Population figures over a 25-year period, by single year of age and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.

Population figures over a 25-year period, including births, deaths and migration by sex for regions and local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.

ESRI Population Projections by Local Authority. Published by Department of Housing, Local Government, and Heritage. Available under the license Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike 4.0 (CC-BY-SA-4.0).Population projection by scenario, year of age and local authority, for the 4 scenarios described in the project methodology for years 2017-2040. https://www.esri.ie/publications/regional-demographics-and-structural-housing-demand-at-a-county-level

The 4 scenarios are:

Baseline/Business as usual – based on medium term projections for the economy with an underlying assumption that net inwards migration would converge to 15,000 p.a. by 2024 and remain at that level throughout the projection horizon.

50:50 City – based on a similar outlook in terms of net inwards migration but whereby population growth is distributed in line with the objectives of the National Planning Framework (See National Policy Objectives 1a and 2a of https://npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf)

High Migration – assumes that net inwards migration stays at an elevated level throughout the projection horizon (net inwards migration of 30,000 p.a)

Low Migration - assumes that net inwards migration falls to net inwards migration of 5,000 by 2022 before converging back to the business as usual levels (i.e. net inwards migration of 15,000 p.a.) by 2027 and remaining at that level thereafter....

This dataset provides the components of change involved in the calculation of the population projections for local authorities in Wales. Data cover the change between each successive projection year and relate to the change from the middle of each year to the middle of the following year. The first year's data represent the change from the base year of mid-2018 to mid-2019, through the projection period to show the change for mid-2042 to mid-2043. This is the fifth set of population projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales. Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

Office for National Statistics’ national and subnational total mid-year population estimates for England and Wales for a selection of administrative and census areas by sex for 2012 to 2020. The data is source is from ONS Population Estimates. Find out more about this dataset here.

This data is issued at (BGC) Generalised (20m) boundary type for:

Country, Region, Upper Tier Local Authority (2021), Lower Tier Local Authority (2021), Middle Super Output Area (2011), and Lower Super Output Area (2011).

If you require the data at full resolution boundaries, or if you are interested in the range of statistical data that Esri UK make available in ArcGIS Online please enquire at dataenquiries@esriuk.com.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces annual estimates of the resident population of England and Wales at 30 June every year. The most authoritative population estimates come from the census, which takes place every 10 years in the UK. Population estimates from a census are updated each year to produce mid-year population estimates (MYEs), which are broken down by local authority, sex and age. More detailed information on the methods used to generate the mid-year population estimates can be found here.

For further information on the usefulness of the data and guidance on small area geographies please see here.The currency of this data is 2021.

Methodology

The total and 5-year breakdown population counts are reproduced directly from the source data. The age range estimates have been calculated from the published estimates by single year of age. The percentages are calculated using the gender specific (total, female or male) total population count as a denominator except in the case of the male and female total population where the total population is used to give female and male proportions.

This dataset will be updated annually, in two releases.

Creator: Office for National Statistics. Aggregated age groupings and percentages calculated by Esri UK._The data services available from this page are derived from the National Data Service. The NDS delivers thousands of open national statistical indicators for the UK as data-as-a-service. Data are sourced from major providers such as the Office for National Statistics, Public Health England and Police UK and made available for your area at standard geographies such as counties, districts and wards and census output areas. This premium service can be consumed as online web services or on-premise for use throughout the ArcGIS system.Read more about the NDS.

Household formation by scenario, local authority and year, for the 4 scenarios described in the project methodology for the years 2017-2040 https://www.esri.ie/publications/regional-demographics-and-structural-housing-demand-at-a-county-level The 4 scenarios are: Baseline/Business as usual - based on medium term projections for the economy with an underlying assumption that net inwards migration would converge to 15,000 p.a. by 2024 and remain at that level throughout the projection horizon. 50:50 City - based on a similar outlook in terms of net inwards migration but whereby population growth is distributed in line with the objectives of the National Planning Framework (See National Policy Objectives 1a and 2a of https://npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf) High Migration - assumes that net inwards migration stays at an elevated level throughout the projection horizon (net inwards migration of 30,000 p.a) Low Migration - assumes that net inwards migration falls to net inwards migration of 5,000 by 2022 before converging back to the business as usual levels (i.e. net inwards migration of 15,000 p.a.) by 2027 and remaining at that level thereafter.

