The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in January 2025 after growing by 0.4 percent in December. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 3.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.
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Explore the role of automation in enhancing productivity and economic growth in the UK, with a focus on industrial robots and technology investments.
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These are datasets of economic sentiments derived from Uk newspapers using a dictionary and support vector machines. For more information on the application refer to :
Rambaccussing, D. and Kwiatkowski, A., 2020. Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), pp.1501-1516.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207020300595
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
The statistic shows GDP per capita in the United Kingdom from 1987 to 2020, with projections up until 2029. In 2020, GDP per capita in the United Kingdom was at around 40,230.55 US dollars. The same year, the total UK population amounted to about 67.26 million people. The United Kingdom is among the leading countries in a world GDP ranking.Falling unemployment in a time of recessionGDP is a useful indicator when it comes to measuring the state of a nation’s economy. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP per capita equals exactly the GDI (gross domestic income) per capita and is not a measure of an individual’s personal income.As can be seen clearly in the statistic, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the United Kingdom is beginning to increase, albeit not to pre-recession levels. The UK is beginning to see signs of an economic recovery, though as of yet it remains unclear what sort of recovery this is. Questions have been raised as to whether the growth being seen is the right sort of growth for a well balanced recovery across the necessary sectors. An interesting oddity occurred in the United Kingdom for nine months in 2012, which saw a decreasing unemployment occurring at the same time as dip in nationwide economic productivity. This seems like good - if not unusual - news, but could be indicative of people entering part-time employment. It could also suggest that labor productivity is falling, meaning that the UK would be less competitive as a nation. The figures continue to rise, however, with an increase in employment in the private sector. With the rate of inflation in the UK impacting everyone’s daily lives, it is becoming increasingly difficult for vulnerable groups to maintain a decent standard of living.
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The UK government invests £2.5 billion to support the steel industry, modernize production, and safeguard jobs in key regions.
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AstraZeneca has abandoned plans for a £450m vaccine facility in the UK, highlighting economic and funding challenges. Learn about the implications for UK's life sciences sector.
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Private Investment in the United Kingdom decreased to -3.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 1.90 percent in the third quarter of 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Business Investment- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Apparel data was reported at 1.659 USD mn in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.158 USD mn for Apr 2018. United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Apparel data is updated monthly, averaging 1.731 USD mn from Jan 1996 (Median) to May 2018, with 269 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.725 USD mn in Oct 1997 and a record low of 0.478 USD mn in Jan 2012. United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Apparel data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.JA110: Trade Statistics: United Kingdom: Imports: CIF: SITC.
These estimates do not yet incorporate the latest scheduled revisions and rebasing to 2022 prices from the ONS National Accounts Blue Book 2024. Based on the impact to our early indicator of GVA, our less robust but more timely series, and analysis of National Accounts GVA at industry division level we expect these revisions may have a larger effect on DCMS sector GVA than usual.
The next edition of these statistics will be published on 19 December 2024 as a tables-only release to be followed in January 2025 by a full release including estimates for tourism.
These Economic Estimates are National Statistics used to provide an estimate of the contribution of DCMS sectors to the UK economy, measured by GVA (gross value added), and separately for the digital sector.
This is the first release of annual estimates for 2021, and provisional annual estimates for 2022.
These statistics cover the contributions of the following DCMS sectors to the UK economy;
Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions and that several cultural sector industries are simultaneously creative industries.
The release also includes estimates for the audio visual sector and computer games subsector.
In 2022, provisional estimates show that included DCMS sectors (excluding tourism due to data lags) contributed £169.4 billion to the UK economy. This was 7.7% of total UK GVA, compared to 7.2% in 2019.
These statistics also cover the contributions of the following digital sectors to the UK economy
Users should note that there is overlap between these two sectors’ definitions. Specifically: the telecoms sector sits wholly within the digital sector.
The release also includes estimates for the audio visual sector and computer games subsector.
