According to the forecast, house prices in London are expected to fall slightly in 2024, followed by a recovery in the following years. The decline can be explained with the cost of living crisis and the dramatic increase in borrowing costs. As the economy recovers in the next five-years, house prices for mainstream properties are forecast to rise by almost ** percent. In 2023, the average house price in London ranged between ******* British pounds and *** million British pounds, depending on the borough. Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Newham, and Croydon were some of the most affordable boroughs to buy a house.

After a period of rapid increase, house price growth in the UK has moderated. In 2025, house prices are forecast to increase by ****percent. Between 2025 and 2029, the average house price growth is projected at *** percent. According to the source, home building is expected to increase slightly in this period, fueling home buying. On the other hand, higher borrowing costs despite recent easing of mortgage rates and affordability challenges may continue to suppress transaction activity. Historical house price growth in the UK House prices rose steadily between 2015 and 2020, despite minor fluctuations. In the following two years, prices soared, leading to the house price index jumping by about 20 percent. As the market stood in April 2025, the average price for a home stood at approximately ******* British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next five years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2025 and slow slightly until 2029. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Outer London slightly outperforming Central London.

Prices for prime residential real estate in Central London were expected to decline slightly in 2024, followed by a gradual increase until 2028, according to a *********** forecast. During the five-year period, the prices are forecast to rise by **** percent. In comparison, regional prime property prices and Outer London prime property prices are forecast to grow at a lower rate.

According to the forecast, the North East and Wales are the regions in the United Kingdom estimated to see the highest overall growth in house prices over the five-year period between 2024 and 2028. Just behind are North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Scotland, which are forecast to see house prices increase by **** percent over the five-year period. In London, house prices are expected to rise by **** percent.

Housing Index in the United Kingdom decreased to 511.60 points in June from 511.80 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom House Price Index - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Update 29-04-2020: The data is now split into two files based on the variable collection frequency (monthly and yearly). Additional variables added: area size in hectares, number of jobs in the area, number of people living in the area.

Context

I have been inspired by Xavier and his work on Barcelona to explore the city of London! 🇬🇧 💂

Content

The datasets is primarily centered around the housing market of London. However, it contains a lot of additional relevant data: - Monthly average house prices - Yearly number of houses - Yearly number of houses sold - Yearly percentage of households that recycle - Yearly life satisfaction - Yearly median salary of the residents of the area - Yearly mean salary of the residents of the area - Monthly number of crimes committed - Yearly number of jobs - Yearly number of people living in the area - Area size in hectares

The data is split by areas of London called boroughs (a flag exists to identify these), but some of the variables have other geographical UK regions for reference (like England, North East, etc.). There have been no changes made to the data except for melting it into a long format from the original tables.

Acknowledgements

The data has been extracted from London Datastore. It is released under UK Open Government License v2 and v3. The underlining datasets can be found here: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/uk-house-price-index https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-and-density-of-dwellings-by-borough https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/subjective-personal-well-being-borough https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/household-waste-recycling-rates-borough https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/earnings-place-residence-borough https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/recorded_crime_summary https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/jobs-and-job-density-borough https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/ons-mid-year-population-estimates-custom-age-tables

Cover photo by Frans Ruiter from Unsplash

Inspiration

The dataset lends itself for extensive exploratory data analysis. It could also be a great supervised learning regression problem to predict house price changes of different boroughs over time.

Prices for prime residential real estate in Outer London are expected to grow year-on-year, achieving a cumulative increase of over ** percent until 2028. According to a *********** forecast, prices growth will be slower at first, but accelerate toward the end of the period. Meanwhile, Central London prime property prices are projected to experience a stronger growth rate.

These National Statistics provide monthly estimates of the number of residential and non-residential property transactions in the UK and its constituent countries. National Statistics are accredited official statistics.

England and Northern Ireland statistics are based on information submitted to the HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) database by taxpayers on SDLT returns.

Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) replaced SDLT in Scotland from 1 April 2015 and this data is provided to HMRC by https://www.revenue.scot/" class="govuk-link">Revenue Scotland to continue the time series.