Projected indicators included are derived from the published 2018-based subnational population projections for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland up to the year 2043. The indicators are the projected percentage of the population aged 65 years and over, 85 years and over, 0 to 15 years, 16 to 64 years, 16 years to State Pension age, State Pension age and over, median age and the Old Age Dependency Ratio (the number of people of State Pension age per 1000 of those aged 16 years to below State Pension age).

This dataset has been produced by the Ageing Analysis Team for inclusion in the subnational ageing tool, which was published on July 20, 2020 (see link in Related datasets). The tool is interactive, and users can compare latest and projected measures of ageing for up to four different areas through selection on a map or from a drop-down menu.

Note on data sources: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland independently publish subnational population projections and the data available here are a compilation of these datasets. The ONS publish national level data for the UK, England, Wales and England & Wales, which has been included. National level data for Scotland and Northern Ireland have been taken from their subnational population projections datasets.

The data collection contains population projections for UK ethnic groups and all local area by age (single year of age up to 100+) and sex. Included in the data set are also input data to the cohort component model that was used to project populations into the future-fertility rates, mortality rates, international migration flows and internal migration probabilities. Also included in data set are output data: Number of deaths, births and internal migrants. All data included are for the years 2011 to 2061. We have produced two ethnic population projections for UK local authorities, based on information on 2011 Census ethnic populations and 2010-2011-2012 ethnic components. Both projections align fertility and mortality assumptions to ONS assumptions. Where they differ is in the migration assumptions. In LEEDS L1 we employ internal migration rates for 2001 to 2011, including periods of boom and bust. We use a new assumption about international migration anticipating that the UK may leave the EU (BREXIT). In LEEDS L2 we use average internal migration rates for the 5 year period 2006-11 and the official international migration flow assumptions with a long term balance of +185 thousand per annum.

This project aims to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition in the United Kingdom's population at national and sub-national levels. The ethnic transition is the change in population composition from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. In the decade 2001-2011 the UK population grew strongly as a result of high immigration, increased fertility and reduced mortality. Both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Leeds University estimated the growth or decline in the sixteen ethnic groups making up the UK's population in 2001. The 2011 Census results revealed that both teams had over-estimated the growth of the White British population and under-estimated the growth of the ethnic minority populations. The wide variation between our local authority projected populations in 2011 and the Census suggested inaccurate forecasting of internal migration. We propose to develop, working closely with ONS as our first external partner, fresh estimates of mid-year ethnic populations and their components of change using new data on the later years of the decade and new methods to ensure the estimates agree in 2011 with the Census. This will involve using population accounting theory and an adjustment technique known as iterative proportional fitting to generate a fully consistent set of ethnic population estimates between 2001 and 2011.

We will study, at national and local scales, the development of demographic rates for ethnic group populations (fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration). The ten year time series of component summary indicators and age-specific rates will provide a basis for modelling future assumptions for projections. We will, in our main projection, align the assumptions to the ONS 2012-based principal projection. The national assumptions will need conversion to ethnic groups and to local scale. The ten years of revised ethnic-specific component rates will enable us to study the relationships between national and local demographic trends. In addition, we will analyse a consistent time series of local authority internal migration. We cannot be sure, at this stage, how the national-local relationships for each ethnic group will be modelled but we will be able to test our models using the time series.

Of course, all future projections of the population are uncertain. We will therefore work to measure the uncertainty of component rates. The error distributions can be used to construct probability distributions of future populations via stochastic projections so that we can define confidence intervals around our projections. Users of projections are always interested in the impact of the component assumptions on future populations. We will run a set of reference projections to estimate the magnitude and direction of impact of international migrations assumptions (net effect of immigration less emigration), of internal migration assumptions (the net effect of in-migration less out-migration), of fertility assumptions compared with replacement level, of mortality assumptions compared with no change and finally the effect of the initial age distribution (i.e. demographic potential).

The outputs from the project will be a set of technical reports on each aspect of the research, journal papers submitted for peer review and a database of projection inputs and outputs available to users via the web. The demographic inputs will be subject to quality assurance by Edge Analytics, our second external partner. They will also help in disseminating these inputs to local government users who want to use them in their own ethnic projections. In sum, the project will show how a wide range of secondary data sources can be used in theoretically refined demographic...

