In 2024, Miami was the housing market most at risk, with a real estate bubble index score of 1.79. Tokyo and Zurich followed close behind with 1.67 and 1.51, respectively. Any market with an index score of 1.5 or higher was deemed to be a bubble risk zone.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost seven million after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to 4.8 million. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Housing markets are often characterized by price bubbles, and governments have instituted policies to stabilize them. Under this circumstance, this study addresses the following questions. (1) Does policy tightening change expectations in housing prices, revealing a regime change? (2) If so, what determines the housing market’s reaction to policy tightening? To answer these questions, we examine the effects of policy tightening that occurred in 2016 on the Chinese housing market where a price boom persisted in the post-2000 period. Using a log-periodic power law model and employing a modified multi-population genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we find that tightening policy in China did not cause a market crash; instead, shifting the Chinese housing market from faster-than-exponential growth to a soft landing. We attribute this regime shift to low sensitivity in the Chinese housing market to global perturbations. Our findings suggest that government policies can help stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions when implemented expediently. Moreover, policymakers should consider preparedness for the possibility of an economic crisis and other social needs (e.g., housing affordability) for overall social welfare when managing housing price bubbles.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q4 2024 about appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Home prices in the U.S. reach new heights The American housing market continues to show remarkable resilience, with the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reaching an all-time high of 325.78 in July 2024. This figure represents a significant increase from the index value of 166.24 recorded in January 2015, highlighting the substantial growth in home prices over the past decade. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index is based on the prices of single-family homes and is the leading indicator of the American housing market and one of the indicators of the state of the broader economy. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index series also includes S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index and S&P/Case Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index – measuring the home price changes in the major U.S. metropolitan areas, as well as twenty composite indices for the leading U.S. cities. Market fluctuations and recovery Despite the overall upward trend, the housing market has experienced some fluctuations in recent years. During the housing boom in 2021, the number of existing home sales reached the highest level since 2006. However, transaction volumes quickly plummeted, as the soaring interest rates and out-of-reach prices led to housing sentiment deteriorating. Factors influencing home prices Several factors have contributed to the rise in home prices, including a chronic supply shortage, the gradual decline in interest rates, and the spike in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2010), the construction of new homes declined dramatically. Although it has gradually increased since then, the number of new building permits, home starts, and completions are still shy from the levels before the crisis. With demand outweighing supply, competition for homes can be fierce, leading to bidding wars and soaring prices. The supply of existing homes is further constrained, as homeowners are less likely to sell and move homes due to the worsened lending conditions.

The foreclosure rate in the United States has experienced significant fluctuations over the past two decades, reaching its peak in 2010 at 2.23 percent following the financial crisis. Since then, the rate has steadily declined, with a notable drop to 0.11 percent in 2021 due to government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, the rate stood slightly higher at 0.23 percent but remained well below historical averages, indicating a relatively stable housing market. Impact of economic conditions on foreclosures The foreclosure rate is closely tied to broader economic trends and housing market conditions. During the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the share of non-performing mortgage loans climbed significantly, with loans 90 to 180 days past due reaching 4.6 percent. Since then, the share of seriously delinquent loans has dropped notably, demonstrating a substantial improvement in mortgage performance. Among other things, the improved mortgage performance has to do with changes in the mortgage approval process. Homebuyers are subject to much stricter lending standards, such as higher credit score requirements. These changes ensure that borrowers can meet their payment obligations and are at a lower risk of defaulting and losing their home. Challenges for potential homebuyers Despite the low foreclosure rates, potential homebuyers face significant challenges in the current market. Homebuyer sentiment worsened substantially in 2021 and remained low across all age groups through 2024, with the 45 to 64 age group expressing the most negative outlook. Factors contributing to this sentiment include high housing costs and various financial obligations. For instance, in 2023, 52 percent of non-homeowners reported that student loan expenses hindered their ability to save for a down payment.

The consumer price of housing in urban areas of the United States increased by over four percent in 2024. 2022 and 2023 saw the largest price increases on a year-over-year basis since 2000. Meanwhile, 2010 was the only year in which housing prices decreased. One of the main reasons for that may have been the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007. During that period, the value of new residential construction put in place in the U.S. stagnated.

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q4 2024 about sales, median, housing, and USA.

Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain were widely considered the Eurozone's weakest economies during the Great Recession and subsequent Eurozone debt crisis. These countries were grouped together due to the similarities in their economic crises, with much of them driven by house price bubbles which had inflated over the early 2000s, before bursting in 2007 due to the Global Financial Crisis. Entry into the Euro currency by 2002 had meant that banks could lend to house buyers in these countries at greatly reduced rates of interest.

