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Graph and download economic data for JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty (JLNUM3M) from Jul 1960 to Apr 2025 about uncertainty, 3-month, and USA.
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Graph and download economic data for JLN 1-Year Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty (JLNUM12M) from Jul 1960 to Apr 2025 about 1-year, uncertainty, and USA.
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This paper uses a large vector autoregression to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies. We provide evidence of significant commonality in macroeconomic volatility, with one common factor driving strong comovement across economies and variables. We measure uncertainty and its effects with a large model in which the error volatilities feature a factor structure containing time-varying global components and idiosyncratic components. Global uncertainty contemporaneously affects both the levels and volatilities of the included variables. Our new estimates of international macroeconomic uncertainty indicate that surprise increases in uncertainty reduce output and stock prices, adversely affect labor market conditions, and in some economies lead to an easing of monetary policy.
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Key information about United States Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: United States
In 2020, almost half of Americans believed that cash or money markets funds were the best financial defense against economic uncertainty. Only eight percent of Americans thought that index funds were good at providing necessary financial security. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant uncertainty and volatility across the global economy, and the majority of adults were uncertain about their country's ability to recover as of April 2020.
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How adverse is the impact of fiscal policy uncertainty on economic and financial variables? To answer this question, we construct a novel cross-country database of news-based fiscal policy uncertainty indicators. Importantly, we track fiscal events that attract global attention, which we refer to as “global” fiscal policy uncertainty. We find that heightened fiscal policy uncertainty triggers contractionary effects, lowering industrial production in both advanced and emerging market economies. It also raises sovereign borrowing costs, generates synchronous movements in global financial variables including risk aversion, and strengthens the US dollar, even after accounting for US monetary policy shocks.
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Economic Policy Uncertainty for United States was 320.74000 Index in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Economic Policy Uncertainty for United States reached a record high of 1434.60000 in May of 2025 and a record low of 3.32000 in August of 2015. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Economic Policy Uncertainty for United States - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.
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Graph and download economic data for Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States (USEPUINDXD) from 1985-01-01 to 2025-06-23 about uncertainty, academic data, indexes, and USA.
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Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index was at its highest in May 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic brought global economic uncertainty. The index was also **** after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moreover, the index rose sharply in November 2024 after Donald Trump was re-elected as President of the United States. Trump promised to impose trade tariffs against a range of countries, and did so against Canada, Mexico, and China in February 2024. The GEPU index is constructed by measuring how often the leading newspapers mention economic policy uncertainty in their articles.
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty. Our estimates display significant independent variations from popular uncertainty proxies, suggesting that much of the variation in the proxies is not driven by uncertainty. Quantitatively important uncertainty episodes appear far more infrequently than indicated by popular uncertainty proxies, but when they do occur, they are larger, more persistent, and are more correlated with real activity. Our estimates provide a benchmark to evaluate theories for which uncertainty shocks play a role in business cycles. (JEL C53, D81, E32, G12, G35, L25)
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This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low-frequency macroeconomic variables representative of the US economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allow us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. We find that credit and labor market variables react the most to uncertainty shocks in that they exhibit a prolonged negative response to such shocks. When looking at detailed investment subcategories, our estimates suggest that the most irreversible investment projects are the most affected by uncertainty shocks. We also find that the responses of macroeconomic variables to uncertainty shocks are relatively similar across single-frequency and mixed-frequency data models, suggesting that the temporal aggregation bias is not acute in this context.
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Key information about Australia Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
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Graph and download economic data for Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Current Price Adjusted GDP (GEPUCURRENT) from Jan 1997 to Apr 2025 about uncertainty, adjusted, GDP, indexes, and price.
A global game developer survey in 2023 found that over half of respondents dealt with economic uncertainty by targeting new markets with an existing IP. Almost the same share of respondents claimed to handle situations like these by consistently delivering new game content to keep existing players engaged.
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Supplementary information files for the article Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises
Abstract: This paper studies the US and global economic fundamentals that exacerbate emerging stock markets volatility and can be considered as systemic risk factors increasing financial stability vulnerabilities. We apply the bivariate HEAVY system of daily and intra-daily volatility equations enriched with powers, leverage, and macro-effects that improve its forecasting accuracy significantly. Our macro-augmented asymmetric power HEAVY model estimates the inflammatory effect of US uncertainty and infectious disease news impact on equities alongside global credit and commodity factors on emerging stock index realized volatility. Our study further demonstrates the power of the economic uncertainty channel, showing that higher US policy uncertainty levels increase the leverage effects and the impact from the common macro-financial proxies on emerging markets’ financial volatility. Lastly, we provide evidence on the crucial role of both financial and health crisis events (the 2008 global financial turmoil and the recent Covid-19 pandemic) in raising markets’ turbulence and amplifying the volatility macro-drivers impact, as well.
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This package contains the program codes and data files necessary to replicate
the results of the spillover analysis in
Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Euro Area:
Cross-country Spillovers and Macroeconomic Impact
By Volker Clausen, Alexander Schloesser and Christopher Thiem.
Please cite this paper if you use any of this material for your own research.
Also, please do not redistribute or circulate this package without the author's consent.
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United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Trade policy was 5886.23051 Index in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Trade policy reached a record high of 5886.23051 in March of 2025 and a record low of 6.46728 in July of 2023. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Trade policy - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.
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The daily news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is based on newspapers in the United States.
For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2012), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf)
This data is mainly used to analyze the risk correlation among economic uncertainly,geopolitical risk and energy price,and can also be applied to the TVP-VAR model to analyze the correlation between different variables using the time-varying parameter model,which has great potential for reuse. The risk relationship between economic uncertainly.At the same time,since it is macroeconomic data,it does not involve any moral and ethical issues.
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Graph and download economic data for JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty (JLNUM3M) from Jul 1960 to Apr 2025 about uncertainty, 3-month, and USA.