****Dataset Overview**** This dataset contains historical macroeconomic data, featuring key economic indicators in the United States. It includes important metrics such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Money Supply (M2), and more. The dataset spans from 1993 to the present and includes monthly data on various economic indicators, processed to show their rate of change (either percentage or absolute difference, depending on the indicator).

provenance

The data in this dataset is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED provides access to a wide range of economic data, including key macroeconomic indicators for the United States. My work involved calculating the rate of change (ROC) for each indicator and reorganizing the data into a more usable format for analysis. For more information and access to the full database, visit FRED's website.

Purpose and Use for the Kaggle Community:

This dataset is a valuable resource for data scientists, economists, and analysts interested in understanding macroeconomic trends, performing time series analysis, or building predictive models. With the rate of change included, users can quickly assess the growth or contraction in these indicators month-over-month. This dataset can be used for:

• Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA): Understanding historical economic trends. -Time Series Forecasting: Building models to predict future economic conditions. -Macroeconomic Analysis: Analyzing the relationship between various economic indicators. -Machine Learning Projects: Using the data as features to predict financial or economic outcomes. -By utilizing this dataset, users can perform in-depth analysis on the impact of macroeconomic changes, compare the historical performance of various indicators, and experiment with different time series forecasting techniques.

****Column Descriptions****

Year: The year of the observation.

Month: The month of the observation (1-12).

Industrial Production: Monthly data on the total output of US factories, mines, and utilities.

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, indicating future production activity.

Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

Retail Sales: The total receipts of retail stores, indicating consumer spending and economic activity.

Producer Price Index: Measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): A measure of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, used in calculating inflation.

National Home Price Index: A measure of changes in residential real estate prices across the country.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm: The number of nonfarm payroll employees, an important indicator of the labor market.

Labor Force Participation Rate: The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work.

Federal Funds Effective Rate: The interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight.

Building Permits: The number of building permits issued for residential and non-residential buildings, a leading indicator of construction activity.

Money Supply (M2): The total money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money.

Personal Income: The total income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, investments, and government transfers.

Trade Balance: The difference between a country's imports and exports, indicating the net trade flow.

Consumer Sentiment: The index reflecting consumer sentiment and expectations for the future economic outlook.

Consumer Confidence: A measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation and the economy.

Notes on Interest Rates Please note that for the Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), the dataset includes the absolute change in basis points (bps), not the rate of change. This means that the dataset reflects the direct change in the interest rate rather than the percentage change month-over-month. The change is represented in basis points, where 1 basis point equals 0.01%.

The International Macroeconomic Data Set provides data from 1969 through 2030 for real (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP), population, real exchange rates, and other variables for the 190 countries and 34 regions that are most important for U.S. agricultural trade. The data presented here are a key component of the USDA Baseline projections process, and can be used as a benchmark for analyzing the impacts of U.S. and global macroeconomic shocks.This record was taken from the USDA Enterprise Data Inventory that feeds into the https://data.gov catalog. Data for this record includes the following resources: Web page with links to Excel files For complete information, please visit https://data.gov.

Analysis of ‘USA Key Economic Indicators’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/calven22/usa-key-macroeconomic-indicators on 28 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

Context

Domino’s Pizza, like many other restaurant chains, is getting pinched by higher food costs. The company’s chief executive, Richard Allison, anticipates “unprecedented increases” in the company’s food costs, which could jump by 8-10%. He said that is three to four times what the pizza chain would normally expect in a year.

This leads to the paramount issue of inflation which affects every aspects of the economy, from consumer spending, business investment and employment rates to government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. The recent release of consumer inflation data showed prices rose at the fastest pace since 1982. Inflation forecasting is key in the conduct of monetary policy and can be used in many other ways such as preserving asset values. This dataset is a consolidated macroeconomic official statistics from 1981 to 2021, containing data available in month and quarterly format.

Content

The Core Consumer Price Index (ccpi) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy due to their volatility. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a often used to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

Do note there are some null values in the dataset.

