UK residents by broad country of birth and citizenship groups, broken down by UK country, local authority, unitary authority, metropolitan and London boroughs, and counties. Estimates from the Annual Population Survey.

Introduction The 2023 mid-year estimate (MYE) is the current official estimate of the population for local authorities in England and Wales. Estimates are produced annually by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the 2023 MYE was published on 15 July 2024. Comparison to previous MYE data The previous MYE series (for the period 2012-2020) starts with the 2011 census estimate. Each subsequent year’s population is calculated by adding estimates of births, deaths and migration to the previous year’s population. The 2021 MYE represents a break in this series as it uses the 2021 census as its base. The ONS revised the 2012-2020 MYE series to bring it in line with the 2021 MYE, so that comparisons could be made between between this series and the previous series. The values plotted on the chart are the revised values of the previously published estimates for 2011 to 2022, together with the estimates for 2023. Key Points London’s mid-2023 population was 8.945 million London’s population increased by 76,300 persons compared to the previous mid-year value Components of change were as follows: 105,100 births and 53,500 deaths (natural change of 51,600) Net domestic migration was an outflow of 129,200 Net international migration was an inflow of 154,100 Population Change London’s 2023 population was 8,945,310. The first chart below shows the 2023 MYE in the context of previous estimates. There is an uptick after a temporary decrease in population which we attribute to the COVID-19 pandemic. Components of Change Births, deaths and migration form the components of population change. The 2023 MYE value for births was 4% lower than that in 2022, and for deaths 3% higher. The consequent value for natural change (births - deaths) was 10% lower than in 2022. At -129,000, the value for domestic migration (migration within the UK) was nearly 3% higher than the 2022 value, so still significantly lower than the peak net outflow during the COVID-19 pandemic of -186,000. An outflow of domestic migrants from London is normal and this has been the case each year for the last two decades. This flow is partly because many international in-migrants initially settle in London before moving out to other parts of the UK. The second move in this sequence is counted as a domestic migration. There has been a marked change in immigration since 2021. This can be attributed to the end of free movement for EU nationals, easing of travel restrictions following the COVID 19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. At over 150,000, the 2023 MYE value for London’s net international migration was more than 18% higher than 2022, and represents a considerable increase from 78,000 in 2021. Age structure of the population Future Updates The release of the next mid-year estimates is expected in July 2025. The full ONS mid-year population estimates release and back series can be found on the ONS website: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates. For information relating to London’s population see the demography pages of the London Datastore: https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ or email demography@london.gov.uk. An in-depth review of the available evidence for population change in London since the start of the coronavirus pandemic has been produced by GLA Demography: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-in-london-during-the-pandemic.

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by population density (number of usual residents per square kilometre). The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

Area type

Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.

For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.

Lower Tier Local Authorities

Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. In England there are 309 lower tier local authorities. These are made up of non-metropolitan districts (181), unitary authorities (59), metropolitan districts (36) and London boroughs (33, including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities. Of these local authority types, only non-metropolitan districts are not additionally classified as upper tier local authorities.

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by sex and single year of age. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

The classifications for the datasets TS009 Sex by single year of age and RM200 Sex by single year of age (detailed) are the same. However, RM200 has data available at the lower geographies of:

• Lower layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs)
• Middle layer Super Output Areas (MSOAs)
• Electoral wards and divisions
• Westminster parliamentary constituencies

Estimates for single year of age between ages 90 and 100+ are less reliable than other ages. Estimation and adjustment at these ages was based on the age range 90+ rather than five-year age bands. Read more about this quality notice.

Area type

Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.

For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.

Coverage

Census 2021 statistics are published for the whole of England and Wales. Data are also available in these geographic types:

• country - for example, Wales
• region - for example, London
• local authority - for example, Cornwall
• health area – for example, Clinical Commissioning Group
• statistical area - for example, MSOA or LSOA

Age

A person’s age on Census Day, 21 March 2021 in England and Wales. Infants aged under 1 year are classified as 0 years of age.

Sex

This is the sex recorded by the person completing the census. The options were “Female” and “Male”.

National and subnational mid-year population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries by administrative area, age and sex (including components of population change, median age and population density).

