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This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio
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TwitterThe market value of bubble gum in Romania peaked in 2019 at approximately ** million Romanian lei. It was estimated that by 2021, the bubble gum market value would drop to ** million Romanian lei.
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Global Bubble Balls market size 2021 was recorded $304.092 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $393.9 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Bubble Balls market size will become $660.918. Bubble Balls market will be growing at a CAGR of 6.683% during 2025 to 2033.
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Global Pet Bubble Backpack market size 2021 was recorded $308.896 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $415.6 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Pet Bubble Backpack market size will become $752.318. Pet Bubble Backpack market will be growing at a CAGR of 7.7% during 2025 to 2033.
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Global Bubble Memory market size 2021 was recorded $854.613 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $1140.8 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Bubble Memory market size will become $2032.78. Bubble Memory market will be growing at a CAGR of 7.488% during 2025 to 2033.
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Global Air Bubble Bags market size 2021 was recorded $1138.82 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $1347.8 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Air Bubble Bags market size will become $1887.85. Air Bubble Bags market will be growing at a CAGR of 4.302% during 2025 to 2033.
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Global Bubble Food & Beverages Market size was valued at USD 4.07 billion in 2021 and is poised to grow from USD 4.45 billion in 2022 to USD 8.35 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 9.4% during the forecast period (2023-2030).
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TwitterAs of June 17, 2024, the most shorted stock was for, the American holographic technology services provider, MicroCloud Hologram Inc., with 66.64 percent of their total float having been shorted. This is a change from mid-January 2021, when video game retailed GameStop had an incredible 121.07 percent of their available shares in a short position. In effect this means that investors had 'borrowed' more shares (with a future promise to return them) than the total number of shares available for public trading. Owing to this behavior of professional investors, retail investors enacted a campaign to drive up the stock price of Gamestop, leading to losses of billions when investors had to repurchase the stock they had borrowed. At this time, a similar – but less effective – social media campaign was also carried out for the stock price of cinema operator AMC, and the price of silver. What is short selling? Short selling is essentially where an investor bets on a share price falling by: borrowing a number of shares selling these shares while the price is still high; purchasing the same number again once the price falls; then returning the borrowed shares at a profit. Of course, a profit will only be made if the share price does fall; should the share price rise the investor will then need to purchase the shares back at a higher price, and thus incur a loss. Short selling can lead to some very large profits in a short amount of time, with Tesla stock generating over one billion dollars in short sell profits during the first week of March 2020 alone, owing to the financial crash caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. However, owing to the short-term, opportunistic nature of short selling, these returns look less impressive when considered as net profits from short sell positions over the full year. The risks of short selling Short selling carries greater risks than traditional investments, and for this reason financial advisors often recommend against this strategy for ‘retail’ (i.e. non-professional) investors. The reason for this is that losses from short selling are potentially uncapped, whereas losses from traditional investments are limited to the initial cost. For example, if someone purchases 100 dollars of shares, the maximum they can lose is the 100 dollars the spent on those shares. However, say someone borrows 100 dollars of shares instead, betting on the price falling. If these shares are then sold for 100 dollars but the price subsequently rises, the losses could greatly exceed the initial investment should the price rise to, say, 500 dollars. The risks of short selling can be seen by looking again at Tesla, with the company causing the greatest losses over 2020 from short selling at over 40 billion U.S. dollars.
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Global Ultrasonic Non invasive Air Bubble Detectors market size 2021 was recorded $192.9 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $273 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Ultrasonic Non invasive Air Bubble Detectors market size will become $546.5. Ultrasonic Non invasive Air Bubble Detectors market will be growing at a CAGR of 9.064% during 2025 to 2033.
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Global bubble tea market worth at USD 4.08 Billion in 2024, is expected to surpass USD 9.97 Billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 9.35% from 2025 to 2034.
