According to the forecast, house prices in London are expected to fall slightly in 2024, followed by a recovery in the following years. The decline can be explained with the cost of living crisis and the dramatic increase in borrowing costs. As the economy recovers in the next five-years, house prices for mainstream properties are forecast to rise by almost 14 percent. In 2023, the average house price in London ranged between 350,000 British pounds and 1.4 million British pounds, depending on the borough. Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Newham, and Croydon were some of the most affordable boroughs to buy a house.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

According to the forecast, the North East and Wales are the regions in the United Kingdom estimated to see the highest overall growth in house prices over the five-year period between 2024 and 2028. Just behind are North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Scotland, which are forecast to see house prices increase by 20.2 percent over the five-year period. In London, house prices are expected to rise by 13.9 percent.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of house sales in the UK spiked, followed by a period of decline. In 2023, the housing market slowed notably, and in September 2024, transaction volumes fell below 50,000. House sales volumes are affected by a number of factors, including mortgage rates, house prices, supply, demand, as well as the overall health of the market. The economic uncertainty and rising unemployment rates has also affected the homebuyer sentiment of Brits. How have UK house prices developed over the past 10 years? House prices in the UK have increased year-on-year since 2015, except for a brief period of decline in the second half of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. That is based on the 12-month percentage change of the UK house price index. At the peak of the housing boom in 2022, prices soared by nearly 14 percent. The decline that followed was mild, at under three percent. The cooling in the market was more pronounced in England and Wales, where the average house price declined in 2023. Conversely, growth in Scotland and Northern Ireland continued. What is the impact of mortgage rates on house sales? For a long period, mortgage rates were at record-low, allowing prospective homebuyers to take out a 10-year loan at a mortgage rate of less than three percent. In the last quarter of 2021, this period came to an end as the Bank of England rose the bank lending rate to contain the spike in inflation. Naturally, the higher borrowing costs affected consumer sentiment, urging many homebuyers to place their plans on hold and leading to a drop in sales.

The volume of residential property sales in London dropped substantially after 2007 as a result of the global financial crisis. Though housing transactions gradually increased until 2014, sales volumes remained shy from the period before the financial crisis. The housing boom in 2021 led to transactions jumping to nearly 108,000, up from 75,000 the year before. That substantial increase was followed by two years of the market contracting.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.