In 2024, the population of the United Kingdom reached 69.3 million, compared with 68.5 million in 2023. The UK population has more than doubled since 1871 when just under 31.5 million lived in the UK and has grown by around 10.4 million since the start of the twenty-first century. For most of the twentieth century, the UK population steadily increased, with two noticeable drops in population occurring during World War One (1914-1918) and in World War Two (1939-1945). Demographic trends in postwar Britain After World War Two, Britain and many other countries in the Western world experienced a 'baby boom,' with a postwar peak of 1.02 million live births in 1947. Although the number of births fell between 1948 and 1955, they increased again between the mid-1950s and mid-1960s, with more than one million people born in 1964. Since 1964, however, the UK birth rate has fallen from 18.8 births per 1,000 people to a low of just 10.2 in 2020. As a result, the UK population has gotten significantly older, with the country's median age increasing from 37.9 years in 2001 to 40.7 years in 2022. What are the most populated areas of the UK? The vast majority of people in the UK live in England, which had a population of 58.6 million people in 2024. By comparison, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland had populations of 5.5 million, 3.2 million, and 1.9 million, respectively. Within England, South East England had the largest population, at over 9.6 million, followed by the UK's vast capital city of London, at almost 9.1 million. London is far larger than any other UK city in terms of urban agglomeration, with just four other cities; Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, and Glasgow, boasting populations that exceed one million people.

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by sex, and by age. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

Estimates for single year of age between ages 90 and 100+ are less reliable than other ages. Estimation and adjustment at these ages was based on the age range 90+ rather than five-year age bands. Read more about this quality notice.

Area type

Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.

For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.

Lower tier local authorities

Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. There are 309 lower tier local authorities in England made up of 181 non-metropolitan districts, 59 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan districts and 33 London boroughs (including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities.

Coverage

Census 2021 statistics are published for the whole of England and Wales. However, you can choose to filter areas by:

• country - for example, Wales
• region - for example, London
• local authority - for example, Cornwall
• health area – for example, Clinical Commissioning Group
• statistical area - for example, MSOA or LSOA

Sex

This is the sex recorded by the person completing the census. The options were “Female” and “Male”.

Age

A person’s age on Census Day, 21 March 2021 in England and Wales. Infants aged under 1 year are classified as 0 years of age.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the New London population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of New London across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2022, the population of New London was 1,880, a 1.31% decrease year-by-year from 2021. Previously, in 2021, New London population was 1,905, a decline of 0.21% compared to a population of 1,909 in 2020. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2022, population of New London decreased by 74. In this period, the peak population was 1,954 in the year 2000. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2022

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2022)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the New London is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in New London population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for New London Population by Year. You can refer the same here

The population of the United Kingdom in 2024 was estimated to be approximately 69.3 million, with over 9.6 million people living in South East England. London had the next highest population, at almost 9.1 million people, followed by the North West England at 7.7 million. With the UK's population generally concentrated in England, most English regions have larger populations than the constituent countries of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, which had populations of 5.5 million, 3.2 million, and 1.9 million respectively. English counties and cities The United Kingdom is a patchwork of various regional units, within England the largest of these are the regions shown here, which show how London, along with the rest of South East England had around 18 million people living there in this year. The next significant regional units in England are the 47 metropolitan and ceremonial counties. After London, the metropolitan counties of the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, and West Yorkshire were the biggest of these counties, due to covering the large urban areas of Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds respectively. Regional divisions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland The smaller countries that comprise the United Kingdom each have different local subdivisions. Within Scotland these are called council areas, whereas in Wales the main regional units are called unitary authorities. Scotland's largest Council Area by population is that of Glasgow City at over 650,000, while in Wales, it was the Cardiff Unitary Authority at around 384,000. Northern Ireland, on the other hand, has eleven local government districts, the largest of which is Belfast with a population of approxiamtely 352,000.

According to the 2021 Census, London was the most ethnically diverse region in England and Wales – 63.2% of residents identified with an ethnic minority group.

This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents in England and Wales by method used to travel to work (2001 specification) and by distance travelled to work. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.

