The average market risk premium in the United States decreased slightly to 5.5 percent in 2023. This suggests that investors demand a slightly lower return for investments in that country, in exchange for the risk they are exposed to. This premium has hovered between 5.3 and 5.7 percent since 2011. What causes country-specific risk? Risk to investments come from two main sources. First, inflation causes an asset’s price to decrease in real terms. A 100 U.S. dollar investment with three percent inflation is only worth 97 U.S. dollars after one year. Investors are also interested in risks of project failure or non-performing loans. The unique U.S. context Analysts have historically considered the United States Treasury to be risk-free. This view has been shifting, but many advisors continue to use treasury yield rates as a risk-free rate. Given the fact that U.S. government securities are available at a variety of terms, this gives investment managers a range of tools for predicting future market developments.

This statistic illustrates the average market risk premium used for selected countries worldwide in 2024. The average market risk premium used in Turkey was the highest and reached a value of 16.5 percent in that year.

Split into three categories (required, historical, expected), market risk premiums measure the rate of return investors expect on an investment over the risk that investment holds. In Europe, average market risk premiums (MRP) sit between five and ten percent.

Greece sees hike in MRP

Although it has a relatively high market risk premium, Greece has seen its rates significantly decrease since 2020. Greece also saw a higher than average return rate on risk free investments. The same correlation can be seen with Europe’s less risky countries for investment. With Germany seeing some of the lowest market risk premiums and risk free returns in Europe.

Required, historical and expected

Separating the three types of market risk premiums is straightforward. Required MRP’s differ between investors, as approaches to investment change and measure the rate of return needed for an investment to be made. Expected premiums look at the rate of return, and what they are calculated to come out as, while historical MRP’s look back over a period at the average rate of return that investors previously got in the past.

The average market risk premium in Canada was 5.2 percent in 2024. This means investors demanded an extra 5.2 Canadian dollars on a 100 Canadian dollar investment. This extra cost should compensate for the risk of an investment based in Canada. What causes risk? As far as country-specific factors are concerned, macroeconomic trends can cause risk. For example, the inflation rate in relation to other countries can change the relative value of an investment. Lower inflation in Canada could weaken the Canadian dollar, reducing the value of Canadian assets in terms of another currency, such as the euro or U.S. dollar. The Canadian context As a country, Canada has a fairly high national debt. Some economists point to this as an increased default risk, since debt servicing can become costly. However, most investors agree that Canada, as an advanced economy, is creditworthy and not at risk of defaulting. A better measure is to look at Canada’s risk premium in the context of interest rates from other countries. These deposit rates can be used as a baseline for the market risk premium of other countries, though they do not include all the factors that have been used to calculate this statistic.

The median market risk premium (MRP) used for selected countries in Europe as of 2023 was highest in Ukraine, at 23.2 percent, followed by Russia,Turkey, and Greece. The lowest median market risk premium was lowest from the Sweden, at 5.4 percent.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are three main concepts to MRP’s, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums.

United Kingdom shows little return for risk

Europe wide, Finland had one of the lowest MRP alongside Poland and Germany. Ukraine had average risk premiums of 22.7 percent in 2023. Having a lower market risk premium may seem bad, but for countries such as the UK and Germany where rates have been consistent for several years, it is because the market is stable as an environment for investment.

Risk free rates

Risk free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk free rates across Europe are relatively low.

The average market risk premium in South Africa increased to 8.3 percent in 2024. Market premium risk represents the difference between return on equities and a risk-free investment, which is normally associated with short-term government bonds. For comparison, the U.S. market premium risk amounted to 5.5 percent in the same year. Risk-free rate Most analysts consider the U.S. treasury rate to be the risk-free rate for the term of their investment, assuming the United States government will not default. Just as consumers in the Unites States get a credit rating, agencies such as Standard & Poor’s rate countries’ credit risks. Using these data, analysts compute the country-specific default risk, which in turn has an influence on the value of risk-free rate. What influences the return on equities? The economic factors such as political stability in a country, inflation rate, level of indebtment, trade deficit and investments have an influence on the activities of companies and their valuation on the stock exchanges. Apart from the economic cycle, the company’s operations itself, which are reflected in the results published in the financial reports, can boost or diminish the stock returns.

The risk-free rate is a theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk. This rate represents the minimum interest an investor would expect from a risk-free investment over a period of time. It is important to remember that the risk-free rate is only theoretical as all investments carry even the smallest of risks. A higher risk-free rate illustrates that even with a so-called "zero risk" investment, investors would want a higher return because of the countries associated investment risks. Average risk-free rate (RF) rate of investment and market risk premium As of 2023, Ukraine had the highest risk-free rate of the countries displayed with 30.6 percent among the European countries under observation. When it comes to the market risk premium, or the rate of return expected by investors over the risk that investments hold, Ukraine displayed a higher market risk premium during the same period. Investment in selected European countries SInce 2017, both the risk-free rate and average market risk premium in Turkey have been excessively high. Even more information on market risk premiums, average risk free rates, and required return on equity in selected European countries can be found in the report on market investments in Europe.

Graph and download economic data for Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond (THREEFYTP10) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-03-21 about term premium, 10-year, bonds, and USA.

Up until 2018, the average risk-free rate in Germany remained relatively stable at approximately 1.4 percent. The risk-free rate is a theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk. This rate represents the minimum interest an investor would expect from a risk-free investment over a period. It is important to remember that the risk-free rate is only theoretical as all investments carry even the smallest of risks. As of 2023, the risk-free rate in Germany was 2.5 percent.