In 2022, provisional estimates show that the digital sector contributed £158.3 billion to the UK economy. This was 7.2% of total UK GVA, compared to 7.1% in 2021 (measured in current prices).
A definition for each sector is available in the tables published alongside this release. Further information on all these sectors is available in the associated technical report along with details of methods and data limitations.
First published on 15 February 2024.
DCMS aims to continuously improve the quality of estimates and better meet user needs. Feedback and responses should be sent to DCMS via email at evidence@dcms.gov.uk.
These official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) in June 2019. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the https://code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/" class="govuk-link">Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled accredited official statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.
Our statistical practice is regulated by the OSR. OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.
You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailing evidence@dcms.gov.uk. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.
The responsible analyst for this release is Rachel Moyce. For further details about the estimates, or to be added to a distribution list for future updates
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The UK and Saudi Arabia are set to sign a critical minerals cooperation agreement to bolster supply chains and boost economic ties, enhancing UK's access to essential resources.
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Ireland Exports: EU excl UK: Other Manufactured Articles data was reported at 442.877 EUR mn in May 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 486.714 EUR mn for Apr 2018. Ireland Exports: EU excl UK: Other Manufactured Articles data is updated monthly, averaging 332.379 EUR mn from Jan 2000 (Median) to May 2018, with 221 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 531.805 EUR mn in Mar 2016 and a record low of 176.762 EUR mn in Aug 2006. Ireland Exports: EU excl UK: Other Manufactured Articles data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Statistics Office of Ireland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ireland – Table IE.JA002: Exports: by Main Trade Partner and Standard International Trade Classification.
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United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Plastics data was reported at 22.211 USD mn in Sep 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 24.420 USD mn for Aug 2018. United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Plastics data is updated monthly, averaging 19.063 USD mn from Jan 1996 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 273 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 67.135 USD mn in Feb 1999 and a record low of 10.214 USD mn in Jan 1996. United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Plastics data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.JA110: Trade Statistics: United Kingdom: Imports: CIF: SITC.
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Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 2.80 percent in February from 3 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Apparel, of Textile Fabrics data was reported at 2.546 USD mn in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.574 USD mn for Apr 2018. United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Apparel, of Textile Fabrics data is updated monthly, averaging 3.895 USD mn from Jan 1996 (Median) to May 2018, with 269 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 27.207 USD mn in Sep 2001 and a record low of 0.851 USD mn in Apr 2010. United States Imports: CIF: 3-Digit: UK: Articles of Apparel, of Textile Fabrics data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.JA110: Trade Statistics: United Kingdom: Imports: CIF: SITC.
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This dataset contains news headlines relevant to key forex pairs: AUDUSD, EURCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. The data was extracted from reputable platforms Forex Live and FXstreet over a period of 86 days, from January to May 2023. The dataset comprises 2,291 unique news headlines. Each headline includes an associated forex pair, timestamp, source, author, URL, and the corresponding article text. Data was collected using web scraping techniques executed via a custom service on a virtual machine. This service periodically retrieves the latest news for a specified forex pair (ticker) from each platform, parsing all available information. The collected data is then processed to extract details such as the article's timestamp, author, and URL. The URL is further used to retrieve the full text of each article. This data acquisition process repeats approximately every 15 minutes.
To ensure the reliability of the dataset, we manually annotated each headline for sentiment. Instead of solely focusing on the textual content, we ascertained sentiment based on the potential short-term impact of the headline on its corresponding forex pair. This method recognizes the currency market's acute sensitivity to economic news, which significantly influences many trading strategies. As such, this dataset could serve as an invaluable resource for fine-tuning sentiment analysis models in the financial realm.
We used three categories for annotation: 'positive', 'negative', and 'neutral', which correspond to bullish, bearish, and hold sentiments, respectively, for the forex pair linked to each headline. The following Table provides examples of annotated headlines along with brief explanations of the assigned sentiment.
