This report was released in September 2010. However, recent demographic data is available on the datastore - you may find other datasets on the Datastore useful such as: GLA Population Projections, National Insurance Number Registrations of Overseas Nationals, Births by Birthplace of Mother, Births and Fertility Rates, Office for National Statistics (ONS) Population Estimates

FOCUSONLONDON2010:POPULATIONANDMIGRATION

London is the United Kingdom’s only city region. Its population of 7.75 million is 12.5 per cent of the UK population living on just 0.6 per cent of the land area. London’s average population density is over 4,900 persons per square kilometre, this is ten times that of the second most densely populated region.

Between 2001 and 2009 London’s population grew by over 430 thousand, more than any other region, accounting for over 16 per cent of the UK increase.

This report discusses in detail the population of London including Population Age Structure, Fertility and Mortality, Internal Migration, International Migration, Population Turnover and Churn, and Demographic Projections.

Population and Migration report is the first release of the Focus on London 2010-12 series. Reports on themes such as Income, Poverty, Labour Market, Skills, Health, and Housing are also available.

REPORT:

Read the full report in PDF format.

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PRESENTATION:

To access an interactive presentation about population changes in London click the link to see it on Prezi.com

DATA:

To access a spreadsheet with all the data from the Population and Migration report click on the image below.

Report data

MAP:

To enter an interactive map showing a number of indicators discussed in the Population and Migration report click on the image below.

Interactive Maps

FACTS:

● Top five boroughs for babies born per 10,000 population in 2008-09:

1. Newham – 244.4
2. Barking and Dagenham – 209.3
3. Hackney – 205.7
4. Waltham Forest – 202.7
5. Greenwich – 196.2

-32. Havering – 116.8

-33. City of London – 47.0

● In 2009, Barnet overtook Croydon as the most populous London borough. Prior to this Croydon had been the largest since 1966

● Population per hectare of land used for Domestic building and gardens is highest in Tower Hamlets

● In 2008-09, natural change (births minus deaths) led to 78,000 more Londoners compared with only 8,000 due to migration. read more about this or click play on the chart below to reveal how regional components of populations change have altered over time.

UK residents by individual countries of birth and citizenship, broken down by UK country, local authority, unitary authority, metropolitan and London boroughs, and counties. Estimates from the Annual Population Survey.

The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant.

Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service.

The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions.

All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment.

These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here.

Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days.

For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post.

The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data).

Documentation page

Back to projections homepage

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by ethnic group and by age of arrival in the UK. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

Area type

Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.

For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.

Lower tier local authorities

Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. There are 309 lower tier local authorities in England made up of 181 non-metropolitan districts, 59 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan districts and 33 London boroughs (including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities.

Coverage

Census 2021 statistics are published for the whole of England and Wales. However, you can choose to filter areas by:

• country - for example, Wales
• region - for example, London
• local authority - for example, Cornwall
• health area – for example, Clinical Commissioning Group
• statistical area - for example, MSOA or LSOA

Ethnic group

The ethnic group that the person completing the census feels they belong to. This could be based on their culture, family background, identity or physical appearance.

Respondents could choose one out of 19 tick-box response categories, including write-in response options.

Age of arrival in the UK

The date a person last arrived to live in the UK and their age. Arrival dates do not include returning from short trips away from the UK.

Age of arrival only applies to usual residents not born in the UK. It does not include usual residents born in the UK who have emigrated and since returned. These are recorded in the category “born in the UK”.

National and subnational mid-year population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries by administrative area, age and sex (including components of population change, median age and population density).

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify non-UK born short-term residents in England and Wales by sex. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

Sex

This is the sex recorded by the person completing the census. The options were “Female” and “Male”.

Area type

Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.

For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.

Lower Tier Local Authorities

Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. In England there are 309 lower tier local authorities. These are made up of non-metropolitan districts (181), unitary authorities (59), metropolitan districts (36) and London boroughs (33, including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities. Of these local authority types, only non-metropolitan districts are not additionally classified as upper tier local authorities.