Excel Age-Range creator for Office for National Statistics (ONS) Mid year population estimates (MYE) covering each year between 1999 and 2013

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These files take into account the revised estimates for 2002-2010 released in April 2013 down to Local Authority level and the post 2011 estimates based on the Census results. Scotland and Northern Ireland data has not been revised, so Great Britain and United Kingdom totals comprise the original data for these plus revised England and Wales figures.

This Excel based tool enables users to query the single year of age raw data so that any age range can easily be calculated without having to carry out often complex, and time consuming formulas that could also be open to human error. Simply select the lower and upper age range for both males and females and the spreadsheet will return the total population for the range. Please adhere to the terms and conditions of supply contained within the file.

Tip: You can copy and paste the rows you are interested in to another worksheet by using the filters at the top of the columns and then select all by pressing Ctrl+A. Then simply copy and paste the cells to a new location.

ONS Mid year population estimates

Open Excel tool (London Boroughs, Regions and National, 1999-2013)

Also available is a custom-age tool for all geographies in the UK. Open the tool for all UK geographies (local authority and above) for: 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.

This full MYE dataset by single year of age (SYA) age and gender is available as a Datastore package at the link below.

Ward Level Population estimates

Excel single year of age population tool for 2002 to 2013 for all wards in London.

Office for National Statistics’ national and subnational mid-year population estimates for England and Wales for a selection of administrative and census areas by age (in 5 year age brackets) for 2012 to 2020. The data is source is from ONS Population Estimates. Find out more about this dataset here.This data is issued at (BGC) Generalised (20m) boundary type for:Country,Region,Upper Tier Local Authority (2021),Lower Tier Local Authority (2021),Middle Super Output Area (2011), andLower Super Output Area (2011).If you require the data at full resolution boundaries, or if you are interested in the range of statistical data that Esri UK make available in ArcGIS Online please enquire at content@esriuk.com.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces annual estimates of the resident population of England and Wales at 30 June every year. The most authoritative population estimates come from the census, which takes place every 10 years in the UK. Population estimates from a census are updated each year to produce mid-year population estimates (MYEs), which are broken down by local authority, sex and age. More detailed information on the methods used to generate the mid-year population estimates can be found here.For further information on the usefulness of the data and guidance on small area geographies please see here.The currency of this data is 2021.MethodologyThe total and 5-year breakdown population counts are reproduced directly from the source data. The age range estimates have been calculated from the published estimates by single year of age. The percentages are calculated using the gender specific (total, female or male) total population count as a denominator except in the case of the male and female total population where the total population is used to give female and male proportions.This dataset will be updated annually, in two releases.Creator: Office for National Statistics. Aggregated age groupings and percentages calculated by Esri UK._The data services available from this page are derived from the National Data Service. The NDS delivers thousands of open national statistical indicators for the UK as data-as-a-service. Data are sourced from major providers such as the Office for National Statistics, Public Health England and Police UK and made available for your area at standard geographies such as counties, districts and wards and census output areas. This premium service can be consumed as online web services or on-premise for use throughout the ArcGIS system.Read more about the NDS.

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration.

Source agency: Welsh Government

Designation: National Statistics

Language: English

Alternative title: Local Authority Population Projections for Wales

Office for National Statistics’ national and subnational mid-year population estimates for England and Wales for a selection of administrative and census areas by additional useful age for 2012 to 2020. Age categories include: 0-15, 5-11, 11-15, 16-17, 16-29, 16-64, 18-24, 30-44, 45-64, 65+ & 70+. The data is source is from ONS Population Estimates. Find out more about this dataset here.

This data is issued at (BGC) Generalised (20m) boundary type for:

Country, Region, Upper Tier Local Authority (2021), Lower Tier Local Authority (2021), Middle Super Output Area (2011), and Lower Super Output Area (2011).

If you require the data at full resolution boundaries, or if you are interested in the range of statistical data that Esri UK make available in ArcGIS Online please enquire at dataenquiries@esriuk.com.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces annual estimates of the resident population of England and Wales at 30 June every year. The most authoritative population estimates come from the census, which takes place every 10 years in the UK. Population estimates from a census are updated each year to produce mid-year population estimates (MYEs), which are broken down by local authority, sex and age. More detailed information on the methods used to generate the mid-year population estimates can be found here.

For further information on the usefulness of the data and guidance on small area geographies please see here.The currency of this data is 2021.

