The average market risk premium in the United States remained at *** percent in 2025. This suggests that the returns that investors expected for their investrments remained the same as the previous year in that country, in exchange for the risk they are exposed to. This premium has hovered between *** and *** percent since 2011. What causes country-specific risk? Risk to investments come from two main sources. First, inflation causes an asset’s price to decrease in real terms. A 100 U.S. dollar investment with three percent inflation is only worth ** U.S. dollars after one year. Investors are also interested in risks of project failure or non-performing loans. The unique U.S. context Analysts have historically considered the United States Treasury to be risk-free. This view has been shifting, but many advisors continue to use treasury yield rates as a risk-free rate. Given the fact that U.S. government securities are available at a variety of terms, this gives investment managers a range of tools for predicting future market developments.

The average market risk premium used in Russia was the highest in 2025, reaching a value of ** percent in that year. The lowest market risk premiums used in that year were in France and Japan, at *** percent respectively.

The average market risk premium in Canada was *** percent in 2024. This means investors demanded an extra *** Canadian dollars on a 100 Canadian dollar investment. This extra cost should compensate for the risk of an investment based in Canada. What causes risk? As far as country-specific factors are concerned, macroeconomic trends can cause risk. For example, the inflation rate in relation to other countries can change the relative value of an investment. Lower inflation in Canada could weaken the Canadian dollar, reducing the value of Canadian assets in terms of another currency, such as the euro or U.S. dollar. The Canadian context As a country, Canada has a fairly high national debt. Some economists point to this as an increased default risk, since debt servicing can become costly. However, most investors agree that Canada, as an advanced economy, is creditworthy and not at risk of defaulting. A better measure is to look at Canada’s risk premium in the context of interest rates from other countries. These deposit rates can be used as a baseline for the market risk premium of other countries, though they do not include all the factors that have been used to calculate this statistic.

Graph and download economic data for Real Risk Premium (TENEXPCHAREARISPRE) from Jan 1982 to Oct 2025 about premium, real, and USA.

This statistic illustrates the median market risk premium used for selected countries worldwide in 2024. The median market risk premium used in Turkey was the highest and reached a value of **** percent in that year.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are ***** main concepts to MRP’s, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. In 2023, average market risk premiums in Turkey increased from the previous year. Turkey has second-highest MRP in Europe In 2023, Turkey had the third-highest average market risk premium rates in Europe. That year, right above Turkey, Russia and Ukraine recorded the highest MRP rates in Europe. At the other end of the scale was Netherlands and Switzerland, whose market risk premiums averaged almost quarter of those seen in Ukraine. Risk-free rates Risk-free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk-free rates across Europe were relatively low in 2023, with exceptions. The risk-free rate of investment in Turkey in 2023 was **** percent.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are three main concepts to MRPs, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums, and expected market risk premiums. United Kingdom shows little return for risk Europe-wide, Finland had one of the lowest MRP alongside Poland and Germany. Ukraine had average risk premiums of *** percent in 2025. Having a lower market risk premium may seem bad, but for countries such as the UK and Germany where rates have been consistent for several years, it is because the market is stable as an environment for investment. Risk-free rates Risk-free rates are closely associated with market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk-free rates across Europe are relatively low.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are * main concepts to MRPs, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. In 2025, average market risk premiums in Poland decreased from the previous year to reach *** percent. Greece and Ukraine with the highest MRP in Europe In 2023, Poland was relatively well-placed for average market risk premiums in Europe, compared to other countries. Countries with the highest MRP, and therefore of the highest investment risk included Ukraine and Russia. Poland's risk premiums reached *** percent. Ukraine risk premiums averaged at ** percent in 2023. Risk-free rates Risk-free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk-free rates across Europe (except for Turkey and Ukraine) were relatively low in 2023. The risk-free rate of investment in Poland was *** percent as of 2023.

Actual value and historical data chart for Brazil Risk Premium On Lending Prime Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate Percent

Replication data for manuscript "The Historical and Expected Equity Risk Premium in Spain: A Long-Run View, 1900-2020". We present revised estimates of the historical (ex post) equity risk premium and an original estimate of the expected (ex ante) premium for the Madrid stock market over a period of 120 years. The results are based on a new equity index, the H-IBEX (1900-1987), built on high-quality monthly data hand-collected from primary sources and methodologically aligned with the modern Spanish index, IBEX35. We also reconstructed an original weighted index of government bonds (1900-1987) which can be smoothly connected with recent data. Data include original series for equities, bonds and bills for the Madrid Stock Exchange from 1900 to 1987, at monthly and annual frequency, spliced with more recent data on equities (IBEX35) and bonds, to cover the period until 2020. Documentation includes three Excel files (monthly series, annual series and summary of annual data) and one Eviews13 file with main regressions.