_As Census 2021 was during a unique period of rapid change, take care when using this data for planning purposes. Due to methodological changes the ‘mainly work at or from home: any workplace type’ category has a population of zero. Please use the transport_to_workplace_12a classification instead. Read more about this quality notice._

As Census 2021 was during a unique period of rapid change, take care when using this data for planning purposes. Read more about this quality notice.

Area type

Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.

For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.

Lower tier local authorities

Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. There are 309 lower tier local authorities in England made up of 181 non-metropolitan districts, 59 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan districts and 33 London boroughs (including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities.

Coverage

Census 2021 statistics are published for the whole of England and Wales. However, you can choose to filter areas by:

• country - for example, Wales
• region - for example, London
• local authority - for example, Cornwall
• health area – for example, Clinical Commissioning Group
• statistical area - for example, MSOA or LSOA

Method used to travel to workplace

A person's place of work and their method of travel to work. This is the 2001 method of producing travel to work variables.

"Work mainly from home" applies to someone who indicated their place of work as their home address and travelled to work by driving a car or van, for example visiting clients.

Distance travelled to work

The distance, in kilometres, between a person's residential postcode and their workplace postcode measured in a straight line. A distance travelled of 0.1km indicates that the workplace postcode is the same as the residential postcode. Distances over 1200km are treated as invalid, and an imputed or estimated value is added.

“Work mainly at or from home” is made up of those that ticked either the "Mainly work at or from home" box for the address of workplace question, or the “Work mainly at or from home” box for the method of travel to work question.

Distance is calculated as the straight line distance between the enumeration postcode and the workplace postcode.

Combine this variable with “Economic activity status” to identify those in employment at the time of the census.

On 28 June 2022 ONS released the first results from the 2011 Census of England and Wales comprising for each local authority the estimated population at census day (21 March 2021) and the number of households. Population estimates are by five-year age band and sex. Estimates of responses rates for each local authority were also published. Read our blog post which describes how the census data relates to other population estimates and some of the pitfalls to avoid when interpreting the numbers.

Mid-year (30 June) estimates of the usual resident population for Lower layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in England and Wales by single year of age and sex.

London's Population Over Time

For trend prediction London's population

By Eva Murray [source]

About this dataset

This file contains data on the projected population of London from 2011 to 2050. The data comes from the London Datastore and offers a glimpse into the future of one of the world's most populous cities

How to use the dataset

Research Ideas

• Predicting crime rates based on population growth
• Determining which areas of London will need more infrastructure to accommodate the growing population
• Planning for different marketing and advertising strategies based on demographics

Acknowledgements

Data Source

License

License: Dataset copyright by authors - You are free to: - Share - copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially. - Adapt - remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. - You must: - Give appropriate credit - Provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. - ShareAlike - You must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original. - Keep intact - all notices that refer to this license, including copyright notices.

Columns

File: central_trend_2017_base.csv | Column name | Description | |:--------------|:------------------------------------| | gss_code | The GSS code for the area. (String) | | district | The name of the district. (String) | | component | The population component. (String) | | sex | The sex of the population. (String) | | age | The age of the population. (String) | | 2011 | The population in 2011. (Integer) | | 2012 | The population in 2012. (Integer) | | 2013 | The population in 2013. (Integer) | | 2014 | The population in 2014. (Integer) | | 2015 | The population in 2015. (Integer) | | 2016 | The population in 2016. (Integer) | | 2017 | The population in 2017. (Integer) | | 2018 | The population in 2018. (Integer) | | 2019 | The population in 2019. (Integer) | | 2020 | The population in 2020. (Integer) | | 2021 | The population in 2021. (Integer) | | 2022 | The population in 2022. (Integer) | | 2023 | The population in 2023. (Integer) | | 2024 | The population in 2024. (Integer) | | 2025 | The population in 2025. (Integer) | | 2026 | The population in 2026. (Integer) | | 2027 | The population in 2027. (Integer) | | 2028 | The population in 2028. (Integer) | | 2029 | The population in 2029. (Integer) | | 2030 | The population in 2030. (Integer) | | 2031 | The population in 2031. (Integer) | | 2032 | The population in 2032. (Integer) | | 2033 | The population in 2033. (Integer) | | 2034 | The population in 2034. (Integer) | | 2035 | The population in 2035. (Integer) | | 2036 | The population in 2036. (Integer) | | 2037 | The population in 2037. (Integer) | | 2038 | The population in 2038. (Integer) | | 2039 | The population in 20 |

Acknowledgements

If you use this dataset in your research, please credit Eva Murray.