Methodology

The total and 5-year breakdown population counts are reproduced directly from the source data. The age range estimates have been calculated from the published estimates by single year of age. The percentages are calculated using the gender specific (total, female or male) total population count as a denominator except in the case of the male and female total population where the total population is used to give female and male proportions.

This dataset will be updated annually, in two releases.

Creator: Office for National Statistics. Aggregated age groupings and percentages calculated by Esri UK._The data services available from this page are derived from the National Data Service. The NDS delivers thousands of open national statistical indicators for the UK as data-as-a-service. Data are sourced from major providers such as the Office for National Statistics, Public Health England and Police UK and made available for your area at standard geographies such as counties, districts and wards and census output areas. This premium service can be consumed as online web services or on-premise for use throughout the ArcGIS system.Read more about the NDS.

National and subnational mid-year population estimates for England and Wales by administrative area, age and sex (including components of population change, median age and population density).

These revised 2004-based long term Subnational Population Projections for England (SNPP) were published on 27 September 2007 and replace those published on 12 October 2006. They give an indication of future trends in population for the period 2005 - 2029 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Publisher: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Geographies: Local Authority District (LAD), County/Unitary Authority, Government Office Region (GOR), National, Strategic Health Authority (SHA) Geographic coverage: England Time coverage: 2005-2029 Type of data: Modelled data

Trend-based projections

Four variants of trend-based population projections and corresponding household projections are currently available to download. These are labelled as High, Central and Low and differ in their domestic migration assumptions beyond 2017. The economic crisis has been linked to a fall in migration from London to the rest of the UK and a rise in flows from the UK to London. The variants reflect a range of scenarios relating to possible return to pre-crisis trends in migration.

High: In this scenario, the changes to domestic migration flows are considered to be structural and recent patterns persist regardless of an improving economic outlook.

Low: Changes to domestic migration patterns are assumed to be transient and return to pre-crisis trends beyond 2018. Domestic outflow propensities increase by 10% and inflows decrease by 6% as compared to the High variant.

Central: Assumes recent migration patterns are partially transient and partially structural. Beyond 2018, domestic outlow propensities increase by 5% and inflows by 3% as compared to the High variant.

Central - incorporating 2012-based fertility assumptions: Uses the same migration assumptions as the Central projeciton above, but includes updated age-specific-fertility-rates based on 2011 birth data and future fertility trends taken from ONS's 2012-based National Population Projections. The impact of these changes is to increase fertility by ~10% in the long term.

GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central
Borough: Central - incorporating 2012-based NPP fertility assumptions
Ward: Central

GLA 2013 round trend-based household projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central

GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections:
Borough: Central

Updates:
Update 03-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Methodology
Update 04-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Results
Data to accompany Update 04-2014
Update 12-2014: GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections
Data to accompany Update 12-2014

Housing linked projections

Two variants of housing-linked projections are available based on housing trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). The two variants are produced using different models to constrain the population to available dwellings. These are referred to as the DCLG-based model and the Capped Household Size model. These models will be explained in greater detail in an upcoming Intelligence Unit Update.

Projection Models:

DCLG-Based Model

This model makes use of Household Representative Rates (HRR) from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections to convert populations by age and gender into households. The models uses iteration to find a population that yields a total number of households that matches the number of available household spaces implied by the development data. This iterative process involves modulating gross migration flows between each London local authority and UK regions outside of London. HRRs beyond 2021 have been extrapolated forward by the GLA. The model also produces a set of household projections consistent with the population outputs.

Capped Household Size Model

This model was introduced to provide an alternative projection based on the SHLAA housing trajectories. While the projections given by the DCLG-Based Model appear realistic for the majority of London, there are concerns that it could lead to under projection for certain local authorities, namely those in Outer London where recent population growth has primarily been driven by rising household sizes. For these boroughs, the Capped Household Size model provides greater freedom for the population to follow the growth patterns shown in the Trend-based projections, but caps average household size at 2012 levels. For boroughs where the DCLG-based SHLAA model gave higher results than the Trend-based model, the projections follow the results of the former.

Household projections are not available from this model.

Development assumptions:

SHLAA housing data

These projections incorporate development data from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) database to determine populations for 2012 onwards. Development trajectories are derived from this data for four phases: 2015-20, 2021-25, 2026-30, and 2031-36. For 2012-14, data is taken from the 2009 SHLAA trajectories. No data is included in the database for beyond 2036 and the 2031-36 trajectories are extended forward to 2041. This data was correct as at February 2014 and may be updated in future. Assumed development figures will not necessarily match information in the SHLAA report as some data on estate renewals is not included in the database at this time.

