U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

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To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

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Image credit: DATABASE – Computer Owner, “World Map,” Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0.

Overview

Key macro indicators for 10 economies from 2015 to 2024. Countries: USA, CHN, JPN, DEU, IND, GBR, FRA, BRA, CAN, KOR.

• Rows: 500
• Columns: 4
• Missing cells: 12 total in the value column
• Format: long table by country, indicator, year

File

• global_economic_indicators_2015_2024.csv

Indicators

• NY.GDP.MKTP.CD - GDP in current USD
• SP.POP.TOTL - Population total
• SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS - Unemployment rate percent
• FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG - Inflation rate percent
• IT.NET.USER.ZS - Internet users percent

Columns

• country - ISO3 code
• indicator - readable name as above
• year - calendar year
• value - numeric value, may be missing for some country-year cells

Quick facts from EDA

• Minimal missingness concentrated in value
• Year range 2015 to 2024
• Mixed scales: GDP is large in USD, other indicators are percentages

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 3.80 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Google Search Trends: Economic Measures: Short-Time Working data was reported at 0.000 Score in 29 Nov 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Score for 28 Nov 2025. Google Search Trends: Economic Measures: Short-Time Working data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Score from Dec 2021 (Median) to 29 Nov 2025, with 1460 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 Score in 06 Jul 2024 and a record low of 0.000 Score in 29 Nov 2025. Google Search Trends: Economic Measures: Short-Time Working data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Google Trends. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Moldova – Table MD.Google.GT: Google Search Trends: by Categories.

In 2023, the gross domestic product in the European Union grew by 0.8 percent, as economic stagnation and high inflation caused by the Russia-Ukraine war impacted European economies. The European Commission forecasts that the European economy will have grown by 0.9 percent in 2024, continuing the trend registered in the previous year. This represents slow economic growth after the post-pandemic resurgence, yet avoids the recession many commentators warned the EU might slip into. Growth is forecast to increase again in 2025, climbing to 1.5 percent—a figure considered low by historical EU standards, excluding periods of economic crisis.

This dataset contains macroeconomic indicators of Azerbaijan for the period of 2017 to 2024. The data was sourced from the official website of the [State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan] It provides comprehensive figures related to the country's economic and social development, including gross domestic product (GDP), industry output, trade data, population statistics, and other key economic metrics. This dataset is ideal for: - Economic analysis and forecasting - Research on macroeconomic trends - Visualizations and data-driven storytelling - Machine learning models for predictive analysis of economic indicators

In 2024 the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States increased by 2.8 percent compared to 2023.
What does GDP growth mean? Essentially, the annual GDP of the U.S. is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country over a given year. On the surface, an increase in GDP therefore means that more goods and services have been produced between one period than another. In the case of annualized GDP, it is compared to the previous year. In 2023, for example, the U.S. GDP grew 2.5 percent compared to 2022. Countries with highest GDP growth rate Although the United States has by far the largest GDP of any country, it does not have the highest GDP growth, nor the highest GDP at purchasing power parity. In 2021, Libya had the highest growth in GDP, growing more than 177 percent compared to 2020. Furthermore, Luxembourg had the highest GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, a better measure of living standards than nominal or real GDP.

According to projections by staff of the Eurosystem - the group of central banks of countries which use the Euro as their currency - the annual inflation rate of the Eurozone is set to decline sharply, halving from 5.4 percent in 2023 to 2.1 percent in 2025, with more gradual declines in 2026 and 2027. This decline in the rate of increase of the price level in the Eurozone is being driven by comparatively low inflation in energy prices, which stands in sharp contrast to the situation of the EU in 2022, when the price of energy skyrocketed due to the sanctions placed on Russia in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine. Food price inflation - which was a key driver of inflation in 2023, standing at over 10 percent - is also contributing to the drop in the inflation rate, as a sharp fall to 3.0 percent is forecast for 2025.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States was worth 29184.89 billion US dollars in 2024, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of the United States represents 27.49 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides - United States GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

View economic output, reported as the nominal value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States is expected to grow by just over two percent in 2025. Beyond that, growth is projected to ease, slipping from roughly 2.8 percent in 2024 to around 1.8 percent by 2030. The softer outlook points to an economy that is still expanding, but at a more subdued pace. Is U.S. debt sustainable? The U.S. economy continues to grapple with growing levels of public debt. The national debt is anticipated to reach approximately 122.5 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting ongoing fiscal pressures. The U.S. is not alone in it high debt-to-GDP ratio. Other developed economies, including Japan, Singapore, and Italy, currently maintain even higher public debt burdens. Such levels could constrain future economic growth and narrow the range of policy options available to governments. Consumer sentiment in flux The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, a key gauge of confidence in the economy. In November 2025, it stood at 51, its lowest level since June 2022. Based on monthly surveys of households, it tracks consumers views on personal finances, buying conditions, and the broader economic climate.

Google Search Trends: Online Classroom: Zoom data was reported at 1.000 Score in 24 Nov 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.000 Score for 23 Nov 2024. Google Search Trends: Online Classroom: Zoom data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Score from Dec 2021 (Median) to 24 Nov 2024, with 1090 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 Score in 21 Apr 2023 and a record low of 0.000 Score in 10 Nov 2024. Google Search Trends: Online Classroom: Zoom data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Google Trends. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Bulgaria – Table BG.Google.GT: Google Search Trends: by Categories.