This reduction in the cost of financing contributed to creating housing bubbles, which were further boosted by pro-cyclical housing policies among many of the countries' governments. In spite of these economies experiencing similar economic problems during the crisis, Italy and Portugal did not experience housing bubbles in the same way in which Greece, Ireland, and Spain did. In the latter countries, their real housing prices (which are adjusted for inflation) peaked in 2007, before quickly declining during the recession. In particular, house prices in Ireland dropped by over 40 percent from their peak in 2007 to 2011.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT (MSA) (ATNHPIUS25540Q) from Q4 1977 to Q4 2024 about Hartford, CT, appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?, PIIE Policy Brief 14-21. If you use the data, please cite as: Liu, Li-Gang. (2014). Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?. PIIE Policy Brief 14-21. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in Why China's housing policies have failed, PIIE Working Paper 23-5.

If you use the data, please cite as: Huang, Tianlei. 2023. Why China's housing policies have failed. PIIE Working Paper 23-5. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Building contractors and developers depend on various socio-economic factors, including property values, underlying sentiment in the housing market, the degree of optimism among downstream businesses and credit conditions. All of these drivers typically track in line with economic sentiment, with recent economic shocks spurring a difficult period for building contractors and developers. Nonetheless, the enduring need for building services, particularly to tackle housing shortages across the continent, ensures a strong foundation of work. Revenue is forecast to decline at a compound annual rate of 2.9% to €1.1 trillion over the five years through 2024. Building construction output recorded strong and consistent growth across Europe in the years leading up to the pandemic, buoyed by rising house prices and a return to economic stability as the effects of the financial crisis faded. Operational and supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic reversed the fortunes of building contractors and developers in 2020, as on-site activity tumbled and downstream clients either cancelled, froze or scaled back investment plans. Aided by the release of pent-up demand and supportive government policy, building construction output rebounded in 2021. Excess demand for key raw materials led to extended lead times during this period, while input costs recorded a further surge as a result of the effects of rapidly climbing energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Soaring costs and the impact of the economic slowdown on both the housing market and investor sentiment have led to a renewed slowdown in building construction activity across the continent. Revenue is forecast to decline by 1.5% in 2024. Revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 4.9% to €1.5 trillion over the five years through 2029. Activity is set to remain sluggish in the medium term, as weak economic growth continues to constrain investor sentiment and high borrowing costs hold back the housing market. Contractors and developers will increasingly rely on public sector support, including measures to boost the supply of new housing as countries seek to tackle severe housing shortages.

House prices in Spain are forecast to fall in 2024, after increasing by 1.2 percent in 2023. Nevertheless, prices are expected to pick up in 2025, with an increase of one percent. The Portuguese housing market, on the other hand, grew by 5.5 percent in 2023, but was forecast to contract in the next two years.

The Housing Affordability Index value in the United States plummeted in 2022, surpassing the historical record of 107.1 index points in 2006. In 2024, the housing affordability index measured 98.1 index points, making it the second-worst year for homebuyers since the start of the observation period. What does the Housing Affordability Index mean? The Housing Affordability Index uses data provided by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It measures whether a family earning the national median income can afford the monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced existing single-family home. An index value of 100 means that a family has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a home. The higher the index value, the more affordable a house is to a family. Key factors that drive the real estate market Income, house prices, and mortgage rates are some of the most important factors influencing homebuyer sentiment. When incomes increase, consumer power also increases. The median household income in the United States declined in 2022, affecting affordability. Additionally, mortgage interest rates have soared, adding to the financial burden of homebuyers. The sales price of existing single-family homes in the U.S. has increased year-on-year since 2011 and reached 389,000 U.S. dollars in 2023.

The Industrial Production Index (IPI) fell sharply in the United States during the Great Recession, reaching its lowest point in June 2009. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, during which a number of systemically critical financial institutions failed or came close to bankruptcy. The crisis in the financial sector quickly spread to the non-financial economy, where firms were adversely hit by the tightening of credit conditions and the drop in consumer confidence caused by the crisis. The largest monthly drop in the IPI came in September 2008, as Lehman Brothers collapsed and the U.S. government was forced to step in to backstop the financial sector. Industrial production would begin to recover in the Summer of 2009, but remained far below its pre-crisis levels.