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Dividend-Payout-Ratio Time Series for Sealed Air Corporation. Sealed Air Corporation provides packaging solutions in the United States and internationally, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments: Food and Protective. The Food segment offers integrated packaging materials and automation equipment solutions to provide food safety, shelf life extension, reduce food waste, automate processes, and optimize total cost for food processors in the fresh red meat, smoked and processed meats, poultry, seafood, plant-based, fluids and liquids and cheese markets under the CRYOVAC, CRYOVAC Grip & Tear, CRYOVAC Darfresh, LIQUIBOX, Simple Steps, and Optidure brands. This segment sells its solutions directly to customers through its sales, marketing, and customer service personnel. The Protective segment provides shrink films, bagging systems, foam, inflatable, and suspension and retention packaging solutions to protect goods to e-commerce, consumer goods, pharmaceutical and medical devices, and industrial manufacturing markets under the SEALED AIR, BUBBLE WRAP, AUTOBAG, Instapak, and Korrvu brands. This segment sells its solutions through supply distributors, as well as directly to fabricators, original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, logistics partners, and e-commerce/fulfillment operations. Sealed Air Corporation was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
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Global Bubble Tea Cup market size 2021 was recorded $2058.18 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $2899.21 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Bubble Tea Cup market size will become $5752.73. Bubble Tea Cup market will be growing at a CAGR of 8.943% during 2025 to 2033.
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The crash barrier systems market share is expected to increase by USD 1.01 billion from 2020 to 2025, and the market’s growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 2.22%.
This crash barrier systems market research report provides valuable insights on the post COVID-19 impact on the market, which will help companies evaluate their business approaches. Furthermore, this report extensively covers crash barrier systems market segmentations by product (semi-rigid barriers, rigid barriers, and flexible barriers), geography (North America, Europe, APAC, MEA, and South America), and application (roadside barriers, median barriers, bridge barriers, and work zone barriers). The crash barrier systems market report also offers information on several market vendors, including Arbus Ltd., Avon Barrier Corp. Ltd., Hill and Smith Holdings Plc, Lindsay Corp., Nucor Corp., NV Bekaert SA, Tata Steel Ltd., Transpo Inudstries Inc., Trinity Industries Inc., and Valmont Industries Inc. among others.
What will the Crash Barrier Systems Market Size be During the Forecast Period?
Download the Free Report Sample to Unlock the Crash Barrier Systems Market Size for the Forecast Period and Other Important Statistics
Crash Barrier Systems Market: Key Drivers, Trends, and Challenges
Based on our research output, there has been a negative impact on the market growth during and post COVID-19 era. The implementation of road safety programs is notably driving the crash barrier systems market growth, although factors such as concrete crash barrier performance limitations may impede market growth. Our research analysts have studied the historical data and deduced the key market drivers and the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the crash barrier systems industry. The holistic analysis of the drivers will help in deducing end goals and refining marketing strategies to gain a competitive edge.
Key Crash Barrier Systems Market Driver
One of the key factors driving the crash barrier systems market growth is the implementation of road safety programs. As roads remain the world's primary transportation mode, stringent road safety regulations are vital for the economic development of a country. The safety of pedestrians and vehicle owners, as well as efficient transportation, is a major factor that impacts the growth of a country or a region. Various road safety measures and solutions for improved traffic flow are studied and implemented by local authorities. Such solutions also include the use of crash barriers for pedestrian and vehicle safety. Crash barriers are designed to prevent vehicles from entering the roadside hazards. Road safety programs have a positive influence on various road safety products such as traffic lights, crash barriers, and signs and symbols. Most of the developing nations are taking necessary steps to reduce road accidents and fatalities by drafting effective road safety norms. Thus, growing road safety programs that aim to reduce the number of road fatalities help drive the global crash barrier systems market.
Key Crash Barrier Systems Market Trend
Development of products made of eco-friendly materials is the major trend influencing crash barrier systems market growth. Some crash barrier systems are made of PVC and rubber, owing to which they are hard to degrade and cause environmental pollution. Therefore, most of the governing bodies have framed stringent policies to curb pollution and promote the use of eco-friendly products, which has forced manufacturers to develop crash barrier systems using eco-friendly materials. Several manufacturers are using recycled rubber from the waste tire as raw material for manufacturing crash barrier systems such as guardrails, barricades, and flexible barriers. Similarly, some of the manufacturers are making use of an environmental coating to protect the guardrail from corrosion. Guardrails that are made of zinc-galvanized steel normally begin to corrode after 3-6 months due to dust and exhaust gas from cars. So, to make the corrosion-resistant most of the vendors are coating it with environment-friendly powder coatings. As stringent environmental safety policies are being implemented, the demand for crash barrier systems made of eco-friendly products will increase in the future.