Singapore was the leading country in the Globalization Index 2024 in the field of economic globalization. The 2024 edition of the index uses data from the year 2022. Belgium and the Netherlands followed in the places behind. The era of globalization The beginning of the current era of increasing economic globalization was signaled by the creation of the Bretton Woods institutions toward the end of the Second World War. These institutions acted as the foundation for the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization. The institutions, and their modern equivalents, sought to reduce the barriers on international trade in goods, services and capital markets. In the decades following their inception international trade has skyrocketed to become a cornerstone of the international economy, as demonstrated by trends in global export volume of trade in goods from 1950. Economic globalization Countries that are perceived as more economically globalized are those with low tariffs on imports, more free-trade agreements, regulation that accommodates foreign investment and lower non-tariff barriers to trade such as safety regulations on imports. However, economic globalization fails to capture the entire picture in regards to globalization processes and their impact on countries. As such, analysts have placed attention on the social and political effects on globalization as seen in the index for social globalization and index for political organization. To see the combined results of the multiple globalization indexes see the Top 100 countries in the Globalization Index.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

French Polynesia Google Search Trends: Online Classroom: Zoom data was reported at 0.000 Score in 23 Nov 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.000 Score for 22 Nov 2024. French Polynesia Google Search Trends: Online Classroom: Zoom data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Score from Dec 2021 (Median) to 23 Nov 2024, with 1089 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 42.000 Score in 02 Feb 2022 and a record low of 0.000 Score in 23 Nov 2024. French Polynesia Google Search Trends: Online Classroom: Zoom data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Google Trends. The data is categorized under Global Database’s French Polynesia – Table PF.Google.GT: Google Search Trends: by Categories.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has experienced sharply rising then falling inflation alongside persistent labor market imbalances. This Economic Commentary interprets these macroeconomic dynamics, as represented by the Beveridge and Phillips curves, through the lens of a macroeconomic model. It uses the structure of the model to rationalize the debate about whether the US economy can expect a hard or soft landing. The model is surprised by the resiliency of the labor market as the US economy experienced disinflation. We suggest that the model’s limited ability to capture this resiliency is a feature of using a linear model to forecast the historically unprecedented movements seen after the pandemic among inflation, unemployment, and vacancy rates. We explain how, by adjusting the model to mimic congestion in a tight labor market and greater wage and price flexibility in a high-inflation environment, as during the post-pandemic period, the model can then capture what has been a path consistent with a soft landing.

Economic Capital Modeling Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the Global Economic Capital Modeling market size was valued at $3.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $8.9 billion by 2033, expanding at a robust CAGR of 12.1% during 2024–2033. The primary driver for this impressive growth is the escalating demand for advanced risk management frameworks across financial institutions worldwide, as they strive to comply with evolving regulatory standards and enhance decision-making capabilities. As organizations grapple with increasing market volatility and complex regulatory environments, the adoption of sophisticated economic capital modeling solutions is becoming indispensable for ensuring financial stability and optimizing capital allocation. This market is further propelled by the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies, which enable more accurate risk quantification and scenario analysis, thus empowering stakeholders to make data-driven decisions in an ever-changing economic landscape.

Regional Outlook

North America currently commands the largest share of the Economic Capital Modeling market, accounting for over 38% of total global revenue in 2024. This dominance is attributed to the region’s mature financial services sector, early adoption of cutting-edge financial technologies, and the presence of stringent regulatory frameworks such as Dodd-Frank and Basel III. Major financial institutions and insurance companies in the United States and Canada have heavily invested in economic capital modeling solutions to strengthen their risk management capabilities and ensure regulatory compliance. Additionally, North America’s well-established IT infrastructure and the presence of leading software vendors have accelerated the deployment of both on-premises and cloud-based modeling solutions, further consolidating the region’s leadership position in the global market.

Asia Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing region in the Economic Capital Modeling market, projected to register an impressive CAGR of 15.6% from 2024 to 2033. This rapid expansion is driven by the increasing digitization of banking and insurance sectors, coupled with rising awareness about the importance of robust risk management practices in emerging economies such as China, India, and Southeast Asia. Governments and regulatory bodies across the region are implementing more stringent capital adequacy norms, compelling financial institutions to adopt advanced economic capital modeling solutions. Furthermore, the influx of foreign direct investments, the proliferation of fintech startups, and the region’s large unbanked population are fueling demand for innovative risk management tools, positioning Asia Pacific as a key growth engine for the global market.

In contrast, regions such as Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are witnessing gradual but steady adoption of economic capital modeling solutions. These emerging economies face unique challenges, including limited access to skilled professionals, underdeveloped IT infrastructure, and regulatory ambiguity. However, localized demand is rising as financial institutions in these regions seek to modernize their risk management frameworks and align with international regulatory standards. Policy reforms, government incentives, and collaborations with global technology providers are gradually overcoming adoption barriers, paving the way for incremental growth. Nonetheless, market penetration remains lower compared to developed regions, reflecting the need for targeted capacity-building initiatives and tailored solutions that address regional nuances.

Report Scope