These modelled annual population estimates were created for use the GLA's population projections.

They are intended to provide a consistent series of annual population and components of change between census years with all change accounted for by the standard components of change (births, deaths, and migration).

The official mid-year population estimates published by ONS are available here.

The original detailed internal migration data published by ONS is available here.

An overview of the general approach used to create these estimates is described in this presentation delivered at the 2022 BSPS conference.

* 17 April 2023 code for producing the modelled 2021 detailed internal migration flows is now available on Github

Mid-year (30 June) estimates of the usual resident population for electoral wards in England and Wales. Note: this page is no longer updated. Latest estimates, and all data for mid-2012 onwards, are available on the Nomis website.

This zip file contains the Standard Area Measurements (SAM) for the 2021 Statistical Areas in England and Wales as at Census Day (21 March 2021). This includes the Output Areas (OA), Lower layer Super Output Areas (LSOA), Middle layer Super Output Areas (MSOA), the Lower-Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) including the Unitary Authorities (E06 and W06), Non-metropolitan Districts (E07), Metropolitan Districts (E08) and London Boroughs (E09), the Upper-Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) including the Unitary Authorities (E06 and W06), Counties (E10), Metropolitan Districts (E08) and London Boroughs (E09), the Regions including the country of Wales, Countries and National. All measurements provided are ‘flat’ as they do not take into account variations in relief e.g. mountains and valleys. Measurements are given in hectares (10,000 square metres) to 2 decimal places and square kilometres to 4 decimal places. Four types of measurements are included: total extent (AREAEHECT), area to mean high water (coastline) (AREACHECT), area of inland water (AREAIHECT) and area to mean high water excluding area of inland water (land area) (AREALHECT). The Eurostat-recommended approach is to use the ‘land area’ measurement to compile population density figures.This V2 is because the user guide name was too long.PLEASE NOTE:There is an extremely small OA with the code E00187556 and measures 400 centimetres squared. This is because all the population and household points are centred around a very small space and to make sure it was in threshold it was manually changed to make it within threshold.Click the Download button to download the files

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the New London population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of New London across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2023, the population of New London was 1,870, a 1.06% decrease year-by-year from 2022. Previously, in 2022, New London population was 1,890, a decline of 0.89% compared to a population of 1,907 in 2021. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2023, population of New London decreased by 84. In this period, the peak population was 1,954 in the year 2000. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2023

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2023)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the New London is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in New London population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for New London Population by Year. You can refer the same here

In 2024, there were estimated to be 976,481 people who were aged 33 in the United Kingdom, the most of any age in this year. The two largest age groups during this year were 30-34, and 35-39, at 4.8 million and 4.78 million people respectively. There is also a noticeable spike of 673,831 people who were aged 77, which is due to the high number of births that followed the end of the Second World War. Over one million born in 1964 In post-war Britain, there have only been two years when the number of live births was over one million, in 1947 and in 1964. The number of births recorded in the years between these two years was consistently high as well, with 1955 having the fewest births in this period at 789,000. This meant that until relatively recently, Baby Boomers were the largest generational cohort in the UK. As of 2024, there were approximately 13.4 million Baby Boomers, compared with 14 million in Generation X, 15 million Millennials, and 13.6 million members of Gen Z. The youngest generation in the UK, Generation Alpha, numbered approximately 9.2 million in the same year. Median age to hit 44.5 years by 2050 The population of the United Kingdom is aging at a substantial rate, with the median age of the population expected to reach 44.5 years by 2050. By comparison, in 1950 the average age in the United Kingdom stood at 34.9 years. This phenomenon is not unique to the United Kingdom, with median age of people worldwide increasing from 23.6 years in 1950 to a forecasted 41.9 years by 2100. As of 2024, the region with the oldest median age in the UK was South West England, at 43.7 years, compared with 35.7 in London, the region with the youngest median age.