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by age of arrival in the UK. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

This update provides unrounded migration estimates. The accompanying data are provided at Country level down to Output Areas.

Age of arrival in the UK

The date a person last arrived to live in the UK and their age. Arrival dates do not include returning from short trips away from the UK.

Age of arrival only applies to usual residents not born in the UK. It does not include usual residents born in the UK who have emigrated and since returned. These are recorded in the category “born in the UK”.

Area type

Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.

For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.

Lower Tier Local Authorities

Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. In England there are 309 lower tier local authorities. These are made up of non-metropolitan districts (181), unitary authorities (59), metropolitan districts (36) and London boroughs (33, including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities. Of these local authority types, only non-metropolitan districts are not additionally classified as upper tier local authorities.

The latest population figures produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 23 June 2016 show that an estimated 531,200 people live in Bradford District – an increase of 3,000 people (0.6%) since the previous year. Bradford District is the fourth largest metropolitan district (in terms of population) in England, after Birmingham, Sheffield and Leeds although the District’s population growth is lower than other major cities. In the last year Bradford’s population has grown at a rate of 0.6% which is faster than the previous three years when the population increased by 0.3% each year. The increase in the District’s population is largely due to “natural change”- there have been around 3,500 more births than deaths, although this has been balanced by a larger number of people leaving Bradford to live in other parts of the UK than coming to live here and a lower number of international migrants. In 2014/15 the net internal migration was -2,900 and the net international migration was 2,500. A large proportion of Bradford’s population is dominated by the younger age groups. More than one-quarter (29%) of the District’s population is aged less than 20 and nearly seven in ten people are aged less than 50. Bradford has the highest percentage of the under 16 population in England after the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham and Slough Borough Council. The population of Bradford is ethnically diverse. The largest proportion of the district’s population (63.9%) identifies themselves as White British. The district has the largest proportion of people of Pakistani ethnic origin (20.3%) in England. The largest religious group in Bradford is Christian (45.9% of the population). Nearly one quarter of the population (24.7%) are Muslim. Just over one fifth of the district’s population (20.7%) stated that they had no religion. There are 199, 296 households in the Bradford district. Most households own their own home (29.3% outright and 35.7% with a mortgage). The percentage of privately rented households is 18.1%. 29.6% of households were single person households. Information from the Annual Population Survey in June 2016 found that Bradford has 214,000 people aged 16-64 in employment. At 65.1% this is significantly lower than the national rate (74.0%) 111,100 (around 1 in 3 people) aged 16-64, are not in work. The claimant count rate is 2.7% which is higher than the regional and national averages. Skill levels are improving with 26.8% of 16 to 74 year olds educated to degree level. 16.1% of the district’s employed residents work in retail/wholesale. The percentage of people working in manufacturing has continued to decrease from 13.4% in 2009 to 13% in 2015. This is still higher than the average for Great Britain (8.3%)

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Excel age range creator for GLA Projections data

This Excel based tool enables users to query the raw single year of age data so that any age range can easily be calculated without having to carry out often complex, and time consuming formulas that could also be open to human error. Each year the GLA demography team produce sets of population projections. On this page each of these datasets since 2009 can be accessed, though please remember that the older versions have been superceded. From 2012, data includes population estimates and projections between 2001 and 2041 for each borough plus Central London (Camden, City of London, Kensington & Chelsea, and Westminster), Rest of Inner Boroughs, Inner London, Outer London and Greater London.

The full raw data by single year of age (SYA) and gender are available as Datastore packages at the links below.

How to use the tool: Simply select the lower and upper age range for both males and females (starting in cell C3) and the spreadsheet will return the total population for the range.

Tip: You can copy and paste the boroughs you are interested in to another worksheet by clicking: Edit then Go To (or Control + G), then Special, and Visible cells only. Then simply copy and 'paste values' of the cells to a new location.

Warning: The ethnic group and ward files are large (around 35MB), and may take some time to download depending on your bandwidth.