Key Crash Barrier Systems Market Challenge
Concrete crash barrier performance limitations are one of the key challenges hindering the crash barrier systems market growth. Concrete crash barriers are rigid and fixed, and cannot be moved from one place to another. They are known for their low life-cycle costs and maintenance-free characteristics. These barriers are suitable for the roads with high heavy truck traffic and areas where sufficient median widths to place other barrier systems are not available. However, concrete crash barriers are more vulnerable to vehicle damage than steel barriers and have high installation costs compared with other types of ba
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Inventory-Turnover Time Series for Sealed Air Corporation. Sealed Air Corporation provides packaging solutions in the United States and internationally, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments: Food and Protective. The Food segment offers integrated packaging materials and automation equipment solutions to provide food safety, shelf life extension, reduce food waste, automate processes, and optimize total cost for food processors in the fresh red meat, smoked and processed meats, poultry, seafood, plant-based, fluids and liquids and cheese markets under the CRYOVAC, CRYOVAC Grip & Tear, CRYOVAC Darfresh, LIQUIBOX, Simple Steps, and Optidure brands. This segment sells its solutions directly to customers through its sales, marketing, and customer service personnel. The Protective segment provides shrink films, bagging systems, foam, inflatable, and suspension and retention packaging solutions to protect goods to e-commerce, consumer goods, pharmaceutical and medical devices, and industrial manufacturing markets under the SEALED AIR, BUBBLE WRAP, AUTOBAG, Instapak, and Korrvu brands. This segment sells its solutions through supply distributors, as well as directly to fabricators, original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, logistics partners, and e-commerce/fulfillment operations. Sealed Air Corporation was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
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This dataset accompanies the article: Hoyer, K., Zeisberger, S., Breugelmans, S. M., & Zeelenberg, M. (2021). Greed and individual trading behavior in experimental asset markets. Decision, 8(2), 80. Article abstract: Greed has been shown to be an important economic motive. Both the popular press as well as scientific articles have mentioned questionable practices by greedy bankers and investors as one of the root causes of the 2008 global financial crisis. In spite of these suggestions, there is as of yet no substantive empirical evidence for a contribution of greed to individual trading behavior. This article presents the result of 15 experimental asset markets in which we test the influence of greed on trading behavior. We do not find empirical support for the idea that greedier investors trade fundamentally differently from their less greedy counterparts in markets. These findings shed light on the role of greed in trading and the emergence of asset market bubbles in specific, and of the financial crisis in general. Directions for future research are discussed.
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In March 2024 Bitcoin BTC reached a new all-time high with prices exceeding 73000 USD marking a milestone for the cryptocurrency market This surge was due to the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ETFs in the United States allowing investors to access Bitcoin without directly holding it This development increased Bitcoin’s credibility and brought fresh demand from institutional investors echoing previous price surges in 2021 when Tesla announced its 15 billion investment in Bitcoin and Coinbase was listed on the Nasdaq By the end of 2022 Bitcoin prices dropped sharply to 15000 USD following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX and its bankruptcy which caused a loss of confidence in the market By August 2024 Bitcoin rebounded to approximately 64178 USD but remained volatile due to inflation and interest rate hikes Unlike fiat currency like the US dollar Bitcoin’s supply is finite with 21 million coins as its maximum supply By September 2024 over 92 percent of Bitcoin had been mined Bitcoin’s value is tied to its scarcity and its mining process is regulated through halving events which cut the reward for mining every four years making it harder and more energy-intensive to mine The next halving event in 2024 will reduce the reward to 3125 BTC from its current 625 BTC The final Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140 The energy required to mine Bitcoin has led to criticisms about its environmental impact with estimates in 2021 suggesting that one Bitcoin transaction used as much energy as Argentina Bitcoin’s future price is difficult to predict due to the influence of large holders known as whales who own about 92 percent of all Bitcoin These whales can cause dramatic market swings by making large trades and many retail investors still dominate the market While institutional interest has grown it remains a small fraction compared to retail Bitcoin is vulnerable to external factors like regulatory changes and economic crises leading some to believe it is in a speculative bubble However others argue that Bitcoin is still in its early stages of adoption and will grow further as more institutions and governments recognize its potential as a hedge against inflation and a store of value 2024 has also seen the rise of Bitcoin Layer 2 technologies like the Lightning Network which improve scalability by enabling faster and cheaper transactions These innovations are crucial for Bitcoin’s wider adoption especially for day-to-day use and cross-border remittances At the same time central bank digital currencies CBDCs are gaining traction as several governments including China and the European Union have accelerated the development of their own state-controlled digital currencies while Bitcoin remains decentralized offering financial sovereignty for those who prefer independence from government control The rise of CBDCs is expected to increase interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against these centralized currencies Bitcoin’s journey in 2024 highlights its growing institutional acceptance alongside its inherent market volatility While the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly boosted interest the market remains sensitive to events like exchange collapses and regulatory decisions With the limited supply of Bitcoin and improvements in its transaction efficiency it is expected to remain a key player in the financial world for years to come Whether Bitcoin is currently in a speculative bubble or on a sustainable path to greater adoption will ultimately be revealed over time.