Examples of Annotated Headlines
Forex Pair
Headline
Sentiment
Explanation
GBPUSD
Diminishing bets for a move to 12400
Neutral
Lack of strong sentiment in either direction
GBPUSD
No reasons to dislike Cable in the very near term as long as the Dollar momentum remains soft
Positive
Positive sentiment towards GBPUSD (Cable) in the near term
GBPUSD
When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBPUSD
Neutral
Poses a question and does not express a clear sentiment
JPYUSD
Appropriate to continue monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation target with wage growth
Positive
Monetary easing from Bank of Japan (BoJ) could lead to a weaker JPY in the short term due to increased money supply
USDJPY
Dollar rebounds despite US data. Yen gains amid lower yields
Neutral
Since both the USD and JPY are gaining, the effects on the USDJPY forex pair might offset each other
USDJPY
USDJPY to reach 124 by Q4 as the likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains
Negative
USDJPY is expected to reach a lower value, with the USD losing value against the JPY
AUDUSD
<p>RBA Governor Lowe’s Testimony High inflation is damaging and corrosive </p>
Positive
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expresses concerns about inflation. Typically, central banks combat high inflation with higher interest rates, which could strengthen AUD.
Moreover, the dataset includes two columns with the predicted sentiment class and score as predicted by the FinBERT model. Specifically, the FinBERT model outputs a set of probabilities for each sentiment class (positive, negative, and neutral), representing the model's confidence in associating the input headline with each sentiment category. These probabilities are used to determine the predicted class and a sentiment score for each headline. The sentiment score is computed by subtracting the negative class probability from the positive one.
The British Election Longitudinal News Study 2015–2019 (BELNS) contains campaign coverage relating to three general elections: 2015, 2017, 2019 and the 2016 EU referendum. Media included are national newspapers, local newspapers, television and radio news. The print newspaper component tracks topic and general election candidate coverage across 46 national and local sources, including actor-level sentiment in the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections. The television and radio component tracks topic and general election candidate coverage across 24national and local sources, including actor-level sentiment in the 2017 and 2019 general elections and the 2016 EU referendum. For issues, the data are at the outlet-day level on topics that correspond to mii, the “SINGLE MOST important issues facing the country” asked in all waves of the British Election Study Panels 2014 to 2023 (Fieldhouse et al. 2019) as open-ended response items. The unit of analysis is the news source with repeated measures for each day during the study period, with variables corresponding to election period (GE2015, GE2017, GE2019, Brexit), and topics. For the candidate data, the unit of analysis is the candidate standing for election (or political figure during the referendum) and the variables relate to: election period (GE2015, GE2017, GE2019) or the EU Referendum in 2016, number of stories in which candidate was mentioned across all sources, as well as sentiment per source using different measures.
This project gathered data on media coverage of the 2019 general election, with a view to developing a longitudinal media data file that combines our database of media news coverage of the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections, and of the 2016 EU Referendum. These data provide an opportunity to assess and understand the influence of media in British politics. This opportunity comes at a critical point in British politics, with a country divided by the new Brexit cleavage; more extreme parties whose moderates have been "hollowed out" by deselections and retirements; an increasingly hostile environment accompanied by incivility and a "coarsening" of political debate; and growing salience of local concerns driven by austerity politics.
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Core consumer prices in the United Kingdom increased 3.50 percent in February of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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India Imports: UK: Plastic & Articles data was reported at 114.040 USD mn in 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 121.650 USD mn for 2017. India Imports: UK: Plastic & Articles data is updated yearly, averaging 68.450 USD mn from Mar 1997 (Median) to 2018, with 22 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 136.220 USD mn in 2016 and a record low of 26.190 USD mn in 2001. India Imports: UK: Plastic & Articles data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The data is categorized under Global Database’s India – Table IN.JAC024: Foreign Trade: Harmonized System 2 Digits: United Kingdom.
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Money Supply M0 in the United Kingdom increased to 97412 GBP Million in January from 97250 GBP Million in December of 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Money Supply M0 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in January 2025 after growing by 0.4 percent in December. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 3.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.