Vaccinations in London Between 8 December 2020 and 15 September 2021 5,838,305 1st doses and 5,232,885 2nd doses have been administered to London residents.

Differences in vaccine roll out between London and the Rest of England London Rest of England Priority Group Vaccinations given Percentage vaccinated Vaccinations given Percentage vaccinated Group 1 Older Adult Care Home Residents 21,883 95% 275,964 96% Older Adult Care Home Staff 29,405 85% 381,637 88% Group 2 80+ years 251,021 83% 2,368,284 93% Health Care Worker 174,944 99% 1,139,243 100%* Group 3 75 - 79 years 177,665 90% 1,796,408 99% Group 4 70 - 74 years 252,609 90% 2,454,381 97% Clinically Extremely Vulnerable 278,967 88% 1,850,485 95% Group 5 65 - 69 years 285,768 90% 2,381,250 97% Group 6 At Risk or Carer (Under 65) 983,379 78% 6,093,082 88% Younger Adult Care Home Residents 3,822 92% 30,321 93% Group 7 60 - 64 years 373,327 92% 2,748,412 98% Group 8 55 - 59 years 465,276 91% 3,152,412 97% Group 9 50 - 54 years 510,132 90% 3,141,219 95% Data as at 15 September 2021 for age based groups and as at 12 September 2021 for non-age based groups * The number who have received their first dose exceeds the latest official estimate of the population for this group There is considerable uncertainty in the population denominators used to calculate the percentage vaccinated. Comparing implied vaccination rates for multiple sources of denominators provides some indication of uncertainty in the true values. Confidence is higher where the results from multiple sources agree more closely. Because the denominator sources are not fully independent of one another, users should interpret the range of values across sources as indicating the minimum range of uncertainty in the true value. The following datasets can be used to estimate vaccine uptake by age group for London:

ONS 2020 mid-year estimates (MYE). This is the population estimate used for age groups throughout the rest of the analysis.


Number of people ages 18 and over on the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS)


ONS Public Health Data Asset (PHDA) dataset. This is a linked dataset combining the 2011 Census, the General Practice Extraction Service (GPES) data for pandemic planning and research and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). This data covers a subset of the population.

Vaccine roll out in London by Ethnic Group Understanding how vaccine uptake varies across different ethnic groups in London is complicated by two issues:

Ethnicity information for recipients is unavailable for a very large number of the vaccinations that have been delivered. As a result, estimates of vaccine uptake by ethnic group are highly sensitive to the assumptions about and treatment of the Unknown group in calculations of rates.

For vaccinations given to people aged 50 and over in London nearly 10% do not have ethnicity information available,

The accuracy of available population denominators by ethnic group is limited. Because ethnicity information is not captured in official estimates of births, deaths, and migration, the available population denominators typically rely on projecting forward patterns captured in the 2011 Census. Subsequent changes to these patterns, particularly with respect to international migration, leads to increasing uncertainty in the accuracy of denominators sources as we move further away from 2011.

Comparing estimated population sizes and implied vaccination rates for multiple sources of denominators provides some indication of uncertainty in the true values. Confidence is higher where the results from multiple sources agree more closely. Because the denominator sources are not fully independent of one another, users should interpret the range of values across sources as indicating the minimum range of uncertainty in the true value. The following population estimates are available by Ethnic group for London:

GLA Ethnic group population projections - 2016 as at 2021


ONS Population Denominators produced for Race Disparity Audit as at 2018


ETHPOP population projections produced by the University of Leeds as at 2020

Antibody prevalence estimates As part of the ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey ONS publish a modelled estimate of the percent of the adult population testing positive for antibodies to Coronavirus by region. Antibodies can be generated by vaccination or previous infection.

Vaccine effects on cases, hospitalisations and deaths When the vaccine roll out began in December 2020 coronavirus cases, hospital admissions and deaths were rising steeply. The peak of infections came in London in early January 2021, before reducing during the national lockdown and as the vaccine roll out progressed. As the vaccine roll out began in older age groups the effect of vaccinations can be separated from the effect of national lockdown by comparing changes in cases, admissions and deaths