Acknowledgements

All data belongs to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis official release, and are retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Inspiration

What are some noticeable patterns or seasonality of the economy? What are the current trends of the economy? Which indicators has an effect on Core CPI or vice-versa based on predictive power or influence?

Quarterly data and monthly data can be merged with forward-fill or interpolation methods.

What is the forecast of Core CPI in 2022?

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

This dataset shows the long-run projections for the US agricultural sector to 2031 includes assumptions for the US and international macroeconomic conditions and projections for major commodities, farm income, and the US agricultural trade value. Values are from the publication United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Projections to 2032.

This graph shows a forecast of the gross domestic product of the United States of America for fiscal years 2024 to 2034. GDP refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. According to the CBO, the United States GDP will increase steadily over the next decade from 28.18 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023 to 41.65 trillion U.S. dollars in 2034. The annual GDP of the United States for recent years can be found here. Also, view the monthly inflation rate for the country.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States was worth 27720.71 billion US dollars in 2023, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of the United States represents 26.29 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides - United States GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

FG: saar: CA: Less: Social Contributions data was reported at 2,137.603 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2,111.206 USD bn for Dec 2017. FG: saar: CA: Less: Social Contributions data is updated quarterly, averaging 323.041 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,137.603 USD bn in Mar 2018 and a record low of 7.632 USD bn in Jun 1952. FG: saar: CA: Less: Social Contributions data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB079: Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: Federal Government.

IBISWorld details the current state of the US economy as well as the economic outlook for the coming months.

Holding Gains/Losses: Federal Government data was reported at 28.191 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 17.408 USD bn for Dec 2017. Holding Gains/Losses: Federal Government data is updated quarterly, averaging 8.288 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 39.953 USD bn in Dec 2004 and a record low of -59.839 USD bn in Mar 2009. Holding Gains/Losses: Federal Government data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB074: Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: Total Economy and Sectors: Selected Aggregates.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Trade was 6.68349 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Trade reached a record high of 7.20500 in November of 1987 and a record low of 0.00000 in February of 1985. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Trade - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates (EMVMACROINTEREST) from Jan 1985 to May 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Inflation was 29.03860 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Inflation reached a record high of 29.03860 in April of 2025 and a record low of 1.96528 in November of 2003. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Inflation - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Trade (EMVMACROTRADE) from Jan 1985 to May 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, trade, and USA.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates was 13.82791 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates reached a record high of 23.32740 in October of 1987 and a record low of 1.74079 in May of 2017. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Other Financial Indicators was 0.46093 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Other Financial Indicators reached a record high of 4.51730 in October of 2008 and a record low of 0.00000 in April of 1996. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Other Financial Indicators - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

FG: Changes in Vol Acct: Less: Statistical Discrepancy data was reported at 33.972 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -39.446 USD bn for Dec 2017. FG: Changes in Vol Acct: Less: Statistical Discrepancy data is updated quarterly, averaging -0.042 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 45.710 USD bn in Sep 2008 and a record low of -85.369 USD bn in Mar 2015. FG: Changes in Vol Acct: Less: Statistical Discrepancy data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB079: Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: Federal Government.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Real Estate Markets was 12.44512 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Real Estate Markets reached a record high of 34.48836 in September of 2008 and a record low of 1.87857 in October of 2017. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Real Estate Markets - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Labor Markets was 18.43721 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Labor Markets reached a record high of 24.55960 in March of 2020 and a record low of 1.81916 in March of 1985. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Labor Markets - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Consumer Spending And Sentiment was 6.91395 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Consumer Spending And Sentiment reached a record high of 11.20747 in September of 2001 and a record low of 0.00000 in December of 2024. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Consumer Spending And Sentiment - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

This statistic shows the projections of the macroeconomic effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on the United States economy in 2030. As a result of an ambitious TTIP implementation this model predicts a 0.4 percent growth in U.S. GDP over baseline in 2030.