and extreme event metrics (CMIP6-LOCA2 Thresholds). Many of the threshold exceedance variables stem from the Climdex project (https://www.climdex.org), which predominately uses metric units. Additional English-based thresholds were included to support Department of the Interior research. The third data set is from a monthly water-balance model that used the LOCA2 projections to simulate the hydrological cycle of runoff, snow, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (CMIP6-LOCA2 MWBM). Users interested in 6 km grids should refer to the home pages of each of the respective sources. Each of these three data sets are spatially average using the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD) using HU8 and HU10 hydrologic units (https://www.usgs.gov/national-hydrography/watershed-boundary-dataset). The NetCDF time series files herein can be linked to the shapefile geometry using the “huc8” and “huc10” fields in the respective files. The “feature_area” variable can be used to create weighted averages for multiple HUs, such creating a weighted HU2 average from the HU8 units. The 27 included CMIP6 GCMs are: ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 60°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 70°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 75°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 80°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 85°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 90°F This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual total precipitation (inches) Annual highest precipitation total for a single day (inches) Annual highest precipitation total over a 5-day period (inches) Annual highest precipitation total over a 10-day period (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 90th percentile (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 95th percentile (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 99th percentile (inches) This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual total precipitation (inches) Annual highest precipitation total for a single day (inches) Annual highest precipitation total over a 5-day period (inches) Annual highest precipitation total over a 10-day period (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 90th percentile (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 95th percentile (inches) Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 99th percentile (inches) This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

Three different CMIP6-LOCA2 based climate projection data sets are spatially averaged for the contiguous United States using Bureau of Land Management administrative units to provide time series for analysis. The primary data set is the statistically downscaled CMIP6-LOCA2 (Localized Constructed Analogs, v20220519 version, Pierce et al. 2023), which includes temperature and precipitation projections from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) for 27 models under the ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios. The “unsplit Livneh” (Pierce et al., 2021) is used as the training data set for LOCA2, where park unit spatial summaries are also included here for convenience. The second data set analyzes the daily LOCA2 to produce 36 annual and 4 monthly threshold and extreme event metrics (CMIP6-LOCA2 Thresholds). Many of the threshold exceedance variables stem from the Climdex project (https://www.climdex.org), which predominately uses metric units. Additional English-based thresholds are included to support Department of the Interior research. The third data set is from a monthly water-balance model that used LOCA2 projections to simulate the hydrological cycle of runoff, snow, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (CMIP6-LOCA2 MWBM). Users interested in 6 km grids should refer to the home pages of each of the respective sources. Each of these three data sets are spatially average using Bureau of Land Management administrative unit boundaries, being Field Offices (FO), District Offices (DO), and State Offices (SO) which are included herein as GeoPackages. The NetCDF time series files herein can be linked to the GeoPackage geometries using the “ADM_UNIT_CD”, “PARENT_CD”, and “ADMIN_ST” fields in the respective files. The “feature_area” variable can be used to create weighted averages for multiple geometries, such creating a weighted regional average from the enclosing Field Offices.

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 85°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 86°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 90°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 95°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 100°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 105°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 110°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 115°F This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual average daily maximum temperature (°F) Annual average daily temperature (°F) Annual average daily minimum temperature (°F) Annual single highest maximum temperature (°F) Annual single lowest minimum temperature (°F) Annual average summertime (June, July, August) temperature (°F) This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

The Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed projected future change factors for precipitation depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves at 242 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 stations in Florida. The change factors were computed as the ratio of projected future to historical extreme-precipitation depths fitted to extreme-precipitation data from downscaled climate datasets using a constrained maximum likelihood (CML) approach as described in https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225093. The change factors correspond to the period 2020-59 (centered in 2040) or to the period 2050-89 (centered in the year 2070) as compared to the 1966-2005 historical period. A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided that tabulates best models for each CMIP6 downscaled climate dataset. Best models were identified based on how well the models capture the climatology and interannual variability of four climate extreme indices using the Model Climatology Index (MCI) and the Model Variability Index (MVI) of Srivastava and others (2020). The four indices consist of annual maxima consecutive precipitation for durations of 1, 3, 5, and 7 days compared against the same indices computed based on the PRISM and SFWMD gridded precipitation datasets for five climate regions: climate region 1 in Northwest Florida, 2 in North Florida, 3 in North Central Florida, 4 in South Central Florida, and climate region 5 in South Florida. The PRISM dataset is based on the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model interpolation method of Daly and others (2008). The South Florida Water Management District’s (SFWMD) precipitation super-grid is a gridded precipitation dataset developed by modelers at the agency for use in hydrologic modeling (SFWMD, 2005). This dataset is considered by the SFWMD as the best available gridded rainfall dataset for south Florida and was used in addition to PRISM to identify best models in the South Central and South Florida climate regions. Best models were selected based on MCI and MVI evaluated within each individual downscaled dataset. Models were not compared across CMIP6 downscaled climate datasets due to all the best models belonging to a single downscaled climate dataset (LOCA2).

Sonoma Water analyzed 3-km downscaled climate projections for daily rainfall from 13 global circulation models (LOCA2. Pierce et.al., 2023) to produce gridded scalars of the climate model mean of projected 24-hour rainfall depth for Late century (2070-2099), medium-high emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), the 10-year storm. Raw data from LOCA2 (Scripps, 2023), CMIP6 (IPCC, 2021) for Sonoma County, Upper Russian River, and Upper Eel River watershed. For additional information, see the Technical Report at [https://www.sonomawater.org/media/PDF/climate/FutureRainfallDatabaseTechnicalReport.pdf].

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 85°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 86°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 90°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 95°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 100°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 105°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 110°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 115°F This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

Sonoma Water analyzed 3-km downscaled climate projections for daily rainfall from 13 global circulation models (LOCA2. Pierce et.al., 2023) to produce gridded scalars. Those scalars were then applied to NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency rasters for the 24-hour duration storm to produce this raster: the climate model mean of projected 24-hour rainfall depth in inches for mid-century (2046-2075), medium-high emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), the 10-year storm. Raw data from LOCA2 (Scripps, 2023), CMIP6 (IPCC, 2021) for Sonoma County, Upper Russian River, and Upper Eel River watershed. For additional information, see the Technical Report at [https://www.sonomawater.org/media/PDF/climate/FutureRainfallDatabaseTechnicalReport.pdf].

Sonoma Water analyzed 3-km downscaled climate projections for daily rainfall from 13 global circulation models (LOCA2. Pierce et.al., 2023) to produce gridded scalars. Those scalars were then applied to NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency rasters for the 24-hour duration storm to produce this raster: the climate model mean of projected 24-hour rainfall depth in inches for early century (2016-2045), high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), the 25-year storm. Raw data from LOCA2 (Scripps, 2023), CMIP6 (IPCC, 2021) for Sonoma County, Upper Russian River, and Upper Eel River watershed. For additional information, see the Technical Report at [https://www.sonomawater.org/media/PDF/climate/FutureRainfallDatabaseTechnicalReport.pdf].

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Cooling degree (F) days Heating degree (F) days This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are:Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 1 inch Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 2 inches Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 3 inches Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 4 inches Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile for non-zero precipitation days Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile for non-zero precipitation days Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile for non-zero precipitation days This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below.For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future.GeographiesThis layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds.County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas.HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time RangesProjected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade.Climate ScenariosClimate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data ExportExporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.