Risk free rates in Europe

A higher risk-free rate illustrates that even with a so-called "zero risk" investment, investors would want a higher return because of the countries associated investment risks. In Europe, Ukraine and Turkey were among the countries with relatively higher average risk-free rates in 2023 compared to other European countries. The majority of European countries have RF rates under three percent in 2023.

Market risk premiums

Risk free rates reflect market risk premiums (MRP) with Germany displaying low MRP compared to other European countries. Split into three categories (required, historical, expected), market risk premiums measure the rate of return investors expect on an investment over the risk that investment holds. In Europe, average market risk premiums (MRP) sit between five and ten percent. During the last ten years, Germany has seen slight increase in market risk premiums.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

The average risk free rate (RF) used in Norway fluctuated between 2015 and 2023.The risk free rate is a theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk. This rate represents the minimum interest an investor would expect from a risk free investment over a period of time. It is important to remember that the risk free rate is only theoretical as all investments carry even the smallest of risks. As of 2023, the risk free rate in Norway was 3.4 percent.

In 2024, Miami was the housing market most at risk, with a real estate bubble index score of 1.79. Tokyo and Zurich followed close behind with 1.67 and 1.51, respectively. Any market with an index score of 1.5 or higher was deemed to be a bubble risk zone.

The Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), commonly known as "riesgo país" in Spanish speaking countries, is a weighted financial benchmark that measures the interest rates paid each day by a selected portfolio of government bonds from emerging countries. It is measured in base points, which reflect the difference between the return rates paid by emerging countries' government bonds and those offered by U.S. Treasury bills. This difference is defined as "spread". Which Latin American country has the highest risk bonds? As of September 19, 2024, Venezuela was the Latin American country with the greatest financial risk and highest expected returns of government bonds, with an EMBI spread of around 254 percent. This means that the annual interest rates paid by Venezuela's sovereign debt titles were estimated to be exponentially higher than those offered by the U.S. Treasury. On the other hand, Brazil's EMBI reached 207 index points at the end of August 2023. In 2023, Venezuela also had the highest average EMBI in Latin America, exceeding 40,000 base points. The impact of COVID-19 on emerging market bonds The economic crisis spawned by the coronavirus pandemic heavily affected the financial market's estimated risks of emerging governmental bonds. For instance, as of June 30, 2020, Argentina's EMBI spread had increased more than four percentage points in comparison to January 30, 2020. All the Latin American economies measured saw a significant increase of the EMBI spread in the first half of the year.

In 2024, the leading risk to businesses in the United States were cyber incidents according to a survey carried out among risk management experts. Almost 40 percent of the respondents cited cyber incidents as an important risk, and 33 percent believed that businesses were at risk due to business interruption, including supply chain disruption. These two risks were also the leading risks globally. Experts’ take on business risks Directors and risk managers in North America reported in a 2023 survey that the most significant business risks were cyberattack, data loss, and cyber extortion. These business risks (among others listed) incur increasing financial drawbacks which impact company spending, and may require insurance ahead of encountering risks. It is expected that by the year 2030, the directors and officers (D&O) liability insurance market in the U.S. will have grown to over 20 billion U.S. dollars. Is there insurance coverage for cyber crime? Cyber crime has become an increasingly common business risk factor globally, and as such, insurers have had to adapt to the public’s need to protect against cyberattacks. Currently, it is common for most major U.S. insurers to offer cybersecurity insurance policy options to their customers, both public and private. These policies protect customers against a wide variety of risks, including theft of or damage to IT assets, online banking identity theft, online shopping fraud, etc. In 2022, Chubb Ltd had the highest value direct cyber security premiums written in the United States.

Societe Generale's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio increased during the period from 2018 to 2022. The CET1 capital ratio of the bank was 13.49 percent in 2022, and the total capital ratio that year was 19.34 percent.

With the addition of new regulations set out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision reforms (Basel III), banks must now have a minimum common equity to 4.5% of risk weighted assets, after deductions. With the introduction of both a capital conservation buffer and countercyclical buffer, the total common equity ratio is now 7 percent as a standard

With the addition of new regulations set out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision reforms (Basel III), banks must now have a minimum common equity to 4.5% of risk weighted assets, after deductions. With the introduction of both a capital conservation buffer and countercyclical buffer, the total common equity ratio is now 7 percent as a standard. As of March 2023, ING Group's common equity tier 1 (CET1) available after meeting the bank’s minimum capital requirements was 14.8 percent, its tier 1 ratio 17 percent, while its total capital ratio stood at 19.8 percent.

With the addition of new regulations set out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision reforms (Basel III), banks must now have a minimum common equity to 4.5% of risk weighted assets, after deductions. With the introduction of both a capital conservation buffer and countercyclical buffer, the total common equity ratio is now 7 percent as a standard. As of December 2019, Deutsche Bank Group's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) was 13.6 percent.

With the addition of new regulations set out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision reforms (Basel III), banks must now have a minimum common equity to 4.5% of risk weighted assets, after deductions. With the introduction of both a A capital conservation buffer and countercyclical buffer, the total common equity ratio is now 7 percent as a standard. As of December 2019, Group BPCE's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) available after meeting the bank’s minimum capital requirements was 15.7 percent.