Find out more about GLA population projections on the GLA Demographic Projections page

BOROUGH PROJECTIONS

GLA 2009 Round London Plan Population Projections (January 2010) (SUPERSEDED)

GLA 2009 Round (revised) London Plan Population Projections (August 2010) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2009 Round (revised) SHLAA Population Projections (August 2010) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2010 Round SHLAA Population Projections (February 2011) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2011 Round SHLAA Population Projections, High Fertility (December 2011) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2011 Round SHLAA Population Projections, Standard Fertility (January 2012) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 Round SHLAA Population Projections, (December 2012)(SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 Round Trend Based Population Projections, (December 2012) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 Round SHLAA Borough Projections incorporating DCLG 2011 household formation rates, (June 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2013 Round Trend Based Population Projections - High (December 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2013 Round Trend Based Population Projections - Central (December 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2013 Round Trend Based Population Projections - Low (December 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2013 Round SHLAA Based Population Projections (February 2014) (SUPERCEDED) Spreadsheet now includes national comparator data from ONS.

GLA 2013 Round SHLAA Based Capped Population Projections (March 2014) (SUPERCEDED) Spreadsheet includes national comparator data from ONS.

GLA 2014 Round Trend-based, Short-Term Migration Scenario Population Projections (April 2015) Spreadsheet includes national comparator data from ONS.

GLA 2014 Round Trend-based, Long-Term Migration Scenario Population Projections (April 2015) Spreadsheet includes national comparator data from ONS.

GLA 2014 Round SHLAA DCLG Based Long Term Migration Scenario Population Projections (April 2015) Spreadsheet includes national comparator data from ONS.

GLA 2014 Round SHLAA Capped Household Size Model Short Term Migration Scenario Population Projections (April 2015) Spreadsheet includes national comparator data from ONS. This is the recommended file to use.

WARD PROJECTIONS

GLA 2008 round (High) Ward Projections (March 2009) (SUPERSEDED)

GLA 2009 round (revised) London Plan Ward Projections (August 2010) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2010 round SHLAA Ward Projections (February 2011) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2011 round SHLAA Standard Ward Projections (January 2012) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2011 round SHLAA High Ward Projections (January 2012) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 round SHLAA based Ward Projections (March 2013) (XLS) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 round SHLAA Ward Projections (March 2013) (XLS) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2013 round SHLAA Ward Projections (March 2014) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2013 round SHLAA Capped Ward Projections (March 2014) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2014 round SHLAA Capped Household Size Model Short Term Migration Scenario Ward Projections (April 2015) This is the recommended file to use.

ETHNIC GROUP PROJECTIONS FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES

GLA 2012 Round SHLAA Ethnic Group Borough Projections - Interim (May 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 Round Trend Based Ethnic Group Borough Projections - Interim (May 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 Round SHLAA Based Ethnic Group Borough Projections - Final (Nov 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2012 Round Trend Based Ethnic Group Borough Projections - Final (Nov 2013) (SUPERCEDED)

GLA 2013 Round SHLAA Capped Ethnic Group Borough Projections (August 2014)

IMPORTANT NOTE: The 2016-based TREND projections are now available. For housing-led projections the Interim 2015-based projections remain the most current. The housing-led projections will be updated when the 2017 SHLAA is published in Autumn 2017. see https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ for the latest trend GLA projections. From January 2017 the GLA has revised its naming convention for it's population projections. Projections will now be labelled based on the latest mid-year estimate data which informs the projection. As such this set of projections is a 2015-based projection. This set of projections is labelled ‘interim’ in anticipation of a revised set of 2015-based projections which will inform the London Plan. Once released, in spring 2017, those projections will supersede this set. Four variants of local authority level population projections, one ward-level projection and one msoa-level projection are currenty available: Borough Central Trend-based projection (using a 10-year migration scenario) Short-term Trend-based projection (using a 5-year migration scenario) Long-term Trend-based projection (using a 14-year migration scenario) Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA (consistent with the central trend model) Small Area Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model Documentation Methodology papers for all of the projections are availble on the documentation page for this dataset. Reults Updates for the Trend and Housing-led projections are available on the documentation page. A series of ward projection profiles are also available to dowload. Notes A tool detailing the relationships between the various projections and variants can be found here . These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.