This replication folder recreates all tables and figures in RFS article "The Market Risk Premium for Unsecured Consumer Credit Risk." For instructions, see the file "Instructions_ReplicationCode.pdf."

This dataset provides quarterly estimates of Serbia’s equity risk premium (ERP) decomposed into four structural components: sovereign risk (CRP), liquidity risk (LP), behavioral or sentiment risk (BP), and institutional quality risk (IQP). The series cover the period 2015Q1–2025Q3 and are expressed in percentage points, capturing how each premium contributes to Serbia’s total cost of equity.

The data were constructed from multiple reliable sources, including CEIC Data, the Belgrade Stock Exchange (BELEX), Bloomberg, Damodaran’s country risk spreadsheets, and governance indicators from the World Bank (WGI) and Transparency International (CPI). Each component is estimated using a transparent, data-driven empirical framework:

The sovereign risk premium (CRP) follows Damodaran’s volatility-adjusted spread method.

The liquidity premium (LP) is derived from principal component analysis of bid–ask spreads, turnover ratios, and Amihud illiquidity metrics.

The behavioral premium (BP) is estimated from an EGARCH-in-Mean model capturing volatility feedback in BELEX15 returns.

The institutional quality premium (IQP) aggregates standardized governance and corruption indices through principal component analysis.

The dataset supports the study “Decomposing Serbia’s Equity Risk Premium: Liquidity and Institutional Constraints in a Frontier Market” and enables replication or extension of the analysis for other emerging and frontier markets. It provides insight into how structural factors—rather than macroeconomic volatility alone—shape equity pricing in small, underdeveloped capital markets.

The accompanying figure (“Decomposition of Serbia’s ERP, 2015–2025”) visualizes the quarterly evolution of the four components.

Variables:

Date (Quarter, 2015Q1–2025Q3)

CRP – Sovereign Risk Premium (%)

LP – Liquidity Premium (%)

BP – Behavioral Premium (%)

IQP – Institutional Quality Premium (%)

Actual value and historical data chart for Kenya Risk Premium On Lending Prime Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate Percent

Split into three categories (required, historical, and expected), market risk premiums measure the rate of return investors expect on an investment over the risk that investment holds. In Europe, average market risk premiums (MRP) sit between four and 12 percent. Greece sees hike in MRP Although it has a relatively high market risk premium, Greece has seen its rates significantly decrease since 2020. Greece also saw a *** percent return rate on risk-free investments. The same correlation can be seen with Europe’s less risky countries for investment. With Germany seeing *** percent market risk premiums and *** percent risk-free returns in Europe. Required, historical, and expected Separating the three types of market risk premiums is straightforward. Required MRPs differ between investors, as approaches to investment change and measure the rate of return needed for an investment to be made. Expected premiums look at the rate of return and what they are calculated to come out as, while historical MRPs look back over a period at the average rate of return that investors previously got in the past.

Uzbekistan UZ: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 5.166 % pa in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.387 % pa for 2022. Uzbekistan UZ: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 6.843 % pa from Dec 2018 (Median) to 2023, with 6 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.409 % pa in 2019 and a record low of 5.166 % pa in 2023. Uzbekistan UZ: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Uzbekistan – Table UZ.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.;;

Risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) in Nigeria was reported at 9.278 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Nigeria - Risk premium on lending (prime rate minus treasury bill rate, %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on October of 2025.

Armenia AM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 1.253 % pa in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.131 % pa for 2022. Armenia AM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 7.526 % pa from Dec 2001 (Median) to 2023, with 23 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.934 % pa in 2005 and a record low of 1.131 % pa in 2022. Armenia AM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Armenia – Table AM.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.;;

Hong Kong HK: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 4.300 % pa in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.900 % pa for 2013. Hong Kong HK: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 4.100 % pa from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2016, with 23 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.100 % pa in 2003 and a record low of 2.000 % pa in 1997. Hong Kong HK: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Hong Kong SAR – Table HK.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Bulgaria BG: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 7.078 % pa in 2015. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.048 % pa for 2014. Bulgaria BG: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 7.048 % pa from Dec 2006 (Median) to 2015, with 9 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.377 % pa in 2011 and a record low of 6.140 % pa in 2007. Bulgaria BG: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Bulgaria – Table BG.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.;;

The average market risk premium used in Switzerland fluctuated between 2011 and 2024. As of 2024, the average market risk premium in Switzerland stood at *** percent.