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based
Borough: capped SHLAA-based
Ward: SHLAA-based
Ward: capped SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based household projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based ethnic group population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

Zero-development projections

The GLA produces so-called zero-development projections for London that assume that future dwelling stocks remain unchanged. These projections can be used in conjunction with the SHLAA-based projections to give an indication of the modelled impact of the assumed development. Variants are produced consistent with the DCLG-based and Capped Household Size projections. Due to the way the models operate, the former assumes no development beyond 2011 and the latter no development after 2012.

GLA 2013 round zero development population projections:
Borough: DCLG zero development
Borough: capped zero development
Ward: DCLG zero development
Ward: capped zero development

Frequently asked question: which projection should I use?

The GLA Demography Team recommends using the Capped Household Size SHLAA projection for most purposes. The main exception to this is for work estimating future housing need, where it is more appropriate to use the trend-based projections.

The custom-age population tool is here.

To access the GLA's full range of demographic projections please click here.

IMPORTANT NOTE: These projections have been superceded, please see https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ for the latest GLA projections. The 2013 round of projections featured a large number of variants including: Three variants of trend-based projection (Central, High, Low) that used different migration assumptions and which were used to inform the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) and Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP). A further trend-based projection that took the migration assumptions from the Central projection, but updated the fertility assumptions to be in line with assumptions taken from ONS’s 2012-based National Population Projections. Two variants of development-linked projections using development trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These variants make use of different methodologies to incorporate development data into the population projections. Two Updates were released as part of the 2013 round. These detailed results and methodologies for the initial projection releases. The capped-household size model was released subsequently in response to demand from colleagues in some local authorities. An explanation of this and other methodologies is presented in the Technical Note. For general use, the GLA advises the use of the SHLAA-based projection using the capped household size model. This gives rise to a broadly similar total population for London as the Central trend-based projection used in the SHMA/FALP, but with a geographical distribution of population growth that better reflects likely future development. For the 2013 round, the decision was made to release the results of the ward-based projections by single year of age and gender, rather than in five-year age bands as in previous years. This change was to allow users to aggregate to the age bands of interest to them. It is important to note that the provision of these projections by single year of age and at unit level is to facilitate their subsequent use and is not an indication of their level of accuracy. Users should be aware that small area population estimates and projections are subject to high levels of uncertainty and potential inaccuracy. The custom-age population tool is here .

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics If you have questions or feedback about this web service, please email geography@abs.gov.au. To subscribe to updates about ABS web services and geospatial products, please complete this form. For information about how the ABS manages any personal information you provide view the ABS privacy policy.

Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

Use this interactive tool to compare the projected resident populations of selected areas and how they may change over time. Data are available for regions, counties and Local Authorities in England. These pyramids accompany the 2012-based Subnational Population Projections release. Projections are not forecasts and show what the population will be if recent trends continue. They do not take into account any policy changes that have not yet occurred or not yet had an impact on observed trends.

Long term population projections by sex and single year of age for York Local Authority area.

These unrounded estimates are published based on ONS estimates designed to enable and encourage further calculations and analysis. However, the estimates should not be taken to be accurate to the level of detail provided. More information on the accuracy of the estimates is available in the Quality and Methodology document

The estimates are produced using a variety of data sources and statistical models, including some statistical disclosure control methods, and small estimates should not be taken to refer to particular individuals. The estimated resident population of an area includes all those people who usually live there, regardless of nationality. Arriving international migrants are included in the usually resident population if they remain in the UK for at least a year. Emigrants are excluded if they remain outside the UK for at least a year. This is consistent with the United Nations definition of a long-term migrant. Armed forces stationed outside of the UK are excluded. Students are taken to be usually resident at their term time address.

The population estimates reflect boundaries in place as of the reference year.

Please note that “age” 999 comprises data for ages 90 and above.

Source and Licence:

Adapted from data from the Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.

Population estimates measuring resident population in each local area and structure of the population in these areas by age and sex Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS): Population Estimates Unit Publisher: Neighbourhood Statistics Geographies: Local Authority District (LAD), County/Unitary Authority, Government Office Region (GOR), National Geographic coverage: England and Wales Time coverage: 2001 to 2008 Type of data: Modelled data