Land Transaction Tax (LTT) replaced SDLT in Wales from 1 April 2018. To continue the time series, the https://gov.wales/welsh-revenue-authority" class="govuk-link">Welsh Revenue Authority (WRA) have provided HMRC with a monthly data feed of LTT transactions since July 2021.

LTT figures for the latest month are estimated using a grossing factor based on data for the most recent and complete financial year. Until June 2021, LTT transactions for the latest month were estimated by HMRC based upon year on year growth in line with other UK nations.

LTT transactions up to the penultimate month are aligned with LTT statistics.

Go to Stamp Duty Land Tax guidance for the latest rates and information.

Go to Stamp Duty Land Tax rates from 1 December 2003 to 22 September 2022 and Stamp Duty: rates on land transfers before December 2003 for historic rates.

The latest release was published 09:30 27 June 2025 and was updated with provisional data from completed transactions during May 2025.

The next release will be published 09:30 31 July 2025 and will be updated with provisional data from completed transactions during June 2025.

https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20240320184933/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above" class="govuk-link">Archive versions of the Monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value of £40,000 or above are available via the UK Government Web Archive, from the National Archives.

The house price index in London reached 129.9 index points in June 2024, which was an increase from a year ago, despite a mild correction. The house price index (HPI) is an easy way of illustrating trends in the house sales market and help simplify house purchase decisions. By using hedonic regression, the index models property price data for all dwellings and shows how much the price has changed since January 2015. How have regional house prices in the UK developed? House prices in other UK regions have risen even more than in London. In the North West, the house price index exceeded 160 index points, ranking it among the regions with the highest property appreciation. The UK house price index stood at 151 index points, suggesting an increase of 51 percent since 2015. Average house prices Location plays a huge role in the price of a home. Kensington and Chelsea and City of Westminster are undoubtedly the most expensive boroughs in London, with an average house price that can exceed one million British pounds. In comparison, a house in Barking and Dagenham cost approximately one third. Nevertheless, the housing market is the busiest in the boroughs with average house prices.

Rental rates of prime rental properties in Central London are forecast to increase by about one percent more than prime properties in the commuter zone between 2024 and 2028. Rental growth during this period is expected to reach 19 percent in Central London and almost 17 percent in Outer London. Most of the increase is forecast to take place in 2026. In comparison, rents of mainstream properties are expected to increase at a lower rate.

Investments in the commercial property market in London peaked in 2017 and have since declined. In 2022, the value of investment in the sector was **** billion British pounds, which was a slight uptick from the previous year. Many European countries followed the same trend and experienced an increase in investments in 2022. According to the forecast, investment volumes in London are expected to fall in 2023, as developed markets continue to tackle accelerating inflation. In the following years, the market is expected to grow year-on-year, reaching about **** billion British pounds in 2027.

The European residential construction market, valued at €1.08 billion in 2025, is projected to experience robust growth, driven by several key factors. A rising population, particularly in urban centers across major European economies like the UK, Germany, and France, fuels the demand for new housing. Furthermore, government initiatives aimed at stimulating affordable housing and addressing housing shortages, coupled with improving economic conditions in several regions, contribute to market expansion. The market is segmented by property type (single-family and multi-family) and construction type (new construction and renovation), with new construction currently dominating due to higher profitability and demand for modern housing amenities. Growth in the multi-family segment is expected to accelerate due to increasing urbanization and changing lifestyle preferences. While challenges remain, such as fluctuating material costs, skilled labor shortages, and stringent building regulations, these are likely to be mitigated by technological advancements in construction and sustainable building practices. Key players like Bellway plc, Skanska AB, and Persimmon plc are actively shaping the market landscape through strategic acquisitions, technological integration, and expansion into new regions. The projected CAGR of 5.67% suggests a consistently growing market over the forecast period (2025-2033), indicating significant investment opportunities. The renovation segment is expected to witness steady growth, driven by the increasing need to upgrade existing properties to meet modern standards of energy efficiency and sustainability. Government incentives and regulations promoting green building practices are further bolstering this segment. Competition within the market is intense, with established players focusing on innovation, diversification, and efficient project management to maintain their market share. The regional performance will vary depending on economic conditions and governmental policies within each nation. The UK, Germany, and France are anticipated to be the largest markets, driven by stronger economies and higher population density. However, other countries within the specified region (including Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and Denmark) will contribute significantly to the overall market growth, particularly as housing shortages are addressed through public and private sector investments. Recent developments include: April 2023: Apollo Global Management Inc. agreed to buy part of a portfolio of apartments from Vonovia SEfor €1 billion ($1.1 billion), with the largest German residential deal in months suggesting confidence is returning to the under-pressure sector. The private equity firm will acquire a minority stake in 21,000 homes in the German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg at a discount of about 5% to the portfolio’s year-end valuation., October 2023: The new housing association, Sovereign Network Group (SNG), announced its formation yesterday following a tie-up between 61,000-home Sovereign and Network Homes, which managed 21,000 properties. The new organisation will be a member of the G15 group of London’s largest landlords, and will manage more than 82,000 homes with 210,000 customers across London, Hertfordshire and the South of England.. Notable trends are: Increasing in Investments in Multifamily Residential Construction.

FOCUSONLONDON2011: HOUSING:AGROWINGCITY

With the highest average incomes in the country but the least space to grow, demand for housing in London has long outstripped supply, resulting in higher housing costs and rising levels of overcrowding. The pressures of housing demand in London have grown in recent years, in part due to fewer people leaving London to buy homes in other regions. But while new supply during the recession held up better in London than in other regions, it needs to increase significantly in order to meet housing needs and reduce housing costs to more affordable levels.

This edition of Focus on London authored by James Gleeson in the Housing Unit looks at housing trends in London, from the demand/supply imbalance to the consequences for affordability and housing need.

REPORT:

Read the report in PDF format.

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PRESENTATION:

How much pressure is London’s popularity putting on housing provision in the capital? This interactive presentation looks at the effect on housing pressure of demographic changes, and recent new housing supply, shown by trends in overcrowding and house prices. Click on the start button at the bottom of the slide to access.

View Focus on London - Housing: A Growing City on Prezi

HISTOGRAM:

This histogram shows a selection of borough data and helps show areas that are similar to one another by each indicator.

Histogram

MOTION CHART:

This motion chart shows how the relationship, between key housing related indicators at borough level, changes over time.

Motion Chart

MAP:

These interactive borough maps help to geographically present a range of housing data within London, as well as presenting trend data where available.

MAP

DATA:

All the data contained within the Housing: A Growing City report as well as the data used to create the charts and maps can be accessed in this spreadsheet.

FACTS:

Some interesting facts from the data…

● Five boroughs with the highest proportion of households that have lived at their address for less than 12 months in 2009/10:

1. Westminster – 19 per cent
2. Wandsworth – 17 per cent
3. Camden – 16 per cent
4. Lambeth – 14 per cent
5. Southwark – 13 per cent

-31. Harrow – 6 per cent

-32. Havering – 5 per cent

● Five boroughs with the highest percentage point increase between 2004 and 2009 of households in the ‘private rented’ sector:

1. Newham – 17 per cent
2. Greenwich – 11 per cent
3. Enfield – 10 per cent
4. Camden – 9 per cent
5. Harrow – 8 per cent

-32. Islington – 1 per cent

-33. Bexley – 1 per cent

● Five boroughs with the highest percentage difference in median house prices between 2007 Q4 and 2010 Q4:

1. Kensington & Chelsea – 29 per cent
2. Westminster – 19 per cent
3. Camden – 15 per cent
4. Islington – 14 per cent
5. Southwark – 10 per cent

-31. Newham – down 9 per cent

-32. Barking & D’ham – down 9 per cent

Companies in the Commercial Real Estate Agents industry act as intermediaries for the buying, selling, renting or leasing non-residential property. Typically, estate agents can earn income via fees and commissions charged to clients, which allows them to protect their operating profit margin from commercial property price fluctuations. Agents may also provide clients with value-added ancillary services through which they can generate additional revenue, including specialist transaction advisory services and escrow services. Competitive pressures have forced estate agents to lower fees to retain business volumes. Through the end of 2024-25, the commercial real estate agents industry is expected to swell at a compound annual rate of 0.8% to £5.1 billion. In 2020-21, pandemic-related disruption rocked the industry, with revenue tanking by 15.7% and profitability narrowed. The sector picked up over the two years through 2022-23, though output dropped by 12.6% in 2023-24 amid higher mortgage rates and rapid cost-push inflation slashing downstream business activity. Revenues are set to bounce back in 2024-25 as business confidence creeps up along with falling inflation and interest rates, reducing investor borrowing costs and boosting transaction volumes. Central London's retail resurgence has benefitted commercial real estate revenues in 2024-25, with Central London retail investment volumes increasing by 71% in Q2 2024 compared to Q1. Through the five years through 2029-30, the commercial real estate agents industry is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 2.6% to £5.8 billion. In the short term, high business lending rates will impair the affordability of UK properties and soften commercial property prices. Nonetheless, opportunities for estate agents to drive commissions and fee revenue remain. The market for industrial real estate, in particular logistics and warehouse space, has been labelled a growth sector, with expansion in internet-led markets and efforts to expand domestic and global supply chains expected to support demand for non-residential real estate going forward. Elsewhere, persisting hybrid work-from-home trends could change the need for office real estate.

The monthly house price index in London has been steadily increasing in recent years. In June 2024, the index reached 129.9, up from 129 a year before. Nevertheless, prices widely varied in different London boroughs, with Kensington and Chelsea being the priciest boroughs for an apartment purchase.

In 2022, house price growth in the UK slowed, after a period of decade-long increase. Nevertheless, in March 2025, prices reached a new peak, with the average home costing ******* British pounds. This figure refers to all property types, including detached, semi-detached, terraced houses, and flats and maisonettes. Compared to other European countries, the UK had some of the highest house prices. How have UK house prices increased over the last 10 years? Property prices have risen dramatically over the past decade. According to the UK house price index, the average house price has grown by over ** percent since 2015. This price development has led to the gap between the cost of buying and renting a property to close. In 2023, buying a three-bedroom house in the UK was no longer more affordable than renting one. Consequently, Brits have become more likely to rent longer and push off making a house purchase until they have saved up enough for a down payment and achieved the financial stability required to make the step. What caused the recent fluctuations in house prices? House prices are affected by multiple factors, such as mortgage rates, supply, and demand on the market. For nearly a decade, the UK experienced uninterrupted house price growth as a result of strong demand and a chronic undersupply. Homebuyers who purchased a property at the peak of the housing boom in July 2022 paid ** percent more compared to what they would have paid a year before. Additionally, 2022 saw the most dramatic increase in mortgage rates in recent history. Between December 2021 and December 2022, the **-year fixed mortgage rate doubled, adding further strain to prospective homebuyers. As a result, the market cooled, leading to a correction in pricing.

The UK construction market, valued at approximately £398.68 million in 2025, is projected to experience steady growth with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.19% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is driven by several factors, including ongoing infrastructure development projects (like HS2 and other transport initiatives), a sustained, albeit fluctuating, demand for residential housing, and increasing investment in renewable energy and utility infrastructure to support the UK's net-zero targets. The residential sector remains a significant contributor, but commercial construction is also expected to see moderate growth, fueled by ongoing investment in office spaces and retail developments, though potentially impacted by economic fluctuations and remote work trends. The industrial sector's performance will depend heavily on broader economic conditions and supply chain resilience. While these positive drivers exist, the market faces constraints including material price volatility, skilled labor shortages, and potential regulatory hurdles associated with sustainability initiatives. The need for environmentally sustainable construction practices is creating both challenges and opportunities, pushing innovation and driving demand for green building materials and technologies. Major players like Kier Group PLC, Balfour Beatty PLC, and Laing O'Rourke PLC are navigating these complexities, competing for market share and adapting to evolving industry demands. The segmentation of the UK construction market reveals a diverse landscape. Residential projects continue to be a key driver, influenced by demographic shifts and housing policy. Commercial construction, encompassing office buildings and retail spaces, is subject to economic cycles and technological disruptions. The industrial sector experiences fluctuating demand depending on manufacturing and logistics activity. Infrastructure projects, including transportation and utilities, provide significant and often long-term opportunities, although subject to government funding cycles. Lastly, the energy and utilities sector shows substantial growth potential due to the country’s transition towards renewable energy sources and investments in grid modernization. The regional distribution of construction activity reflects disparities in economic development and housing needs across the UK, with London and the South East generally showing higher activity levels compared to other regions. The forecast period (2025-2033) anticipates continued growth, albeit at a moderate pace, shaped by economic conditions, government policies, and the evolving demands for sustainable and resilient infrastructure. Recent developments include: August 2023: McAleer and Rushe announced that they had begun constructing the last phase of Southbank Place in London. The GBP 138 million (USD 174.34 million) Southbank Place Building 5 development is situated 100 m from the London Eye. This development is part of the master plan for the Shell Tower in London's South Bank.March 2023: The UK Department of Transport announced over GBP 40 billion (USD 50.54 billion) of capital investment in transport across the next two financial years, which will drive significant improvements for rail and roads across the market.. Key drivers for this market are: Investments in Transport Infrastructure. Potential restraints include: Investments in Transport Infrastructure. Notable trends are: Increase in GVA of Construction Industry Driving the Market.

Building society revenue is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 27.4% over the five years through 2025-26 to £51.7 billion, including estimated growth of 2.7% in 2025-26. Building societies have benefited from an influx of re-mortgaging activity, as homeowners have sought to lock in lower rates before expected interest rate rises. However, societies faced challenging operating conditions, including intense competition from other financial institutions like retail banks. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, the Bank of England underwent aggressive rate hikes, aiding interest income. Despite the growing base rate environment feeding through to elevated mortgage rates, the residential property market proved resilient for the majority of 2022-23, resulting in building societies reporting huge boosts to their net interest income. In 2023-24, rates continued to rise, lifting revenue growth further despite intensifying mortgage price competition. However, deposit costs picked up during the year, placing downward pressure on net interest income and profitability. Yet, revenue continued to skyrocket thanks to healthy interest income from mortgage lending in the higher base rate environment. In 2024-25, sticky inflation resulted in interest rates staying higher for longer, aiding revenue growth. However, rate cuts did occur as inflation normalised, contributing to a slower rate of revenue growth, which was partially offset by a healthy housing market. In 2025-26, revenue is set to continue growing as mortgage lending gathers momentum, with buyers making the most of lower borrowing costs. However, a declining base rate will continue to erode interest income and further slow revenue in 2025-26. Building society revenue is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.5% over the five years through 2029-30 to reach £58.5 billion. The UK housing market will continue to grow thanks to lower borrowing costs and aid interest income in the coming years through healthier mortgage lending. Revenue growth will disperse outside of the capital in regions like the North West, Yorkshire and the West Midlands due to the government's levelling up agenda and private multinationals expanding their presence elsewhere.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In April 2025, house prices increased by 3.5 percent. As of late 2024, the average house price was close to 290,000 British pounds. Correction in housing prices: a European phenomenon The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices. How has demand for UK housing changed since the outbreak of the coronavirus? The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

The average house price in London increased slightly year-on-year as of June 2024, amid a slowdown in the UK housing market. Barking and Dagenham was the most affordable borough to buy a house, with an average price of ******* British pounds. Kensington and Chelsea stood at the other end of the spectrum, with an average price of *** million British pounds. Nevertheless, it was also one of the boroughs where prices fell the most. Demand for housing and house prices With vastly more job and cultural opportunities, megacities continue attracting people from all over the world. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the population of London has increased by more than 2 million inhabitants and in the next 20 years, it is forecast to increase by almost *** million. That makes London properties a valuable asset. Historically, property prices in London have risen steadily, albeit minor fluctuations. Residential properties transactions Since 2006, the number of residential property sales has varied between *** million and *** million transactions annually. The housing boom in 2021 led to an increase in home purchases, but the economic uncertainty, stubborn inflation, and dramatically higher interest rates have led to transactions falling.