Replication material for Jackelyn Hwang & Bina Patel Shrimali (2022) Shared and Crowded Housing in the Bay Area: Where Gentrification and the Housing Crisis Meet COVID-19, Housing Policy Debate, DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2022.2099934

Paper Abstract: Amid the growing affordable housing crisis and widespread gentrification over the last decade, people have been moving less than before and increasingly live in shared and often crowded households across the U.S. Crowded housing has various negative health implications, including stress, sleep disorders, and infectious diseases. Difference-in- difference analysis of a unique, large-scale longitudinal consumer credit database of over 450,000 San Francisco Bay Area residents from 2002 to 2020 shows gentrification affects the probability of residents shifting to crowded households across the socioeconomic spectrum but in different ways than expected. Gentrification is negatively associated with low- socioeconomic status (SES) residents’ probability of entering crowded households, and this is largely explained by increased shifts to crowded households in neighborhoods outside of major cities showing early signs of gentrification. Conversely, gentrification is associated with increases in the probability that middle-SES residents enter crowded households, primarily in Silicon Valley. Lastly, crowding is positively associated with COVID-19 case rates, beyond density and socioeconomic and racial composition in neighborhoods, although the role of gentrification remains unclear. Housing policies that mitigate crowding can serve as early interventions in displacement prevention and reducing health inequities.

The Crisis and Care Accommodation industry forms part of Australia's community welfare sector, and provides services for some of the most economically vulnerable people in Australian society, including children, those with long-term disabilities and the elderly. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis, a growing number of Australians were at increased risk of homelessness, with many experiencing financial hardship, persistent disadvantage and social exclusion. Stagnant wage growth in inflation-adjusted terms, heightened housing stress and associated incidences of family breakdown and family violence have boosted demand for crisis and care accommodation over the past few years. Given high inflation and rising rental costs, many of the industry’s clients have become increasingly vulnerable and their needs are also becoming more complex. Rising disability prevalence is creating additional challenges for residential care providers, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics finding that 5.5 million Australians had a disability in 2022. However, the ability to meet increased demand has not necessarily been matched by additional funding, constraining industry and profit growth. In light of these socio-economic variables and supply constraints, industry revenue growth is expected to be a modest 4.3% annualised over the five years through 2024-25 to $5.7 billion, including anticipated growth of 4.1% in the current year. Solid demand for residential care services is expected over the coming years, bolstered by strong demand for homelessness services in the face of ongoing rent costs and inflationary pressures. An ageing population is set to continue driving demand for palliative care and respite services. Government policies and associated regulatory reforms - including those stemming from the Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability - will dictate the industry's operating environment as the government looks to establish a roadmap for Australia's care and support economy. Industry growth rates will remain modest at 2.5% annualised over the five years through 2029-30, to reach $6.4 billion.

The average resale house price in Canada was forecast to reach nearly 836,000 Canadian dollars in 2026, according to a January forecast. In 2024, house prices increased after falling for the first time since 2019. One of the reasons for the price correction was the notable drop in transaction activity. Housing transactions picked up in 2024 and are expected to continue to grow until 2026. British Columbia, which is the most expensive province for housing, is projected to see the average house price reach 1.2 million Canadian dollars in 2026. Affordability in Vancouver Vancouver is the most populous city in British Columbia and is also infamously expensive for housing. In 2023, the city topped the ranking for least affordable housing market in Canada, with the average homeownership cost outweighing the average household income. There are a multitude of reasons for this, but most residents believe that foreigners investing in the market cause the high housing prices. Victoria housing market The capital of British Columbia is Victoria, where housing prices are also very high. The price of a single family home in Victoria's most expensive suburb, Oak Bay was 1.9 million Canadian dollars in 2024.

In 2023, the average price of real estate in China was approximately 10,438 yuan per square meter, representing a decrease from the previous year. Rising prices in the real estate market Since the 1998 housing reform, property prices in China have been rising continuously. Housing in the country is now often unaffordable, especially considering the modest per capita income of Chinese households. Shanghai and Beijing even have some of the most competitive real estate markets in the world. The rapid growth in housing prices has increased wealth among homeowners, while it also led to a culture of speculation among buyers and real estate developers. Housing was treated as investments, with owners expecting the prices to grow further every year. Risk factors The expectation of a steadily growing real estate market has created a property bubble and a potential debt crisis. As Chinese real estate giants, such as China Evergrande and Country Garden, operate by continuously acquiring land plots and initiating new projects, which often require substantial loans and investments, a slowdown in property demands or a decline in home prices can significantly affect the financial situation of these companies, putting China’s banks in a vulnerable position. In addition, due to a lack of regulations and monetary constraints, the long-term maintenance issues of high-rise apartments are also a concern to the sustainable development of China’s cities.