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Global Alumina Bubble market size 2021 was recorded $484.621 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $591.6 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Alumina Bubble market size will become $881.616. Alumina Bubble market will be growing at a CAGR of 5.113% during 2025 to 2033.
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Everyone has looked at the stock market so I wasn't expecting to get excited about looking for patterns. But it's a good practice set to develop skills and learn new models. After working through a deep learning model, trying to predict the best-performing stocks of the next day, my most sophisticated model regressed toward the mean. I mean the exact mean. I was working with 446 stocks, training a model on the prior 30 days, and making a prediction on the next day. My model returned what it thought would be the best performing ten stocks, that I would then compare against the actual best performers. I ran the train/predict over 200 days, using six dense layers of 1,000 nodes on 100 epochs with EarlyStopping. When I calculated the mean of the predicted best 10's actual score, it was 223.04. I learned from this exercise that the yahoo data isn't predictive at the day-to-day scale and my best model was just flipping a coin. The Random Walk Hypothesis is the best explanation.
That's when I turned to another technique to try and make sense of the data. I had an intuitive hunch that when a stock starts to dive, there is an emotionally charged reaction, an irrational over-reaction, which will lead to a predictable rebound. Because my Keras model failed to produce results, I decided to spend some time answering the question: Is there a rebound after a dive? This isn't a complicated modeling technique. Instead of using data to predict an event, we choose an identifiable event and follow its performance forward. I chose the day's worst dive, but you could look for stocks that have consecutive days of growth, the day's best performer, stocks that lose 20% of their value over a 5 trading-day period, etc. Pick an event that you can define and describe and then look for it in the historical data. Look at your subset's performance against the rest of the market (ideally over the exact time window) and see if you can beat my 10X market growth!
I called my subset Unicorns because there were only 45 out of 1.3M records. They don't happen that often and nearly half lost value. But as a group, they showed a dependable rebound 10 and 20 days after the event. The most recent Unicorn was flagged on 4/14/21. Discovery (DISCA) was wrapped up in the Archegos bubble where this guy lost $20B in two days. Because it lost over half its value in the bubble, its relatively mild decline three weeks later put it in the Unicorn group. I'm not advocating a risky investment in a particular stock. Certainly, this one is unique because of its participation in an acute bubble. But the historical peers of this stock make it worth watching and doing some follow-up.
I have to give a shout-out to Bryan B. who continued to press at each dead end. The rebound isn't significant among all stocks, and he prompted the interest in comparing relative volatility. Special thanks to Ludo A. for playing mentor while I learned to code in Python. Happy pattern hunting!
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Vehicle Crash Test Equipment Market size was valued at USD 0.5 billion in 2021 and is poised to grow from USD 0.6 billion in 2022 to USD 0.86 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.2% in the forecast period (2023-2030).
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Global Bubble Tea Sealing Film market size 2021 was recorded $1107.67 Million whereas by the end of 2025 it will reach $1513.68 Million. According to the author, by 2033 Bubble Tea Sealing Film market size will become $2826.72. Bubble Tea Sealing Film market will be growing at a CAGR of 8.12% during 2025 to 2033.
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This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio