As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to May 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.37% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points and is 0.08 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.94% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points and is 0.39 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-07-18 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Government Bond Yields: Long Term: Month Avg: EU 27 excl UK data was reported at 3.570 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.320 % for Feb 2025. Government Bond Yields: Long Term: Month Avg: EU 27 excl UK data is updated monthly, averaging 3.500 % from Jan 2001 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 291 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.610 % in Jul 2001 and a record low of 0.060 % in Dec 2020. Government Bond Yields: Long Term: Month Avg: EU 27 excl UK data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Eurostat. The data is categorized under Global Database’s European Union – Table EU.M019: Eurostat: Long Term Government Bond Yield: Monthly Average: By Countries.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Germany DE: Government Bond Yield: Long Term data was reported at 0.283 % pa in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.090 % pa for 2016. Germany DE: Government Bond Yield: Long Term data is updated yearly, averaging 6.233 % pa from Dec 1957 (Median) to 2017, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.383 % pa in 1974 and a record low of 0.090 % pa in 2016. Germany DE: Government Bond Yield: Long Term data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.IMF.IFS: Treasury Bill and Government Securities Rates: Annual.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In 2023, long-term government bonds yields increased to **** percent, after years of low returns. This increase was due to the ECB's interest rates hikes implemented to lower inflation in EU member countries.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield rose to 2.68% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.22 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Japan JP: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data was reported at 1.845 % in 2026. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.345 % for 2025. Japan JP: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data is updated yearly, averaging 3.029 % from Dec 1966 (Median) to 2026, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.871 % in 1980 and a record low of -0.098 % in 2019. Japan JP: Long-Term Interest Rate: Government Bonds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.OECD.EO: Interest Rate: Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. IRL - Long-term interest rate on government bonds; Data refer to Japan Benchmark Bond - Redemption Yield 10 Years. Break in December 1998; pre-1998 refer to interest bearing government bonds (10 Years)

Brazil BR: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: Combined Terms data was reported at 7.050 % in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 6.777 % for 2022. Brazil BR: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: Combined Terms data is updated yearly, averaging 7.050 % from Dec 1995 (Median) to 2023, with 29 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 23.392 % in 1995 and a record low of 4.800 % in 2021. Brazil BR: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: Combined Terms data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Brazil – Table BR.OECD.MEI: Long Term Interest Rates: Non OECD Member: Annual. The Long Term Rate (TLP), formerly called the Long-Term Interest Rate (TJLP), became effective as of January 1, 2018. It is the main financing rate of the BNDES - National Bank for Economic and Social Development. The current TLP is defined every three months based on the inflation target for the year. The calculation for this rates takes into account the inflation target and the risk premium.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.59% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.17 points and is 0.52 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 20 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.93% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points and is 0.29 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for US 20Y.

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the drivers of long term real interest rates in Brazil. It is shown that long term yield on inflation linked bonds are driven by yields on 10 year interest rates of United States (US) government bonds and 10 year risk premium, as measured by the Credit Default Swap (CDS). Long term interest rates in Brazil were on a downward trend, following US real rates and stable risk premium, until the taper tantrum in the first half of 2013. From then onwards, real interest rates rose due to the increase in US real rates in anticipation of the beginning of monetary policy normalization and, more recently, due to a sharp increase in Brazilian risk premium. Policy interest rates do not significantly affect long term real interest rates.

The average yield for long-term government bond in Bulgaria reached almost **** percent as in October 2024. Bond yields were as low as **** percent in 2021, but started increasing following the interest rates hikes implemented by central banks in the last three years.

The statistic shows the long-term government bond yields in Lithuania from 2001 to 2024 as annual average values. In 2001, the average bond yield in Lithuania was 8.15 percent. That value decreased to 0.16 percent by the end of 2021, before increasing and reaching 2.88 in 2023.